Probability of default models of Russian banks

This paper presents results from an econometric analysis of Russian bank defaults during the period 1997–2003, focusing on the extent to which publicly available information from quarterly bank balance sheets is useful in predicting future defaults. Binary choice models are estimated to construct the probability of default model. In the first part of the paper we analyse bank survival over the financial crisis of 1998. We find that preliminary expert clustering or automatic clustering improves the predictive power of the models and incorporation of macrovariables into the models is useful. Heuristic criteria are suggested to help compare model performance from the perspectives of investors or banks supervision authorities. In the second part of the paper we use the probability of default models developed in the first part in rolling windows to analyse the Russian banking system trends after the crisis 1998.     

Bank regulation and supervision in bank-dominated financial systems: a comparison between Japan and Germany

This paper compares bank regulation and supervision in Japan and Germany. We consider these countries because they both have bank-dominated financial systems and their banking systems are often lumped together as one model, yet, bank stability differs significantly. We show that Japan and Germany have chosen different approaches to bank regulation and supervision and ask why they made their choices. We argue that bank regulation and supervision were less efficient in Japan than in Germany and that these differences were decisive for bank behavior.

Consolidation and Competition in Emerging Market: An Empirical Test for Malaysian Banking Industry

This paper investigates the effect of bank consolidation on market structure and competition in Malaysian banking industry during the years of 1998–2005. The study evaluates the degree of competition using H-statistic proposed by Panzar and Rosse (1987 Testing for monopoly equilibrium. J Ind Econ 35:443–456). The estimated H-statistics are positive ranging from 0.53 to 0.81 and the Wald test for the market structure for monopoly or perfect competition is rejected. The results imply that the financial institutions in Malaysia earned their revenue in the condition of monopolistic competition with the traditional interest-based market is significantly less competitive than the overall market. The evidence is however insufficient to show that there is an increase in competition due to a change in the market structure. Thus, the findings suggest that additional competition policy is needed to ensure competition in the Malaysian banking market in view of further consolidation in the banking sector.     

对影子银行加强监管的国际金融法制改革

2008年金融危机的产生与游离于监管体系之外的影子银行的崩溃密不可分。在后危机时代,国际社会金融监管改革中很重要的一个方面即是加强对影子银行的监管。美欧等发达金融体已纷纷采取多种改革办法加强对其监管。以金融稳定理事会为代表的国际组织亦对影子银行监管进行研究,并形成了相关建议。影子银行对金融体系带来的主要威胁是系统性风险和监管套利,改革现有金融监管法制的重点也在于此。我国应当积极参与此方面的国际金融法制改革,并适时加强国内的法制建设。     

Banking reforms and the evolution of cost efficiency in Indian public sector banks

This paper analyses the trends of cost efficiency and its components across Indian public sector banks (PSBs) during the post-deregulation period spanning from 1992/1993 to 2007/2008. The study also examines the issue of convergence in cost, technical and allocative efficiency levels of Indian PSBs. The empirical results indicate that deregulation has had a positive impact on the cost efficiency of Indian public sector banking industry over the period of study. Further, technical efficiency of Indian PSBs followed an uptrend, while allocative efficiency followed a path of deceleration. We note that in Indian public sector banking industry, the cost inefficiency is mainly driven by technical inefficiency rather than allocative inefficiency. The convergence analysis reveals that the inefficient PSBs are not only catching-up but also moving ahead of the efficient ones, i.e., the banks with the low level of cost efficiency at the beginning of the period are growing more rapidly than the highly cost efficient banks. In sum, the study confirms a strong presence of σ- and β-convergence in cost efficiency levels of Indian public sector banking industry.     

Searching for the source of technical inefficiency in Italian judicial districts: an empirical investigation

In this paper, we conducted a two-stage analysis of technical efficiency in Italian judicial districts by focusing on civil cases in 2006. Unlike most of the works that apply the Data Envelopment Analysis technique to study the justice sector, in the first stage, we employed the smoothed bootstrap procedure to generate unbiased technical efficiency estimates. In the second stage, we used a semi-parametric technique (Simar and Wilson in J Econom 136(1): 31–64, 2007) that produces a robust inference for an unknown serial correlation between efficiency scores. Our results show that technical efficiency is explained by demand factors and supports the conclusion that opportunistic behaviour from both claimants and lawyers negatively affects technical efficiency in Italian judicial districts.     

