Can Tourism Promote Inclusive Growth? Supply Chains,Ownership and Employment in Ha Long Bay,Vietnam

Inclusive growth is contested yet adopted by the World Bank to reduce poverty and inequality through rapid economic growth. Research has tested inclusive growth in sectors including agriculture, but few studies apply it to tourism which is significant for many developing countries. The paper interrogates tourism-led inclusive growth: supply chains, economic linkages/leakage, ownership, employment and expenditure. It draws from fieldwork in Vietnam where tourism has rapidly developed with partial economic benefits for local communities, but does not appear to fall within the inclusive growth paradigm. It is unclear if tourism-led growth will become any more inclusive in the short-to-medium term.     

A reply

On the basis of input‐output tables from developing countries sectors are distinguished according to the degree of their interdependencies. Using 20 standard sectors for all 22 tables analysed, the paper takes the intensity of interindustrial linkages as an indicator of a sector's ability to spread growth impulses to its economic environment. Backward and forward linkages are calculated; in addition, spread effects are computed via the inverse matrix. Then the sectors are classified according to their total (direct and indirect) primary input requirements per unit of final demand. The analysis is supplemented by the determination of the sectoral employment impact, i.e. applying figures for the persons engaged sectorwise.

Particularly under the linkage aspect, the obtained rankings are checked for similarity. Although some rankings are highly correlated, none of the criteria under consideration proves superior to all others.     

Reinventing urban government in the Netherlands: an American perspective

National agricultural policies intended to stabilize farm price and income may have different impacts on different agricultural sector of a state or a region. A policy which influences a region's agriculture also may affect the general economy of that region, depending on the degree to which agriculture is linked to the general economy. This study evaluates the economywide impact of the Flexible Planting Program (FPP) -- a recent policy designed to encourage farmers to respond more to market than to the government incentives. The study employs an integrated modeling framework which links the national and state farm sectors to the region's non-farm sectors. Because of reductions in real U.S. market prices and, in turn, Tennessee market prices of some farm commodities under FPP, production of most agricultural outputs are expected to decline in Tennessee by 1995. Study results indicate that as a result of price reductions, the agricultural sector will lose about 15 percent of output, income, and employment. These losses cause significant negative impacts on the business-related service sector. The service sector suffers a loss of 31 million dollars in total output and 523 jobs. The total income lost by the service sector (18 million dollars) will be much higher than agriculture sector (11.99 million dollars). Thus, though the FPP may deliver its intended good at the national level, the policy has the potential to cause undesirable impacts on certain regions.     

Income,ouput and employment linkages and import intensities of manufacturing industries in India

The major thrust of planned development in India has been on employment and income generation and self‐reliance. The study evaluates ex‐post income, output and employment linkages and import intensities of manufacturing sectors using an input‐output model. It shows that among the four broad groups of industries, namely agrobased, non‐agrobased final goods, intermediate and capital goods, agrobased industries through technological interdependence, particularly backward linkages, generate relatively more income and employment and use less imported inputs. The non‐agrobased final goods industries with larger import requirements provide potential for income and employment generation if their required imported inputs are internalised.     

Regional growth linkages from agriculture

Pioneering research on downstream linkages from agriculture is said to demonstrate that consumption links rather than production links are the main source of indrect growth effects, that these consumption links take the form of labour‐intensive goods and services produced locally, and that the largest farm enterprises are most locally multiplicative of activities mopping up surplus rural labour. This article has two purposes. First, the methodologies, assumptions and data base for the quantification of the local and non‐local regional multiplier effects from agricultural development are examined. Second, the contradictory interpretations for agricultural policy which have arisen from these exercises of quantification are discussed and an attempt made to explain their bases.     

The impact of the commonwealth preference system on the exports of Latin America to the United Kingdom

This paper quantitatively assesses the effect of value chain development projects on market linkages of small-scale farmers of a staple crop and agricultural income. We focus on Nicaraguan bean producers participating in a value chain development project. Using a panel data set, we apply difference-in-differences and instrumental variables estimators to identify causal effects of programme participation. We first quantify the positive direct effect of training on bean sales in terms of quantity and percentage of beans sold in linked markets. Second, we show that intensified commercialisation contributes to total agricultural income, suggesting a positive indirect effect of the intervention. Our results indicate that market linkage of smallholder farmers requires different sets of intervention tools than farm technical assistance.     

