Price-wage nexus and the role of a tax system

The presented study was aimed to test empirically major economic hypotheses dealing with long-term relationships between wages, producer prices, prices of consumer goods and services, the consumer price index, productivity of labour, unemployment and payroll expenses other than wages themselves. It is particularly important for this approach to distinguish between net wages shaping employees’ decisions and gross wages driving employers’ decisions. Because the variables are generated by non-stationary stochastic processes integrated of order 1 and 2, the analytical tool applied was a vector equilibrium correction model, VEqCM. The findings demonstrate that prices and payroll expenses are the major sources of shocks in the system in question. Wages and prices (particularly producer prices) are the most sensitive to this type of stochastic trends. In the Polish economy prices are integrated of order two, so they can be effectively influenced by anti-inflationary policy.     

The price-wage inflationary spiral in Poland

In this paper the problem of price-wage relationship modelling in the case of a mixed economy is addressed. The empirical investigation was based on Polish annual data for the period of a centrally planned system (1964–1989) and on quarterly data for the period of transition towards a market economy (1990.1–1990.3). The traditional approach proved to be inappropriate because of the variables' nonstationarity. Identification of long-run behaviour was attempted by applying the two-step Engle-Granger's, or alternatively, Johansen's maximum likelihood (ML) procedures. The ML estimator provided better estimates of cointegration vectors and, even more important, allowed as many as three to be found. The main conclusion which can be drawn from the empirical findings is that three variables: price index, average wages and labour productivity, form a multi-dimensional equilibrium space. This property of the described phenomena needs to be taken into serious account when building macroeconometric models explaining the behaviour of the Polish economy. The existence of these three cointegration vectors is troublesome because of unusual problems of interpretation. However, if it is not as a result of misspecification and/or small sample bias, it proves that much remains to be learned about the price-wage mechanisms functioning in economies having a mixed character.     

Polish Stabilization: What can we learn from the I(2) Cointegration Analysis?

This paper investigates an array of nominal systems for the Polish economy, of domestic price level, import prices, exchange rates, money stock, nominal wages, and real output, and conducts I(1) and I(2) cointegration analyses. Post-stabilization monthly data are used, 1991:5-1999:12. A test for the presence of a price-wage spiral is performed, and the stabilization package is compared to its realization. The long-run homogeneity hypothesis, the impact of monetary and incomes policies, and of external sector variables on long and medium run price development are studied. It is found that in Poland, contrary to some earlier studies, the external sector is not important for the long run price development. On the contrary, very strong evidence is found of the cost-push inflation.     

Modelling wages in centrally planned economies: The case of Poland

The main idea developed in this paper is that rising excess demand for the labour force results in higher growth of wages over the ‘notional’ rate of growth. The rationale is that employees change their jobs searching for higher wages, and employers are willing to offer higher pay in order to get additional workers. This relationship is highly nonlinear, and can be regarded as an extension of the idea known as the Phillips curve to the area of ‘negative’ rate of unemployment. Additionally, one can observe that if the disequilibrium intensity in the labour market is small, its changes cause stronger reactions of wages in strategic branches than in the remaining sectors of the economy. It is similar to the situation of excess demand for labour. If there is a high rate of unemployment, reductions of wages affect more branches of secondary importance for the economy. The empirical investigation is based on Polish data covering the time period from 1964 through 1984. As excess demand for labour is unobservable, a proxy is used as an indicator of disequilibrium. It is introduced to the equation explaining the rate of growth of average wages, in addition to the rate of productivity growth of labour and the rate of inflation. Estimates are derived for 10 industry branches and sectors of the economy. The results confirm the initial hypothesis.     

Testing for Structural Change in Cointegrated Relationships: Analysis of Price–Wages Models for Poland and Hungary

In previous studies concerning short- and long-run relationships for price–wage models, the cointegration analysis has been developed assuming the existence of a unique cointegration parametrisation. These empirical results reveal the presence of significant relationships, both in the short and in the long run, among prices, wages, labour productivity and exchange rate. In this paper we intend to develop the possibility of a more general type of cointegration, allowing for a change at an unknown time period in the sample. At this end we will consider mainly the long-run relationship among these variables using the testing procedure suggested by Gregory and Hansen (1996a,b). This permits us to consider a multivariate extension of the endogenous break univariate approach and, in the meantime, this enables us to test for cointegration in the presence of possible structural breaking cointegrated relationships under the alternative. The empirical analysis of a multivariate model for price–wage relationship both for Poland and Hungary, over the period 1970–1996, is presented and discussed.     

