RCEP:特点、问题与前景

作为世界最大的自由贸易安排,RCEP所取得的突破不仅有利于改善区域贸易与投资环境、增强区域供应链、推动经济复苏,还为区域经济一体化、全球贸易自由化、基于规则的多边贸易体制注入了前行的动力。同时,它对中国贸易和投资的可持续发展、高水平制度型开放、实施自由贸易区提升战略、构建国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局也可以发挥积极作用。RCEP以市场准入、规则、合作为支柱,具有开放包容、全面、高质量、互惠等诸多特点,并突出东盟方式与东盟中心地位。RCEP的后续生效实施与适时升级,将面临成员差异性与利益诉求复杂性、外部因素牵制、既有FTA规则的多样性与整合的难度、区域身份认同与大国协调等现实问题的挑战,仍需要以渐进灵活的方式,不断推动其深化和拓展。中国应一如既往支持东盟的主导地位,推动RCEP尽快生效。既要助力东盟提升凝聚力、加强大国协调,也要加速推进中日韩FTA谈判、加快与东盟成员的FTA构建。应不断提高规则利用率,充分发挥FTA本应具有的效应,以制度型开放营造良好营商环境,持续推动区域制度性经济一体化。     

A tango by two superpowers: China-US cooperation in trilateral aid and implications for their bilateral relations

The US-China relationship continues to be characterized by both competition and cooperation in recent years. Cooperation in the development sector is one little-known new aspect of such cooperation. This paper therefore examines why and how the two superpowers have undertaken cooperation in trilateral aid projects, and implications for bilateral relations. By tracing China-US policy engagement on development cooperation and examining their most recent trilateral aid project in the Asia-Pacific region, the paper argues that the US aims to use trilateral aid cooperation to engage with China and shape it into a responsible stakeholder, while China uses trilateral cooperation to build a cooperative image and facilitate the broad China-US relationship.     

Sino-Japanese Energy Relations: Processes and Constraints

Abstract

Economic growth and a resultant rise in energy demand in China and other East Asian countries have attracted academic interests in energy security and energy cooperation. This article examines the nuanced development of institutions to realise Sino-Japanese energy cooperation at the bilateral and regional levels. It highlights the objective and process of cooperative engagements in terms of relative gain concern and the involvement of non-state actors. The arguments that this article advances are three-fold. First, the Japanese government has pushed forwards multilateral energy cooperation in East Asia and bilateral cooperation for energy conservation with China, which would produce both economic and political gains. Second, the Chinese government has adopted a cautious approach to Japan's energy engagements largely because it took into account the relative political gains of committing to such engagements in addition to the economic gains produced by them. Third, the involvement of non-state actors in cooperative projects and their meaningful roles in forging cross-border linkages could play a catalytic role in advancing cooperative processes.     

日本参加“跨太平洋战略经济伙伴协定”谈判的主要考虑及其影响

"跨太平洋战略经济伙伴协定"作为美国重返亚太地区的重要战略之一近年得到国际社会广泛关注。日本作为东亚区域合作的重要国家在东亚区域合作政策上采取何种立场在很大程度上反映出日本大国外交的趋向。野田新内阁已经明确表示参加TPP谈判。日本热切参加TPP谈判的主要意图是重振日本经济,在地区问题上纠偏中美关系,制约中国在地区合作进程中的影响。参加谈判可能给日本国内政治带来分裂,也将对东亚地区合作进程带来影响。     

Economic interest or security concerns? Which affected how individuals in five Asian countries—Indonesia,Japan, Malaysia,the Philippines,and South Korea—viewed China in 2013?

With rapid economic growth, China has become its neighbours’ largest trade partner in the twenty-first century. At the same time, the growth of China’s military and its assertiveness are raising concerns among its neighbours that China’s rise will pose a threat to them. In this context, will China’s neighbours—Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, the Philippines, and South Korea—view China positively or negatively? By using statistical analysis, this paper aims to explore whether individuals are more affected by their economic position or national security concerns when they view China. The findings in this article suggest that individuals’ security concerns have stronger associations with their attitudes toward China than economic conditions. Specifically, individuals’ views on China’s military growth and territorial disputes had negative effects on their attitudes toward China. On the other hand, economic interests had weaker associations with individuals’ views of China than security concerns.     

