Repression,Grievances, Mobilization,and Rebellion: A New Test of Gurr’s Model of Ethnopolitical Rebellion

The concept of polarity has been subject to imprecise and often diverse use. This note explores problems associated with the varied use of the term and proposes an alternative approach to classifying international systems which treats horizontal and vertical dimensions of power as distinct structural variables. In this approach, the present system is distinguished from the classical balance of power system containing pluralized patterns of conflict on the one hand and from the Cold War system with a marked concentration of power on the other. In the contemporary system polarized patterns of conflict coexist with processes of power diffusion. To the extent polarizations persist in a more diffuse power setting, the decentralized power balancing system through which stability was sought in multipower systems cannot function‐nor are the polarized conflicts likely to be controlled as a result of the two‐power effort at balancing power which occurred during the post‐war period. The factors affecting the stability of the present system, it is suggested here, can be better understood by examining analogous structures in which processes of power diffusion occur in the context of polarized conflict and not as a result of spurious comparisons which mistake the diffusion of power for the pluralization of conflict.     

Hostage Diplomacy: Britain,China, and the Politics of Negotiation, 1967–1969

During the radical phase of the Cultural Revolution in 1967–1969, China's violation of the diplomatic norms of the international community reached an unprecedented level. Two dozen British diplomats and private citizens on the mainland became de facto hostages of their host government. In response to China's hostage-taking, the British government preferred quiet diplomacy to extreme retaliation such as a rupture of diplomatic relations and economic sanctions. It focused on negotiations through minimal publicity and reciprocal gestures. But in China, the British found a culturally different negotiating partner that was obsessed with principles rather than details. Through a step-by-step negotiating approach recommended by the Sinologists in the British Mission, London was finally successful in securing the release of its detained nationals. The lesson of Britain's quiet diplomacy was a culture-sensitive approach to negotiation and the ability to separate the hostage question from the wider political and economic relationship that would facilitate the resolution of future hostage crises.     

‘Ryk,ryker, Rykie’: A first exploration of the journalistic contribution of a journalist extraordinaire

Abstract

This article will, as a first exploration, attempt to put some aspects of the Afrikaans journalist Rykie van Reenen into perspective with the aim of understanding her contribution to South African journalism and the extent of her oeuvre. Van Reenen was referred to as 'undoubtedly the most outstanding Afrikaans journalist of the [twentieth] century' (Giliomee 2003, 564). In the Afrikaans rewritten version of this book, it is qualified with the word 'waarskynlik' – (probably) (Giliomee 2004, 470). Although her journalism, according to sources, contributed in a significant way to the eventual political change from an Afrikaner Nationalist-governed country to a democracy, very little is known about the journalist. This initial recording of van Reenen's oeuvre is part of a more extensive study of this journalist who has set a standard in South African Afrikaans journalism in terms of subject matter and writing style. This article can thus also be regarded as a contribution in a small way to a more complete South African media historiography, which, in general, lacks significant scholarly attention.     

CSDP,Strategy and Crisis Management: Out of Area or Out of Business?

The EU's ineffectiveness vis‐à‐vis Libya and the southern Mediterranean crises more broadly is largely explained by the CSDP's narrow mandate centred on crisis management. The EU's emphasis on external crisis management was strategically sound given the geopolitical context of the 1990s. CSDP's quiet drift towards a ‘softer’ kind of crisis management from the middle of the first decade of the 2000s was also instrumental in highlighting the EU's differences from post‐11 September US unilateralism. That said, (soft) crisis management has become progressively obsolete in the light of a rapidly changing geopolitical environment characterised by an overall retreat of Western power globally, a weakening of America's commitment to European security, an increasingly tumultuous European neighbourhood, and Europe's financial troubles. In order to meet the demands of a changing geopolitical environment, CSDP must break away from its distinctively reactive approach to security to include all the functions normally associated with the military including, chiefly, deterrence and prevention. This would allow the EU to actively shape its regional and global milieu.     

Threats,opportunity, and force: Repression and diversion of domestic pressure, 1948–1982

This paper explores empirically how domestic political and economic challenges affect political leaders’ propensity to respond with the use of force at home and abroad. The foreign policy and world politics literatures are replete with references to leaders’ alleged use of external conflict when confronted with domestic challenges, but rarely consider domestic responses to dissent or the role of interstate threats. Comparative research on repression primarily focuses on linkages between domestic challenges and leaders’ resort to repressive policies, but ignores international alternatives. Neither literature considers the influence of external threats and opportunity structures on resort to use of force and coercion at home and abroad. Alternatively, we contend that foreign conflict and repression are complementary and potentially interchangeable policies that leaders may use to maintain political power in the face of domestic pressure. We hypothesize that the level of domestic political constraints conditions the opportunity and likelihood of selecting either repression or foreign conflict in response to domestic challenges. Since the ability to capitalize on external conflict involvement in all likelihood is not independent of international opportunity structures, we explicitly address differences in the availability of historical interstate animosity. We test our hypotheses on resort to repression and external dispute involvement on a global sample of political leaders for the period 1948–82. Our results indicate that repression and external conflict involvement appear to be largely independent and driven by different challenges: While there is some evidence that domestic conflict increases the likelihood of disputes and that external threat may promote repression, there is little support for the idea of direct substitution in kind since leaders frequently combine both dispute involvement and repression.     