Price-wage dynamics in a transition economy: The case of Poland

In this paper we analyse the wage-price relationship of an economy in transition characterized by important structural changes. It is known (see Perron, 1989) that structural breaks in stationary time series can induce apparent unit roots. The stationarity analysis of the series employed in the present model is conducted jointly with the assumption that the breakpoint location is unknown. We follow a testing procedure recently proposed by Zivot and Andrews (1992). Cointegration analysis of wages and prices in the presence of structural breaks finds empirical evidence in favour of two cointegrating vectors involving prices and wages. Our analysis focuses on the different structural behaviour of the price-wage dynamic relationship in the short and long term; we also demonstrate the relative importance of import prices as a source of wage-price fluctuations.     

The Effect of Incomes Policies on Inflation in Bulgaria and Poland

Transition countries, and many other countries with incomplete markets, have faced long periods with both high inflation and unemployment. Policies to reduce inflation without high unemployment include incomes policies, which were widely employed in transition countries. This paper studies the effects of incomes policies on inflation in Bulgaria and Poland in 1990-1993. The actual policies, which were complex and changing, are examined. The policies do not appear well-designed in a technical sense to reduce inflation. A time-series analysis is made which includes standard determinants of inflation including past inflation, wage increases, exchange rate changes, and monetary changes, plus a dummy for incomes policies. The regressions are fairly successful in fitting standard factors that should influence inflation, particularly the exchange rate and unemployment in Bulgaria and wages and unemployment in Poland. They find a fairly substantial inflation-reducing effect from the Bulgarian policy but no significant results from the Polish policy.     

Microeconomic efficiency in the Polish enterprise during the NEM period

Microeconomic efficiency in the Polish enterprise has been an important aspect of nearly all economic reforms in Poland. This paper develops a model of a hypothetical Polish enterprise during the NEM period. The enterprise is viewed as maximizing an objective function which is a linear combination of production added and profits within a short run planning period. The optimality conditions for factor usage are derived and compared with the efficient (profit maximizing) firm. It is found that an increase in the emphasis on production added in the evaluation of enterprise performance (in an attempt by central planners to increase output) may yield results contrary to the central planners' desires. Output will actually fall unless enterprises receive a higher level of subsidies. A brief discussion of the institutional characteristics unique to the Polish economic system is presented as well.     

What went wrong with the Hungarian consumption function? An econometric investigation of the time series aggregate consumption function for Hungary for 1960–1989

The paper focuses on the time series aggregate consumption function for the Hungarian economy. The empirical econometric analysis presented produces several new results. First, it shows that the income and consumption variables used in this type of model by previous studies are I(2) variables. Consequently, error correction models formulated in terms of their first differences are mis-specified. Second, it provides a strong empirical evidence supporting the view that consumption (and thus saving) was (real) interest rate elastic during the period under investigation, having impact both on the long run and on the short relationships between income and consumption. Third, it provides empirical evidence on choosing the proper income variable in the consumption function. The model selection results clearly supports the model with unadjusted total real money income variable. Fourth, it shows that for the period 1960–1986 a correctly specified and stable error correction model can be established. Finally, the analysis shows that when used for the period beyond 1986, this model suffers from a structural break.     

The failure of effective technological transfer in Polish industry

Central planners in Poland have continuously emphasized the importance of increasing factor productivity as a major goal of Polish development policy and have included this goal as an integral part of every economic reform proposal of the last two decades. In the decade of the 1970s a new development strategy was initiated which counted heavily on the import of more technologically advanced machinery and equipment and the purchase of licenses and production processes from the West. This paper documents the tremendous increase in Western imports and the purchase of licenses which took place in the 1970s, and which would then be expected to generate an increase in joint factor productivity due to technological change. Empirical analysis, however, indicates that there was no effective transfer of the technology. Joint factor productivity for total industry calculated as a residual in estimated production functions, which include imported inputs, has a zero rate of growth from 1970 to 1978 (using quarterly data). Disaggregating and using annual data over a longer sample period yields estimates of the rate of growth of joint factor productivity which increase slightly for total industry in the 1973–1977 period. For the electrical and mechanical branch which received large numbers of license and joint production agreements the rate of growth of joint factor productivity remained unchanged. The results indicate that systemic factors such as central planning, managerial inhibitions and supply bottlenecks out-weighed any potential increase in factor productivity as a result of technology transfer.     

