Fiscal restraint and the political economy of EMU

While the principle of delegation has become well established on the national level for monetary policy, fiscal policies remain in the hands of policy makers depending on rent-seeking interest groups. We argue that the Maastricht Treaty provides a unique international commitment that enables governments to follow restrictive fiscal policies by attributing their negative side-effects to Europe, and to implement austerity measures despite rising unemployment or a decline in growth. Hence, the popularity of the European idea is instrumented to enforce fiscal discipline. The paper outlines the political economy framework and presents new econometric evidence.     

Fiscal institutions, fiscal policy and sovereign risk premia in EMU

We investigate the effect of fiscal institutions such as the strength of the finance minister in the budget process and deficits on interest rate spreads of Eurozone countries. Deficits significantly increase risk premia measured by relative swap spreads. The effect of deficits is significantly lower under EMU. This effect partly results from neglecting the role of fiscal institutions. After controlling for institutional changes, fiscal policy remains a significant determinant of risk premia in EMU. Better institutions are connected with lower risk premia. Furthermore deficits matter less for risk premia in countries with better institutions. Markets acknowledge that better institutions reduce fiscal difficulties rendering the monitoring of annual developments less important.     

Budgeting in Slovenia During the Democratic Transition

Slovenia represents an interesting and important case in the study of comparative budgeting in post-socialist countries during democratization and economic reform. Compared to Hungary and other nations in the region, Slovenia has had more budget stability and has maintained fiscal balances through shared political norms and strong ministerial guardianship. Political culture, institutional capacity, and the nature of governing coalitions all affected budget outcomes. In general, Slovenia has moved more quickly to reform its budgetary institutions and processes but still faces a range of difficult budget issues and choices.     

Tax and Expenditure Limitations and the Fiscal Response of Local Government: Asymmetric Intra-Local Fiscal Effects

This article empirically investigates the effects of introducing statewide measures to limit the ability of local jurisdictions to raise revenue or make expenditures. It does so in intervals of five years over a 25-year period, using fiscal observations for 31,804 units of local government in 787 metropolitan counties across the contiguous United States. Specifically explored is the effect of tax and expenditure limitations on the variation in revenues and expenditures between general purpose governments and school districts within county areas. Rather than imposing a uniform constraint across jurisdictions, tax and expenditure limitations (TELs) are associated with increased variation across both general purpose and school district revenues and expenditures and, by implication, increased service differentials. Effects are found to be asymmetric, with increased variation greatest within counties comprising the urban core and those with relatively more disadvantaged populations. The implications are that TELs are most constraining on the ability of governments serving economically less prosperous and at risk populations to meet public service needs. Such differential effects are of more than questionable merit and are the result of the application of blunt instruments to what is often an undemonstrated need. The outcome impairs both the efficiency and responsiveness of the local public sector.     

转型期政府与市场的关系

我国目前正处在从计划经济向市场经济转轨的发展过程中,政府与市场的关系无疑是当前的一个热点问题。市场失灵的存在,要求政府对经济进行宏观调控,但政府也存在政府失效的问题,转型期政府与市场的界限不能完全予以确定,然而政府由无限政府逐渐向有限政府转变,会减少政府失效所带来的损失。     

我国社会转型期面临的各种风险及其化解

当前中国正积极活跃在全球化的舞台上,处于重要的社会转型时期,因而面临着经济、政治、社会、生态等一系列风险的冲击.这些风险对社会主义和谐社会构建带来了严峻的挑战.这就需要从增强风险意识、加强风险管理、倡导科学发展等方面着手,规避和化解风险,实现社会和谐.     

Federal Arrangements as a Peacemaking Device During South Africa's Transition to Democracy

Federal arrangements are often used as a way of keeping deeplydivided societies together. In particular, where divisions,be they ethnic, linguistic, or religious, develop in violentconflict or the threat of civil war, constitutional arrangementsfor self-rule and shared rule have been put forward as a keyto peace. The federal distribution of power is then used tosatisfy sectoral demands for self-determination.     

转型时期我国第三部门缺失与构建

第三部门既具有积极作用,又存在失灵现象。我国第三部门缺失的原因既包括潜在的营利动机和责任监督的困境的内在因素,也包括社会因发展程度的一致性不足、组织生成机制的偏颇、资源投入的不足、社会道德约束的失范的外在因素。构建公民社会、培育第三部门,强化监督、创设外部责任约束环境,优化内部治理、加强自律规范,是构建和设计我国第三部门的主要方略。     

Fiscal Structure and the Post-Proposition 13 Fiscal Regime in California's Cities

Two and a half decades after the passage of Proposition 13 in 1978, California state and local governments continue to feel the intended and unintended effects of tax and expenditure limitations. While considerable time has passed since voters enacted Proposition 13, the effects of the property tax revolt continue to be dramatic. This article examines the fiscal structure of California's city governments from 1972 to 2002. The analysis reveals that California's cities have become less reliant upon property tax revenues and more reliant upon charges and fees, and have not increased reliance upon sales tax revenues as much as expected.     

The Effects of Political and Fiscal Incentives on Local Government Behavior: An Analysis of Fiscal Slack in China

This study examines the determinants of fiscal slack from the perspective of Chinese local government officials. Given China's rapid economic growth over the past 30-plus years, Chinese local governments reportedly hold huge slack resources that attract public scrutiny. In an effort to improve their fiscal performance, some localities recently established budget stabilization funds, following a top-down initiative. However, it remains unclear to what extent fiscal slack has accumulated and which factors affect slack resource levels of Chinese local governments. By employing a panel dataset (249 prefecture-level cities, 1999–2009), this study finds that political and fiscal factors exert significant influence over local officials’ decisions about slack resource levels. The findings of the study bear implications for establishing fiscal rules and improving the performance of sub-national governments in China and other countries.     

