The Economics of Poverty Traps and Persistent Poverty: Empirical and Policy Implications

The moral and economic imperatives to intervene in poverty traps motivate the identification of poverty traps and their structural causes so as to inform the design of appropriate policy responses. However, empirical identification remains challenging because of poverty traps’ complexity. After reviewing mechanisms that can generate poverty traps, we focus on one – multiple financial market failures – emphasising its heretofore underappreciated testable implications, including specific behaviours that are rational only in the presence of a poverty trap. We therefore recommend tests for these behaviours rather than more econometrically challenged efforts to directly test for poverty traps in estimated asset dynamics.     

How Strong is the Evidence for the Existence of Poverty Traps? A Multicountry Assessment

Introducing this special collection on asset dynamics and poverty traps, this article assesses evidence on these issues across eight panel data sets in six countries generally not previously considered in this perspective. It examines the importance of assets in relation to chronic poverty and uses parametric and non-parametric methods to test for dynamic asset-based poverty traps. The article finds that chronically poor households have lower levels of assets than others, though does not find evidence of the non-convexities which would imply a multiple dynamic poverty trap. From this base the article introduces the remainder of the articles in this collection which set out many promising approaches to further develop and improve methods and approaches for looking at poverty traps in future.     

Poverty Transition in Rural Vietnam: The Role of Migration and Remittances

This study combines insights of the New Economics of Labour Migration with the asset-based approach to welfare dynamics using panel household data from Vietnam. This method allows us to determine whether poverty transitions induced by remittances are actually structural, that is, based on asset growth and therefore long term, or stochastic, that is, based only on short-term increases in income, which implies a risk of falling back into poverty. To control for endogeneity of remittances, we use household fixed effects and instrumental variables estimation. The paper shows that remittances have a positive impact on asset growth and that the impact differs with welfare status and ethnicity.     

Pathways into and out of Poverty: A Study of Rural Household Wealth Dynamics in Kenya

This study identifies the factors associated with smallholder farm households that have risen out of poverty or descended into poverty between 1997 and 2007 in Kenya. The study uses data from a nationwide balanced panel of 1,275 households and data from detailed retrospective ‘life history’ survey of 84 households that had experienced either an appreciable improvement or decline in their asset wealth over the 10-year panel period. The results indicate that household welfare dynamics are associated with a disparate set of idiosyncratic and unexpected shocks, such as death and chronic illness, demographic factors, proximity to infrastructural facilities, as well as intergenerational wealth transfers.     

Poverty traps and nonlinear income dynamics with measurement error and individual heterogeneity

Theories of poverty traps stand in sharp contrast to the view that anybody can make it through hard work and thrift. However, empirical detection of poverty traps is complicated by the lack of long panels, measurement error and attrition. This paper shows how dynamic pseudo-panel methods can overcome these difficulties, allowing estimation of nonlinear income dynamics and testing of the presence of poverty traps. The paper explicitly allows for heterogeneity in income dynamics, to account for the possibility that particular groups of individuals may face traps, even if the average individual does not. These methods are used to examine the evidence for a poverty trap in labour earnings, income and expenditure in urban Mexico and are compared to panel data estimates from a short rotating panel. The results do find evidence of nonlinearities in household income dynamics, and demonstrate large bias in the panel data estimates. Nevertheless, even after allowing for heterogeneity and accounting for measurement error, we find no evidence for the existence of a poverty trap for any group in our sample.     

Remittances and Working Poverty

Abstract

This article shows that the level and the predictability of remittances reduce working poverty in receiving economies through their effects on labour market dynamics. It takes advantage of the new cross-country dataset (ILO, KILM 7th edition) containing information on the share of individuals working for less than US$2 per day. To identify the main impacts, the article proposes a novel approach to deal with the endogeneity of remittances and migration. In addition, the results are robust to the possible error in measuring working poverty, to the potential attrition bias, and to the presence of various control variables.     

Livestock Production,Rural Poverty,and Perceived Shocks: Evidence from Panel Data for Vietnam

This paper assesses the contribution of livestock to reducing rural poverty and examines the determinants of livestock assets with panel data from Vietnam. The findings show that livestock production contributes to reducing poverty and livestock assets are influenced by the number of shocks that households faced during the last three years, access to credits, farmland size, education of household head, irrigation system, and access to the national electricity. We suggest that empowering rural households to better cope with shocks contributes to developing livestock and consequently to reducing rural poverty.     

Assets and Poverty Traps in Rural Bangladesh

Using longitudinal survey from rural Bangladesh, this article examines the determinants of land and asset accumulation over time and explores why some households may be trapped in asset poverty. Non-parametric and parametric methods are used to discern the shape of the asset accumulation path, and whether unique or multiple equilibria exist. We find evidence for concavity of the dynamic asset frontier but no evidence for multiple equilibria. It is suggested that the existence of well-functioning factor markets in rural Bangladesh and elsewhere in South Asia explain the contrasts between our results and those for several African countries.     

