Desperation votes and private interests: an analysis of Confederate trade legislation

The Confederate Congress passed draconian trade legislation in February 1864 to regulate the blockade running business in contrast to their free trade agenda. This legislation created higher prices and deadweight costs except in areas under Union control. We examine the series of votes and proposed amendments relating to the passage of this legislation and find that representatives were more likely to vote for trade regulations if their districts would be largely unaffected by the legislation, such as those districts under Union occupation. This private interest explanation provides a heretofore unexplored historical example of public choice theory under extreme conditions.     

Politician preferences, law-abiding lobbyists and caps on political contributions

The effect of a contribution cap is analyzed in a political lobbying game where the politician has a policy preference. In contrast to the previous literature without politician policy preferences, more restrictive binding caps always reduce expected aggregate contributions. However the initial imposition of a cap increases contributions if the politician mildly favors the low-valuation lobbyist’s policy. The introduction of policy preferences permits analysis of monied interests’ policy influence. A more restrictive cap makes it more likely that the politician enacts the policy he would have enacted in the absence of lobbying, even in cases where expected aggregate contributions increase.     

Who will vote quadratically? Voter turnout and votes cast under quadratic voting

Who will vote quadratically in large-N elections under quadratic voting (QV)? First, who will vote? Although the core QV literature assumes that everyone votes, turnout is endogenous. Drawing on other work, we consider the representativeness of endogenously determined turnout under QV. Second, who will vote quadratically? Conditional on turning out, we examine reasons that, in large-N elections, the number of votes that an individual casts may deviate substantially from that under pure, rational QV equilibrium play. Because turnout itself is driven by other factors, the same determinants may influence how voters who do turn out choose the quantity of votes to cast. Independently, the number of votes actually cast may deviate dramatically from pure QV predictions because of the complex and refined nature of equilibrium play. Most plausibly, voting behavior and outcomes would be determined predominately by social and psychological forces, would exhibit few of the features emphasized in the analysis of hyper-rational equilibrium play, and would have consequential properties that require a different research agenda to bring into focus. Some of our analysis also has implications for voting behavior under other procedures, including one person, one vote.     

Comment on David Listokin,Barbara Listokin,and Michael Lahr's “The contributions of historic preservation to housing and economic development”

Abstract

Listokin, Listokin, and Lahr laud the economic benefits of historic preservation but fail to delve deeply enough into the negative impacts and how they might be mitigated. Preservation projects tend to displace lower‐income households and small businesses, and the jobs they generate tend to be low paying. In areas with high potential for displacement, local government and civic leaders should act cautiously and not intervene in ways that overheat these markets. We are unlikely to see new federal policies that substantially mitigate displacement. Nonetheless, the historic rehabilitation tax credit could be revised to encourage more modest and affordable preservation projects.

The extra costs associated with historic rehabilitation standards can be more burdensome than the authors describe. To reduce these costs, the administration of the Secretary of the Interior's Standards for Rehabilitation could be made more consistent and cost‐sensitive.     

State versus market: Taiwan’s trade, investment and aid policies in mainland China and southeast Asia in the post-Deng period

For many years Beijing has sought to isolate Taiwan from the world community, threatening to sever relations with any country that tries to establish or strengthen relations with Taiwan. As a result, economic diplomacy has become a tool in conducting Taiwan’s international affairs. Political and economic considerations are thus intermingled in Taiwan’s pursuit of its foreign economic policy. This paper does not intend to go into a traditional debate on the conflict between the state (politics) and the market (economics) in conducting a country’s foreign economic relations. Rather, it attempts to coordinate the merits of both state and market and assumes that an understanding of their interaction is useful in examining Taiwan’s foreign economic relations in the post-Deng period. The empirical study of this paper will focus on mainland China and the Southeast Asian countries. Southeast Asia is a region where no country maintains diplomatic relations with Taiwan. It is difficult indeed for Taiwan to develop official political ties with Southeast Asian countries because of their geographical proximity to mainland China, which tends to make them subject to pressure from Beijing. Thus, whenever Taipei conducts its economic communications (such as in foreign trade, foreign direct investment and foreign economic assistance) with mainland China and those Southeast Asian countries, political and economic factors are always taken into account by decision-makers.     