An Overview of Adjustments to the Budget Enforcement Act Discretionary Spending Caps

This article reviews the adjustments that have been made to the limits on discretionary federal spending that were enacted as part of the Budget Enforcement Act of 1990. Each type of adjustment authorized by that act is described, and the actual adjustments made by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget are discussed. Tables that display the amounts and timing of the adjustments are used to support the narrative. The article also discusses the relationship of cap adjustments to changes in the federal budget deficit.     

State Saving Behavior: Effects of Two Fiscal and Budgetary Institutions

This paper explores how state saving behavior is affected by two fiscal/budgetary institutions—budget stabilization funds (BSF) and balanced budget requirements (BBR). While adopted for different reasons, BSF and BBR could have significant effects on state savings behavior depending on their design features. We empirically examine the effects of BSF and BBR using a panel data set that covers three business cycles, controlling for budgetary institutions, state economy, social services, politics, and business cycles. The paper finds that adopting BSF and BBR can raise savings by 2 and 3 percentage points, respectively; however, the effects depend crucially on the devices' design.     

The Impact of Fiscal Policy and Deregulation on Shadow Economies in Transition Countries: The Case of Ukraine

A model of Ukrainian shadow economy moneydemand is estimated that includes newregulatory burden, tax complexity, andsoft-budget constraint variables. Thismodel is analyzed to determine the causesand dynamics of the Ukrainian shadoweconomy and to assess the effectiveness ofstate measures undertaken to reduce itssize. The direct tax burden, thebroadly defined regulatory burden, thecomplexity of the tax system, andsoft-budget constraints for enterprises are found tobe important causes of unofficial activity.The main explanatory factors forthe estimated decline of the shadow economyin recent years are explained and it is argued that theevidence has implications beyond the caseof Ukraine.     

Mexican Economic and Fiscal Policies to Sustain Political Stability

During the 1980s, Mexico was in a state of crisis. Its economic prosperity collapsed in 1982, and its political system almost self-destructed in 1988. Yet by 1994, the economy was once again growing and the party that had ruled the country since 1929 appeared poised to win the national election of August 1994, despite the traumatic assassination of the ruling party candidate for president. How did the Mexican regime do it? This article examines the role of economic policies in restoring the fortunes of the Mexican regime.     

财政政策与居民消费需求:非线性效应与效应的非对称性

财政政策的凯恩斯效应与新古典效应之争是理论界研究的前沿问题之一.本文认为财政政策对居民消费需求的凯恩斯效应与新古典效应并非相互排斥,反而更有可能相互共存,因此,探讨不同财政时期究竞何种效应处于支配地位才是解决问题的关键.本文首先分别运用凯恩斯和新古典两种理论诊释财政政策工具对居民消费需求的作用机制,然后通过建立居民消费需求的固定效应变截距面板数据模型,并以24个OECD发达国家1980-2007年的跨国数据为例,实证检验了政府消费、税收和转移支付对居民消费需求的影响效应.研究发现:一是政府消费、税收和转移支付在扩张或紧缩两个特殊时期存在显著的非线性效应;二是虽然财政政策工具对居民消费需求的总效应通常都表现为凯恩斯效应,但特殊时期转移支付的总效应则为非凯恩斯效应;三是政府消费、税收与转移支付对居民消费需求的效应在扩张与紧缩两个特殊时期之间有显著的非对称性.     

The Impact of State Rainy Day Funds in Easing State Fiscal Crises During the 1990–1991 Recession

This article examines the degree to which rainy day funds eased the fiscal stress experienced by states during the 1990–1991 recession. In the first section, a state fiscal policy of neutrality over the business cycle is used as a benchmark for evaluating the use of budget stabilization funds. The next section looks at data from the last three recessions to see how recessions have affected the taxes and expenditures of states. A measure of degree of fiscal stress experienced by each state during the 1990–1991 recession is then calculated. These results are used to empirically investigate the impact of explicit state rainy day funds in easing state fiscal stress. Next, the article examines whether states that had rainy day funds in 1989 were more likely to have less fiscal stress, and whether the specific deposit and withdrawal provisions of these funds made a difference.     

公共政策变迁的过程理论及其阐释

公共政策变迁是人类社会基本的正式制度变迁模式,是围绕集体行动而开展的自发的或通过人为安排的秩序演进过程。政策变迁除了呈现为政策时滞、政策博弈、政策演进三个结构性逻辑外,还表现为政策失效、政策创新、政策均衡三个阶段性逻辑。任何一项公共政策的变迁都可能无法回避均衡—失效—创新—均衡这种方程式循环。因此,研究公共政策变迁的过程理论对于理解和掌握政策变迁的内在规律具有重要的理论意义和应用价值。     

Economic Reforms and Their Impacts on Informal Payments for Government Services in Transition Countries

This article examines whether economic reforms in transition countries reduce the incidence of informal payments to government officials. Using the 2009 EBRD-World Bank Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Survey (BEEPS) data, empirical models of the likelihood and frequency that firms are asked to make informal payments are estimated. Eight measures of economic reform developed by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) are also included in the analysis, both individually and as a combined index of overall reform, to test whether reforms reduce informal payments. Firm, country, and economic reform factors are all found to have an impact. In particular, the overall reform index and all but one of the eight EBRD reform indices are found to significantly reduce informal payments. The marginal effect of a one-standard-deviation increase in the overall reform index is to reduce the probability of a firm reporting that it gives a gift by 2.5% and reduce the probability that the firm reports that gift giving is a usual practice in its industry by 4%. Enterprise reforms, markets and trade reforms, financial sector reforms, and infrastructure reforms all have the effect of reducing the likelihood and frequency of informal payments.