Institutions and Poverty

This study utilises eight alternative measures of institutions and the instrumental variable method to examine the impacts of institutions on poverty. The estimates show that an economy with a robust system to control corruption, an effective government, and a stable political system will create the conditions to promote economic growth, minimise income distribution conflicts, and reduce poverty. Corruption, ineffective governments, and political instability will not only hurt income levels through market inefficiencies, but also escalate poverty incidence via increased income inequality. The results also imply that the quality of the regulatory system, rule of law, voice and accountability, and expropriation risk are inversely related to poverty but their effect on poverty is via average income rather than income distribution.     

Noncomparable Poverty Comparisons

Poverty estimates based on enumeration from a single point in time form the basis for most country-level analysis of poverty. Cross-country comparisons of poverty, and global counts of the poor, implicitly assume that country-level poverty headcounts are comparable. This paper illustrates that the assumption of comparability is potentially invalid when households are interviewed multiple times throughout the year, as opposed to a single-visit interview. An example from Jordan illustrates how the internationally comparable approach of handling data from repeat visits yields a poverty rate that is 26 per cent greater than the rate that is currently reported as the official estimate.     

Poverty and Survival

A recent literature highlights the uncertainty concerning whether economic growth has any causal protective effect on health and survival. But equal rates of growth often deliver unequal rates of poverty reduction and absolute deprivation is more clearly relevant. Using state-level panel data for India, we contribute the first estimates of the impact of changes in poverty on infant survival. We identify a significant within-state relationship which persists conditional upon state income, indicating the size of survival gains from redistribution in favour of households below the poverty line. The poverty elasticity declines over time after 1981. It is invariant to controlling for income inequality but diminished upon controlling for education, fertility and state health expenditure, and eliminated once we introduce controls for omitted trends.     

Post-development and Poverty: an assessment

This article presents a critical assessment of the post-development critique of poverty, distinguishing between claims made about how poverty is represented in ‘modern’ poverty analysis (the ‘representations critique’) and claims about trends in, and causal analysis of, consumption poverty (the ‘marginalisation thesis’). In general empirical evidence does not support ‘headline’ claims concerning the lack of correspondence of consumption poverty to local needs and the worsening of consumption poverty. There is support for other positions concerning the relativity of nutritional adequacy norms and the limits of ‘standard’ causal analysis of poverty. These latter elements, however, add little to existing critiques which are well known in the poverty literature.     

The economics of poverty traps and persistent poverty: An asset-based approach

Longitudinal data on household living standards open the way to a deeper analysis of the nature and extent of poverty. While a number of studies have exploited this type of data to distinguish transitory from more chronic forms of income or expenditure poverty, this paper develops an asset-based approach to poverty analysis that makes it possible to distinguish deep-rooted, persistent structural poverty from poverty that passes naturally with time due to systemic growth processes. Drawing on the economic theory of poverty traps and bifurcated accumulation strategies, this paper briefly discusses some feasible estimation strategies for empirically identifying poverty traps and long-term, persistent structural poverty, as well as relevant extensions of the popular Foster-Greer-Thorbecke class of poverty measures. The paper closes with reflections on how asset-based poverty can be used to underwrite the design of persistent poverty reduction strategies.     

A Method to Update Poverty Maps

The small area estimation method proposed by Elbers et al. (Elbers, C., Lanjouw, J. and Lanjouw, P. (2003) Micro-level estimation of poverty and inequality. Econometrica, 71(1), pp. 355–364) combines a household survey and a census to generate a disaggregated map of poverty measures. Since censuses are often conducted every 10 years, construction of poverty maps on a regular basis is not straightforward. This article discusses methods to update poverty maps for years between censuses by combining an old census and new household surveys. These discussed methods are illustrated by producing a poverty map in Vietnam for the years 2004 and 2006 using the 1999 Population and Housing Census and Vietnam Household Living Standard Surveys in 2002, 2004 and 2006. The validation of the updating methods is examined by comparing poverty estimates in 2006 obtained from the updating methods with benchmark poverty estimates obtained from the standard ‘small area estimation’ method using data from the 2006 Vietnam Household Living and the 2006 Rural Agriculture and Fishery Census.     

Income and Asset Poverty among Pastoralists in Northern Kenya

In this study we use household panel data collected in Marsabit district of Northern Kenya, to analyse the patterns of livelihood sources and poverty among pastoralists in that area. We estimate income poverty using imputed household income relative to the adjusted poverty line and asset poverty using a regression-based asset index and tropical livestock units (TLU) per capita. Our results indicate that keeping livestock is still the pastoralists’ main source of livelihood, although there is a notable trend of increasing livelihood diversification, especially among livestock-poor households. The majority of households (over 70%) are both income and livestock-poor with few having escaped poverty within the five-year study period. Disaggregating income and asset poverty also reveals an increasing trend of both structurally poor and stochastically nonpoor households. The findings show that the TLU-based asset poverty is a more appropriate measure of asset poverty in a pastoral setting.     

