日本化学武器军控政策研究

日本自上世纪初形成生产、使用化学武器,并在侵华战争中大量使用了化学武器.1945年日本战败后,大量化学武器遗弃在中国境内,对我国居民造成了直接伤害.战后,日本政府热衷国际化学武器军控事业,积极寻找、销毁本国老化学武器,但在处理遗弃在华化学武器问题上推诿拖沓.这种鲜明的反差,受到国际和国内多重因素的影响.除非日本的外交战略、防务政策发生重大变化,近期内日本的化学武器军控政策不会轻易改变.     

联合国CCW框架下致命性自主武器系统 军控辩争的焦点与趋势

在人工智能革命背景下致命性自主武器系统(LAWS)军控逐渐成为国际热点议题,联合国《特定常规武器公约》(CCW)会谈机制作为其核心平台召开了三次非正式专家会议和三次正式政府专家组会议。技术层面,主要探讨了LAWS的定义和特点,各方基本同意LAWS军控不应当妨碍民用人工智能技术创新,但对目前是否应制定及如何制定LAWS可行定义等问题存在分歧;伦理层面,讨论焦点在于LAWS对于人权和道德的冲击,各方基本认为不应将生死决定权让渡给机器,但对机器是否作为道德主体等问题存在分歧;法律层面,主要关注LAWS对现有国际人道法的冲击,各方基本同意现有国际人道法依旧适用于LAWS管控,但在是否需要除现有国际法之外增加监管机制等问题上存在分歧;军事层面,主要探讨了LAWS扩散风险对战略稳定性的冲击及存在的局限性等问题,各方基本同意研发部署LAWS的责任在于国家和指挥官,但在预防性禁止还是暂时放任,甚至鼓励发展LAWS等问题上存在分歧。展望未来,这一军控机制可能推动制定各方接受的LAWS工作定义,探索将伦理道德嵌入LAWS的可能性与方法,建立LAWS的法律审查机制,拟定暂停部署LAWS的政治宣言或法律文书。由此,中国应继续积极参与CCW框架下LAWS军控探讨,推动管控相关战略风险及伦理法律挑战,以维护自身国家利益和人类安全福祉。     

The Role of Safe Havens in Islamist Terrorism

This article will develop an explanatory theory on terrorist safe havens. Focusing on Islamist Terrorist networks, this article argues that four specific conditions are necessary for the establishment of a safe haven for Islamist terrorist networks: geographic features, weak governance, history of corruption and violence, and poverty. At the conclusion of the article, the developed theory is applied to the Tri-Border Area of South America (TBA), where the frontiers of Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay meet, an area overlooked by the 9/11 National Commission Report's list of Islamist terrorists' safe havens.     

Support for Terrorism: The Role of Beliefs in Jihad and Institutional Responses to Terrorism

ABSTRACT

Passive support for terrorism refers to expressions of sympathy for acts of terrorism and/or the justifications (ideology) used by terrorist groups to legitimise their beliefs and actions. One form of passive support is whether Muslims feel terrorists have valid grievances. Appealing to a sense of grievance is a key way that violent Islamists attempt to recruit fellow Muslims to their cause. Using survey data collected from 800 Muslims living in Australia, this paper examines factors that lead Muslims to believe that terrorists have valid grievances. Factors examined include beliefs in jihad and attitudes towards counterterrorism policing and laws. Other variables included in the analysis are social identity, age, gender, income, religious denomination (Sunni vs. Shia), religious commitment, i.e., Mosque attendance, and recent contact with police. The most significant predictor of passive support for terrorism was found to be particular beliefs in jihad. The perceived legitimacy of counterterrorism laws and trust in police were also important. Implications for countering extremist ideology and generating community cooperation in counterterrorism will be considered.     

The Institutionalization of Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQMI)

A number of observers have expressed serious concerns that Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQMI), as it expands in the Sahel, may become strong enough to be a threat to Europe and carry on the global mission of Al-Qaeda as conceived by bin Laden. This fear seems unwarranted. Using institutional analysis to study the AQMI behavioral fluctuations over the last decade, this article argues that AQMI's need to find a compromise between external and internal legitimacy has constrained its behavior. The affiliation of the Algerian terrorists with Al-Qaeda was in many ways a marriage of convenience that created a number of internal contradictions. At the cognitive level, implicit Algerian nationalism to rid the country of its corrupt regime remains at odds with pan-Islamic views shared by Al-Qaeda's leadership. At the normative level, indiscriminate suicide bombing supported by Al-Qaeda is abhorrent to many Algerian terrorists, who construe their mandate in the spirit of the Algerian war of independence where it is their duty to protect civilians. These and other contradictions prevent AQMI from developing a coherent political agenda and thus it is less likely to engage in a long-term conflict against European societies.     

