The Potential for Resurgent Clashes among Warlords in Afghanistan

The Location and Development of Warlords in the Reconstruction of AfghanistanWarlordism is not a new issue in the reconstruction of Afghanistan.Since modern times,tribal elders and provincial governors have been independent local powers in Afghanistan,and they have been the main resource and foundation for contemporary warlords in Afghanistan.The Soviet invasion,civil war,the rule of Taliban and the Anti-Terror War all provided opportunities to reinforce the warlords.As Afghanistan undergoes reconstruction,so the warlords' power and status has been strengthened.It has two embodiments.In the first place,the warlords have gained legal positions in the national power center,not only in Afghanistan's provisional government,but also in the later transitional govemment and the Grand National Congress (Loya Jirga).     

从地缘政治经济看大国与阿富汗内战

自古以来,阿富汗就是各民族迁徒、文化交融、贸易往来的枢纽地带.到了近代,阿富汗又成为英国与俄罗斯"两块磨石之间的一粒小麦".冷战时期,阿富汗再次成为美苏争霸的前沿阵地.抗苏战争胜利以后,阿富汗转入长期内战,喀布尔数度易手.今日塔利班虽处于优势,但要使阿富汗停息内战,真正开始和平建设,还有很长的路要走,而且塔利班的优势是否能长期维持,也值得怀疑.纵观阿富汗历史,战乱不息、动乱迭起,究其原因主要是因为阿富汗所处的战略地位特别重要,经常受到外部政治、经济、军事势力的强烈冲击.     

美军驻阿富汗新司令麦克里斯托尔

今年5月11日,美国国防部长盖茨异乎寻常地解除驻阿富汗美军司令戴维·麦基尔南上将的职务,提议其职由美军联合参谋部主任、陆军中将斯坦利·麦克里斯托尔(Stanley McChrystal)继任.6月15日,麦克里斯托尔的提名获得美国参议院批准,正式走马上任成为美军驻阿新司令,并被晋升为上将军衔.当前,在阿富汗塔利班武装死灰复燃,驻阿美军伤亡人数节节攀升的大背景下,这位拥有"特战专家"出身背景,又深谙华盛顿官场之道的"隐形将军",将为奥巴马政府外交和军事战略的重中之重--阿富汗战局带来何种新气象,已成为美国朝野高度关注的焦点之一.     

Elections in Afghanistan and the Role of China-India-Russia Trilateral Cooperation in Rebuilding Afghanistan

With the Independent Election Commission of Afghanistan declaring President Harmid Karzai as the winner in the presidential election, the eventful elections in Afghanistan finally came to an end. The dramatic ending of the Afghan presidential and provincial council elections, which were held on August 20, 2009 but had since mired in disputes and allegations and counter-allegations of frauds, however, is not the beginning of the end of the perilous situation in Afghanistan.     

Humanitarian Intervention and Communal Civil Wars:

How do policymakers in democratic nations mobilize support for hard-line strategies? Existing answers to this question emphasize the exaggeration of external threats. Yet this overlooks an important dilemma: because democratic citizens expect their leaders to explore peaceful solutions or less aggressive alternatives when foreign dangers are ambiguous, the same conditions that make threat inflation necessary also make it difficult to employ successfully. To mobilize support for hard-line measures when the public wants its leaders to demonstrate restraint, policymakers may therefore attempt to shift blame onto an adversary by using “counterfeit diplomacy.” Specifically, democratic leaders may adopt more cooperative or less coercive options than they believe are necessary, but which they anticipate will fail. This approach can be a risky one, however, because an opponent might accept a nation's demands, accede to its conditions, or offer counterproposals in the hope of diffusing support for more confrontational measures.     

美军从伊拉克到阿富汗的战略转向

2月17日,美国总统奥巴马在北卡罗来纳州的军事营地宣布,美国已经着手进行结束伊拉克战争的工作,截至2010年8月31日以前美军将撤出大部分作战部队,只留下大约5万军人在伊遂行有限非战斗任务。根据前总统布什与伊拉克政府达成的安全协议,剩余部队将在2011年底前全部撤离伊拉克。同时,美军将战略重点转向阿富汗,计划2010年前向阿富汗增兵1.7万人,据估计美军驻阿部队将从目前的3.4万人增加到6.6万人。此次战略调整既是奥巴马兑现总统竞选时的诺言,更是美国出于重新调整和规划其在全球范围内反恐的战略考虑。     

"New Wars" and Rumors of "New Wars"

Recently, there has been a growing tendency to suggest "new" classes of wars that are presumably different from all wars we have known and studied. In this article, we discuss the extent to which the landscape of armed conflict has changed so dramatically that it has necessitated a revision of the prevalent typology of war, a reconsideration of the correlates of war, and a reconceptualization of the theoretical assumptions regarding the etiology of war. While it is clear that patterns of warfare shift across time and space, it is not clear that war itself has changed "fundamentally" and has become inexplicable in light of theoretical arguments in world politics as many "new war" theorists suggest. Our analysis demonstrates that many of the "new wars" are simply amalgamations of various interstate, extrastate, and intrastate wars-i.e., the "old wars"-that have been lumped into a single category. The result is a hodgepodge of armed conflicts whose different correlates derive from their diverse morphologies rather than their novelty as wars unlike any we have experienced previously.     