MANAGING FINANCIAL STRINGENCY IN THE PUBLIC SECTOR

This article contributes to the debate about the most effective ways to manage the effects of financial stringency in the public sector. It tentatively draws ideas for further research from three action research studies conducted longitudinally over several years in different contexts and sectors and at different organization levels within the public sector. Our contribution focuses on the management of the early stages of stringency. We conclude that in stringent times, particularly in the short-term, intra-organizational conflict is likely to increase; organizational climates to become more cautious and reactive; and management to become more centralized, controlling and to take what is termed the efficiency rather than the effectiveness option. To these factors is added the resistance to change inherent in professional bureaucracies. Managers in public sector organizations experiencing harsher environments need to be helped to plan strategically for implementation in the particular context in which they find themselves.     

Pakistan's informal sector

This study reviews the main features of Pakistan's informal sector. The data on the informal sector, compiled from censuses and sample surveys in one major city (Rawalpindi), suggest that both real wages and employment have grown in the informal sector. The seeming paradox of real wage growth in a labor surplus economy is explained by real wage growth in both agriculture and large‐scale manufacturing, both of which were made possible by Pakistan's growth performance during the 1960s. The differences in wages between the formal and informal sector, after adjusting for age and education, are quite small, a reflection of high labor mobility between the two sectors.     

From Tragedy to Renaissance: Improving Agricultural Data for Better Policies

Abstract

Agricultural development is an essential engine of growth and poverty reduction, yet agricultural data suffer from poor quality and narrow sectoral focus. There are several reasons for this: (1) difficult-to-measure smallholder agriculture is prevalent in poor countries; (2) agricultural data are collected with little coordination across sectors; and (3) poor analysis undermines the demand for high-quality data. This article argues that initiatives like the Global Strategy to Improve Agricultural and Rural Statistics bode well for the future. Moving from Devarajan’s statistical tragedy’ to Kiregyera’s statistical ‘renaissance’ will take a continued long-term effort by individual countries and development partners.     

Public Participation and Environmental Impact Assessment in Mainland China and Taiwan: Political Foundations of Environmental Management

This article explores the role of agro-ecological factors associated with agricultural growth and poverty outcomes in India. Using a new operationalisation of agro-ecological factors and incorporating within-State variations in poverty and other variables we show that agricultural growth and poverty reduction appear to depend on underlying agro-ecological conditions which are favourable to the spread of irrigation and hence agricultural development, which in turn in associated with poverty reduction. Promotion of agriculture in less favoured areas in unlikely to have similar effects on agriculture in less favoured areas is unlikely to have similar effects on agricultural growth even if the effects of agricultural growth on poverty remain similar, unless conditions for irrigation are favourable or rainfall is sufficiently abundant and reliable. This suggests that considerable caution may be needed in drawing policy conclusions from empirical analysis by state alone, and without regard to their underlying factor endowments.     

Food security politics and the Millennium Development Goals

This article reviews proposals regarding the recent food crisis in the context of a broader, threshold debate on the future of agriculture and food security. While the MDGs have focused on eradicating extreme poverty and hunger, the food crisis pushed the hungry over the one billion mark. There is thus a renewed focus on agricultural development, which pivots on the salience of industrial agriculture (as a supply source) in addressing food security. The World Bank's new 'agriculture for development' initiative seeks to improve small-farmer productivity with new inputs, and their incorporation into global markets via value-chains originating in industrial agriculture. An alternative claim, originating in 'food sovereignty' politics, demanding small-farmer rights to develop bio-regionally specific agro-ecological methods and provision for local, rather than global, markets, resonates in the IAASTD report, which implies agribusiness as usual 'is no longer an option'. The basic divide is over whether agriculture is a servant of economic growth, or should be developed as a foundational source of social and ecological sustainability. We review and compare these different paradigmatic approaches to food security, and their political and ecological implications.     

Shock persistence in a dual economy model of India

This article examines shock persistence in agricultural and industrial output in India. Drawing on the dual economy literature, the linkages between the sectors through the terms of trade are emphasised. However, different dual economy models make differing assumptions regarding the categorisation of variables as being either endogenous or exogenous and this distinction is crucial in explaining the pattern of shock persistence. Using annual data for 1955–95, our results show that shocks to both output series are permanent while those to the terms of trade are transient.     

