Bringing in the rogues: political violence,the British government and Sinn Fein

The article explores the relationship between the British government and the Irish Republican movement. In contrast to the established view, it argues that the British government had never had any objection to the inclusion of Republicans into a political settlement, and that – therefore – there was no need for any significant changes in government policy during the 1990s. Far from being an obstacle to inclusion, the British government's political strategy not only provided an incentive for the IRA to cease its military campaign, but also the opportunity to follow it up with an equitable political process, resulting in the Belfast Agreement.     

Mauritania: Political Parties,Neo-patrimonialism and Democracy

This article takes issue with those analyses of ‘developmental democracy’ which treat popular participation as a clamorous inconvenience to be managed in the interests of economic efficiency. Instead it asks what follows from prioritizing participation both as a defining feature of democracy, and as an integral part of what is meant by development.

The analysis is developed in two parts. The first contrasts the narratives of popular and of liberal democracy, showing how they come to different conclusions about participation and its role in development. But it also argues there are potential complementarities. These were obscured when socialist ‘people's democracies’ were (misleadingly) seen as popular alternatives to liberal democracy. Since the end of the cold war, however, the focus has been on democratizing liberal democracy, to ensure it is responsive to the needs of citizens, as active participants in development and not just targets of state policy, rather than on whole system alternatives.

The second part reviews the experience of popular democratic experiments in Tanzania and Nicaragua, which sought to extend participation beyond the confines of representative democracy, and to link it to participatory development. It might be read as a requiem for their apparent failure. But their vicissitudes also raise broader questions: about the contradictions between popular participation and ‘people's democracy'as a system of rule; concerning the structures and procedures (elections, political parties, civil society bodies, mass organizations and so on) through which participation is organised; and about the problems of harmonizing participatory development with the management of complex national economies.     

奥巴马政府的综合性和平理念与中东和平进程

为改变中东局势恶化和美国在阿拉伯国家受损形象,奥巴马提出综合性和平的构想和政策,即:推动巴勒斯坦建国,敦促巴、以履行和平路线图职责,改善美国同叙利亚和黎巴嫩的关系,说服沙特等中东其他国家共同参与,以实现中东永久和平。然而,巴以矛盾能否调和,阿拉伯国家能否重树对美国的信任和信心,政策构想能否得到以色列和美国内犹太人财团的认知以及伊斯兰激进派的认可,都有待观察。     

Democracy and Islam: Implications for Civilizational Conflict and the Democratic Peace

The extent to which democracy and Islam are mutually exclusive is tested empirically with implications for civilizational conflict and the democratic peace. Three measures of democracy are used: a political rights index, an index of liberal democracy, and a measure based on institutionalization. Environmental variables such as sea borders and rainfall that minimize external threat to democratic systems are found to predict better to the more rudimentary political rights index, while cultural variables, including Islam in a negative direction, are more clearly associated with liberal democracy. The measure of democratic institutionalization behaves in a manner intermediate between the two. Divergence of the structures of explanation for these measures suggests that conclusions concerning the likelihood of war between democracies can depend on the specific index of democracy employed. The absence of a significant negative association between Islam and the political rights index under controlled conditions suggests that the probability of civilizational conflict is low.     

Causes of Peace: Democracy, Interdependence, and International Organizations, 1885–1992

Previous studies provide strong evidence for the Kantian theory of peace, but a satisfactory evaluation requires establishing the causal influence of the variables. Here we focus on the reciprocal relations between economic interdependence and interstate conflict, 1885–1992. Using distributed-lags analyses, we find that economically important trade does have a substantively important effect in reducing dyadic militarized disputes, even with extensive controls for the influence of past conflict. The benefit of interdependence is particularly great in the case of conflict involving military fatalities. Militarized disputes also cause a reduction in trade, as liberal theory predicts. Democracy and joint membership in intergovernmental organizations, too, have im-portant pacific benefits; but we find only limited support for the role of costly signals in establishing the liberal peace. We find no evidence that democratization increases the incidence of interstate disputes; and contrary to realists' expectations, allies are not less conflict prone than states that are not allied. Democracies and states that share membership in many international organizations have higher levels of trade, but allies do not when these influences are held constant.     

联合国与中东和平进程

联合国是二战后全球性的国际组织 ,在国际事务中所起的作用举足轻重。本文主要论述了联合国对巴勒斯坦问题态度的演变 ,联合国被美国排挤出中东和平进程以及在中东问题上的困境与出路 ,揭示了中东和平进程出现逆转的国际因素。     

War, Peace, and the Invisible Hand: Positive Political Externalities of Economic Globalization

Studies of signaling in international relations reveal how punishing bluffing ex post through domestic audience costs or opposition groups facilitates credible ex ante communication among states and reduces the impetus toward war. Global integration of economic markets may also reduce uncertainty by making talk costly ex ante. Autonomous global capital can respond dramatically to political crises. To the degree that globalization forces leaders to choose between pursuing competitive political goals and maintaining economic stability, it reveals the intensity of leaders' preferences, reducing the need for military contests as a method of identifying mutually acceptable bargains. Asymmetric integration can dampen the pacific effects of globalization, but asymmetry does not in itself exacerbate dispute behavior. We present the theory and offer preliminary corroborative tests of implications of the argument on postwar militarized disputes.     

