The French presidential election of 24 April–8 May and the general election of 5–12 June 1988

The French presidential and legislative elections of 1988 and their aftermath provided a full test of the constitutional arrangements of the Fifth Republic. This article describes the tactical considerations behind President Mitterrand's own campaign for re-election and behind the manoeuvrings of the various candidates on the right. It reports on the conduct and outcome of the presidential campaign and on the decision to move on to an immediate dissolution of the National Assembly. The campaign and the paradoxical outcome of the return to scrutin à deux tours are fully examined.     

The electoral effectiveness of constituency campaigning in the 2010 British general election: The ‘triumph’ of Labour?

This article establishes a model of likely campaign effectiveness, before examining the intensity of constituency campaigning at the 2010 general election in Britain and its subsequent impact on electoral outcomes, using both aggregate and individual level data. It shows that constituency campaigning yielded benefits in varying degrees for all three main parties and that Labour’s constituency campaign efforts were effective despite the electoral context, and ultimately affected the overall outcome of the election. These findings have significant implications for our understanding of the circumstances under which campaigns are likely to be more or less effective, and provide further evidence that a carefully managed campaign stands the most chance of delivering tangible electoral payoffs.     

Forecasting the 2015 British general election: The 1992 debacle all over again?

This article introduces and reviews a set of twelve academic forecasts of the 2015 British general election. Along with the vast majority of others including journalists and betting markets, they failed by a big margin to predict that the Conservatives would emerge with an overall majority of seats. Several suffered from the 1992 scale inaccuracies of the vote-intention opinion polls. Forecasts based on other data sources typically did a bit better, but also fell short. Nonetheless, this was not 1992 all over again. The dramatic collapse of the Liberal Democrats and rise of the SNP, UKIP and Greens were successfully anticipated. Also this collection includes numerous methodological advancements, with several new methods and developments to established approaches.     

The 2015 Spanish election: the times they are a’ changing

The Spanish legislative election of 2015 speaks of change. This is the end of the traditional two-party system and the beginning of a new political era marked by institutional renewal. The Socialist Party and the Partido Popular have both lost significant parliamentary force, whereas two new parties (Podemos, and Ciudadanos) are now crucial to ensure stable government majorities. This new parliamentary scenario seems to better mirror the political pluralism of a changing society which has already demonstrated for change in striking events such as the 15-M Movement. However, political parties are far from showing conciliatory aspirations, possibly because a new election is suddenly a realistic option. This report outlines the political context of the election, indicates the main topics during the campaign and discusses the results.     

The 2015 Catalan election: a de facto referendum on independence?

The 2015 Catalan regional election, held on 27 September, was framed as a proxy for an independence referendum by the pro-independence parties. This was meant to bypass the PP-led central government's opposition to permit an official referendum. After an election campaign clearly dominated by the independence issue, the results delivered a majority of seats but not of votes for the pro-independence camp. However, the reading of the results as a de facto referendum is not straightforward. Growing polarization around the independence issue resulted in the emergence of two main blocs, for and against independence; in the polarization of stances within the blocs; and in substantial changes in the Catalan party system. The lack of agreement between the secessionist parties over the reappointment of Artur Mas as president almost triggered a new election but, in a last-minute move, Mas stepped aside. The new government aims to declare independence in 18 months.