In Search of Regional Governance in East Asia: Processes and Outcomes

Abstract

This article employs the concept of ‘regional governance’ to analyze both the processes and outcomes of the emerging regional institutional arrangements in East Asia. It argues that while ASEAN has played a significant role in creating and sustaining the ‘processes’ of wider East Asian regional governance efforts, the level of achievement in translating these processes into tangible ‘outcomes’ remains severely constrained by great power rivalry, especially between Japan and China. By focusing on the areas of trade and finance, this article argues that the varying levels of outcomes between these two issue areas can be explained primarily by the degree of convergence between Japanese and Chinese interests. In particular, while Japan and China have a shared interest in contributing to the promotion of regional financial stability, they strongly disagree over the appropriate form and contours of a trade governance system.     

The Benefits of Globalization: Why More for South Korea than Mexico?

ABSTRACT

This article examines the arguments for globalization and analyzes Mexico’s “maquiladora experience,” which indicates that globalization alone does not bring about a higher standard of living. The primary reason that Mexico has not benefitted as much as might be expected from globalization has to do with the poor quality of its governance, referring especially to public administration. This assertion is supported by a comparison of Mexico and South Korea. In explaining South Korea’s greater success, Political Elasticity (PE) theory is introduced, suggesting that political power needs to become elastic in two meanings of this word: a “rubber band” meaning (referring to the ability of leaders to delegate power without losing or diminishing it) and “a balloon meaning” (having to do with the ability of leaders to reliably influence the behavior of the general public). Based upon studies of rural and industrial development, South Korea is shown to be more politically elastic than Mexico. This article concludes by examining the lessons that Mexico can learn from Korea’s experience.     

中国周边形势新变化与周边命运共同体构建

2017年以来,中国周边安全和经济形势发生重大变化。在安全上,美国以推动"印太"战略、强化美日和美韩同盟、借议题拉拢东盟等手段将战略布局深度集中到中国的周边地区;法国、英国、德国、欧盟也紧随其后,开始深度介入"印太"地区的经济合作、安全事务和互联互通进程。在经济上,全球化已进入"慢速"阶段且越来越以区域化的方式展开;而机器人、3D打印技术和可再生能源的发展和运用将继续推动区域化进程,周边国家与中国的经济联系对双方来说都更为重要。无论是在安全上还是在经济上,周边地区对中国发展的重要性都在迅速上升。中国应更加重视周边外交在总体外交布局中的地位,要总结历史和当代中国营造良好周边环境的经验;争取处理好中美日、中美韩、中日韩、中俄印等一些大三角关系;将周边地区打造成为中国构建新发展格局的节点和高质量推动"一带一路"建设的引领示范地区;积极提供地区公共产品,推动构建周边命运共同体。     

Feature reviews

China is now the world's second largest oil consuming nation. China's external quest for oil has thus generated much attention and is believed by many to destabilise the world order. This article attempts to provide an overview of China's external initiatives for satisfying domestic oil demands and to examine the implications of China's oil diplomacy on regional and global political stability. The article suggests that China has taken three steps to satisfy its growing domestic demand for oil—expanding overseas oil supplies from the Middle East, diversifying its importing sources by reaching out to Africa, Russia, Central Asia and the Americas, and securing oil transport routes. This article argues that China's oil diplomacy strengthens its ties with oil-producing nations and complicates those with oil-importing nations. Nevertheless, contrary to pessimistic predictions, China's oil diplomacy has neither upset the USA's fundamental policies towards Iraq and Iran, nor has it generated armed clashes in the South China Sea. China has largely accommodated the USA in these areas and has forged joint efforts in energy exploration with its Asian neighbours, except for Japan. China's benign oil diplomacy can be explained by the minor role of oil imports in its energy consumption and, more importantly, by China's peaceful-rise strategy.     