阿富汗:失去的机会和前景

本文试图对阿富汗战争失败的原因进行总结,并对阿富汗的前景作出分析.阿富汗战争已进行9年,对它军事败局的原因见仁见智,本文对其进行了整理,提出了作者的看法.从2010年开始,阿富汗进入了喀布尔进程,美国将在一年后开始撤军,阿富汗政府将接管全部管理和安全职能.阿富汗处于历史的十字路口,对于它的前景,本文也予以探讨.     

阿富汗民族宗教概况

阿富汗伊斯兰国(The Islamic State 0f Mghanistan)是亚洲中西部的内陆国家,也是连接中亚、西亚和南亚的枢纽。北邻土库曼斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦、塔吉克斯坦,西界伊朗,南部和东部连巴基斯坦,东北部突出的狭长地带与中国接壤。国土面积62．22万平方公里,首都喀布尔(Kabul)。     

阿富汗伊斯兰化进程刍议

公元7世纪中期,伊斯兰教进入阿富汗及其周边地区,由于特殊的地理与人文环境,阿富汗的伊斯兰化经历了一个曲折而漫长的过程,与伊斯兰世界的核心地区相比,阿富汗地区的伊斯兰教更多地容忍了当地的各种信仰体系。然而,阿富汗的伊斯兰化却是伊斯兰发展史上的一个重要环节,它不仅为伊斯兰教进入中亚、南亚和中国提供了通道,而且抵御了什叶派向东伊朗的扩张,同时,突厥人的伊斯兰化也与阿富汗地方王朝的努力有密切关系。     

美国阿富汗战略的走势

与2001年进入阿富汗相比,美国现在想得更多的是如何既从阿体面退出,又不让塔利班重新掌权。美国何时、如何从阿富汗退出,并不是一个军事问题,而是一个政治问题,它取决于美国国内、国际社会和阿富汗局势三个层面的因素。并且,美国从阿富汗退出也不一定意味着美完全离开阿富汗,而是表明其不愿意在阿继续承担直接的安全和军事责任。     

COIN Machine: The British Military in Afghanistan

This article assesses the British military effort in Afghanistan looking at three key elements in the campaign: strategy, military operations, and the inter-agency “Comprehensive Approach.” We start by recognising the scale of the challenge that has faced the British: of all the provinces in Afghanistan, Helmand is the toughest to stabilize and secure. We then examine the evolution of all three elements above and find significant improvements in each: a flawed strategy has been corrected; the military have received more resources and become significantly better at COIN; and there is significant progress in the development of the inter-agency approach. In short, what the Americans will find in Helmand is a British COIN machine; a little creaky perhaps, but one that is fit for purpose and getting the job done. We briefly conclude on the prospects and the key to success: namely the development of a more coherent international strategy that accommodates the challenges posed by both Afghanistan and Pakistan.     

阿富汗政治和解进程的进展、问题与前景

阿富汗政治和解进程包括招安与和谈两方面。目前,招安进程已有一定成效,但仍面临各种问题。而和谈进程则步履维艰,前景不容乐观。和谈进程的问题主要是：各方立场严重对立,谈判诚意不足。整体来看,阿政治和解进程的突出问题主要是：招安与和谈一手硬一手软,严重不平衡;各方内部分歧严重;各方＂以攻势促谈判＂的策略导致安全局势进一步恶化。     

The war in Afghanistan: its background and future prospects

If the West loses in Afghanistan and its region, the most important reason will be that we are pursuing several different goals simultaneously, most of which are in contradiction to the others. Western governments need to choose between these goals, and co-ordinate a strategy in pursuit of the most desirable and achievable ones. The creation of a democratic Afghanistan needs to be recognised as a hopeless fantasy. Instead, the West should imitate the Soviet Union in the late 1980s and concentrate on creating an effective military force that can survive Western withdrawal and continue to fight the Taleban. In the meantime, something to be avoided at all costs is the further destabilisation of Pakistan, since Pakistan in the end constitutes a far greater potential threat to the region, the West and the world than does Afghanistan.     

阿富汗重建进程及前景

“9·11”后,阿富汗重建进程基本按波恩协议规定的方向顺利进行,阿因而基本具备了常态国家的外在形式。在外部力量介入下,阿富汗政治重建远远领先于经济恢复步伐,政治与经济脱节问题日益暴露无遗。阿富汗政府正面临安全形势恶化、军阀势力抬头、毒品经济和贫困、腐败等系列挑战,阿过分依赖美国的负面影响也逐步显现,其发展前景带有较大的不确定性。     

中国对阿富汗局势稳定的作用探索

美国发动阿富汗反恐战争至今已逾9年,阿富汗仍是地区冲突和安全危机的热点,稳定与重建的目标远未实现,继续引发国际社会的密集关注。事实已经表明,阿富汗问题的解决不能单靠武力,必须寻求政治和外交途径。中国是阿富汗稳定与重建的主要利益攸关方,现状与前景直接影响中国的国家利益和战略安全。中国需要在正确评估局势和确定自身利益的基础上制定战略,应对恐怖主义和极端主义的挑战,寻求发挥重要作用的机遇,对地区稳定和国际安全有所作为。