Gender Pay Gap in Poland

In this paper we examine the gender pay gap in Poland over 1987–1996, i.e., shortly before and during the transition to market economy. The principle source of data used throughout the paper is the Household Budget Survey conducted by the Polish Central Statistical Office. The study documents three major results. First, the transition to market economy in Poland favored women substantially in terms of relative earnings differentials. The gender pay gap decreased by 10.2 log% points and the position of mean female in male wage distribution went up by 9.9 percentiles over 1987–1996. By 1995, the values of these measures reached the level observed in industrial economies such as the U.K., Austria, Italy or Australia. Second, rising relative skills of women and rising returns to skills explain about half of the fall in the gender pay gap over 1987–1996. Third, the pay gap did not follow a smooth adjustment process. 1989, the year of the first democratic parliamentary elections, which resulted in forming the first non-communist government, saw the most spectacular change, although actual market reforms began one year after. The changes in the early phase of the transition were mostly driven by sudden shifts in relative wages and employment across industries. Afterwards, the pay gap measures stabilized, partly because rising overall wage inequalities offset the advantages of females due to observed skills.     

Analysis of forensically used autosomal short tandem repeat markers in Polish and neighboring populations

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the homogeneity of Polish populations with respect to STRs chosen as core markers of the Polish Forensic National DNA Intelligence Database, and to provide reference allele frequencies and to explore the genetic interrelationship between Poland and neighboring countries. The allele frequency distribution of 10 STRs included in the SGMplus kit was analyzed among 2176 unrelated individuals from 6 regional Polish populations and among 4321 individuals from Germany (three samples), Austria, The Netherlands, Sweden, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Belarus, Ukraine and the Russian Federation (six samples). The statistical approach consisted of AMOVA, calculation of pairwise Rst values and analysis by multidimensional scaling. We found homogeneity of present day Poland and consistent differences between Polish and German populations which contrasted with relative similarities between Russian and German populations. These discrepancies between genetic and geographic distances were confirmed by analysis of an independent data set on Y chromosome STRs. Migrations of Goths, Viking influences, German settlements in the region of Volga river and/or forced population resettlements and other events related to World War II are the historic events which might have caused these finding.     

Dealing sensibly with the threat of disruption in trade with China: the analytics of increased economic interdependence and accelerated technological innovation

There is now widespread concern in Washington over the large and growing U.S.-China trade deficit. This concern is premised on the view that the large trade deficit has reduced U.S. welfare by increasing unemployment and reducing wages. But these alleged negative effects cannot be seen. The average unemployment rate in 1999–2006 was 5 percent compared to 6 percent in 1991–1998; and the total compensation (in 2005 prices) of a full-time worker rose from $46,614 in 1991 to $50,523 in 1998 to $55,703 in 2005. The rise in average labor compensation (measured to include benefits) was not caused by a large income increase for high-skilled workers and a moderate income decline for low-skilled workers. The level of compensation for blue-collar workers also rose in the 1991–2006 period. The continued rise in US labor income in 1991–2006 might appear surprising because the post-1990 integration of the Soviet bloc, India and China into the international division of labor has doubled the number of workers participating in the world economy. Accelerated globalization was, however, not the only significant economic development during this period; accelerated technological innovations were perhaps even more significant in their economic effects. The latter development produced large productivity gains that enabled the US labor income to rise despite the greater competition from imports, continued relocation of production facilities to foreign countries, and increased immigration into the United States. The outcome from the accelerated pace of globalization and the increased pace of technological innovation is a more frequent turnover in jobs in the US, which translates into increased worker anxiety, and hence increased demand for protection. The optimum solution to the present trade tensions is a policy package that emphasizes multilateral actions. It is bad economics and bad politics to dwell only on just one region (China alone must change), and/or dwell on just one instrument (RMB appreciation alone). China should, in the short run, expand state expenditure to soak up excess savings with an emphasis on import-intensive investments; in the short run, accelerate import liberalisation beyond the commitments made in the negotiations for WTO membership; increase the rate of yuan appreciation to reduce the large depreciation against the Euro in 2006–2007, and speed up the appreciation if inflation rises; lower precautionary savings by providing public social insurance; and improve financial intermediation by replacing the monopoly state banking system with a predominantly domestic private banking system. The United States should quicken the reduction in fiscal imbalance; introduce tax incentives to raise the savings rate; and expand and improve trade adjustment programs and social safety nets, especially those that upgrade the skill of the younger workers. Most important in the face of rising protectionist sentiments around the world, the United States and China must work together to bring the Doha Round trade negotiations to a successful conclusion in order to prevent the WTO system from being eroded.     