The Projected Convention on Chemical Weapons and its Application in Time of Armed Conflict

As the US prepares to pull out of Iraq, the ‘national reconciliation’ process that was launched in the Summer of 2006 remains stalled. The March 2010 legislative elections, which were expected to consecrate the rebuilding of a national pact between Iraqis, have led to even greater fragmentation of Iraq's socio-political landscape. The power sharing agreement ultimately presages more tensions to come. With the essence and reality of the Iraqi ‘nation’ long debated and subjected to continued deconstruction under the combined effects of authoritarianism, military conflagrations and economic sanctions, it will likely take decades before a genuine reconciliation can come about.     

The Evolution of Jihadist Terrorism in Morocco

Over the last few years, Moroccans have been disproportionately involved in jihadist terrorism. Morocco has been increasingly identified as one of the largest producers of terrorists and insurgents in Afghanistan, Iraq, and throughout Europe. This article examines the factors behind the emergence of jihadist terrorism in Morocco, and how this terrorist threat has gone beyond this country's borders. Three factors have contributed to this development: the influence of global jihad on potential Moroccan jihadists; the growing Islamization of the country; and deteriorating socioeconomic conditions. In analyzing these variables, special attention will be paid to the Casablanca terrorist attacks on May 16, 2003, marking the debut of suicide terrorism in Morocco. The article will also examine the principal counterterrorist initiatives Morocco has implemented in response to this threat.     

后"伊斯兰国"时期恐怖意识形态蔓延:一个新的讨论框架

当前,国际联军打击“伊斯兰国”战事已进入尾声,然而,地面战场的失败并不意味着“伊斯兰国”思想的消亡。从萨拉菲-吉哈德主义极端意识形态发展脉络框架下考察,“伊斯兰国”在这一思想脉络中的独特历史地位塑造了它当前与未来的思想发展方式。国际社会需要认识到,当前反恐战争所面对的“战败者”可能并不认为自己已经失败,其意识形态过去近半个世纪危机式发展赋予了“伊斯兰国”面对失败的独特抵抗能力。“基地”组织在2011年被击溃后的历史也证明,在可预见的未来,“伊斯兰国”将很有可能继续在扩大其基本怀旧式叙事、赋予战败以合法性的同时,还将通过“全球恐怖商标”下的“特许经营”模式,将一种“暴力即思想”的恐怖思想内核进一步扩散并升级。国际社会打击“伊斯兰国”战争,可能刚刚到一个需要进行“中期评估”的时候,这场战争远未结束。     

The Impact of Russian Terrorism in Kishinev on the Zionist Movement and the Jewish Intelligentsia

The explosion of terror which took place in the Bessarabian capital in April 1903 and which has since become known as the Kishinev Pogrom had a profound impact on all of Russian Jewry. But as far as the Zionist movement is concerned, and in opposition to what is generally believed about the Pogrom's central role in the history of Zionism, the Pogrom did not lead to any changes in the activities undertaken by the Zionists or in the ideology which they espoused. It was rather that the Pogrom triggered certain phenomena already present in Zionism during the preceding few years.     

Mismatched Deterrents: Preventing the Use of Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Weapons

The basic logic of graduated deterrence worked fairly well against the Soviet Union, as each level of aggression was to be deterred by a matching response. But this logic has now been undermined vis-à-vis future rogue state chemical and biological attacks by the spread of dual-use technologies that can be diverted to weapons, and by decisions of the United States and other democracies to forego possession of chemical or biological weapons. This article identifies some of the serious difficulties of alternative approaches to deterring chemical or biological attacks, ranging from nuclear escalation to a reliance on supposed American advantages in conventional weapons. Lumping chemical and biological weapons together with nuclear weapons into a new category of "weapons of mass destruction" is a very imperfect solution.     