The Use of Force—Stability and Instability: India,Pakistan, and China

This article evaluates the source of instability and stability in the India-Pakistan dyad and the Sino-Indian dyad. Challenging the dominant thesis that “means determine ends,” the article posits that the use of force by Pakistan renders the India-Pakistan relationship unstable, whereas the Sino-Indian relationship is significantly more stable because of the absence of force. The difference in the state of stability in both dyads is because the weaker state, Pakistan in its conflict with India has failed to accept the verdict of its military defeats. This failure to internalize irreversible military outcomes makes Pakistan particularly susceptible to employing forcible solutions to settle its dispute with India over Kashmir. The reality reverses in the Sino-Indian territorial dispute, in that India has implicitly accepted its military loss against China in 1962 and charted a diplomatic pathway in resolving the boundary dispute.     

A Review of: “Media and Conflict: Framing Issues,Making Policy,Shaping Opinions,edited by Eytan Gilboa”

Using survey data from statewide political party convention delegates in four states, I investigate whether and how gender stereotypes influence nomination choice. I examine whether gaining candidate information from different sources differentially influences gender stereotypes and the likelihood of supporting both a female and a male nominee. I argue that information sources outside a candidate's control—delegates' discussions with other delegates—versus sources candidates can control (e.g., campaign contacts and personal contact with the candidate) work against female candidates' nomination. Specifically, when delegates learn about candidates via the most controlled sources, they will be more likely to view the candidates as possessing both masculine and feminine traits and issue competencies. As a result, they should be more likely to support the candidate. In contrast, information from sources outside candidate control functions differently for male and female candidates: These sources confirm delegates' stereotype expectations, negatively affecting perceptions of a female candidate's masculine strengths, which then negatively relate to supporting her nomination. The results generally support these ideas: Delegates receiving information from the most controlled sources form balanced views of the female candidate, but the positive effects of information from these sources on nomination choice are not mediated by stereotypes. In contrast, delegates gaining information from other delegates confirm their stereotypes of the candidate and are then less likely to support her. More broadly, gender stereotypes, particularly those regarding female candidates' masculine traits and feminine issue competencies relative to the candidate's male opponent, directly and positively relate to delegates' likelihood of supporting her.     

A Review of: “Mikel Dunham. Buddha's Warriors: The Story of the CIA-Backed Tibetan Freedom Fighters,the Chinese Invasion,and the Ultimate Fall of Tibet”

Brenda K. Uekert, Rivers of Blood: A Comparative Study of Government Massacres. Westport, CT and London: Praeger Publishers, 1995. Pp.256, biblio, appendix of data sources. $55. ISBN 0–275–95165–0.

Maria Tatar, Lustmord: Sexual Murder in Weimar Germany. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1995. Pp. 213.

James E. Jacob, Hills of Conflict: Basque Nationalism in France. Reno, Las Vegas and London: University of Nevada Press, 1994. Pp.568.

Mark S. Hamm, Hate Crime: International Perspectives on Causes and Control. Cincinnati, OH: Anderson Publishing, 1994. Pp.199, index. ISBN 0–87084–350–8.

David A. Korn, Assassination in Khartoum. Bloomington and Indianapolis: Indiana University Press (An Institute for the Study of Diplomacy Book), 1993. Pp.262, biblio, index. $24.95. ISBN 0–253–33202–8.     

Routes of funding,roots of trust? Northern NGOs,Southern NGOs,donors, and the rise of direct funding

This paper, based on a review of SIDA's funding of NGOs in Bangladesh, explores the changing relationships between bilateral donors, Northern NGOs (NNGOs), and Southern NGOs (SNGOs). It compares direct and indirect funding routes between donors and SNGOs. Most SIDA funding of SNGOs was previously undertaken through Swedish NGOs. As SNGO competence and capacity has increased through their own efforts at professionalisation, through wider recognition and support from government and by the provision of 'capacity building' partnerships with NNGOs, these Southern organisations have taken up positions within the burgeoning 'third sectors' of aid-recipient countries alongside the governmental and business sectors. SIDA has increasingly funded SNGOs directly through its Dhaka office. The paper sets out to address two main themes in the context of Swedish aid to NGOs in Bangladesh. Firstly, as bilateral donors provide an increasing proportion of their resources to NGOs, how can sound and responsible funding relationships based on mutual trust be built between bilateral donors and NGOs? Secondly, how can NNGOs work usefully in contexts where the number and capacity of local SNGOs has expanded significantly?     

Power Transitions,Status Dissatisfaction,and War: The Sino-Japanese War of 1894–1895

Although power transition theory offers a powerful model of international conflict, scholars have not adequately operationalized the theory's key variable of satisfaction/dissatisfaction with the status quo. We argue that status dissatisfaction is an important component of a rising state's overall dissatisfaction with the system. We apply our revised power transition framework to the 1894–1895 Sino-Japanese War. Japan's revisionist foreign policy was driven by economic and security threats posed by China's control over Korea, dissatisfaction with Japan's place in the China-dominated East Asian hierarchy, the hope for recognition as a great power by the West, status-related domestic pressures, and by belief change that was endogenous to shifting power. Despite several earlier crises, Japan made the decision for war only after it had achieved parity with China, which is consistent with power transition theory's hypothesis that under conditions of shifting power, parity is a necessary condition for war.