Specification of dynamic wage-price relations in Poland (1980–1991)

This paper focuses on the analysis of wage-price relationships during the period 1980–1991 in Poland. The dynamics of wage and price series under radical structural changes are examined, as well as the impact of earlier sharp price increases. The process of wages-to-prices adjustment both in the long- and short-term is analysed. The hypothesis that the introduction of economic reform (at the beginning of 1990) would result in a tendency towards the stabilization of real wages is investigated. This is done through integration and cointegration analysis of wage and price series with special attention being paid to the problems arising from theI(2) character of the variables investigated. The concept of polynomial cointegration is applied to formulate error correction terms for the short-run model of wages. The computations have been made using quarterly data. The results reflect an inhomogeneity of the period investigated, especially the effects of the introduction of economic reform at the beginning of 1990. The nonstationarity of real wages is confirmed, but not their tendency towards stabilization.     

我国环境规制与经济增长关系的区域差异分析——基于东、中、西部面板数据的实证研究

根据1998—2006年中国30个省区的面板数据,运用相关的计量经济学方法,对我国东、中、西部地区环境规制与经济增长的关系进行实证研究的结果表明,我国环境规制水平与经济增长的关系呈现出明显的区域差异性。长期内,东、中、西部地区环境规制水平与经济增长均互为因果关系,短期内东部地区环境规制水平对经济增长影响显著,中部地区两者之间关系不显著,而西部地区经济增长在一定程度上推动了环境规制水平提升。据此应当采取相应的政策措施,以促进中国各区域环境规制与经济增长的良性互动和协调发展。     

Identification of the Class Characteristics in the Handwriting of Polish People Writing in English

Abstract: An investigation was carried out to identify the class characteristics of Polish people writing in English and to specifically identify those characteristics that separate Polish handwriting from English handwriting. In the first stage, 40 Polish and 40 English handwriting samples were collected and systematically examined. In total, 31 features were identified that occurred in ≥25% of the Polish handwriting samples and therefore considered class characteristics. Of these, chi‐square analyses identified 21 class characteristics that occurred significantly more in Polish compared to English handwriting. Twenty‐one of the class characteristics in the Polish handwriting had similar constructions to the copybook pattern thus supporting the theory that class characteristics frequently stem from the taught writing system. In the second stage, an algorithm was developed using seventeen of the class characteristics that successfully discriminated between a further 13 Polish and 12 English handwriting samples.     

The stem family and labour markets: Reflections on households and firms in Japan's economic development

This paper examines a view that the traditional stem family system was one of the preconditions for Japan's modern economic development, focusing on labour markets and skill formation practices. The paper begins with a brief look at the Japanese stem family household formation rules. Then, exploration is made, first, on the self-employed, the largest sector of the early modern economy; second, the merchant house and its employment patterns as an origin of present day large corporations' employment system and skill formation and human capital management practices; and third, workshop industries, which formed middle and lower layers of the manufacturing sector in the period of industrialisation. Finally, women's marriage behaviour is examined in relation to labour markets, especially changes in real wages. All this is an attempt to go some way towards a better understanding of the ways in which the family economy and corporate firms worked in economic development, rather than to suggest an alternative hypothesis on the relationship between family and household factors and subsequent economic development.     

A Stochastic Frontier Analysis of Output Level and Growth in Poland and Western Economies

This paper uses Bayesian stochastic frontier methods to measure the productivity gap between Poland and Western countries that existed before the beginning of the main Polish economic reform. Using data for 20 Western economies, Poland and Yugoslavia (1980–1990) we estimate a translog stochastic frontier and make inference about individual efficiencies. Following the methodology proposed in our earlier work, we also decompose output growth into technical, efficiency and input changes and examine patterns of growth in the period under consideration.     

Choice,Discrimination, and the Motherhood Penalty

Recent studies have documented substantial penalties associated with motherhood and suggest that discrimination plays an important role in producing them. In this article, I argue that the degree to which motherhood is conceptualized as a choice affects the penalties associated with making this choice. Two methods are employed to evaluate this argument. The first method is an analysis of state differences in the wage penalties for motherhood, in which hierarchical linear modeling is used with data from the 1988–2004 Current Population Survey. The second method is a hiring experiment in a highly controlled setting. The wage analysis shows that, net of the usual individual and state‐level factors that affect wages, mothers are penalized more in states where motherhood is perceived to be a woman's choice. The hiring experiment distinguishes between productivity‐based and discrimination‐based explanations for the penalty and provides strong evidence for a causal relationship between perceptions of choice and discrimination against mothers.