Weapons as political symbolism: the role of US tactical nuclear weapons in Europe

This study evaluates the role of tactical nuclear weapons (TNWs) for NATO today. Historically, TNWs fulfill five objectives. First, they provide a deterrent by denial capability. Second, TNWs serve to deter TNWs by other countries. Third, as the most ‘useable’ of nuclear weapons, they offer militaries solutions to a small target set of hardened targets. Fourth, they bridge the interface between nuclear and conventional forces, maintaining linkage up the ladder of escalation. Fifth, they serve as a powerful political symbol of an extended deterrent commitment. While the perception is that their utility for NATO in plausible European contingencies is low, we argue that there is variation in the political and military roles of TNWs. We submit that, in general, the first role has lost its significance but the other objectives remain relevant to NATO's present political circumstances, especially as a symbol of the transatlantic relationship and as a safeguard against Russian belligerence. Accordingly, TNWs remain a significant part of NATO's capabilities and should remain deployed in Europe.     

9·11事件对美国非洲政策的影响

9·11事件虽主要涉及和波及美国的中东政策，但在对非政策上也有一定程度的影响，这主要体现在两个方面。首先，从反恐角度出发，美国在非洲是又打又拉，打拉结合。布什政府从去年初上台以来，在继承克林顿对非政策的同时，已明显表现出脱离和轻视非洲事务的倾向。……     

Mismatched Deterrents: Preventing the Use of Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Weapons

The basic logic of graduated deterrence worked fairly well against the Soviet Union, as each level of aggression was to be deterred by a matching response. But this logic has now been undermined vis-à-vis future rogue state chemical and biological attacks by the spread of dual-use technologies that can be diverted to weapons, and by decisions of the United States and other democracies to forego possession of chemical or biological weapons. This article identifies some of the serious difficulties of alternative approaches to deterring chemical or biological attacks, ranging from nuclear escalation to a reliance on supposed American advantages in conventional weapons. Lumping chemical and biological weapons together with nuclear weapons into a new category of weapons of mass destruction is a very imperfect solution.     

Gene Technology,Biological Weapons,and the Security of Science

This article addresses the security challenge posed by laboratory research involving genetic modification of microorganisms that could be applied for both benign and malevolent purposes. The authors propose that, for biological arms control purposes, a global governance culture is required to manage the security risks inherent in such research while minimizing scientific opportunity costs.     

亚太地区禁止生物武器的进程

亚太地区现在仍存在生物武器扩散的危险.特别是随着生物技术和遗传工程的发展,违禁生产生物武器的可能性比过去增加了.由于生产和获得生物武器要比制造核武器容易得多、生物武器杀伤力巨大以及生产生物战剂的设备难以被发现等因素,恐怖分子将来可能会更愿意选择生物武器作为它们进行破坏活动的工具.禁止生物武器是国际军控与裁军的重要组成部分,亚太地区禁止生物武器的努力是与国际禁止生物武器的进程紧密联系在一起的.     

美国中期选举对布什政府内外政策的影响

美国中期选举于2002年11月5日落下帷幕,布什领导的共和党大获全胜。共和党在众议院和参议院选举中,都获得超过宪法要求的多数党派最低席位数。这样,共和党不仅坐镇白宫,还同时控制了众议院和参议院。这种一党同时控制行政和立法部门的局面在美国200多年的历史上并不多见。     

9·11事件对美国和世界经济的影响

“9·11事件”对美国乃至全世界的影响是全方位的。本文旨在探讨这次恐怖袭击事件对美国经济、世界经济及我国经济构成的冲击和影响 ,并在此基础上 ,就美国经济、世界经济的发展前景谈些看法。美国经济雪上加霜　前景并不悲观恐怖袭击事件对美国经济的冲击是巨大的 ,其影响是深远的。但恐怖袭击对美国经济来说是外因 ,而弄清美国经济今后的走势只考虑外因是不够的 ,必须综合考虑各种因素。9·11事件发生以前美国经济已经放慢。导致经济滑坡的原因有三个 ,一是联储六次提息 ,使联邦基金利率上升了 1.75个百分点 ,加大了企业的融资成本 ,影响…     

Clarifying Decisions: Assessing the Impact of Decision Structures on Foreign Policy Choices During the 1970 Jordanian Civil War

This study examines situation versus personality effects on foreign policy decision making. It proposes that while both factors are important in explaining decision outcomes, the relative importance of each in a given circumstance is a function of the structural constraints imposed by the policy decision environment. Following Maoz (1990) and Maoz and Astorino (1992b), a decision-game theoretic framework is used to "reconstruct" policy decision problems in order to study individual and environment effects concurrently. The substantive focus is the ten decisions that comprised the major events of the 1970 Civil War in Jordan. The decision reconstructions are used to rate these decision tasks according to the presence and degree of structural constraint. Although it represents a preliminary test, the decision analysis indicates that in structurally constrained decision settings, policymakers tended to respond in accordance with environmental clues, while response variability and evidence of simplifying decision heuristics was greater in more fluid decision settings.     

