Conflict management and constructive engagement in ASEAN's expansion

This article examines the expansion of membership in ASEAN which has occurred during the second half of the 1990s, and identifies the factors behind this process, with particular attention devoted to the efforts aimed at implementing the conflict management mechanisms of ASEAN on a wider regional level. The study takes as its starting point the rapprochement between the original member states of ASEAN and Vietnam and Laos, which began during the second half of the 1980s and gained momentum following the resolution of the Cambodian conflict in 1991. The first half of the 1990s was characterised by the gradual acceptance by other Southeast Asian countries of ASEAN's code of conduct for inter-state interaction. This paved the way for the accession to full membership in ASEAN of Vietnam in 1995, of Laos and Burma in 1997 and of Cambodia in late 1998. Given the considerable discrepancy in the level of economic development between the new and old members of ASEAN, the economic motivation for expanding ASEAN would be to facilitate foreign investment in the new members and open new markets for exports within an expanded ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA). The article argues, however, that the political and security considerations are more important in explaining why the original members embarked on the process aimed at bringing all 10 Southeast Asian countries into ASEAN. It is in this context that the policy of constructive engagement and peaceful management of inter-state conflicts comes into play.     

东盟跨境数据流动治理的机制构建

跨境数据流动是全球数字经济的重要基础,也是全球治理的新兴议题。在数字经济发展和东盟区域一体化的趋势下,东盟从统筹数字经济发展与数据保护入手,着眼于提升东盟国际竞争力和话语权,制定并完善跨境数据流动治理机制。这一机制的构建始于新加坡对数据保护规制的探索,基于东盟个人数据保护框架,在东盟数字一体化总体框架下制定数字管理框架,并以“东盟示范合同条款”和“东盟跨境数据流动认证”两大关键手段促进机制落实。该机制具有灵活性、包容性和指导性的特征,有利于促进东盟地区数字经济发展,降低谈判成本与合规成本,获得更多全球竞争优势。对于中国而言,在与东盟跨境数据流动治理机制合作对接方面具备可能性和可行性,需要充分认识和评估东盟机制对世界数字治理的影响、对地区数字经济秩序的挑战,推动中国与东盟之间的数字经济合作。     

RCEP:特点、问题与前景

作为世界最大的自由贸易安排,RCEP所取得的突破不仅有利于改善区域贸易与投资环境、增强区域供应链、推动经济复苏,还为区域经济一体化、全球贸易自由化、基于规则的多边贸易体制注入了前行的动力。同时,它对中国贸易和投资的可持续发展、高水平制度型开放、实施自由贸易区提升战略、构建国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局也可以发挥积极作用。RCEP以市场准入、规则、合作为支柱,具有开放包容、全面、高质量、互惠等诸多特点,并突出东盟方式与东盟中心地位。RCEP的后续生效实施与适时升级,将面临成员差异性与利益诉求复杂性、外部因素牵制、既有FTA规则的多样性与整合的难度、区域身份认同与大国协调等现实问题的挑战,仍需要以渐进灵活的方式,不断推动其深化和拓展。中国应一如既往支持东盟的主导地位,推动RCEP尽快生效。既要助力东盟提升凝聚力、加强大国协调,也要加速推进中日韩FTA谈判、加快与东盟成员的FTA构建。应不断提高规则利用率,充分发挥FTA本应具有的效应,以制度型开放营造良好营商环境,持续推动区域制度性经济一体化。     

ASEAN At 50: the global political economy’s contribution to durability

Why has the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) proved so durable as a regional organisation given the many challenges it has faced since its inception in 1967? This analysis makes use of an historical institutionalist approach. It shows how the global political economy, through the injection of aid and investment and the development of production networks and increased trade, generated a generally positive regional economic environment that encouraged cooperation. It also provided the resources for the gradual institutionalisation of ASEAN and the expansion of its reach through the establishment of associated regional organisations. The result was that these factors, in combination, contributed to ASEAN’s staying power.     

Contending eurocentric theories: the case study of Thailand's economic regionalism in ASEA

ABSTRACT

The Eurocentric theory of economic regionalism, as demonstrated by the empirical case of the European Union, has been widely recognized as the pathfinder, role model, and inspiration for other regional organizations, including ASEAN, due to its continuous attempts at deepening economic integration, formalizing the decision-making process, and legalizing the administrative body. Despite this concordant movement, it is evident from Thailand that ASEAN has evolved differently from the rationale, process, and prediction that Eurocentric theory dictates.

