浅析乍得动荡原因

乍得自独立以来就在炮火中进行着权力的交接，铁腕人物代比上台也未能彻底改变动荡的局面。2008年初叛乱再次上演，乍东北部三个反政府组织（民主与发展力量联盟、变革力量联盟与争取民主和发展力量联盟正统派）联合派兵突袭首都恩贾梅纳，造成了包括乍政府军参谋长在内的众多人员伤亡，致使大量难民涌人中非和喀麦隆。虽然叛乱最终被政府军平息，但乍得并未实现真正的安定。除了国内动荡，乍得与邻国苏丹的分分合合也吸引着国际社会的目光，     

Instability and Oil: How Political Time Horizons Affect Oil Revenue Management

While economic explanations for the “resource curse” are well established, the political factors explaining why governments fail to take corrective action remain poorly understood. Research demonstrates that if governments save oil profits abroad and slowly re-introduce the oil-generated revenue into the domestic economy once the rate of return on investment is greater at home than abroad and the quality of project implementation developed, many of the economic problems that plague oil-rich countries can be avoided. Political time horizons shape the incentives of governments to pursue this strategy. Unstable leaders rely on oil revenue to maintain positions of power. They also have less incentive to save oil windfalls abroad as they fear they will not be in office long enough to benefit from such decisions. This paper uses both quantitative data and case study analysis of Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan to demonstrate that leaders with longer time horizons save a greater proportion of oil windfalls abroad than their less stable counterparts, helping avoid the economic pitfalls of oil abundance.     

Evaluating the Role of Subsidy Reform in Addressing Poverty Levels in Malaysia: A CGE Poverty Framework

Abstract

Malaysia as one of the top subsidised countries around the world has launched to reduce subsidies to capture its development goals. This study, therefore, analyses the effects of the subsidy reform on the macroeconomic, welfare and poverty levels of Malaysia by applying a CGE model. The findings suggest that subsidy removal leads to significant falls in both income and consumption of rural, urban and non-citizen households, and consequently decreases their welfare. However, poverty levels among rural households will most likely increase significantly when compared to urban households due to their relatively low level of income compared to other groups.     

Contract Farming and Vulnerability to Poverty among Oil Palm Smallholders in Indonesia

This article addresses smallholder oil palm farming in Indonesia and the risk of falling into poverty by comparing contract and non-contract smallholders. We use an asset-based approach to define vulnerability and apply propensity score matching analysis to assess the impact of contract farming. Data were collected from a cross-sectional survey conducted in 2010 of 245 oil palm smallholder households, 126 of which were contract smallholders. The study finds that approximately 40 per cent of oil palm smallholders can be classified as stochastic-transient poor. We also show that while contract participation reduces the negative impact of oil palm price shocks, this is not the case for production shocks. The study concludes that despite positive income effects, contract smallholders also remain vulnerable to poverty.     

Poverty in Bangladesh: Measurement,decomposition and intertemporal comparison

This article, using the methodology developed by Foster, Greer, and Thorbecke to measure and decompose poverty, provides estimates of the levels of poverty in rural and urban areas in Bangladesh. It investigates in the context of Bangladesh, the most powerful effect of poverty in terms of a shortfall in food for daily calorie intake by the poor. It provides intertemporal comparison of poverty and its decomposition among subgroups. It also makes comparisons between the results obtained in this study with those currently available. The results of the study show a significant improvement in poverty situations in rural areas from 1982 to 1986. The article also discusses the policy implications of its findings.     

Poverty,Ideology and Terrorism: The STAM Bond

This article focuses on the role of ideology in the decision of people who are not from societies’ worst-off socioeconomic groups to join a left-wing terrorist organization. Taking up the sociological perspective of Max Weber, Clifford Geertz, and Raymond Boudon, the author introduces the concept of the “terrorist of the first hour” and considers ideology as a type of social bond. The concept of ideology is here broken down into four dimensions: Social, Temporal, Affective, and Moral (STAM bond). This article also presents data on the ages, sex, educational level, and occupation of the Italian people arrested (2,730) or convicted (528) for crimes of terrorism from 1970 to 2011. Data on Italian terrorists were provided by the General Department of Prisoners of the Ministry of Justice. ¹ 1. The research was conducted between February and July 2011. The author wishes to sincerely thank Sebastiano Ardita—the Director of the General Department of Prisoners of the Ministry of Justice—who gave authorization to collect data on Italian people arrested or convicted of terrorism of which only the Ministry of Justice is in possession. This article considered only data regarding terrorists working to subvert internal order. The articles of the Italian Penal Code regarding “internal” terrorism are articles 270, 270 bis, and 306, and since 2001 further articles have been introduced in order to combat international terrorism.      

The Poverty of Statistics and the Statistics of Poverty

This paper offers a critique of the picture of world growth and world inequality generally disseminated by international agencies. The positive view commonly presented depends on the widespread consensus that economic performance should be measured using ‘Purchasing Power Parity’ (PPP) statistics, instead of market exchange rates. Although originally conceived narrowly as a basis for comparing living standards, PPP indicators are now indiscriminately promoted as an unexceptionable standard for comparing and aggregating national income statistics. This article highlights the flaws in the PPP approach by accepting the claims made on their behalf at face value. It shows that, even on the basis of these claims, the wrong conclusions have been drawn. By comparing PPP and market exchange rate measures of inequality it shows that what really took place, at the end of the last century, was a systematic reduction in the prices of consumption goods in the Third World. PPP statistics have concealed this underlying and unsustainable trend, allowing it to be packaged as a stable reduction in poverty. Neither genuine growth, nor lasting poverty reduction was achieved over this period. The fall in the price of consumer goods masked a systematic failure to overcome the central problem of development—the high price of capital goods, which PPP statistics understate, and of intermediate goods, which they completely omit.     