Foreign Ownership and Employment Growth in a Developing Country

Many developing countries would like to increase employment in the formal sectors. One way to accomplish this goal may be to encourage the entrance of foreign firms. We examine employment growth in Indonesian plants taken over by foreign owners from domestic ones. We also examine the effect of FDI during different trade regimes and the timing of employment effects following an acquisition. For plants that change the nationality of ownership, we find a strong effect of shifts from domestic to foreign ownership in raising the growth rate of employment, but no significant effects of shifts from foreign to domestic ownership.     

Labour demand and Agroindustrial development: The evidence from Mexico

Agroindustrialisation, in contrast to assertions by Mexican policy‐makers, has had a negative employment‐generating effect in agriculture in the region known as El Bajío. The impact of widespread crop substitution and the wholesale transfer of technology promoted by transnational processing plants have both reduced the total labour employed and increased the instability of employment through heightened seasonality of labour demand. A decomposition analysis assesses the role played by various determinants of labour demand in the alteration of regional agricultural employment which has resulted from agro‐industrialisation.     

Rural Roots of Current Migrant Labor Shortage in China: Development and Labor Empowerment in a Situation of Incomplete Proletarianization

This paper challenges and complements the view, widely held in sociological labor studies, that incomplete proletarianization weakens labor’s bargaining power in the city by allowing capital to externalize the costs of labor reproduction to the countryside. The authors argue instead that the preservation of migrant workers’ links to the rural economy plus rural development measures can, under certain circumstances, empower labor by increasing their marketplace bargaining power. Beginning with the puzzle of migrant labor shortages in China, and based on national data and a case study, the authors show that access to land and pro-rural state policies in the first decade of the twenty-first century together stimulated rural development in hinterland China and created more employment opportunities in agricultural and local nonfarm sectors. As a consequence, rural (migrant) laborers in China were able to rely on rural employment and choose not to participate in labor migration, thus contributing to the labor shortage and pressing employers in the city to increase wage rates and improve working and living conditions.     

Demographic pressure,technological innovation and welfare: The case of the agriculture of Bangladesh

In the early years of its introduction, the HYV technology was widely regarded as a technical breakthrough that would bring about rapid agrarian progress and a revolutionary improvement in the standard of living of the farm population. Three decades later the promise of the new technology remains unfulfilled. This article argues that the adoption of the HYV technology in the agriculture of Bangladesh was determined mainly by an acute demographic pressure. Since the non‐agricultural sectors did not expand sufficiently rapidly, there was a tremendous pressure on agriculture to accommodate the additional workforce. The imperative to employ a larger workforce and feed a rising population forced the farmers to adopt the labour‐intensive, land‐augmenting HYV technology. The welfare of the farmers did not show any secular increase with the switch to the new technology.     

Chinese agriculture: A quantitative look

Chinese agriculture has undoubtedly achieved a significant increase in gross agricultural output since the beginning of the new regime. However, for lack of sufficient information, it is difficult to make quantitative estimates of such an increase. Knowledge of the Chinese agriculture even before the Communist take‐over is far from complete. This is a further handicap in an assessment of the contribution of recent developmental efforts. There is some qualitative evidence in historical writings^l which suggests that the level of pre‐modem agricultural technology and practice in China was already very high² long before the present century but the quantitative information available from such historical studies is fragmentary, and often inconclusive. Even when reasonably reliable information seems to be available, its representativeness is open to question. The only reasonably representative account of the Chinese agriculture is available for the early 1930s in Buck's Land Utilization in China. Except for the first decade of the Communist rule in China, the quality of statistics deteriorated markedly. Any attempt, however painstaking, to estimate the rate of growth of the agricultural sector or of agriculture's contribution to the gross national product is bound to be nothing more than broad approximations. The aim of this paper, therefore, is not to add one more ‘guess estimate’ to many such estimates of dubious validity that are already floating around. The aim is mainly to point out the limitation of the data on which such estimates are based. It is not an attempt at denigrating the painstaking efforts of careful Sinologists to piece together fragmentary information from both academic and non‐academic (largely intelligence and diplomatic) sources, but to warn the users that an unqualified acceptance of their results³ (e.g. such as the rates of growth, etc.) in comparative studies may not have sufficient justification.     

