The EU’s Korea relationship: enlargement effects

As the EU was expanding in 2004, a phase of new development between the EU and North Korea could have been expected. However, it was argued that the EU’s position towards North Korea is likely to remain unchanged. Most of the existing studies ascribed the reactive attitude of the EU to the distinctiveness of the recent enlargement. The accession of a large number of new members, which are considered to have diverse foreign policy interests and perception, is likely to add up to the already overwhelming number of problems in the governance of the EU. Thus, the EU’s policy towards North Korea would rather concentrate on a soft security approach. However, this paper contends that the existing explanation is not exhaustive, but that the implications relating to the conception of smallness, which is relevant to most of the new member states, should be included in the parameters of analysis in order to generate a more comprehensive and balanced view where the future relationship between the EU and North Korea is concerned. The preliminary draft of this paper was presented at the International Conference of the Korean Society of Contemporary European Studies, November, 25, 2005, at Seoul, South Korea. I appreciate all the comments and helpful advice made at the presentation.

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The Pandora’s box: democratization and rule of law in Turkey

A prominent question in the literature on democracy is concerned with the role of external factors in stimulating the process of democratization and uploading rule of law. This paper tackles the following questions: How does the political conditionality of an international organization—the EU in this case—stimulate democracy in third countries? Equally important, does conditionality always have a positive impact and could it be possible to witness the EU undermining democracy in an unexpected manner? This paper addresses these questions through an analysis of the Turkish democracy in the light of its accession to the EU and through an application of the EU membership conditionality by looking at rule of law in Turkey. The general contention in the political conditionality literature is that the EU enables an acceding country to adopt its democratic principles, and facilitates transition to democracy, while strengthening rule of law. However, the Turkish transformation seems to challenge this contention. This paper proposes that the EU’s political conditionality in bringing about political transformation in Turkey as a membership precondition unexpectedly illuminated the underlying anti-democratic tendencies and tensions in Turkish politics. The democratization process in Turkey since 1999, partly stimulated by the EU, has opened up a Pandora’s box releasing the conflict between the secularists and religious conservatives in Turkey that has long been suppressed. This paper analyzes these cleavages through the prism of EU political conditionality with regards to rule of law.     

The Evolution of Political Violence: The Case of Somalia’s Al-Shabaab

This research investigates the development and expansion of the al-Shabaab movement in Somalia from 2000 to 2013. Initially a marginal player in Somalia, by 2013 al-Shabaab had transformed into the most formidable armed opposition to challenge the nascent Somali government and its allies. During this time period they administered territory domestically, while expanding their tactical repertoire and geographic scope of attacks. After analyzing the historical conditions (2000–2006) from which al-Shabaab emerged, I explore the evolution of this organization through the use of historical process tracing. This entails looking for critical junctures on a global, national, and local level that had a dramatic impact on the future trajectory of the insurgency. The results show that harsh foreign interventions had many deleterious consequences, acting as an initial impetus for armed resistance, while also acting as a continuous source of controversy which al-Shabaab exploited to gain new recruits. Moreover, irreconcilable intra-organizational schisms also contributed to altering the future organizational decisions made by al-Shabaab. The culmination of these results engage and expand the theory of categorical terrorism, offering observations to help scholars and policy makers alike begin to re-conceptualize ways to study terrorism and political violence.     

The puzzle of populism in Iran’s electoral politics

The article examines the impact of an unsettled electoral market and evolving political predispositions on the rise and fall of populism in Iran. The article argues that the absence of a polarized electoral contest between reformists and conservatives paved the way for the victory of the populist candidate in the 2005 presidential election in Iran, while the deep economic recession resulting from conservative administration policies created a long-term political experience which influenced voters and led to the victory of the pragmatist candidate in the 2013 and 2017 elections. Quantitative analysis indicates that in the 2005 election, the struggle between conservatives and reformists did not impact the competition between candidates, and consequently depoliticized attitudes, for example distributive demands, ideology, and anti-ruling elite sentiment gained significance, whereas polarization between conservatives and a coalition of reformists and pragmatists enhanced the role of partisanship and triggered the fall of populism in the 2013 election.     

The politics of foreign debt in Latin America a study of the debtors’ cartel

This analysis of the foreign debt problem in Latin America shows that this economic burden is onerous and will not be reduced in the short run. The region's political leaders perceived that collective bargaining could increase their bargaining leverage with foreign lenders and could produce more advantageous repayment schedules for most nations. However, despite verbal backing and the economic promise of collective bargaining, a debtors’ cartel failed to materialize. Evaluations of the political dynamics in key nations anticipated creditors. This analysis also shows that the debtors’ cartel failed because collective bargaining did not gain domestic political support. Foreign influence was tangential to the outcome. Given this political climate, the chances for a revival of collective bargaining are very slim.     

