Several Thoughts on Future U. S. Economic Policies

To discuss the trend of the U. S. policies after the presidential election, economic dimension is undoubted very important. My view is that the new Bush administration will not largely adjust the existing e- conomic policies; however it may adopt more trade protectionist meth- ods. First, the new Bush administration will continue the tax reduction policy. In the first Bush presidency, five tax reduction bills have al- ready passed, including the Senate 2004 Job Opportunity Creation Act whi…     

Can Europe Fill the Void in U.S. Military Leadership?

This article lays out the case for why Washington's European allies are incapable, both now and in the foreseeable future, of replacing American military leadership. Despite recent substantial force contributions in Iraq and Afghanistan and small-scale interventions in Africa, European military capabilities are limited, declining, and unlikely to rebound, regardless of whether the United States is in strategic retreat. As a result, the United States faces a bleak choice: not whether to trade American global leadership for an equally benevolent European world order, but whether to give up its mantle of leadership and thereby create a void that may be filled by unfriendly, if not overtly hostile, actors.     

Democracy,human rights,and U.S.‐Africa trade

The nexus of economic and political relations is a central issue in international relations, and the influence of political liberalization upon trade ties lies at the center of much liberal theory. However, many facets of the empirical linkage between political liberalization—including democratization and the respect for human rights—and trade remain uninvestigated. Examining the case of U.S.‐Africa trade, this study considers two unexplored facets of these political determinants of trade: (1) the role of human rights conditions, and (2) the robustness of the relationship between democracy, human rights, and trade across a subset of vertical dyads. Using a gravity model to assess trade patterns, we find that neither democracy nor human rights conditions has a significant impact upon U.S. trade to Africa.     

Whither U.S. economic slide?

Asharp ecohomic slide began in U. S. economy since the second half of last year after a sustained robust growth lasting close to a decade. Three successive Federal Reserve Board's (FRB) interest rate cuts amounting to 1. 5 percentage points have thus far failed to check the downturn. The situation is more grave than expected with the bottom-out not yet in sight. The recovery period may be a longdrawn-out affair, yet a traditional depression may be avoidable, not to say a repeat of enduring recession in Japanese style.     

How Far Can China-U.S. Relations Go?

TheSino-U.S.Tangle Beijing-Washingtonconnectioncanarguablybeportrayedasthe mostmind-bogglingtangleinworldhistory.Otherbilateralstructural linkssuchasU.S.-RussiaorTransatlanticrelationspalebesidethe mazeofheadachesbetweenthetwocapitals:differencesinideologyand socialsystem,1clashesofcivilizations,2geopoliticalfrictions,3“anatu-ralstandoff”betweenarisingpowerandtheexistenthegemony4and theseeminglyintractableconflictsofinterestsontheTaiwanissue.Thissaidthough,theextentofbilateralstructuralt…     

Is U.S.Diplomacy Entering the Post-Obama Era ?

After the U.S.mid-term elections in November 2014,the Obama administration entered alame-duckperiod.As the Republicans have controlled both the House of Representatives and the Senate,public opinion generally holds that the Obama administration is due to face greater difficulties over the next two years.But as the U.S.political system allows the President of the United States to act more independently in the field of foreign affairs than in that of internal affairs,he can still make a difference here without being hindered by political affairs,even during the last two years of his presidency.In recent history,Ronald Reagan was a typical case in point:he achieved significant success in foreign affairs during the last two years of his tenure.Bill Clinton and George W.Bush     

How to Properly Assess U.S. Position of Strength?

Intheaftermathof9/11eventsandtheIraqwar,thereappeartwoentirelydifferentpointsofviewwithintheChineseacademiccirclesinregardtotheU.S.positionofstrength.Oneviewholdsthatthe9/11eventslaybaretheextremelyfragileaspectoftheU.S.asasuperpower.TheIraqwarisasymboliceventthatshowsthewaxandwaneoftheAmericanEmpire.Anotherviewbelievesthatinsteadofbeing"onthedecline"afterthe9/11events,theU.S.hasmademono-polarpatternmorestableandtheU.S.positionofstrengthmorefirmlyestablishedaftertheIraqwar.Untilnow,thisd…     

How Can the U.S. and China Build a ＂Cooperative Partnership＂？

The relationship between the U.S.and China needs to be stabilized under a new definition in this post-global financial crisis period.Stability is possible if both sides work hard together to build a "cooperative partnership." Under this new definition,over the next few decades,both countries should work towards cooperation at the top level,building closer ties,and establishing a foundation of deep-rooted mutual trust.     

U.S. Mid-term Elections and America’s China Policy in the Coming One or Two Years

The Democratic Party won a majority in both houses of the Congress for the first time since 1994 in the recent U.S. mid-term elections. By analyzing the major reasons for the Democratic Party's victory in the elections, we can conclude that in the coming one or two years, the U.S. domestic politics will focus on     

How Can China, the U.S. and China＇ s Neighbors Interact Positively？

New DevelopmentsBefore the 2008 financial crisis,and especially before the U.S.began its return to Asia,relations between China,the U.S.and China's neighbors in East Asia were not a major issue.However,since 2010,relations have been stirred up.Take the Cheonan incident,the shelling of Yeonpyeong Island,the Diaoyu Islands dispute between China and Japan,the Huangyan Island confrontation between China and the Philippines,and the South China Sea issue,for example.Sino-U.S.relations have grown more complex,and sovereignty disputes between China and some of its neighbors have intensified.At the same time,relations between the U.S.and most of China'sneighbors have improved.The U.S.' decision to pivot to Asia contains many objectives.     

