Trilateral relations in a globalizing world. ASEM and the United States

Europe, the United States and East Asia are linked together through bilateral relations as well as a kind of trilateral relationship. There are three legs: Looking from a European perspective, the strongest relationship is the transatlantic relationship; secondly, there is a growing relationship between the United States and East Asia; and thirdly, the weakest link is the European-East Asian relationship.In this article I will focus, first, on this global triangle between East Asia, Europe and the United States. Secondly, I will discuss the question whether ASEM, APEC and ASEAN are competing or cooperating. Thirdly, I will analyze the question how the US looks at ASEM. Concluding I will argue that the US should take ASEM more seriously – not least because of US interests.This paper was written as part of a project on Backlash against Globalization that is supported by the Otto Wolff Foundation, Cologne, and The German Marshall Fund of the United States, Washington, DC.     

中国与东亚互动的政治经济分析

自改革开放以来，中国开始推行融人世界的国际战略。在此期间，中国与东亚地区其他国家之间的互动也渐趋形成，并逐步走向成熟。中国与东亚近邻的互动包含政治、经济、安全等多个层面的内容，且这些方面往往彼此交织在一起。因而，仅仅从单一角度出发对中国与东亚之间的互动进行解析，难免有所偏颇。基于此原因，本文试从政治与经济相互作用的理论视角出发，对中国与东亚互动的缘起、运行等问题进行简要的探讨。     

东亚价值与东亚共同体建立的构想

最近几年，在经济全球化背景下就东亚问题进行研究所得到的结论是在东亚地区存在一种共同的价值。东亚是否存在一种价值？“东亚价值”是什么？“东亚价值”对当今世界面临的一系列问题和东亚共同体建设发挥了什么样的作用？这些正是笔者关心和探讨的问题。     

挑战与机遇:东亚一体化视野中的非传统安全合作

当前,传统安全威胁较冷战时期大为减弱,而形形色色的非传统安全威胁成为危害国家和地区安全甚至全球稳定的主要因素。东亚非传统安全合作较为成功,在实践中取得了明显成效,但客观上还存在一些不足之处。非传统安全合作增强了东亚国家的相互了解与互信,培育了地区认同意识和归属意识,促进了东亚合作机制向深度和广度拓展,为一体化深入发展提供了坚实的结构支撑。另一方面,东亚特殊的安全格局和错综复杂的历史与现实矛盾使地区非传统安全合作面临诸多挑战,同时也蕴涵了重要机遇。     

东亚文化圈和东亚价值观的历史考察——以中日韩(朝)越为主体的历史分析

本文拟对东亚文化圈和东亚价值观及两者之间的关系作一个历史的考察,进而分析传统的东亚价值观与构建当代价值观的关系。当代东亚各国都已成为现代化程度不同的独立的主权国家,东亚经济社会的发展、合作的加强和一体化的要求都使他们重新审观东亚各国共同拥有的历史文化遗产尤其是传统的东亚价值观的作用,特别是它在构建当代东亚价值观的作用。但一个时代有一个时代的价值观,儒家伦理已不可能作为当代价值观的体系和核心,但就有着深广影响的传统的东亚价值观和思想文化遗产而言,其优秀成份对于构建21世纪的东亚价值观大有裨益,需要我们取其精华,挖掘、整理、诠释。     

The challenge of institution-building in Asia and its implications for Asia-Europe relations

  East Asia, including Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia, has developed tightly-linked production/distribution networks through globalizing corporate activities. The vertical chain of production in East Asia has been even more sophisticated than economic integration in East Europe or Latin America. However, the political environment of East Asia for trade and investment has been far from borderless. The integration effort at the policy level has been very much limited so far, due to the historical background as well as geopolitics surrounding East Asia. The Asian currency/financial crisis provided these countries a historical turning point. After the burst of the crisis, East Asians realized that they have to take care of themselves in their difficulties, not depending on outside forces. A natural choice for them was to step into the realm of regionalism. In 1998, Japan and Korea officially announced that they would discard the long-lasting GATT/WTO-only approach and adapt the multi-layered approach, including both regionalism and multilateralism. The ultimate goal of regionalism would be a region-wide integration including ASEAN+3. As a steppingstone, Japan signed the Japan-Singapore Economic Partnership Agreement (JSEPA) in January 2002. In a parallel move, the ASEAN and China Leaders announced in November 2001 the establishment of an ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) within 10 years. This article will follow up the most recent advancement of regional institutional building in East Asia with the emphasis on peculiar characteristics of economic integration in the region and discuss its implications for Asia-Europe relations. This paper is heavily drawn from Kimura (2002, 2003).     