The political economy of Indian planning

Peruvian statistics were examined to see if construction remained labour‐intensive during 1955–67. Data on output, employment, capital, and materials consumption were either lacking or had defects that made a direct comparison of trends impossible. But conclusions could be drawn from relative price and wage trends. If materials and capital had not been substituted for labour, average construction costs would have risen substantially more than they did. Our estimate was that by 1967 they would have been 25 per cent higher.

Evidence from a sample of firms, however, suggested that adoption of labour‐saving techniques cannot be tied simply to changes in wages compared with other costs. All eleven innovations studied, it is true, were markedly labour‐saving; but the rate of adoption did not closely follow wage changes. Adoption came most often during those less tense years when builders were neither overstrained with orders nor lacking credit and clients. One must conclude that both rising wages and innovations can limit employment expansion in relatively poor countries.

Since both agriculture and manufacturing have been unable to absorb the growing labour force of poor countries, economists have turned their attention to other sectors for supplementary employment expansion. One of these is construction. The construction sector creates not only jobs but builds capital goods with a desirable low import content. In association with carefully structured financial institutions, it may even generate savings. How much employment a given expansion of construction will provide depends on the production functions of the sector: their slopes and their potential shifts. One must find the changes in labour productivity that go with likely changes in volume, capital accumulation, trends in material supplies, and alternate technologies.

All these questions will get imprecise answers without good statistics on output, labour, capital, and materials, both unit prices and volume. If output varies in composition and in the relative quality of components, problems of weighting and aggregating arise. Because of the sector's ? instability and footloose nature, data on construction remain inferior compared with other sectors even in the most advanced and statistics‐rich countries. Can one make anything of the sorts of data available in poor countries where the sector must play its most crucial role?

In this article, using rather limited data, we note with considerable alarm that steady labour intensity and corresponding employment expansion cannot be taken for granted. Where daily wages are but a fraction of hourly American wages, and where interest rates are a multiple of American rates, the more lavish use of materials and machinery compared with labour can nevertheless begin early.

Peru is the country selected for our study. During 1955–67 Peru had a relatively high national output growth rate of 5.6 per cent together with a moderate rate of inflation of about 9 per cent. Except for the devaluation years of 1958 and 1967, flourishing exports of fishmeal, copper, cotton, and sugar helped carry this rate of growth. Lima was one of the continent's fastest‐growing cities in population and building, particularly in squatter barriadas. But in the 1960s commercial conduction also grew at more than a 15 per cent compound rate, measured in square metres built, according to some estimates.1 During 1964–68, construction had high priority under President Fernando Belaunde, a professional architect. More U.S. foreign aid for housing (direct and guaranteed private loans) went to Peru in absolute terms during this period than to any other country. We shall analyse the consequences by examining (1) trends in relative costs, (2) relative output and import trends, and (3) data about receptivity to innovations in a sample of firms.     

Agricultural self-sufficiency: The recent history of an idea

Summary and Conclusions It has been argued that traditional Third World reliance on commodity export production and trade as a means to accumulate savings for development is increasingly perceived as flawed. Post-World War II investment in light manufacturing by Western firms in the Periphery has also been characterized as an inadequate means of capital accumulation. Nationalist and socialist academics and political leaders in the Third World are voicing interest in food agriculture as a mechanism for economic growth; internal demand for food and other basic goods is considered a potentially more lucrative source of savings than international demand for raw materials and foreign investment have proven to be. Political trends in the Core area, exemplified in Left ideologies, and in church and voluntary organizations' strategies for giving, seem to reinforce Third World fostering of food self-sufficiency as a strategy for development. It is important to recall that intellectual trends, even if broadly based, do not necessarily represent or cause social change. The idea of Third World agricultural self-sufficiency is more pervasive than is its implementation. Nevertheless, current speculation about food self-reliance and its dynamic effect on economic growth in Latin America, Asia, and Africa, is new in development theory, and therefore worthy of note. Further study may reveal the depth of present interest in agricultural self-sufficiency and its likely impact on development planning.