How Real Is the So-called China Threat to U.S .Backyard?

ThenascentU.S.nervousscreamsatChineseactivitiesinLatinAmericacatchtheeyewiththeirdubioustiming,hystericalcon tentandrelevancetoChina U.S.relations.Whysuchafussover normalChinesemovesinthatregion?CantheimportsofChinese goodstherepossiblyimplyanyimaginarysecurityrisktotheUnited States?IsthereanygroundforskepticismaboutChineseintentions?HowshouldChinainteractwiththeUnitedStatesinthatregion?TheseareallupshotsofcloserChinesetieswiththeUnitedStatesand itssouthernneighbors,freshissuesthatclai…     

Progressivism Armed? Reform and the Origins of the Modern U.S. Military

During the four decades before World War I, both the United States Army and the United States Navy underwent a massive transformation. What had been a frontier constabulary in 1880 became a world class army in 1918. What had been a hodgepodge of obsolete vessels in the 1880s emerged as a force second only to the Royal Navy during the same period. This article discusses the factors that help account for this remarkable change.     

Who Cares about the Weather?: Climate Change and U.S. National Security

Is climate change a national security threat to the United States? This question remains a subject of debate in academia and has received renewed emphasis in the policy community. Even taking a narrow definition of national security, climate change already constitutes a national security threat to the United States, both in terms of direct threats to the country as well as its broader extraterritorial interests. While some of these purported threats—abrupt climate change and sea-level rise—have been overstated by advocates, several concerns, mostly related to the effects of extreme weather events on the United States and its strategic interests overseas, are sufficient enough that they already constitute security threats. That climate change potentially poses a direct threat to the U.S. homeland and its overseas interests suggests the subject warrants serious attention.     

Is there a U.S.–China–India triangle? – Beijing’s official views

ABSTRACT

This research examines China’s official perspectives on, and interpretation of, U.S.-China-India relations by surveying official, quasi-official, and some most relevant scholarly publications. China’s official line has always emphasized the bilateral nature of the relationship between China and India fending off any third-party interference, including that from the United States. Neither Chinese leaders nor the regime’s official media outlets would speak of China–India relationship with a triangular framework (with a rare exception of the Russia–India–China triangle). In the context of the rapid evolvement of U.S.-India military cooperation, the Chinese official line remains unforthcoming about whether such developments have direct implication for China’s security or national interests. Chinese core official media has in fact minimized the popularization of the idea that containing China is the driving force behind any cooperation between India and the United States.     

If Not Soft Balancing,Then What? Reconsidering Soft Balancing and U.S. Policy Toward China

Some scholars argue that soft balancing is a typical state behavior against the hegemon under unipolarity. Others contend that soft balancing against the hegemon is ineffective. We challenge both arguments and suggest that soft balancing is not only a product of specific configurations of the power distribution in the system, unipolarity, but also a rational behavior under another condition, economic dependence. We argue that the interplay between power disparity and economic dependence shapes a state's decision in choosing different balancing strategies. The higher the power disparity and economic dependence, the more likely a state chooses soft balancing to pursue its security. Using U.S. policy toward China after the Cold War as a crucial test, we suggest that the huge power gap and increasing economic interdependence between the United States and China shape U.S. soft balancing rather than hard balancing toward China. We conclude that future U.S.-China relations depend on whether the United States declines as a result of China's rise and on the degree of economic interdependence between the two countries.     

Chinese influence,U.S. linkages,or neither? Comparing regime changes in Myanmar and Thailand

This study examines the potential influence of foreign linkages on regime outcomes by comparing Myanmar and Thailand. Linkages with the West are supposed to facilitate democratization, whereas those with autocracies usually promote regime survival. This study focuses on Myanmar and Thailand’s linkages with the U.S. and China, which at first sight seem to demonstrate the hypothesized effects. Myanmar gradually liberalized while strengthening its Western linkages, whereas Thailand experienced democratic breakdown amid a shift in alignment from the U.S. to China. However, in-depth analysis suggests that the influence of foreign linkages on domestic political change was minimal and that the relationship may very well be endogenous. The findings of this study call for a more careful theorization and handling of the external factors in studies of regime change and highlight the importance of simultaneously analyzing democratic and autocratic linkages.     

A Review of: “The U.S. Catholic Press on Central America: From Cold War Anticommunism to Social Justice,by Edward T. Brett”

In a few short years, the World Wide Web has become a standard part of candidates' campaign tool kits. Virtually all candidates have their own sites, and voters, journalists, and activists visit the sites with increasing frequency. In this article, we study what candidates do on these sites—in terms of the information they present—by exploring one of the most enduring and widely debated campaign strategies: “going negative.” Comparing data from over 700 congressional candidate Web sites, over three election cycles (2002, 2004, and 2006), with television advertising data, we show that candidates go negative with similar likelihoods across these media. We also find that while similar dynamics drive negativity on the Web and in television advertising, there are some notable differences. These differences likely stem, in part, from the truncated sample available with television data (i.e., many candidates do not produce ads). Our results have implications for understanding negative campaigning and for the ways in which scholars can study campaign dynamics.