Emerging powers,soft power,and future of regional cooperation in South Asia

This article looks into the future of regional cooperation in South Asia in the light of two emerging powers: China and India focussing on how their rise would change the relationship in the region. The paper argues that China and India both are trying to enhance their spheres of influence forcing the states in the region to align with either of them in a binary framework of unstable equilibrium and uneasy coexistence rather than reinforcing the regional solidarity of SAARC. Such a competition between China and India and the putative interventionary efforts of Western powers and their agencies in the region are bound to bring implications of profound value for not just regional cooperation but for the individual destinies of the various states involved in the days ahead.     

Between development and the state: Recasting South Korean dirigisme

This article offers an alternative understanding and a critique of how South Korea's development has been interpreted by various scholars. The proponents of developmental state overlook the fact that South Korean dirigisme harmed equity, democracy, social cohesion, and thus the people's ability to take the initiative and form a viable civil society. By considering how the state meddled with the economy as a deliberately selected course, an analysis can be made of the dysfunction of developmental statism or “diseased” dirigisme. The inequity between the deprivations suffered by small firm operators and other citizens and the gains reaped by a few business conglomerates (or chaebol), remains symptomatic of South Korea's dirigiste disease. The dominant themes in the current economic discourses are privatisation, marketisation, deregulation and the rolling‐back of the welfare state. However, liberalising the economy without state reform may aggravate the dirigiste disease in South Korea. By linking the state‐led and people‐centred arguments, this article provides a fresh discourse on principles of policy‐making and state‐action to broaden the valuation of development beyond economic efficiency or competitiveness.     

The new diplomacy of the South: South Africa,Brazil, India and trilateralism

In the aftermath of 9/11 surely of great significance is the reassertion of the South – North divide as a defining axis of the international system. In this context the emergence of a coterie of Southern countries actively challenging the position and assumptions of the leading states of the North is an especially significant event. The activism on the part of three middle-income developing countries in particular—South Africa, Brazil and India—has resulted in the creation of a ‘trilateralist’ diplomatic partnership, itself a reflection of broader transformations across the developing world in the wake of globalisation. This article will examine the rise of the co-operative strategy known as ‘trilateralism’ by regional leaders within the South. Specifically it will look at the relationship between emerging regional powers in the context of multilateralism, as well as at the formulation and implementation of trilateralism. As with previous co-operative efforts in the developing world, the prospects of success are rooted in overlapping domestic, regional and international influences on South African, Brazilian and Indian foreign policies. The article will conclude with an assessment of these influences over the trilateral agenda.     

Impact evaluations in South Korea and China

While evidence-based policy-making is increasingly in demand, as new policies are required to bring effective results to targeted groups in South Korea and China, few studies have investigated the progress of quantitative impact evaluation that focuses on causality. This paper studies the trends of quantitative impact evaluation of public policy in South Korea and China by surveying major public administration and public policy journals in these two countries from 2000 to 2015. Among published articles in the major journals, our study pool includes research articles directly related to quantitative impact evaluation. Our study found that there has been considerable progress in impact evaluation research in South Korea and China in both data quality and empirical methods. However, empirical impact evaluation still comprises a small fraction (only one to two percent) of all research in public administration and public policy in both countries. We also found limited discussion on the selection mechanism and related bias in South Korea even in recent years, while causality and selection bias have been more commonly discussed in China. Also, advanced empirical methods are more frequently observed in journal articles in China than those in South Korea.     

Crafting democratic control of the military in South Korea and the Philippines: the problem of military factions

This article explores how a military's organizational character (cohesion or lack thereof) shapes military officers' attitudes toward new civilian leadership in democratizing South Korea and the Philippines. It suggests that a factionalized military makes civilian control much more difficult and the route to democratic consolidation highly unstable and incomplete for three reasons. First, in the factionalized army, individual officers' allegiance is directed toward their factional leaders, not toward the military as a unified body and the civilian leadership. Second, factionalized military will create ‘monitoring’ and ‘sanctioning’ problems for civilians. Finally, competition among various factions in the military promotes officers' appetite for political domination. The structured-focused analysis of democratization in South Korea and the Philippines clearly sustains the theoretical arguments. The study implies that the institutionalization of civilian control of the military in democratizing nations depends on new leaders' ability/willingness to remove military factions and rebuild the armed forces into a cohesive organ.     

