理解恐怖分子的行为激进化:一个整合性分析框架

当前在对恐怖分子激进化的分析中存在“激进化是否遵循线性的发展道路”和“思想激进化与行为激进化的区分是否必要”的争议,导致对激进化的理解存在困惑。在坚持非线性组织方式、思想与行为二分法的基础上,构建了一个分析恐怖分子行为激进化的整合性分析框架,即对经验研究中的推动、拉动和中介因素进行了区分和统合。推动因素表现为个体或群体的失控、焦虑、羞辱、不满、怨恨等负面情绪,拉动因素表现为恐怖组织提供的“圣战”、重建“哈里发国”、“末日决战”等极端主义意识形态;而人际网络、虚拟网络与大众传媒在行为激进化中发挥着中介因素的作用。理解恐怖分子的行为激进化具有一定的理论与现实意义。就理论意义而言,可以借此探究恐怖主义的产生原因。就现实意义而言,从负面情绪、意识形态、网络与大众传媒三个方面对恐怖主义进行整合性治理,能提高恐怖主义全球治理的有效性。     

Terrorists going transnational: rethinking the role of states in the case of AQIM and Boko Haram

This study moves beyond theories emphasising “state failure” as the cause for terrorist “spill-over”. The aim is to offer new theoretical and empirical considerations concerning the determinants of terrorist groups’ geographical strategies. The main argument this article presents is that transnationality for nationalistic terrorist organisations can be costly. This is the case due to the mobility, social and strategic costs of operating beyond controlled territories. Hence, the article proposes an interpretation of these decisions as being mainly generated by states’ counterterrorism strategies. Using data gathered from the GTD Dataset and secondary sources such as specialised reports and strategic documents, the article explores the argument by presenting observations and empirical findings on two groups, AQIM and Boko Haram.     

Alessandro Orsini. Anatomy of the Red Brigades: The Religious Mind-Set of Modern Terrorists

ABSTRACT

Those who study terrorism are familiar with the claim that suicide attacks are the most lethal form of terrorism today. Suicide attacks kill more people on average than non-suicide attacks, thereby justifying why terrorist organizations use this costly method of attack and explaining in part why suicide tactics have proliferated. However, extant empirical support for this claim is largely insufficient, focusing only on macro-level analysis of lethality data. Using data from the Global Terrorism Database, this study examines variation in lethality among suicide and non-suicide attacks based on geographic location, attack type, and target/victim type. It also introduces a new metric—the lethality ratio—to measure costs and benefits of attacks in terms of lives lost. It finds that, although suicide tactics are generally more lethal than non-suicide tactics, they also come at greater costs to the organization. This analysis also finds behavior that is inconsistent with the premise that terrorist groups are focused on maximizing lethality while reducing costs in all cases; that despite certain advantages, suicide attacks may remain a suboptimal tactic from the perspective of the terrorist group; and that additional criteria may help explain why suicide tactics are used.     

In the wake of revolution: Eastern Europe in the 1990s

Summary

A ‘new world order’ and a ‘Europe whole and free’ are phrases that epitomize the hopeful rhetoric born of East European revolutions in 1989. In the three years since we were awed by the courage of citizens disgusted with communist party rule, and surprised by the rapidity of such regimes’ demise, socio‐economic and political realities have dimmed hopes and constrained expectations. The work of building free governments and free markets after decades of neglect and abuse faces East Europeans in the 1990s and beyond.

The dangers suggested above are not hyperbole, and represent real and present threats to the hopes of Poles, Romanians, and the other people, for better futures. Comparisons across the region are much less valid than at any time in the last half century. Nevertheless, the goals of post‐communist leaders ‐ security, democracy and market ‐ face similar extraordinary challenges that can easily derail these processes. Americans and our longstanding allies cannot ensure the survival and further development of East European democracy, but we must certainly be more engaged in helping them help themselves.     

