In Memoriam: C. C. Aronsfeld (1910–2002)

ABSTRACT

Enoch Powell's ‘rivers of blood’ speech, delivered forty years ago, in April 1968, had a significant impact on British politics. Commentators are divided between those who have defended Powell's remarks and those who have condemned them. Hillman evaluates the responses, and reassesses the speech. He focuses on five key issues: Powell's motives; whether the speech was racist and/or racialist; the relationship between the speech and Conservative Party policies; Powell's electoral impact; and his forecasts with regard to numbers of people with minority ethnic backgrounds within the population.     

Economic voting in Portugal, 2002–2009

This article tests the economic voting hypothesis in Portugal during the three most recent first-order elections (2002, 2005, 2009), trying to make sense of the multiplicity of choices in the Portuguese party system. We observed that positive sociotropic perceptions increase the probability to vote for the incumbent, even when we control for long-term factors of vote choice; egotropic effects are weaker. Negative economic perceptions not only lead to a higher probability to vote for the major opposition party, but, in some cases, increase the probabilities to vote for small parties or to refrain from voting. Sociotropic effects are actually quite constant in this timeframe, but their strength to explain the vote is lower than that of ideology and (before 2009) religiosity.     

‘In the way’: intelligence,Eden, and British foreign policy towards Italy, 1937–38*

In 1937–1938 a divide emerged over Italian appeasement between Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain and his Foreign Minister, Anthony Eden. Chamberlain wanted to appease Mussolini with de jure recognition of his Ethiopian conquest. Eden disagreed and even resigned over the matter. Historians have struggled to define clearly Eden’s resistance. The intelligence archive allows for a reassessment of British policy towards Italy and Eden’s resignation. It shows that secret intelligence was central to Eden’s decisions and demonstrates the importance of intelligence in diplomatic history. It shows that Eden, almost alone, correctly read ambiguous intelligence on Mussolini and recognized him as an enemy of Britain.     

Dynamic ideal point estimation for the European Parliament, 1980–2009

The European Parliament is one of most prominent substantive applications of NOMINATE to the study of roll call voting outside the U.S., yielding tremendous insights into the voting patterns of the world’s most important transnational parliament. However, this body of research cannot facilitate comparisons of ideological shifts over time, because it exclusively employs scaling models that are static. In this paper, I produce dynamic ideal point estimates for the first six European Parliaments from 1980 to 2009 that can be compared over time. These estimates show a significant amount of ideological shifting for some Members of the European Parliament. I explain the measurement strategy, and compare cross-sectional estimates to existing measures as a validity check. I also offer three applications highlighting the types projects that scholars of the European Parliament might wish to use these dynamic measures to study further.     

In search of the ‘Other’ in Asia: Russia–China relations revisited

This paper argues that Russia and China are partners of consequence and that the neglect of the normative dimension of the Sino-Russian relationship has led its impact on global governance to be undervalued and misunderstood. Following a constructivist approach, the paper examines the shared norms underlying an ever closer Sino-Russian partnership, despite divergent interests in a number of areas. A first section examines how shared norms lead Russia and China to define their identity similarly, facilitate joint actions, and constrain their individual policy choices. For Russia, elaborating its own unique identity is crucial to its claim to global status, though complicated by interactions with multiple ‘Others.’ Russia's effort to engage Asian partners is often viewed as hedging against China, but as second section argues that Russian engagement in Asia is better understood in terms of Russia's effort to define an Asian identity. A third section highlights the securitization/desecuritization dynamic in Sino-Russian economic relations. Xi Jinping's efforts to redefine China's global role reinforces its tendency to desecuritize the vulnerabilities that lead China to seek economic cooperation with Russia. Russia, fearing becoming a ‘resource appendage’ of China, then securitizes economic relations with China.     

Managing the MedUSA: comparing the political economy of US–Japan,US–German,and US–UK relations

Abstract

International experience tells that public services often fail to work for those in need. To make things work requires complex institutional changes that are difficult to come by, let alone sustain. This paper examines the situation of rural public service provision in China and a local attempt to revamp the service provision institution through adjusting the mix of state and the market. It reveals the dialectical process of policy evolution whereby innovation, and resistance to it, has emerged.