试论东盟对东亚共同体形成所起的作用

近10余年来由于受到“全球化”大潮的冲击,在东亚也出现了“地域化”思潮。面对同样的挑战,东亚各国已经意识到采取共同的经济文化防卫机制的迫切性与重要性。其中,东盟各国表现出了强烈的主体性。从亚洲主义的角度分析东亚地域所产生的“地域化”、“本土化”趋势的实质,可以确证东盟对东亚地区的经济合作、文化共创进而对东亚共同体的最终形成将日益发挥越来越重要的作用。     

美国与东亚经济失衡及东亚区域合作构想

美国与东亚经济失衡与摩擦对东亚区域经济一体化的影响巨大而复杂。一方面,为应对与美国的经济摩擦,东亚先进经济体往往通过对外直接投资将国内失去比较优势的产业转移到区内后进经济体,将其作为自己的出口平台,从而促进东亚地区产业分工与国际生产网络等经济一体化的形成;另一方面,作为东亚区域经济一体化进程中最重要的外部因素,美国对东亚经济一体化的立场、东亚对美国市场和美国货币的非对称依赖都在一定程度上限制了东亚地区一体化的发展。     

试论构建“东亚共同体”的思想文化基础——从历史启迪与未来追求的视角

创建共同合作、协同发展的“东亚共同体”,业已成为不可抗拒的发展趋势。历史事实证明:东亚地区是世界历史上最早“一体化”的区域;它既有成功的、进步的古代“东亚文化圈”,也有反动的、失败的近代“大东亚共荣圈”,还有设想中的“东亚共同体”。然而,现实中的“历史认识问题”,是直接关系到“东亚共同体”能否迅速建立的前提条件。为促进未来“东亚共同体”区域内的沟通和交流,需要在汉字的基础上创建共通文字,这不是复旧,而是与时俱进的创新。当人们思考构建“东亚共同体”时,在普遍关注经济协作的情况下,尤应重视思想文化观念的问题,因为东亚各国间的政治的、经济的、外交的问题,不能光靠政治的、经济的、外交的手段来解决,而确实需要从思想文化观念方面去寻求解决问题的办法。     

Regionalism's multiple negotiations: ASEAN in East Asia

This article explains East Asian regionalism as the product of two sets of negotiations. The first negotiation is between East Asia on the one hand and global forces and structures on the other. The second negotiation is intra-regional and includes a critical negotiation between the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)-Southeast Asia and East/Northeast Asia, which also provides the primary focus of this article. This article details ASEAN's extensions into East Asian regionalism as part of interdependent efforts to adapt transitioning global and regional systems. Conceiving these regional negotiations to be not just economic and utilitarian but first and foremost normative, this article details the opportunities and dilemmas represented by ‘East Asia’ for ASEAN, ASEAN-Southeast Asia and Southeast Asia as a meaningful organizing principle. Dilemmas associated with the ASEAN Plus Three process, an East Asia free-trade area and the ASEAN Charter provide illustrations of East Asia's understood challenges for Southeast Asia in addition to the ways that Southeast Asian agencies have been shaping the form and content of recent East Asian efforts and also how regional-global and intra-ASEAN negotiations continue to provide key constraints.     

U.S. and East Asian Integration

the U.S. is directly impacting on the future of the East Asian community. Therefore, finding ways to get along with the U.S. is crucial to the speed, direction, configuration and character of the East Asian community. In this paper, the author has analyzed the interests of the United States in East Asia and its stands towards the East Asian integration. The author concludes that it is to the interest of the United States to make more efforts to further join in the East Asian integration. And East Asia should accept and welcome the American participation.     

