土库曼斯坦首任民选总统别尔德穆罕默多夫

2007年2月11日，土库曼斯坦代总统古尔班古雷·别尔德穆罕默多夫（Гурбангулы　Ъердымухаммедов，以下简称别）在土举行的首次由多个候选人参加的总统大选中，以89．23％的高支持率当选为土独立以来的首任民选总统，同时兼任国家武装力量最高总司令和政府总理，并于2月14日宣誓就职，任期5年。     

土库曼斯坦国家发展战略

土库曼斯坦总统候选人、现任总统别尔德穆哈梅多夫在2012年2月12日刚刚结束的土总统大选第一轮投票中,以97.14%的超高支持率,毫无悬念地顺利连任至2017年。别尔德穆哈梅多夫从2007年执政以来,对国家发展战略不断作出调整以因应形势变化,缓解西方民主压力,迎接新时代的考验。     

土库曼斯坦天然气多元出口线路

据土库曼斯坦官方正式公布的统计数字显示,土库曼斯坦天然气的探明储量为4.97万亿立方米,①预计可持续保持60年的600—700亿立方米年开采量。2011年10月11日土官方又透露,乐观估计土库曼斯坦天然气的潜在储量超30万亿立方米,     

美国新中亚战略评析

美国公布新的中亚战略包含四方面调整,即将中亚地区视为独立的地缘政治板块、将阿富汗视为中亚一部分、明确将在中亚加强对俄罗斯和中国的遏制、重新界定美国在该地区的比较优势。新中亚战略的实施将会对中亚地区稳定和主要大国在该地区互动产生一定影响。但由于美国在实施该战略中投入力度有限、比较优势不明显,中亚国家不会轻易改变自身多元平衡外交政策、对阿富汗及其局势的认知与美有明显差异,以及美国在中亚地区的战略冒进可能引发大国反制,新战略的实施不会一帆风顺。     

阿富汗大变局:地缘政治和安全格局的演变

当前,阿富汗正在经历重大变局.阿富汗塔利班(阿塔)成功卷土重来,并且完成临时政府组建.尽管仍有多重挑战,但阿塔执政已不存在根本性威胁.这引发阿富汗地缘政治格局和地区安全形势的深度调整.在地缘政治格局方面,整体呈现"美国西方影响力下降,地区国家影响力上升"这一"东升西降"趋势.美国正在从"局内人"变为"局外人",但仍将发...     

里海油气管道地缘政治经济博弈态势分析

里海盆地油气外运管网是大国地缘政治的焦点。里海周边国家的立场将取决于美国、俄罗斯、中国、欧盟等大国利益错综复杂的相互作用。大国通过博弈来争取自己的能源利益，但在里海法律地位没有完全确定的情况下，大国之间的博弈将更趋复杂化、政治化。     

组织间不信任与替代性武装力量：拉美国家废除军队的政治逻辑

军队是国家权力的关键指标,也是绝大多数主权国家不可或缺的有机构成,在国内政治与国际关系领域都发挥着重要作用。然而,世界上仍存在少数主动废除军队的国家。引人关注的是,这类案例大多集中在拉美地区。对于这些拉美国家为何废除军队,既有研究主要从小国视角和军政关系视角出发,认为国家规模与国家安全之关联性和去军事化改革是基本逻辑依据。然而对拉美具体案例而言,这些理论范式的解释性仍存在一定欠缺。考察哥斯达黎加和海地案例可知,组织间不信任与替代性武装力量强弱是拉美特定国家废除军队的基本政治逻辑;获得可信的武装力量支持是新政权得以巩固的必要条件。当新政府与既有军队之间出现组织间不信任时,新政府便倾向于谋求用其他武装力量来替代既有军队。同时,替代性武装力量的强弱影响着政府的替代决策。若不存在可信的替代性武装力量,或只存在弱替代性武装力量,那么废除军队并建立或扶植一些原先较弱的武装组织便成为拉美国家政府强化武装力量控制的常见选择。     

Uzbekistan＇s Views on Regional Security Situation in Central Asia

The development of geopolitical process especially in the last decade demonstrates that Central Asia has become one of the key Eurasian regions, and it has a major impact on the overall climate of the continental and global security.     

The Slovenian Armed Forces and Patriotism

Patriotism needs understanding as a positive feeling that in its narrowest sense determines the relationship towards one’s country as basic living space of family members and, at the same time, represents the foundation for a variety of actions by individuals. A high level of patriotism amongst members of a state’s security system who are consequently providers of national safety is to be expected, and the members of the armed forces have perhaps the highest level of patriotism. Since its beginnings in June 1991, the Slovenian Armed Forces have been going through various reform processes and transformations. These developments have included changes in staffing the armed forces and a simultaneous constant reduction of the defence budget, both of which undoubtedly affect the satisfaction of each service member about their attitude towards the motherland and the system to which the service belongs. This analysis offers the results of a study of the members of the Slovenian Armed Forces that, first, identifies the level of patriotism amongst those members and, second, establishes their attitudes towards patriotism.     