Can't get no satisfaction with the Westminster model? Winners,losers and the effects of consensual and direct democratic institutions on satisfaction with democracy

Are citizens in consensus democracies with developed direct democratic institutions more satisfied with their political system than those in majoritarian democracies? In this article, individual‐level data from the second wave of the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems and an updated version of Lijphart's multivariate measure of consensus and majoritarian democracy covering 24 countries are used to investigate this question. The findings from logistic multilevel models indicate that consensual cabinet types and direct democratic institutions are associated with higher levels of citizens' satisfaction with democracy. Furthermore, consensus democracy in these institutions closes the gap in satisfaction with democracy between losers and winners of elections by both comforting losers and reducing the satisfaction of winners. Simultaneously, consensus democracy in terms of electoral rules, the executive–legislative power balance, interest groups and the party system reduces the satisfaction of election winners, but does not enhance that of losers.     

Flatter world and thicker walls? Blogs, censorship and civic discourse in China

The Internet simply because it exists in China will not bring democracy to China. It is a tool, not a cause of political change. So far, the Chinese government has succeeded through censorship and regulation in blocking activists from using the Internet as an effective political tool. Likewise, blogs may be a catalyst for long-term political change because they are helping to enlarge the space for collaboration and conversation on subjects not directly related to political activism or regime change. However their role in China is more likely to involve political evolution—not revolution.     

Comment on Tollison’s contributions to economic history and the history of economic thought

Abstract Robert Tollison has furthered our understanding of mercantilism and other pivotal episodes in economic history considerably and also has applied the methods of positive economics to study the development of economic thought more generally. This article traces Tollison’s intellectual interest in those topics to his liberal arts education as an undergraduate at Wofford College and supplies commentary on Ekelund and Hébert’s valuable survey of his contributions to those areas of the literature.     

Health,Conflict, Stability and Statebuilding: A House Built on Sand?

Abstract

Increasingly, the purpose of third party health interventions in fragile states has become linked to statebuilding agendas in order to build government through health programmes. However, there is only limited data to support the efficacy of such an assumption. Indeed, this approach may instead invert the desired outcome of social legitimacy and undermine the rationale for which it is intended. This paper examines the strategic response from donors vis-à-vis the objective of statebuilding, and concludes that new research is required. It concludes that until there is empirically based evidence of the benefits of health interventions for statebuilding, the goals of health interventions should remain fixed primarily on improving health indicators instead.     

Kate Liao Zhou,Shelly Rigger and Lynn White III,eds., Democratization in China,Korea and Southeast Asia?

Journal of Chinese Political Science -     

Ideology,economic interests,and congressional roll-call voting: Partisan instability and Bank of the United States legislation, 1811–1816

We introduce a wrinkle into the study of Congressional roll-call voting by focusing on a period of partisan instability in American History: the Era of Good Feelings. During deviations from normal periods of two-party rule, the dominant model of voting behavior, the ideological model, loses precision in correctly classifying individual votes. We contend that a “pooled” voting model – comprised of both ideological and economic variables – performs better than the basic ideological model during these unstable periods. When party mechanisms no longer constrain or structure actions, we believe the “electoral connection” is especially important, and, thus, economic-based constituency factors must be included in models of vote choice. To explore this belief, we focus on a particularly contentious issue – the rechartering of the Bank of the United States (BUS) – which was dealt with before and after a partisan decomposition occurred in the House. Using measures developed by Poole and Rosenthal (1985, 1997), we find that the vote on the First BUS in 1811, during a stable partisan period, is organized along ideological lines. By 1816, the two-party system collapsed, and we do not find the vote on the Second BUS to exhibit much ideological structure. Conversely, we find that our pooled model predicts the vote on the Second BUS quite well, providing a substantial improvement in fit over the basic ideological classification.     

Mixing Communities? Riots,Regeneration and Renewal on Problem Estates in France and England

Riots, social exclusion, and endless improvement programmes have been a feature of the poorest neighbourhoods in France and England for the last thirty‐five years or more—particularly focused on large social housing estates. Programmes of improvement have followed similar paths in each country, with mixed success. This article sets out a short overview of these programmes in each country, then contrasts and compares the objectives, approaches, and outcomes. Each country has key elements of inter‐agency working, local and resident participation and planning, large‐scale building rehabilitation and demolition programmes, though the French system is more often based on specific local contracts between cities and the central departments. Similar evaluation outcome indicators and frameworks of ‘floor’ and ‘gap’ targets have been set, although evidence of success is limited and, particularly in France, there has been considerable criticism of the approach and framework. In parallel, however, the concept of ‘mixed communities’ has emerged as an alternative strategic approach—intuitively reasonable, politically popular, but lacking an evidence base and often ineffective in dealing with poverty.     