The Challenge of Talking about Terrorism: The EU and the Arab Debate on the Causes of Islamist Terrorism 1

The Arab “hegemonic debate” on the causes of Islamist terrorism nurtures (pan-) Arab, anti-Western sentiments and delegitimizes criticism of the political status quo. The European Union's emphasis on multilateral means of conflict resolution and trade promotion leads to official pronouncements that barely address the Arab world's domestic problems, instead referring to international tensions such as the Arab-Israeli conflict as a particular cause of Islamist terrorism and the need for cooperation with Arab governments. By failing to challenge the official narratives of authoritarian Arab regimes the EU obstructs interests in the democratization of the region and the delegitimization of Islamist violence.     

The Logic of Terrorism: Existential Anxiety,the Search for Meaning,and Terrorist Ideologies

Drawing from the work of political theorists, theologians, anthropologists, journalists, philosophers, and contemporary psychologists studying Terror Management Theory (TMT), it becomes possible to see that the concepts of existentialism and ideology may be useful for modern thinkers attempting to understand a problem such as terrorism. Integrating work from these fields makes it possible to see that terrorism may be driven by an existential-terroristic feedback loop: a cycle in which people support or engage in terrorism to alleviate existential anxiety but ultimately find this anxiety exacerbated in the wake of the violence they create or sanction. The loop is closed when this exacerbated anxiety compels them to reaffirm their support of, or participation in, terrorist violence. If this model is valid, then effectively addressing the problem of terrorism requires joining existing U.S. policies with policies that address ideologies. Specifically, policies must aspire to a) mitigate existential anxiety, b) provide a compelling counter-narrative, c) address environmental factors conducive to radicalization, d) prevent the formation of radicalized groups, and e) deradicalize existing ideologues.     

美国国家反恐战略的分析框架与历史演进

美国全球反恐行动已持续近十八年,理解当下特朗普政府的反恐战略和未来走向离不开对美国反恐战略历史演进的梳理,而对三届政府反恐战略的比较则需基于统一的分析框架。美国国家反恐战略包括四个基本组成部分：对恐怖主义的威胁认知、指导反恐的基本原则、预设的战略目标和实施的政策手段。对比分析小布什政府、奥巴马政府与特朗普政府的反恐战略,特朗普政府延续了上一任政府持续收缩的全球反恐态势,具体表现为对恐怖主义的威胁认知更趋符合客观现实,“美国优先”的指导原则凸显了利己和激进的态度,预设的战略目标则相对具体和务实。在政策手段上,特朗普政府缩减反恐武力规模、减少外交关注和发展投入,但通过加大军事打击力度以向外界传达其反恐的强硬态度。以“美国优先”为原则的反恐收缩战略进一步表现出美国对全球反恐行动感到疲乏且失去信心,并以此为由试图摆脱原有约束美国对外行为的一系列因素。特朗普政府的反恐战略并不能使美国彻底摆脱全球反恐的尴尬境地,并将对全球反恐形势和国家间关系产生重要影响。     

The Collective Nature of Lone Wolf Terrorism: Anders Behring Breivik and the Anti-Islamic Social Movement

Anders Behring Breivik, a lone wolf terrorist, killed 77 people in two terrorist attacks in Norway in 2011. This study uses framing theory from social movement studies to compare his Manifesto with the rhetoric of the anti-Islamic movement that inspired him. The anti-Islamic movement has a dual, and sometimes inconsistent, collective action framing. On the one hand, they portray Islam as an existential threat to the West and a warlike enemy; on the other, they promote peaceful and democratic opposition. The potential for radicalization is thus immanent. This case study reveals the importance of seeing lone wolf terrorists as acting from rhetoric embedded in larger social movements. It further demonstrates, in detail, the subtle and complex ways in which political narratives rejecting terrorism and political violence still end up inspiring such acts.     

Terrorism and revolutionary violence: the emergence of terrorism in the French Revolution

Accounts of terrorism, which locate the emergence of the concept in the French Revolution, tend to accept two premises. First, they assume that the concept of terrorism names a particular form of violence. Second, they regard Robespierre as the first practitioner of terrorism, thus suggesting an understanding of the term as state violence. While this article substantiates the second premise by way of a discussion of the first systematic articulation of terrorism by Tallien in 1794, it problematises the first premise through an examination of archival evidence from the period between 1794 and 1797. By identifying a variety of conceptual uses of terrorism as a form of government, political philosophy and political identity, I argue for an expansion of the conceptual space within which terrorism is primarily understood as a form of violent action.     