提高金融包容:一个银行法的视角

通过提高金融包容促进人类发展已成为国际社会的共识.未来金融法改革,无论是立法还是监管实践应充分考虑金融包容.从银行法改革来看,提高金融包容应与维护银行体系稳定和保护存款人利益共同作为监管机构的监管目标.作为法定的权利,公众获得生命线性的银行服务,可以通过银行社会责任的法定化来实现,并通过私法和公法强制实施.从激励相容和成本效益监管原则出发,对提供小额信贷的金融机构必须实施差异化监管.     

论银行公司治理制度的构建

在银行中,利益冲突的范围不同于实体经济中一般的工商企业,但是,一直以来银行的公司治理制度并没有给予银行中特别的利益冲突以特别关注。美国2007-2009年的金融危机表明,有必要调整和改革银行的公司治理结构。银行功能的社会公益性以及银行中特殊的利益冲突和其它的特点使得在构建银行的公司治理结构时,不能够简单地适用普通公司的治理模式,而要在股权治理、债权治理和监管治理之中寻求平衡。     

改革中国银行业监管体制的法律与实践

中国银行业监管体制的改革已经取得了伟大的成就 ,但是我们不能否认它本身还存在着一些不完善之处 ,为了改革现行的银行业监管体制 ,国务院决定设立中国银行业监督管理委员会。设立脱离于中央银行的独立金融监管机构符合世界金融监管制度发展的趋势。     

The Czech transition banking sector instability: the role of operational cost management

In this article we show—using the estimated cost efficiency of banks—that besides the risk (proxied by the share of non-performing loans), the quality of operational cost management was an equally important determinant of bank failure risk during the decade of banking sector transformation in the Czech Republic.

Local causes,regional co-operation and global financing for environmental problems: the case of Southeast Asian Haze pollution

Lack of action on cross-border environmental problems in developing countries is often ascribed to gaps in local capacity and resources, failure of regional cooperation and lack of financial support from rich countries. Using the case of the Southeast Asian Haze pollution from forest and peat fires in Indonesia, we explore the challenges posed by environmental problems whose causes are closely linked to local development and livelihood strategies, and whose impacts are local, regional (haze) as well as global (carbon emissions). We assess whether there are real opportunities to implement effectively the recent Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Agreement on Transboundary Haze Pollution. To address the deep determinants behind haze pollution, we propose signatories to the Agreement refocus their efforts to controlling peat fires rather than to strive for a zero-burning regime. We also recommend a new approach to financing sustainable development based on rules and incentives, with a regional pool of funds, contributed by rich countries through the Global Environment Facility and countries in Southeast Asia.

Politicization,banking experience and risk in savings banks

During the global financial crisis, criticism of the politicization and lack of professionalization of the savings banks has taken a central position in the political debate. The aim of this article is to analyze if the political presence of governing bodies in Spanish savings banks has been reflected in their various risk-taking behaviors before and during the financial crisis. We will also analyze whether the influence of the chairman’s banking experience matters. The results do not provide evidence that the composition of the boards of savings bank, or even their politicization, have played a role. However we show that savings banks run by a chairman with previous banking experience are likely to be significantly more solvent and less volatile.     

The formation of an international environmental agreement as a two-stage exclusive cartel formation game with transferable utilities

We construct a two-stage exclusive cartel formation game with utility transfers to model the formation process of an international environmental agreement. Our results show that in the first stage of low degree of consensus, engaging in utility transfers by asymmetric countries will accomplish little. In contrast, in the second stage of higher degree of consensus, it is more likely for asymmetric countries to engage in monetary transfers to form the grand coalition, particularly if a small stable coalition has already been formed in the first stage. This article therefore provides a theoretical perspective to explain why it is more likely for some developed countries to initiate an IEA formation process by forming a small stable coalition first before engaging in monetary transfers to form the grand coalition with all the other countries. Such a perspective is consistent with the historical development of the Montreal Protocol and may also explain the difficulty for asymmetric countries to form the grand coalition at the beginning of the IEA formation process of the Kyoto Protocol.

数字人民币的竞争减损与规制补充

数字人民币自2020年4月试验性发行以来受到了国内外的共同关注。数字人民币具有降低货币发行成本、简化金融市场架构、提升支付效率、加强人民币国际化等优势。同时,我国为数字人民币设置的二元发行模式及100%存款准备金制度也在较大程度上避免了金融机构“脱媒”及银行挤兑加速的负面效果。但数字人民币在与数字化实体人民币的竞争中无法完全避免狭义银行问题,在与其他电子支付工具的竞争中缺乏独有竞争优势,市场前景堪忧。未来的货币规制应当考虑数字人民币的特性,为之确立有限的法偿性、不同的基准利率以及零支付手续费等配套措施。     

The Determinants of Trade Credit in Transition Countries

The paper investigates the determinants of trade credit in transition countries. Traditional theories of trade credit extension suggest that both financial and commercial motives may induce non-financial companies to assume a role of financial intermediation. Furthermore, specific conditions of financing for companies in transition countries may reserve to trade credit an important role in financial structure. We test the determinants of accounts receivable and accounts payable on a sample of about 9300 companies from nine Central and Eastern European Countries. Results suggest that both financial and commercial motives explain the credit behaviour of firms. However, we do not find generalised patterns in the use of trade credit among all transition countries.     