俄罗斯大力加强军队信息化建设

随着信息技术的飞速发展和计算机网络的普遍运用,争夺和保卫信息资源将成为未来保卫国家利益斗争的重点和焦点,信息战也就自然而然地会成为未来的一种基本战争样式,信息时代国家安全在很大程度上将系于能否打赢信息战.本文着重介绍和分析了俄罗斯军队对信息战的认识、重视;俄军在发展信息化方面所存在的问题以及俄军为加强军队信息化建设拟采取的措施和对策.对我军现代化建设也有一定的借鉴意义.     

俄罗斯与《欧洲常规武装力量条约》的侧翼问题

1990年11月北约和华约签署的《欧洲常规武装力量条约》设立了“侧翼区”,侧翼区国家部署在该区域内的武器装备要受到严格限制。俄罗斯欧洲的南北部分地区在侧翼区内。俄罗斯南部高加索地区受分裂势力严重影响,北约把武器装备部署在不是该条约缔约国的波罗的海三国,俄罗斯南北两个侧翼区都受到威胁和挑战。俄罗斯要求改变或取消侧翼机制,但北约只是部分满足了俄罗斯的要求。俄罗斯与北约国家在侧翼问题上存在很大矛盾。     

Into the Great Wide Open: The Transformation of the German Armed Forces After 1990

The German military has gone through fundamental changes since Reunification in 1990. Not only did its obvious enemy disappear, but the basis for what had been a partnership of convenience between German society and the Bundeswehr eroded. Since then, successive German governments have tried to find ways to transform strategic concepts, military structures, and international commitments to fit the new international relations and security challenges at the beginning of the twenty-first century. These transformation efforts have been affected both by cultural restraints and by economic ones. Instead of just following one new and simple strategic concept, the transformation of the Bundeswehr had to be oriented towards military structures that were politically and financially feasible. Despite the progress achieved on the operational level, Germany is still lacking a clear strategic concept for the use of force and the engagement of the Bundeswehr.     

Energy and Security in Long-Term Defence Planning: Scenario Analysis for the Swedish Armed Forces

Abstract

The competition for energy resources, as well as the closely related climate change problems, imply a number of global security consequences. A methodology to include energy aspects in long-term defence planning, based on broad civilian scenario approaches, is proposed. The study has been carried out by the Swedish Defence Research Agency, as commissioned by the Swedish Armed Forces, resulting in a number of future mission scenarios highlighting e.g. new challanges and tasks, as well as the need for new capabilities and equipment.     

土库曼斯坦民族宗教概况

土库曼斯坦共和国(The Republic of Turkmellistan，Pecпубпик Tуркменистан)是中亚西南部的一个内陆国，北接哈萨克斯坦，南邻伊朗、阿富汗，东界乌兹别克斯坦，西濒里海：地势平坦，平原多在海拔200米以下，境内有世界上最大的沙漠之一——卡拉库姆大沙漠，约占国土面积的80％，大部分为干旱草原，因此有一个流传至今的古老谚语说：“在真主分配土地时，土库曼人很不走运”。全国总面积48．81万平方公里，首都阿什哈巴德(Ashgabat，     

车臣非法武装

车臣非法武装是车臣分裂分子武装力量的统称,它已成为世界极端恐怖组织之一,近年来在莫斯科和格罗兹尼等地频繁绑架人质和制造恐怖爆炸事件。今年10月23日晚,车臣分裂分子又在莫斯科东南部轴承厂文化宫剧场劫持800多名观众为人质,致使120名俄罗斯人和8名外国人死亡,后果及手段令世人震惊。 一、车臣非法武装的演变史。车臣非法武装的前身,是根据1991年11月2—8日原车臣“总统”杜达耶夫的命令成立的车臣共和国武装部队。1991年12月24日车臣共和国《国防法》规定,凡年满18岁的车臣男性公民都有义务服兵役,19—26岁青年服现役。1992年2月17日杜达耶夫下达第29号令:车臣共和国公民凡自愿停止苏联部队的军旅生涯并愿在车臣共和国武装力量服役者,可官复原职,     

土库曼斯坦新总统别尔德穆罕默多夫

土库曼斯坦首任终身总统尼亚佐夫于2006年12月21日去世后,古尔班古雷·米亚利库利耶维奇·别尔德穆罕默多夫在国家安全委员会和议会--马日利斯的支持下,出任临时代总统和武装部队最高总司令.     

The Downside of Decentralization: Armed Clientelism in Colombia

In recent years, decentralization and regional autonomy measures have figured prominently in negotiations designed to end some of the world's most important conflicts, including in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Sudan. Reforms that shift powers to subnational units deserve the attention of those who are trying to promote security via institutional design, but the risks associated with these territorial reforms are considerable. When political and economic resources are transferred to subnational governments in the attempt to create meaningful access to the political system for former combatants, the great risk is that these same resources can be used to finance a continuation of the armed struggle instead. In response to the popularity of territorial reforms in many post-conflict settings, this paper sounds a cautionary note by evaluating the negative impact of decentralization on security in Colombia, site of Latin America's longest and deadliest armed conflict. After analyzing the design decisions of reformers who hoped that decentralization would help end the conflict, I argue that decentralization in fact financed the expansion of armed clientelism by illegal groups on both the left and right. Thanks to the weakness of the police in much of the national territory, guerrillas and paramilitaries have been able to use decentralized resources to destabilize the state, limiting even further its monopoly over the use of force and creating what are in effect parallel states on the left and right.