The purpose of this article is to argue that the economic regionalism of ASEAN has not developed in accordance with an economically-oriented rationale. Moreover, the process of economic integration has not necessarily derived from the free trade agreement itself, particularly when a country lacks continuity in terms of its development of regionalist projects. In addition, Thailand has not followed the path of economic integration due to spillover effects. This is because member countries have not given up their sovereignty in favour of the regional institution. Economic regional activities have been broadened within a limited scope, and the expansion has been conducted through bilateral talks, rather than a strengthening of regional solidarity.     

The Challenges to Cooperation Posed by the Nexus of Terrorism and Organized Crime: Comparing the Situations Between the Andean and the Sahel Regions

The recent conflict in the Sahel area is another case where the nexus of terrorism and organized crime causes challenges to the international community. Comparing the situation with that of the Andean region brings forth the challenges faced when dealing with this type of conflict: the states’ weak presence in the remote regions, the insurgents’ ability to offer income and “security” to the people, immediate threat to international investments, unresolved political/regional issues, the marriage of convenience of insurgents/terrorists and organized crime, internal divisions of the insurgent groups and also ideologies surviving or suffering after the elimination of their leaders.     

Community security: human security at 21

The concept of human security has come a long way since its introduction in the UNDP Human Development Report in 1994. There are now a number of global and regional initiatives aimed at promoting human security issues. However, the achievements over the last two decades may be less impressive when one starts to explicate the progress of each of the key elements subsumed under the broad concept of human security. This paper will examine the extent to which community security, as one of the elements of human security, has been advanced through the security discourses and practices in the international arena. Using ASEAN as a case study, the paper argues that the massive gaps in human development, security and democracy hinder progress in promoting community security. The paper further argues that in developing states, community security is still very much the domain of the state.     

Why (most) Indonesian businesses fear the ASEAN Economic Community: struggling with Southeast Asia’s regional corporatism

By the end of 2015 the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) had ushered in a common market, the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC). However, the groups most affected by it – small businesses – were bypassed in the decision-making process. They are the victims of a selectively inclusive state corporatism which member countries have transferred from their domestic political system to the regional level. In this article I argue that the decision to create the AEC was promoted by ASEAN governments together with foreign economic and local corporate interests. This coalition was able to frame the AEC in a way that small businesses perceived it as a win-win scheme. Empirically the article focuses on Indonesia.     

中国周边形势新变化与周边命运共同体构建

2017年以来,中国周边安全和经济形势发生重大变化。在安全上,美国以推动"印太"战略、强化美日和美韩同盟、借议题拉拢东盟等手段将战略布局深度集中到中国的周边地区;法国、英国、德国、欧盟也紧随其后,开始深度介入"印太"地区的经济合作、安全事务和互联互通进程。在经济上,全球化已进入"慢速"阶段且越来越以区域化的方式展开;而机器人、3D打印技术和可再生能源的发展和运用将继续推动区域化进程,周边国家与中国的经济联系对双方来说都更为重要。无论是在安全上还是在经济上,周边地区对中国发展的重要性都在迅速上升。中国应更加重视周边外交在总体外交布局中的地位,要总结历史和当代中国营造良好周边环境的经验;争取处理好中美日、中美韩、中日韩、中俄印等一些大三角关系;将周边地区打造成为中国构建新发展格局的节点和高质量推动"一带一路"建设的引领示范地区;积极提供地区公共产品,推动构建周边命运共同体。     

Financial crises as catalysts for regional cooperation? Chances and obstacles for financial integration in ASEAN+3, MERCOSUR and the eurozone