我国商业银行破产法律制度构建的反思

在我国商业银行破产法律制度的构建中,对有关理念问题的研究远比对制度本身的研究更为重要。要构筑适合我国国情和经济发展需要的银行破产制度体系,必须首先对我国银行业的现状和银行业对法律的实际需求做出冷静审视。机械地在破产清算主义和再建主义之间作出非此即彼的选择是极其有害的,正确的做法应该是在衡平二者之间关系的基础上进行有选择地扬弃和继承。     

Is foreign direct investment good for the poor? New evidence from African countries

This paper conducts an empirical investigation of the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and poverty in selected African economies. Using system generalised method of moments, our findings showed that FDI inflows have significantly contributed to poverty reduction in African countries. Our results also showed that better institutional quality and human capital development are associated with reducing poverty. Furthermore, interacting FDI with financial development was found to significantly reduce poverty, thus providing support to the hypothesis that better functioning financial systems enhance the efficiency of FDI in reducing poverty.     

East Meets West in Anti-Money Laundering and Anti-Terrorist Finance: Policy Dialogue and Differentiation on Security, the Timber Trade and ‘Alternative’ Banking

This paper compares and contrasts South East Asian and European Union countries’ perceptions of the priorities for anti money laundering (AML) and anti terrorist finance (ATF) in relation to three industries: security goods and services; the timber trade; and ‘informal’ value transfer and banking services. It might be expected that all countries would equally support each of these aspects of AML/ATF policies, without differentiating between the industries generating the proceeds. As this paper will show, however, historical experiences, contemporary political relations and patterns of trade shape countries’ approaches, resulting in distinctive enthusiasms and reservations. In a nutshell, the EU points most strongly to products and services originating in Asia as posing AML/CTF risks, and locates primary responsibility for monitoring and control as falling within Asia - a projection of risk and responsibility that is reciprocated by Asian countries. Asian countries perceive a need for tighter control of dangerous products exported by the west, for example, small arms and light weapons, and of related money laundering circuits. Asian and European policy makers increasingly articulate concerns over illegal logging and related laundering, however European importers and their governments see responsibilities for this as falling primarily within Asia. Finally, the EU (like the US) perceives high levels of laundering risk in ‘informal’ value transfer/banking services, in which Asian-run businesses have a global competitive advantage. For the future, as the international balance of trade shifts, and as Asia increases its influence in international fora including those concerned with AML/CTF, so the region’s policy preferences may be expected to carry more weight.

Costs and recovery rates in the Dutch liquidation-based bankruptcy system

We present evidence on the efficiency of the resolution of financial distress in bankruptcy in The Netherlands. Direct costs average 16%, firm recovery 37% and bank debt recovery 80%. The direct costs are lower in larger firms and in firms with more bank debt. Costs increase with the time it takes to sell assets. Firm recovery is influenced by asset structure, capital structure and to a lesser extent Dutch legal variables. However, the opportunity to continue operations in bankruptcy is chosen by about half the firms and this has a positive effect on recoveries.

Recurrent default or policy-optimal taxation

This paper investigates the syndrome of “this time is different” with respect to Reinhart and Rogoff’s (This time is different: eight centuries of financial folly Princeton University Press, Princeton, 2011) interpretation of their extensive, historical data on financial default, and with particular regard to public debt in a closed-economy. Recurrent and over-generous promises to credulous investors of an ex ante, policy-optimal return amounts to an extra policy instrument in boosting the demand for public debt. In a numerical simulation of a version of the Diamond (Am Econ Rev 55:1126–1150, 1965) model, we find that the incentive for the policy-maker to pursue this strategy is trivial if taxes can be set at a policy-optimal level, but possibly over-riding if they cannot. Thus, the main result lines up with the empirical conclusion of Reinhart et al. (Debt intolerance. Debt intolerance, 2003) that “debt intolerant countries have weak fiscal structures”. The subsidiary result of the model is that defaulting countries will also have higher shares of public expenditure. Thus the model also predicts Wagner’s Law to the extent that fiscal structure is correlated with economic development.