Strengthening civil society: Participatory action research in a militarised state

ABANTU for Development embarked on a regional programme to strengthen civil society capacities for engaging with policy from a gender perspective. An early programme activity involved an in-depth study of NGO capacities for policy engagement which ABANTU carried out in Nigeria during the recent period of military rule. In keeping with ABANTU's commitments as a regional human resources network dedicated to promoting development and gender equality from an African perspective, the local research team used a participatory action methodology to gather and interpret the findings in a way that privileged local NGO perspectives and understandings of gender and policy. The exercise generated hitherto unavailable information and experiential case study material, and simultaneously identified and involved a core group of NGOs in the development and planning of the subsequent training programme. More importantly, it also furnished the regional training network with an understanding of indigenous cultures and local gender politics. These were found to be infused with diverse local cultural dynamics, as well as with the contradictory legacies of the military's state-driven programmes for women, both of which constrain the extent of gender activism, especially when this is monitored through instances of direct policy engagement.     

From revolution to reform and back: EU-Security sector reform in Ukraine

ABSTRACT

Security Sector Reform (SSR) is an important element of the EU’s external intervention toolkit. In an increasingly uncertain global security environment, the EU has currently stepped up its SSR endeavours. However, success of these efforts largely depends on the EU’s capabilities in navigating complex context-specific challenges. In particular the EU needs to be able to simultaneously address the functional and normative-societal imperatives that underpin SSR. This article considers the case of the EU’s ongoing SSR mission to Ukraine – the European Union Advisory Mission (EUAM). It asks, what are the unique context-specific challenges faced by EUAM in Ukraine? How do these challenges influence the EU’s ability to satisfy both the normative-societal imperative of SSR through the EUAM? This article mainly relies on secondary data, and applies a “Whole of Society” approach to conflict prevention and peacebuilding (WOS). Amidst a situation of ongoing multiple armed conflicts and EU-Russian relations of mutual dependence, a key finding is that the mandate of the mission has become more narrow and exclusive by sacrificing vertical coherence and the normative-societal imperative. We recommend EUAM adopt a more “revolutionary” approach to SSR, by adhering to key SSR normative principles so that the mission can overcome the challenges of the unique reform environment of Ukriane. This will also make it able to contribute more meaningfully to the wider reform process in an effective and sustainable manner.     

The primacy of political security: contentious politics and insecurity in the Tunisian revolution

The removal of Ben Ali's regime in Tunisia signalled the start of the Arab Spring. The abrupt nature of the regime change raises questions about why it happened in the way it did. This article examines the contextual factors that precipitated the regime change through the lens of political security. The aim is to examine how political insecurity in society led to the emergence of opposition sufficiently organized to unseat Ben Ali. The paper develops a framework to consider how the loss of legitimacy by the regime opened the space for opposition. Attempts to restrict opposition failed to address underlying claims, leaving the way open for the opposition to unite following the self-immolation of Mohammed Bouazizi.     

Knowledge to action: Evaluation for learning in a multi-organisational global partnership

Many organisations do not learn. There are many reasons for this, and a lack of donor support tends to be cited as one of the greatest. But this is not the primary reason for a lack of learning. We fail to learn because we are unable to see the importance of doing so. We become so embroiled in our busy-ness and our self-inflicted demands for action, that we have ceased to value learning. And we have lost sight of the fact that without learning our action is doomed to ineffectiveness. If we are about development and cannot measure how we are doing, how can we develop a rigorous and effective practice?     

VAWG mainstreaming in access to justice programmes: a framework for action

If we are finally to end violence against women and girls (VAWG), then this commitment needs to be embedded into all development programmes, regardless of sectorial focus. Women and girls are vulnerable across the board and recognition of this reality is the first step. This article proposes a VAWG mainstreaming framework that addresses how to centralise a VAWG lens into development programming, irrespective of programmatic priorities. The article outlines the need for such a lens and presents the approach through a number of stages. The model is then applied to two programme areas, microfinance and HIV/AIDS, demonstrating its applicability across development issues.     

Counter-terrorism in Europe: the elusive search for order

Many experts underscore a firm difference between (US) American and European approaches to combating terrorism. Other scholars contend that, since 11 September 2001, European governments have emulated the USA by “securitising” immigration and trampling on the civil and human rights of immigrants of Muslim heritage. Still other analysts discern within Europe distinct national styles of counterterrorism such as French assimilation and deportation versus British multiculturalism and conciliation. This article finds neither a coherent policy strategy nor an unmistakable political consensus in Europe regarding counterterrorism. Instead, a comparative analysis reveals a jumble of ethically inconsistent and practically contradictory measures.