近中期中俄油气合作的战略思考

中俄油气合作的历史及现状 一、中俄油气合作的历史 中俄油气合作大致划分为三个阶段：一是俄方主动、中方参与；二是中方主动、俄方参与；二是当前双方都热衷的阶段。     

Wheels within Wheels: Poverty,Power and Patronage in the Cambodian Migration System

Abstract

This article presents evidence for an adjusted and refocused systems theory of labour migration in Cambodia. Specifically, it seeks to highlight first, how migration in Cambodia may be understood as a multi-scalar phenomenon characterised by pragmatism and flexibility; secondly, it emphasises the undergirding role of traditional rural norms in shaping and mediating the systematic process of labour movement; and finally, it presents evidence concerning how these structures constitute a vessel of social change, not only from urban to rural, but also from the rural to urban. In this way, a picture is presented of Cambodian migration as an adaptable, but nevertheless highly patterned process which is rapidly reordering the Kingdom’s cities and villages alike.     

Core Poverty,Vagueness and Adaptation: A New Methodology and Some Results for South Africa

Amartya Sen has argued that poverty is a vague concept. This paper develops a methodology for applying a framework which uses a ‘supervaluationist’ account of vagueness in the context of poverty. Within this framework people or households are termed ‘core poor’ if there is no ambiguity about whether or not they are poor. The framework is applied using data from a survey on the ‘Essentials of Life’ conducted in three locations in South Africa in 2001. The methodology relates the data to the framework using an insight of Max Black's. While the application of the methodology is, in its very nature, somewhat arbitrary, we illustrate how it can lead to an estimate of core poverty which differs from standard measures of the ‘ultra-poor’ and ‘most deprived’. Finally, the possibility that respondents may have adapted to their living conditions is investigated. A first look at the data does not provide conclusive evidence of such adaptation.     

Trade Liberalisation and The Poverty of Nations: A Review Article

This two‐part article is an attempt to clarify the social conditions upon which the viability and efficiency of the market system rest. It strives to show that the ‘embeddedness’ thesis, that is, an explanation based upon the existence of long‐run personal ties involving the use of reputation mechanisms among transactors, cannot fully elucidate the question as to how the problem of trust is solved in market societies. As explained in Part I, there are difficulties of both theoretical and empirical/historical kinds and these explain why the ‘market order’ needs to be sustained by private and public order institutions.

In Part II, the role of generalised morality in backing or supplementing such institutions is discussed in the light of game theory, and particular emphasis is put on the ability of moral norms to sustain honest behaviour by generating the right kind of preferences and establishing trust. The vexed problem of the dynamics of norm emergence and erosion is then addressed with a view to showing that norms of generalised morality — perhaps contrary to moral norms in small groups — cannot be easily created by fiat nor be expected to evolve spontaneously when they are needed to make economic exchanges viable. Ultimately, the cultural endowment of a society plays a determining role in shaping its specific growth trajectory, and history therefore matters. Finally, to illustrate the theoretical discourse, reference is made to present‐day Third World countries. It is argued that economic development is especially difficult in countries where norms of limited‐group morality prevail and do not readily give way to generalised morality.     

The Economics of Poverty Traps and Persistent Poverty: Empirical and Policy Implications

The moral and economic imperatives to intervene in poverty traps motivate the identification of poverty traps and their structural causes so as to inform the design of appropriate policy responses. However, empirical identification remains challenging because of poverty traps’ complexity. After reviewing mechanisms that can generate poverty traps, we focus on one – multiple financial market failures – emphasising its heretofore underappreciated testable implications, including specific behaviours that are rational only in the presence of a poverty trap. We therefore recommend tests for these behaviours rather than more econometrically challenged efforts to directly test for poverty traps in estimated asset dynamics.     

Remittances,Poverty, Inequality and Welfare: Evidence from the Central Plateau of Burkina Faso

This paper applies Gini and concentration coefficient decomposition as well as the Foster-Greer-Thorbecke poverty index and the Stark-Yitzhaki welfare index to new data from four villages in Burkina Faso, to compare the marginal effects of remittances from intercontinental and intra-African migration on inequality, poverty and social welfare. Evidence is found that intra-African remittances reduce inequality while intercontinental remittances have the opposite effect. Also, it is found that although remittances from intercontinental migration are associated with much lower incidence, depth and severity of poverty, the marginal impact of remittances from this form of migration on social welfare is limited because recipients do not include the rural poor.     

扶贫济困:亚洲政党共同的责任——记亚洲政党扶贫专题会议

7月13—18日,亚洲政党扶贫专题会议在昆明举行,来自30个国家57个政党的120多名代表参加了会议。中方高度重视此次会议,中共中央总书记、国家主席胡锦涛向会议发来贺辞。会后,中共中央政治局常委、国家副主席习近平在北京会见了出席会议的亚洲各国政党代表。中共中央政治局委员、国务院副总理回良玉出席了17日的开幕式并发表主旨讲话。国际社会也高度关注此次会议,