The Future of Chemical Weapons: Implications from the Syrian Civil War

Abstract

With chemical weapons (CW) use in Syria raising questions about the health of the CW norm, this article analyzes whether the Syrian case will lead to further proliferation and use of chemical weapons by states. We examine the use of chemical weapons at Ghouta in 2013 and on the Hama Plains in 2014 and find that: first, chemical weapons have demonstrated limited military utility in Syria, either tactically or as a tool of civilian victimization; second, the costs of use have been repeatedly demonstrated by the international reaction to their use; and third, the use of sarin—a nerve agent—has attracted a stronger international response than the use of chlorine, a less lethal agent. Consequently, we conclude that the Syrian case is unlikely to lead to significant proliferation and use of chemical weapons; any that does occur is most likely to involve states already outside the CW norm.     

中期选举对美内外政策和中美关系的影响

11月2日美国中期选举结束后,计票结果显示,共和党以绝对优势重新掌控众议院,民主党则以微弱多数勉强保住参议院过半席位,形成国会两院分治的新局面。此次选举民主党惨败有多重原因。未来两年,奥巴马为力争2012年连任,可能选择走“中左”路线,其内外政策会有所调整,中关关系也面临一些新变数。     

Assessing the Future Threat: ISIS's Virtual Caliphate

The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria's (ISIS) Virtual Caliphate shows no signs of diminishment. With the group's loss of territory and with social media platforms increasingly policed, Telegram, a messaging application, remains ISIS's key platform for disseminating propaganda and recruiting new members. Telegram's security features, cross-platform construction, and secret chat option offer a secure environment for interaction between ISIS and its supporters. On Telegram, ISIS manipulates an environment rich with addictive properties, creating online spaces that encourage group identity, shared opinions, and dominant ideologies, while exploiting an individual's need to be a part of the group. This research investigates how Telegram is used by ISIS and its supporters and assesses what kind of threat the use of Telegram poses for the future.The research is supported in part by the Office of Naval Research “Documenting the Virtual Caliphate” #N00014-16-1-3174. All opinions are exclusively those of the authors and do not represent the Department of Defense or the Navy. This article is part of a special project conducted by the Foreign Policy Research Institute, titled: “After the Caliphate: Reassessing the Jihadi Threat and Stabilizing the Fertile Crescent,” which includes a book, a thematic issue of Orbis: FPRI's Journal of World Affairs (Summer 2018), and a series of podcasts. Each element of the project can be found here: https://www.fpri.org/research/after-the-caliphate-project/.     

Attacks on Civilians in Civil War: Targeting the Achilles Heel of Democratic Governments

Previous research has indicated that democracy decreases the risk of armed conflict, while increasing the likelihood of terrorist attacks, but we know little about the effect of democracy on violence against civilians in ongoing civil conflicts. This study seeks to fill this empirical gap in the research on democracy and political violence, by examining all rebel groups involved in an armed conflict 1989–2004. Using different measures of democracy, the results demonstrate that rebels target more civilians when facing a democratic (or semi-democratic) government. Democracies are perceived as particularly vulnerable to attacks on the population, since civilians can hold the government accountable for failures to provide security, and this provides incentives for rebels to target civilians. At the same time, the openness of democratic societies provides opportunities for carrying out violent attacks. Thus, the strength of democracy—its accountability and openness—can become an Achilles heel during an internal armed conflict.     

从9·11事件看国际恐怖主义及其根源

9·11事件告诉我们，国际恐怖主义的恶性膨胀已对全球的和平与发展形成严重威胁。近年来国际恐怖主义发展的势头越来越猛，主要表现出以下一些新的特点：1．政治性恐怖攻击行动不断升级，形成一股狂潮。如中东巴以冲突中持续不断的自杀性爆炸和暗杀行动……     

俄罗斯的南海政策及其对中国海洋争端的影响——基于美国亚太再平衡战略的分析

在美国亚太战略的影响下,俄罗斯结合多重利益的需要,以实用主义为原则,采取"选择性战略协作"的南海政策,一方面强化与中国的交流与合作,以抵制来自美国及北约的战略压力,应对美国的亚太再平衡战略;另一方面,加强与亚太国家的联系,谋求区域影响力,平衡中国带来的挑战。俄罗斯这种"选择性战略协作"的立场深深影响着中国的海洋争端。因此,中国应针对俄罗斯的南海政策,制定相应的战略对策。     

我国出口企业应对反倾销的反思与策略调整——以美国对华彩电反倾销案为例

2004年5月14日,美国国际贸易委员会就中国对美出口彩电(屏幕在52厘米以上)反倾销案进行终裁投票,并一致认定,从中国进口的特定种类彩电确实对美国产业造成了实质性损害.至此,这起迄今为止针对中国家电产品出口涉案金额最大的反倾销案,以中国彩电企业的应诉失利告一段落.根据美国法律,2004年5月21日美国商务部宣布了对中国彩电的反倾销征税令.