This article compares and analyses the different answers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations+3 (ASEAN+3), Mercado Común del Dur (MERCOSUR) and the eurozone on financial crises in their respective regions. All three regions were hit by economic turmoil between 1997 and 2012, but whereas ASEAN+3 and the eurozone answered with establishing regional liquidity arrangements (RLAs) in order to fight future crises, financial cooperation did not take off in MERCOSUR. Thus, the paper asks why some regions establish RLAs in cases of crisis and others do not. It argues that the variance of regional financial integration in different world regions is due to different interests of regional powers in their respective regions. The regional powers of ASEAN+3 and the eurozone are institutionally and/or economically highly embedded within their respective regions, but this is not the case for Brazil in MERCOSUR. China and Japan suffered from negative externalities of the Asian crisis, and, consequently, have had an interest to stabilize their neighbours’ economies after the crisis. In contrast, Brazil was able to follow a beggar-thy-neighbour strategy at the turn of the millennium, which externalized some of the costs of Brazil's own economic crisis towards Argentina. As a result, Brazil has had no interest in providing liquidity for its regional neighbours after the crisis. France and Germany are not only economically but also institutionally highly embedded in the eurozone because they share a common currency with their regional neighbours. Thus, the stability of the eurozone is a vital interest for Europe's regional powers, and they devote significant resources to stabilize the economies of the eurozone's periphery.     

From Konfrontasi to Disintegrasi : ASEAN and the Rise of Islamism in Southeast Asia

This article evaluates the development of militant Islamic threats in Southeast Asia from the early 1990s onwards and its security implications for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The analysis contends that the extent of extremist Islamic infiltration of the region was obscured by governmental rhetoric, along with much Western opinion, which argued erroneously that ASEAN was following a unique developmental path based on shared regional values that had resulted in economic growth and political stability. However, by ignoring underlying religiously motivated tensions within and among its membership, and by refusing to countenance mature debate about them within their societies, ASEAN has succeeded only in incubating its potential nemesis.     

ASEAN’s governance of migrant worker rights

Temporary migrant workers in Southeast Asia are subject to various abuses in recruitment, work and repatriation. A decade ago ASEAN governments committed to developing an Instrument governing migrant worker rights, but a series of deadlocks have stymied this agreement. Prevailing accounts explain this impasse as the consequence of incompatible national interests, norms of non-interference and consensus, a lack of institutional capacity and the limits of rights advocacy in ASEAN. Conversely, utilising a political economy framework, this article demonstrates this impasse in regional governance reflects societal-level conflicts among migrant workers, civil society organisations, business groups and state-based actors, generated by the latter’s adoption of migrant labour as both a livelihood and development strategy.     

Third World states as intervenors in ethnic conflicts: Implications for regional and international security

Third party involvement in internal ethnic conflicts has generated much interest in the post-cold war period. Yet few systematic studies focus on Third World states, which are among the most frequent intervenors in intrastate disputes. This article presents an initial empirical assessment of 975 interventions by third world states in ethnic conflicts in the South during the 1990s. It reveals that, contrary to expectations, the end of the Cold War has not led to a significant change in either major power or regional power interventions. Over one-half of all interventions are undertaken by states located in the region where the conflict occurs. Neighbours and regional powers can potentially threaten regional and international stability as they choose to furnish military assistance to ethnic groups in some 60% of their interventions. Conflicts involving ethnic groups seeking autonomy or secession are among the most likely to attract outside patrons.     

ASEAN and evolving power relations in East Asia: strategies and constraints

This article seeks to examine constraints and challenges that the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) states are confronted with in formulating and implementing their strategies in response to evolving regional environments represented by the rise of China. It argues that China's southern neighbours have adopted purposeful strategies in order to mitigate potentially negative effects from China's growing capabilities in East Asia. These strategies led to the expansion of membership in the East Asia Summit (EAS) and positive involvement in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement, encouraging America's substantial commitments to the Asia-Pacific. However, ASEAN has failed to form the unified front on the EAS and TPP because its members have adopted diverse stances on and policies towards the two institutions. Moreover, an identity issue constitutes a crucial impediment to promoting cooperation between ASEAN members and the USA. While Washington has intensified diplomatic linkages with ASEAN, the US identity shown in its adherence to the results-oriented approach still provokes some concerns among the ASEAN members.     