巴以和平曙光再现,和平道路仍然曲折艰难

布什总统第二任期内会更多关注巴、以冲突。温和派阿巴斯接替阿拉法特,巴勒斯坦进入后阿拉法特时代。沙龙与工党组成联合政府。中东再现和平曙光。巴以恢复和谈还须克服障碍。和平进程将是脆弱而艰难的,出现反复甚至逆转的可能性始终存在。     

The Clandestine Political Economy of War and Peace in Bosnia

Most contemporary intrastate military conflicts have a criminalized dimension: In various ways and to varying degrees they use smuggling networks and criminal actors to create and sustain the material basis for warfare. Despite its importance, the criminalized side of intrastate war and its legacy for postwar reconstruction is not a central focus of analysis in most scholarly accounts of armed conflict. A detailed examination of the Bosnian conflict illustrates the explanatory usefulness of a "bottom up," clandestine political economy approach to the study of war and post-war reconstruction. Drawing on interviews with former military leaders, local and international officials, and in-country observers, I argue that the outbreak, persistence, termination, and aftermath of the 1992–1995 war cannot be explained without taking into account the critical role of smuggling practices and quasi-private criminal combatants. The article suggests the need for greater bridging and broadening of the study of security, political economy, and crime.     

菲南和平进程的回顾与思考

为了和平解决菲南穆斯林分离主义问题，菲律宾政府与穆斯林反政府武装“摩洛民族解放阵线”先后签署两个和平协议，与“摩洛伊斯兰解放阵线”也进行了长时间的和平谈判，但仍未实现菲南的和平。原因在于菲律宾政府与穆斯林组织在实现和平的目标方面存在重大分歧；双方已签署的和平协议未能成功实施，削弱了人们对和平进程的信心；此外，也未能形成一个达成和实施和平协议的有利环境。     

哈马斯与中东和平进程

哈马斯是中东地区一个有代表性的伊斯兰激进组织。其激进的民族主义及其在阿拉伯穆斯林世界具有的独特地位与影响 ,使本已困难重重的中东和平进程更加扑朔迷离。“9·11事件”后 ,随着美国施行全球性的反恐怖主义战略 ,哈马斯的命运将会如何 ,本文对此也作了初步探析。     

Conquest and Regime Change: An Evolutionary Model of the Spread of Democracy and Peace

Whereas the literature on the democratic peace tends to treat the phenomenon as a causal law, we follow Immanuel Kant in interpreting it as a macro-historical process that expanded from a small number of democracies to about 50% of all states. In order to account for this development, we introduce an agent-based model that combines a natural-selection logic with an adaptive mechanism of regime change. The latter is implemented as an empirically calibrated, contextual rule that prompts democratization as an S-shaped function of the democratic share of a state's immediate neighborhood. A similar transition rule governs regime change in the opposite direction. The computational results show that regime change and collective security are necessary to produce realistic trajectories of democratization at the systemic level.     

Promoting Nuclear Disarmament and the Non-Proliferation Process,Safeguarding World Peace

Peace is the shared aspiration and permanent pursuit of the human society. In the long river of human history, peace has brought prosperity and progress to humanity, but at times, it has deserted us and has become a distant desire or even dream of human race. There are different threats and challenges to peace. Among them, there is the nuclear weapon which has become the Sword of Damocles hanging over us and letting people living in the horror of nuclear weapon ever since its first test of bombing.     

Conflict Resolution: Lessons from the Dayton Peace Process

The Bosnian War (1992–1995) was one of the most brutal conflicts in Europe since the end of World War II. Thirty‐four cease‐fires failed to produce peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina until the late American diplomat, Richard Holbrooke, brokered one that set the stage for a series of negotiations—starting in the Balkans and ending in Dayton, Ohio. The Dayton peace process finally terminated the Bosnian War. The interplay of military intervention by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and diplomacy by the United States was remarkable. This article highlights thirteen conflict resolution lessons or “Holbrookeisms” that can be learned from the Dayton peace process. Some aspects of Holbrooke's approach toward the peace process helped him to successfully mediate an end to the Bosnian War, while others contributed toward some of the existing cleavages in today's Bosnian society.     

印巴恢复和平进程：动因与制约

始自2004年的印巴和平进程切实地改善了双边关系,但2008年11月孟买恐怖事件后和平进程被中断。目前,印巴双方均有意恢复和平进程,就其原因有印巴对各自国情的考虑、双方民间外交的推动、南亚区域合作的启发、美国推动印巴和解。然而,在重启和平进程的问题上印巴还面临一些障碍,如孟买事件的调查与指控、克什米尔问题、极端势力破坏、印度反对党的压力和巴基斯坦军方的犹豫态度。     

Delegation of Broad National Alliance for Independence,Peace and Democracy of Japan Visits China

正At the invitation of the Chinese Association for International Understanding(CAFIU),the delegation of Broad National Alliance for Independence,Peace and Democracy of Japan headed by Yoshida Shin visited China from February 4 to 7.During the visit,CAFIU Vice President Liu Hongcai met with the delegation,speaking positively of the efforts     

巴基斯坦恐怖组织中的中东因素探析

巴基斯坦与中东伊斯兰恐怖组织之间保持着密切的联系渠道，亦即反苏伊斯兰圣战组织渠道、沙特和伊朗渠道、中亚渠道以及克什米尔渠道，双方还保持着密切的人员、资金和军火交流途径。巴基斯坦同中东恐怖组织的联系不是单向的，而是双向的。近年来，巴基斯坦开始向中东地区“输出”恐怖主义，并对中国的边疆安全构成了新的挑战。