The Baltic predicament in the shadow of Russia’s war in Ukraine

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has once again reinvigorated the debate about the likelihood of conflict spreading into NATO’s frontline states, namely the Baltic republics. This article argues that somewhat paradoxically, the Baltics currently find themselves in both the best of times and the worst of times. On the one hand, with each “turn of the screw”—Georgia in 2008, Ukraine in 2014 and 2022—Moscow has ensured a greater allied presence across the Baltics. Still, despite this and Russia’s substantial losses incurred in the war, the Baltic lawmakers will not write off Russia as a military threat any time soon.     

The Loneliness of Israel. The Jewish State’s Status in International Relations

Israel’s international position has declined in recent years. Even if its relationship with the EU – and even more with the US – is solid, there have been frictions that are not likely to disappear in the years to come. Its relations with other states, from Middle Eastern countries to India and China, are either highly problematic or have not improved despite the Israeli government’s efforts. It is Israel’s policy in the Occupied Territories that is being increasingly criticised and this is creating a sort of ‘vicious circle’ in Israel: the critiques reinforce Israeli’s ‘bunker mentality’, strengthening the ethno-nationalist character of Israeli politics and society and causing de-democratisation, and this, in turn, brings on more international isolation.     

The Emperor’s new clothes? Perceptions of the EU’s strategic partnerships in Asia

Asia Europe Journal - In order to adapt to a changing global order, the European Union (EU) has established an important mechanism for cooperating with some of the world’s most influential...     

Non-Alignment and Beyond: India’s Interest in Latin America, 1961–1972

ABSTRACT

Between 1961 and 1972, Latin America came to capture India’s diplomatic imagination. Officials within India’s Ministry of External Affairs identified strengthened ties with the region as a way to augment, restrain, and transcend the Non-Aligned Movement, further India’s international prestige and political influence, spread Indian culture, and bolster India’s economy. India’s interest in Latin America climaxed after Prime Minister Indira Gandhi prioritised the region and Pakistan strengthened diplomatic relations with Panama in autmn 1967. Yet uncertainty over the internal realities of Latin America hindered any Indian pivot. In the end, India’s aspirations for Latin America failed to materialise.     

The role of Russian gas in China’s energy supply strategy

China’s gas industry has witnessed a massive expansion and Chinese energy planners envisage a huge development of natural gas in China until 2030. This growth requires large-scale imports of gas in the coming two decades. This article discusses the role of Russian gas exports in China’s gas expansion. It analyses China’s natural gas growth in the coming decades, based on the projections of China’s domestic production capacity and the consequent necessity of large-scale pipeline gas imports from Russia, the Central Asian Republics, and Myanmar. Included in the projections are LNG imports from Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Australia, North America, and East Africa. The article explains how Russia is trying to avoid depending exclusively on the China market by using the options of gas exports to Korea and Japan. However, it concludes that Russia’s pipeline gas exports to China will play an important role in China’s energy supply plan in the coming decades.     

Machiavelli’s Science of Statecraft: The Diplomacy and Politics of Disorder

This paper calls into question the extent to which ethical dualism, broadly conceived as raison d’ état, does justice to Machiavelli’s understanding and practice of the diplomatic arts. Arguments are advanced herein that Machiavelli did not so much abandon morality as he sought, through the examples of Rome and antiquity, to find a different remedy for the disorder and violence rampant in the Italy of his day. Machiavelli’s reports in the diplomatic service of Florence illustrate qualities and skills of the diplomat often at odds with the caricature of the immoral statesman.     

Look at the Direction of US-Latin America Relations from Bush’s Visit to Latin America

From March 8th to 14th, 2007, US President George W. Bush paid an visit to five Latin American states of Brazil, Uruguay, Colombia, Guatemala and Mexico. This visit, with the largest number of Latin American states visited and the longest duration since Bush came to office, was an important diplomatic move that demonstrates the US's determination to regain its "backyard" as well as major policy adjustments of the US towards Latin America.     