A Battlefield of Meanings: The Struggle for Identity in the UN Debates on a Definition of International Terrorism

For nearly forty years, debates on a definition of international terrorism as part of a comprehensive convention have been preoccupying the United Nations. This article challenges conventional approaches referring to divergences in national interests and preferences, or to institutional constraints and national legal traditions, to explain why no definition has been agreed upon. It analyzes the inconclusive debates from a critical perspective and argues that the continuous search for a definition can be understood through the prism of collective identity struggles: the desire to define terrorism is not only the desire to give a precise content to terrorism and, thereby, create the identity of an Other. It is also the desire to create a collective identity, a “Self,” representing and uniting those who oppose terrorism. By applying a discursive understanding of collective identity construction to analyze the UN debates, the article elucidates how strongly the definition of terrorism hinders a common understanding among those who are opposing terrorism. Thereby, the analysis highlights that the demonization of terrorism foremost impedes a homogeneous understanding of a collective Self, ready to confront and define terrorism in the first place.     

The Impact of the Threat of Terrorism on U.S. District Court Decisions During Wartime

Federal courts are key actors in the U.S. government’s fight against terrorism because they adjudicate cases based on the USA PATRIOT Act, and accordingly make national security policy. We examine the extent that the terror threat influences judicial decisions in a dataset of 111 USA PATRIOT Act cases decided in the U.S. District Courts from 2001 through 2013, while controlling for other judicial decision-making variables. The results demonstrate that when a case involves a heightened terror threat, federal judges are more likely to defer to the government. Some key control variables are also significant.     

The Madrid Bombings and Negotiations With ETA: A Case Study of the Impact of Terrorism on Spanish Politics

This article analyzes the impact that two terrorism-related matters had on Spanish politics and electoral processes in the country. First, the article analyzes the terrorist attacks perpetrated by jihadists on March 11, 2004, three days before Spain's general election. The indiscriminate, lethal attacks caused a state of shock in the country, brought the election campaign to a sudden end, and led to the defeat of the party in power. Second, the article analyzes the negotiations entered into with the ETA terrorist organization by the new government during its first term, from 2004 to 2008. This controversial step, upheld by the Spanish government despite massive opposition by civil society and the main opposition party, failed to bring about the end of ETA. Both the Madrid attacks and the negotiations with ETA were responsible for the breakdown of the consensus in regard to terrorism that had existed among the main Spanish political parties. The article analyzes how both events generated an unprecedented level of polarization and tension among political parties and society from 2004 to 2008, and how each event had a different impact on the general elections held during that period. The period under examination provides an example of adversarial politics; terrorism was highly influenced by the management of both events by the main political players.     

Psychologically disturbed and on the side of the terrorists: the delegitimisation of critical intellectuals in Terrorism and Political Violence

The journal Terrorism and Political Violence recently published a special issue looking at why particular communities of intellectuals purportedly support terrorism, which, due to its politically partisan nature, is potentially damaging for terrorism studies. Showing that several articles within the special issue use the twin processes of accusing intellectuals of supporting terrorism and of being psychologically disturbed as a form of delegitimisation, three fundamental flaws in the special issue will be examined. In explaining these flaws, this paper draws attention to the way that this special issue forms an “epistemic community” at both the micro and the macro level, where certain assumptions on power and legitimacy are unquestioned. As a result, the special issue gains and performs an ideological function in censuring criticism of Israeli foreign policy.     

Provisional IRA Attacks on the UDR in Fermanagh and South Tyrone: Implications for the Study of Political Violence and Terrorism

This article continues a discussion begun in the 1990s on the degree to which Provisional Irish Republican Army activities were sectarian. Henry Patterson's recent contribution raises issues that concern not only interpretations of the Irish conflict but also have implications for the more general study of the causes and consequences of political violence and terrorism. After addressing some of these issues, Patterson's contribution is placed more firmly into the framework of the previous discussion. Then follows a careful examination of Irish Republican Army attacks on the locally recruited security forces in Fermanagh and South Tyrone, from the 1950s to today.