Trading old errors for new errors? The impact of electronic voting technology on party label votes in Brazil

In the mid-1990s, Brazil introduced electronic voting technology that reduced residual ballots and consequently expanded de facto enfranchisement. We employ a regression discontinuity design similar to that of previous studies of the Brazilian electronic voting technology to show that electronic technology also caused a sharp rise in party label votes (votos de legenda) that can only be explained by voting error. We show that this error offsets a large portion of the gains in enfranchisement, highlighting the fact that even generally positive changes in voting procedures can have negative effects. Our results also suggest that party label votes should not be considered a measure of party strength in the Brazilian context.     

How do interests,ideas, and institutions affect multisectoral governance? The case of tobacco governance in two Pacific small island developing states

Multisectoral governance has been recognized to be vital to regulate harmful commodity industries, yet countries struggle with reaching policy coherence due to government agencies' conflicting mandates and industry interference. Limited empirical evidence is available on how interests, ideas, and institutions intersect and influence multisectoral governance in low- and middle-income countries, particularly in Pacific small island developing states (PSIDS), often exploited by vested industry interests and whose non-communicable disease crisis commands urgent action to regulate harmful commodities. This study assessed the ways interests, ideas, and institutions intersect and shape multisectoral tobacco governance in PSIDS. Interviewee data collected in Fiji and Vanuatu show that the idea of individual responsibility, the limited recognition of commercial determinants of health, the centralization of authority, and the vulnerabilities of small island developing states, (including small population, land, economy, geographic isolation, and status as a developing economy), prevent these states from achieving policy coherence in multisectoral tobacco governance.     

The Incidental Pundit: Who Talks Politics with Whom,and Why?

Informal discussion plays a crucial role in democracy, yet much of its value depends on diversity. We describe two models of political discussion. The purposive model holds that people typically select discussants who are knowledgeable and politically similar to them. The incidental model suggests that people talk politics for mostly idiosyncratic reasons, as by-products of nonpolitical social processes. To adjudicate between these accounts, we draw on a unique, multisite, panel data set of whole networks, with information about many social relationships, attitudes, and demographics. This evidence permits a stronger foundation for inferences than more common egocentric methods. We find that incidental processes shape discussion networks much more powerfully than purposive ones. Respondents tended to report discussants with whom they share other relationships and characteristics, rather than based on expertise or political similarity, suggesting that stimulating discussion outside of echo chambers may be easier than previously thought.     

Is the causal relation between foreign direct investment,trade, and economic growth complement or substitute? The case of African countries

This study examines causal nexus between foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth for 25 African countries within a model that also takes into consideration trade openness using more recent panel data set over the period 1980–2018. We used panel bootstrapping cointegration techniques that account for cross‐sectional dependence to test whether there is a long‐run cointegration relationship or not. The Granger causality approach is employed to conduct predictive analysis among the panel series. Our findings indicate the presence of a long‐run equilibrium nexus between the variables, and we found a bidirectional causality between foreign direct investment, trade openness, and economic growth. This study provides an insight for governments and policymakers in this region to restructure FDI and trade policies in such a way that its positive spillover would spread across the rural areas and local firms, thereby leading to an all‐inclusive sustainable economic growth and development of African countries in the long run.     

Comment on David Listokin,Barbara Listokin,and Michael Lahr's “The contributions of historic preservation to housing and economic development”: Historic preservation in a neoliberal age

Abstract

Listokin, Listokin, and Lahr argue that historic preservation can function as a community development tool, but there are numerous deficiencies inherent in this method that make it a less‐than‐desirable way to revitalize. Historic preservation generally leads to gentrification that in turn displaces many low‐income households. The historic rehabilitation tax credit also represents a circuitous means of providing affordable housing that would be more effectively delivered through direct subsidy.     

Ganging up on Trump? Sino-German Relations and the Problem with Soft Balancing against the USA

Journal of Chinese Political Science - Soft balancing has recently been framed as a general foreign policy strategy that is basically open to any state. However, what coalitions can actually engage...