The Mahathir effect in Malaysia’s 2018 election: the role of credible personalities in regime transitions

The 14th Malaysian General Elections (Pilihanraya Umum, 14, PRU 14) in 2018 proved to be a watershed election as Barisan Nasional (National Front, BN) lost power for the first time in history. Pakatan Harapan (Alliance of Hope, PH), led by former BN leader and Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, captured the majority of parliamentary seats. This article analyses the impact of Mahathir specifically, and credible personalities in general, in unseating dominant one-party regimes. I argue that credible personalities are vital in causing transitions in dominant one-party systems. Explanations on transitions from authoritarian regimes in the literature have typically revolved around incumbent weakness and opposition strength. While dissatisfaction toward the regime is a necessary condition for transition, it is not sufficient. Personalities which can adequately appeal to the masses are important to bridge the credibility gap which the opposition may otherwise have to grapple with. Mahathir’s presence in the opposition was crucial to PH’s victory, as he provided the credibility boost which the opposition needed. This was particularly important for Malay voters. This study is situated within the literature on parties, elections and democratization.     

The Grand Strategy of Militant Clients: Iran’s Way of War

This article argues that militant clients should be understood as a pillar of Iran's grand strategy and an extension of its military power. The article examines why Iran has relied on militant clients since the 1979 revolution and the benefits and costs of its client approach. In evaluating these issues, it identifies five main areas where Iran has gained from its client strategy: 1) maintaining independence from the West; 2) successfully exporting its religio-political worldview; 3) extending its military reach and power; 4) reducing political costs of its foreign activities; and 5) establishing needed regional allies. It further identifies five main dangers that Iran faces by continuing its strategic behavior: 1) increased pressure from the United States and a broader US military regional footprint; 2) more unified regional adversaries; 3) the risk of unintended escalation with the United States and regional adversarial states; and 4) enduring regional instability and insecurity     

The ROK’s Perception of China’s Role: Interviews with the ROK General Public

The ROK general public universally believes that China will become a member of the G-2 or will surpass the United States as the primary world power. However, they are concerned about China’s rise, believing that it will pose a threat to Korea’s national interests.     

The daiku phenomenon: social and cultural influences of Beethoven’s Ninth Symphony in Japan

In the rude awakening of western colonisations in Asia during the nineteenth century, Japan drastically embraced the ‘better and more modern’ western values towards the end of that century—which began with the Meiji Restoration (Meiji Ishin [ ]). Since the nation began frantically learning everything Western—while keeping its traditional values at heart, Beethoven’s Ninth Symphony ‘Choral,’ or daiku as it is known in Japan, has been present throughout the turbulent twentieth century. The social and cultural phenomenon known as nenmatsu-no daiku ([ ] A countless number of annual year-end Beethoven’s Ninth Symphony concerts held throughout Japan each year.) is the subject under scrutiny in this paper. Japan’s almost desperate pursue toward westernization and the much-debated Japanese cultural trait, the ‘groupism’ mentality would make the existence of the daiku phenomenon appear to the bewildered outsider as a horrendous mix of the two elements, but is that simply so? Evidently, the sudden influx of western cultures and ideologies from Europe and the U.S.A. is in great part accountable for the continual and prevalent existence of the daiku in modern Japan. However, we must not overlook the underlying home-grown factors, which have kept the phenomenon well and alive even today. This paper intends to discuss the historical background leading to this phenomenon and present a summary of what daiku is, giving examples of different types of performances as a result of the phenomenon. An attempt will also be given to examine the significance Beethoven’s Ninth has for the Japanese in both social and cultural contexts.     

“The pluses of pulses”: haricot beans and women’s empowerment in Ethiopia

This practical note demonstrates the role that haricot beans play in assisting women to become food and nutrition secure, to generate income, and to have sustainable livelihoods that are resilient to shocks. Based on qualitative research among female and male beneficiaries of a pulse innovation project implemented in southern Ethiopia, the note provides a summary of the critical voices of farmers, and the role that haricot beans play in empowering women. It also outlines some of the challenges that the project faced in achieving its empowerment objectives.     

The Assassination of King Abdallah: The First Political Assassination in Jordan: Did It Truly Threaten the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan?

King Abdallah was assassinated as a result of his relationship with Arab leaders. The opposition included three leaders: the Mufti Hajj Amin al-Huseini, King Faruq and Ibn Saud. Jordanian intelligence knew about the conspiracy and warned King Abdallah, but he decided to visit Jerusalem as originally planned and there he was assassinated. After the assassination on 20 July 1951, the Jordanian government was faced with two dangers that threatened the Hashemite regime in Jordan. The first, a Palestinian rebellion the purpose of which was the replacement of the Hashemite regime with a Palestinian one; the second an invasion of Jordan by either Syria or Saudi Arabia or both countries together, and their possible control of it. However, the dangers turned out to be neither tangible nor serious and the Hashemite regime remained in power.