The Olympic Games,human rights and democratisation: Lessons from Seoul and implications for Beijing

The experience of the Seoul Olympics in 1988 has led major games boosters to boldly assert their liberalising potential, especially in the context of the Beijing Games of 2008. This paper examines whether in the post-Cold War and post-9/11 eras, there is a sound basis for such arguments. It begins by re-examining the lessons of the Seoul Olympics to clarify the Games' contribution to the democratisation of Korea, as catalyst though not cause. It then assesses the applicability of the lessons of Seoul to Beijing given the different contexts of their 'Olympic journeys'. Finally, based on this comparison it considers the ways in which the 2008 Games may affect prospects for human rights improvements and political liberalisation in the People's Republic of China. While the outcomes of this process are likely to be quite different from the western-style liberal democratisation that occurred in South Korea, the process of engagement between 21st Century China and 21st Century Olympism holds the possibility of stimulating a fruitful, dialogic, and progressive exchange on rights issues.     

The developmental state: Israel, South Korea, and Taiwan compared

The growth performances of the Israeli economy during the years 1948–1973 were excellent by any criteria, and are comparable to the “miraculous” performances of South Korea and Taiwan. Excellent economic performances in the three countries were accompanied by the presence of an autonomous and an interventionist state as well as by strategies of governed development (in the spheres of finance, investment, and international trade). The comparison is used, to shed new light on the Israeli political economy as well as on the replicability of the developmental state model across regions, cultures, and political regimes. First, by comparing the three countries and pointing to the similarities in the role and autonomy of the state, the article offers a different interpretation of the Israeli economy from that offered by both neoclassical and neomarxist interpretations of the Israeli political economy. Second, successful cases of develoment are rare in our world; this should make the study of the Israeli political economy a valuable case-study for the proponents of the developmental state model. By pointing out the similarities in the growth performances and the developmental strategies of Israel, Taiwan, and South Korea, as well as the dissimilarities in their political regimes, their cultural traditions, and their regional settings, this article further strengthens the arguments in favor of state-guided economic development in developing countries. David Levi-Faur is a lecturer of comparative public policy and business and politics at the University of Haifa. He was a visiting scholar at the L.S.E., University of California, Berkeley, the University of Utrecht, and the University of Amsterdam.     

The Locusts of Corruption

Never before in history have China and Japan been great powers at the same time. Today they must figure out how to live together as equals. The promise of mutual prosperity ties them together; the remembrance of bad things past pushes them apart. If that wary dance were not complicated enough, a nuclear provocateur from neighboring North Korea intrudes. A legendary figure of Japan's post‐war miracle, Tsuneo Watanabe, weighs in on these big questions. Hans Blix, a former UN arms inspector and the former South Korean prime minister and Nobel laureate, Kim Dae Jung, address the North Korean conundrum.     

US Holds Key to Non‐Proliferation

Never before in history have China and Japan been great powers at the same time. Today they must figure out how to live together as equals. The promise of mutual prosperity ties them together; the remembrance of bad things past pushes them apart. If that wary dance were not complicated enough, a nuclear provocateur from neighboring North Korea intrudes. A legendary figure of Japan's post‐war miracle, Tsuneo Watanabe, weighs in on these big questions. Hans Blix, a former UN arms inspector and the former South Korean prime minister and Nobel laureate, Kim Dae Jung, address the North Korean conundrum.     

President Bush: Talk to Kim Jong II

Never before in history have China and Japan been great powers at the same time. Today they must figure out how to live together as equals. The promise of mutual prosperity ties them together; the remembrance of bad things past pushes them apart. If that wary dance were not complicated enough, a nuclear provocateur from neighboring North Korea intrudes. A legendary figure of Japan's post‐war miracle, Tsuneo Watanabe, weighs in on these big questions. Hans Blix, a former UN arms inspector and the former South Korean prime minister and Nobel laureate, Kim Dae Jung, address the North Korean conundrum.