China’s response to the global financial crisis and its regional leadership in East Asia

This paper examines the role of China in the G20 and in East Asia in crafting appropriate responses and policies to the global financial crisis. Did China play an important part in the multilateralisation of the Chiang Mai Initiative, and how did China work with other players in East Asia to ‘inoculate’ East Asia against contagion and fallout from the crisis? The paper evaluates the type of leadership displayed by China and the decisions taken during the crisis. It assesses how the Chinese role in its own region and within global institutions such as the G20 would change in the aftermath of these crises.     

从马来西亚与日本的关系变化看冷战后东亚格局的演变

冷战后,东亚地区的国际格局发生了重大的变化,大国关系处于历史性调整时期。东盟在亚太地区的影响日益上升,并逐渐成为塑造东亚格局的重要一极。中国的崛起和日本实力的相对下降深刻地改变了东亚地区的国际关系。本文通过分析马来西亚和日本的关系演变,管窥冷战后东亚格局的演变。     

Comparative transformation. Experiences in East Europe and prospects in East Asia

This article1. retraces the origins of the revolutions in East Europe, set against the more retarding socio-political causalities in East Asia,2. benchmarks the sequence of economic transformation in East Europe against the limited and incomplete economic reforms in East Asia,3. sets postcommunist political developments in East Europe against scenarios for political change in East Asia, and4. compares the social crisis in East Europe with prospects for more stable social development in the Confucian cultures of East Asia.The article concludes with the need for negotiated democratic regime change in the remaining Communist dictatorships in East Asia.. While economic structures still require a sustained effort for systemic change towards genuine market economies, its social consequences are expected to be less dramatic than in Eastern Europe.     

Towards an Asian security-community

The title of this paper indicates that the subject matter involves a process. It is a gradual process, step by step , since there are still many constraints: the complete normalization between China and Japan; the acceptance of the US, openly or tacit; and ASEAN's credibility, which will depend on the efforts to build the ASEAN Community. The process probably involves more than only East Asia in the geographical sense, because it would be sensible to include India, Australia and New Zealand as well. An Asian Security Community appears premature. But an extended East Asian community, which has a security component, could be a possibility. How this will unfold further will depend on how successful this regional process will be. East Asia cannot emulate the EU because it is a more diverse region than Europe, but East Asia can learn from the EU.     

东亚区域货币合作与我国的参与对策

由美国著名经济学家蒙代尔提出的最优货币区理论为区域货币一体化奠定了理论基础,而欧盟的实践使这一理论变成了现实。东亚金融危机的爆发,加快了东亚区域货币合作的进程。而作为已经加入WTO同时又是东亚最大发展中国家的中国,应该积极参与东亚区域货币合作,并针对这一趋势做出适当的对策选择。     

中国与东亚共同体建构

在探讨东亚地区主义时通常所运用的三种思维范式———现实主义、自由主义和建构主义的思维范式。按照这样的一些思维范式分析,90年代后期的区内外因素促成了东盟+3会议的召开和真正意义上的东亚地区主义的发生及东亚同盟体的建构所面临的挑战。中国和平崛起对于参与和推进东亚共同体的形成具有重要的作用。     

Monetary policy and overinvestment in East Asia and Europe

The paper analyzes the role of monetary policy for cyclical movements of investment and asset markets in East Asia and Europe based on a Mises-Hayek overinvestment framework. It is shown how the gradual global decline of interest rates has triggered wandering overinvestment cycles in Japan, Southeast Asia, and China. Similarly, it is shown how a one-size monetary policy within the European Monetary Union has not preserved the European Monetary Union from idiosyncratic economic development and crisis because of uncoordinated fiscal policies. With monetary policy crisis management being argued to impede financial and economic restructuring, a timely exit from ultra-expansionary monetary policies is recommended for both East Asia and Europe to reconstitute economic stability and growth.