Microfinance and Poverty in Bolivia

Both in its institutional range and in its penetration of financial markets, the microfinance sector in Bolivia rivals any in the world, and has played a major part in extracting the macro-economy from meltdown since the mid-1980s. We seek specifically to assess its impact on poverty, and do this through small-sample surveys on four microfinance institutions, two urban and two rural, using a range of poverty concepts: income (generated both through the borrower's enterprise and through the labour market), asset holdings and diversity, and various measures of vulnerability. All the institutions studied had, on balance, positive impacts on income and asset levels, with income impacts correlating negatively with income on account of poor households choosing to invest in low-risk, low-return assets. Microfinance may, however, augment vulnerability: average debt-service ratios of microfinance clients are disturbingly high, and if the coping mechanisms used by borrowers fail, borrowers may be forced out of the microfinance system, possibly resulting in decapitalisation and impoverishment. Poorer households are more restricted in their choice of coping strategy, and many as a consequence 'choose' coping strategies more likely to jeopardise their long-term income prospects, in particular asset sales and cuts in children's schooling. The more successful low-income borrowers are those who have voluntary savings deposits and do not rush into fixed capital purchases too early: collapse back into poverty is associated with multiple crises and the failure of one or more 'safety nets', in particular of one or more 'safety nets', in particular support from a member's solidarity group. The following actions appear to be promising for the further reduction of poverty in Bolivia: stronger efforts to mobilise rural savings, removal of lower limits on loan size, and the introduction of appropriate insurance mechanisms. In comparison with other anti-poverty measures, microfinance appears to be successful and relative cheap at reducing the poverty of those close to the poverty line, but ineffective, by comparison with labour-market and infrastructural measures, in reducing extreme poverty.     

Multidimensional Poverty in Crisis: Lessons from Zimbabwe

Zimbabwe experienced an acute social, political, and economic crisis from 2001 to 2008 and is now on a recovery path. This paper explores changes in poverty between 2001, 2007, and 2011–2012 using an Alkire–Foster multidimensional poverty index. Results indicate a large increase in poverty across multiple dimensions of household wellbeing between 2001 and 2007 (the start of the crisis peak), followed by a decrease in poverty between 2007 and 2011–2012, during the recovery period. Decomposition of the index shows significantly different trends in poverty dimensions over time with implications for short- and long-term social assistance policies.     

Africa and the Poverty of International Relations

The modern condition of poverty in Africa is a global phenomenon, the outcome of world-historical processes of social change, and reproduced by globally structured social relations. This is obscured in academic analysis. The 20th century division of labour produced an absence of theorising the international from the discipline of Development Studies, and an absence of poverty from the concerns of International Relations. Neither Development Studies nor ir have adequately emphasised or theorised the global production and reproduction of local poverty in Africa. Perhaps this can be remedied, thanks to the increasing attention to studying international relations ‘from below’ in recent critical scholarship. However, methodologically, the current critical approaches in ir and ds are disabled by their abandonment of objectivity and a commitment to explanation. The article concludes by arguing for elaboration of the global political economy of poverty in Africa, as a form of social scientific inquiry with necessarily emancipatory implications.     

Vulnerability to Multi-Dimensional Poverty: An Empirical Comparison of Alternative Measurement Approaches

This paper investigates whether different measures of ex-post poverty and ex-ante vulnerability to poverty provide consistent estimates of poverty and vulnerability to poverty across households. Moreover, if there is some heterogeneity in the identification of households as poor and vulnerable, it investigates the degree of mismatch between measures? The ex-post monetary poverty (MP) and multidimensional poverty (MDP) measures are used to identify poor households. Likewise, the ex-ante vulnerability to monetary poverty (VMP) and vulnerability to multidimensional poverty (VMDP) measures are used to identify vulnerable households. Using a large household survey data-set of about 90,000 households from the Punjab province of Pakistan, we find that most of the vulnerable households are accurately identified by the ex-ante measures of vulnerability to poverty. However, the ex-post measures of poverty identify different households as poor. Our results show that 18 percent households experiencing MDP are not captured by the one-dimensional measure of MP. The important implication of this study is that the choice of measures does matter in ex-post poverty identification, but not as much in the identification of ex-ante vulnerability to poverty.     

Global Production Networks, Chronic Poverty and ‘Slave Labour’ in Brazil

For large parts of the world's poor labour force, participation in global production networks (GPNs) is associated not with poverty reduction and ??social upgrading??, but with highly precarious, unprotected and exploitative forms of work and employment, resulting in a perpetuation, rather than alleviation, of chronic poverty. In this article, we seek to understand these dynamics of ??adverse incorporation?? in the context of Brazilian agriculture, focusing on the extreme ends of the spectrum of exploitation associated with what, in Brazil, is usually termed ??slave labour??. We explore two questions which reveal the circular character of adverse incorporation. First, to what extent, in what ways and under what circumstances does chronic poverty foster patterns of precarious and exploitative employment within GPNs for poor workers? Second, to what extent, in what ways and under what circumstances can the workings of GPNs, and the terms on which poorer workers are incorporated into them, be said to produce and reproduce chronic poverty?