Global Citizens or Faraway Viewers? São Paulo Residents Talk About the 2006 Lebanon Conflict

As the emergence of a global public sphere becomes a possibility, growing out of denser economic, political and communicative networks as well as demanded by increasingly complex international problems, questions arise about the capacity and willingness of various national publics to engage in the global debate. This paper shows the results of a news reception analysis with the public of the city of São Paulo, Brazil during the months of July–November 2006, when the Lebanon conflict was broadly covered by the Brazilian media. The paper identifies the modes of engagement with the news about the international conflict, the types of reasoning used by these publics in interpreting the news, and the types of debates and conversations they have or don’t have about the conflict. Special attention is given to the personal experience of learning about conflicts abroad and to the relationship between this experience and the construction of a new civic identity where participation in global affairs is an important element. The research shows that São Paulo residents are informed and care about international events, but to a large extent lack the resources and the spaces where they could reflect upon them. It also shows that young people tend to experience global events more intensely as part of their world than the general population.     

The Uses of Sovereignty in Twenty-first Century Russian Foreign Policy

Contemporary Russian foreign policy demonstrates a dual approach to state sovereignty, using a Westphalian model of sovereignty outside the former Soviet region and a post-Soviet model inside it. This approach performs three functions in contemporary Russian foreign policy: securing Russian national interests at domestic, regional, and international levels; balancing against the United States; and acting as a marker of ‘non-Western’ power identity in an emergent multipolar order. The conflict between these two models increasingly appears to threaten the last of these objectives, however, and as a means of advancing foreign policy objectives the approach thus appears caught in a self-defeating logic.     

The Homecomings: What Happens When Arab Foreign Fighters in Iraq and Syria Return?

What threat do foreign Arab jihadists returning from the war in Syria and Iraq pose to their home states and the broader Arab world? Foreign fighters come back as hardened veterans, steady in the face of danger and skilled in the use of weapons and explosives. While in the conflict zone, they will form networks with other radicals, embrace techniques like suicide bombings and beheadings, and establish ties to jihadists around the world. Different countries have different mitigating factors that limit the danger. The presence or absence of strong and focused security services is particularly important. Returnees' ambition, regional focus, lack of discipline, and brutality often mean they create more enemies than they vanquish and anger local populations. Most terrorism will be locally and regionally focused, with international terrorism probably less of a priority. Area regimes can reduce the risk of bleedout by hindering the travel of volunteers and constraining their ability to organize, stressing the internecine nature of the violence in the Sunni Muslim community, and developing effective de-radicalization programs. Regional and international cooperation to monitor and disrupt travel is also valuable. Many regimes, however, are also likely to take advantage of the jihadists' presence to gain more support from the United States, delay democratic reforms, and crackdown on non-jihadist opposition. Improving intelligence sharing and offensive counterintelligence is important, and the United States can play an important facilitating role.     

The Politics of International Law in the Post-Soviet Space: Do Georgia,Ukraine, and Russia ‘Speak’ International Law in International Politics Differently?

Abstract

Since the Soviet Union’s collapse, Ukraine, Georgia and Russia have faced the challenge of taking their positions in the politics of international law as part of their transformation processes. Strong dynamics of conflict have shaped these states’ politico-legal actions and interactions, for example, the Russo–Georgian War, the annexation of Crimea and the armed conflict in East Ukraine. This essay explores whether, how and why Georgia, Ukraine and Russia ‘speak’ international law in international politics differently. It discusses conceptual approaches to empirically analysing the processes of translating political preferences into legal arguments as well as how ‘communicators of international law’ in the post-Soviet region use the language of international law differently.     

From “frozen conflict” to enduring rivalry: reassessing the Nagorny Karabakh conflict

This article draws on international relations theory to attempt a reframing of the Armenian–Azerbaijani conflict in Nagorny Karabakh as an enduring rivalry (ER): a particular kind of interstate conflict known for its longevity and stability. The article begins by identifying a number of conceptual deficits circulating around this conflict, notably the notion that it is a “frozen conflict,” before introducing the ER framework and its analytical dividends for this case. Different layers of the ER between Armenia and Azerbaijan are then explored at systemic, interstate, domestic, decision-maker, and temporal levels, with a view more toward identifying directions for future research than conclusive findings. Among the article's tentative conclusions are the primacy of endogenous over exogenous factors in explaining the durability of the rivalry between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the impacts of the passage of time on the human and physical geography of the territory under dispute, and the convergence of conflict dynamics across disparate levels.