对当前网络与信息技术的发展及新工业革命的思考北大核心CSSCISSCI

刚刚过去的2017年,我们看到了以新一代网络与信息技术为代表的科技发展新动向。人类社会以蒸汽机技术为标志的第一次工业革命跨度大概是1785～1840年前后,走过了将近60年。以电力技术革命为标志的第二次工业革命跨度大约是1870～1970年,经历了大约100年。     

普力夺社会视角下的当代埃及军人干政

从1952年革命到近年来的埃及变局,军人一直在埃及政坛中发挥着关键性的作用。军人干政已成为埃及现代化进程中一个不容忽视的现象。究其根本,乃是埃及仍处于泛政治化的普力夺社会结构之中,从而为军人干政提供了合适的温床。本文旨在借助政治学中的"普力夺"(Praetorian)社会理论,对当代埃及不同时期中的军人干政现象做出原因解析及评价,并分析当前塞西政权破除埃及社会普力夺化过程中所面临的挑战。     

面向大众的埃及高教

埃及是非洲最早发展高等教育的国家，早在殖民入侵以前就已存在的爱资哈尔大学是世界上现存最古老的大学。1954年纳赛尔总统执政后，埃及开始建立现代教育制度，埃及高教也进入快速发展时期。目前埃及是非洲高教发达国家，其高等教育包括综合性大学和各自独立的高等学院等，面向大众化是埃及高教的一大特色。开罗大学是埃及规模最大的高等院校，在中东地区也享有盛誉。     

宪政民主下的埃及大选及其影响

举世瞩目的埃及大选尘埃落定。从历史角度看,20世纪是埃及宪政民主实践的重要历史时期。1952年以来,经过50多年的发展,埃及形成了富有特色的政治体制,实现了国家政治的稳定运行。最近十几年来,特别是伊拉克战争结束以来,美国出于改造中东的战略,直接施压,要求埃及进行政治改革,再加上美国“大中东倡议”的影响和埃及国内反对派的壮大,造成了埃及2005年宪法第七十六条修正案出台。修正案以及随后的埃及大选表明:埃及是成熟、自信的中东大国;埃及人民渴求政治稳定,并能处理好自己的事务;从短期看,大选的象征意义大于实际意义;但从长期看,它是埃及政治制度现代化新的里程碑,埃及政治民主化进程已是离弦之箭。     

泰国的金融资产阶级

引言近年来,特别是自1976年的流血政变以来,已发表了不少论述当代泰国社会阶级结构的论文。这些著作强调帝国主义国家(特别是美国)对泰国社会结构的形成所起的作用,这是无可非议的,但我觉得它们似乎低估了当地资产阶级的力量和独立性。我们发现这个阶级被描绘得有点象买办资产阶级,说他们缺乏作为一个独立实体所应有的意志     

新加坡教育的迅速发展及其原因

新加坡独立后,一方面致力于国民经济的建设和发展,另一方面也高度重视发展教育。在结合社会经济发展,加强人才培训,开发人力资源上取得了令世人瞩目的成就。本文拟就新加坡教育发展的情况及其发展原因作些粗浅的分析,探究其教育兴国之道。 一、教育发展历程 1、独立前的教育:又可分为殖民时期和二战后至独立时两个时期 (1)殖民时期。新加坡在二战之前曾是英国的殖民地。英殖民者向土著人提供基础教育,其目的仍是为殖民者自身利益服务的。当时,新加坡建立了两种不同类型的学校:一类是殖民政府建立     

苏丹民族国家建构失败的原因解析

苏丹民族国家建构失败的主要标志就是2011年的南北分立。究其原因,首先是苏丹长期封闭落后,缺乏统一的历史实践和民意基础。埃及人以掠夺为主要诉求的征服式治理给苏丹的南北交往留下了深刻仇恨和痛苦记忆。阿拉伯穆斯林精英们以埃及为观察世界的窗口,在独立后未能有效运转英国人留下的国家框架。苏丹政府在独立后未能借助福利或社会保障体系减缓政治和阶级冲突;由于全球化带来的时代特征转变,苏丹政府也无法借助对武装暴力的合法性垄断减缓社会冲突,苏丹最终在内外因素的共同作用下走向分裂。分立后的苏丹和南苏丹依然面临着民族国家建构的任务。     

新加坡、马来亚华人社会的阶级构成和社会地位变动(上)

一、阶级构成在探讨这个时期(1800—1911年)新、马华人社会的阶级构成以前,必须记住以下三点:第一,海外华人社会主要是一个移民社会;第二,就权力和权威而言,海外华人社会是一个下属社会;第三,海外华人社会是一个都市社会。因此,海外华人社会的性质决定了它的阶级构成。作为一个移民社会,其特征是:华人移民是一个不稳定的人口流动。许多移民把他们在海外的居留时间看作旅居而不想长期定居;他们之中挣够钱的人回国了;另外好些人却继续飘洋过海去碰运气。这种人口的波动模糊了阶级结构的轮廓。因此各种阶级的成员(特别是工人)经常变动他们的身份。由于海外华人社会是一     

阿拉伯国家联盟

阿拉伯国家联盟(League of Arab States,简称阿盟)成立于1945年3月22日,是当代国际社会中最早出现的区域性组织之一,总部设在埃及首都开罗。目前,阿盟已发展成为拥有22个成员国的地区性组织。现任秘书长是埃及人艾哈迈德·伊斯马特·阿卜杜拉·马吉德博士,1991年5月15日当选,1996年3月14日连任,任期5年。 阿盟成立的背景 首先,二战后民族解放运动蓬勃兴起,唤起了中东地区争取民族独立与解放的觉醒。二战后,反对殖民统治、争取民族独立的革命运动风起云涌,它以亚洲东部为发端,逐渐席卷整个亚洲,并带动了非洲和拉丁美洲,一大批民族国家相继宣布独立。     

菲律宾的“绿色革命”与农民——新怡诗夏省乡村调查

原文作者曾于1970年1月-2月(约1个月)、1974年3月(约两周)、1977年10月-1978年1月底(约三个月)对菲律宾吕宋岛中部地区新怡诗夏省基穆巴镇的圣·安多雷苏村作了三次实地调查,剖析菲律宾“绿色革命”对农民的影响。第一、二次的调查报告为:《吕宋岛中部地区的庄园—新怡诗夏省圣·安多雷苏村的典型调查》(见《亚洲经济》第十三卷第9、11号,即1972年9月号、11月号)、《吕宋岛中部地区的一个庄园村社》(亚洲经济研究所,1974年版)、《菲律宾军事戒严令下的土地改革对农民、农村社会的影响》(《亚洲经济》,第15卷第10号,即1974年10月号)。第三次的调查报告即本文,这份调查报告书主要涉及菲律宾“绿色革命”对农民的收入和生活状况的影响,对农民具有什么意义? “绿色革命”的主要受益者是谁?从这份调查报告书可以看出,“绿色革命”对促进菲律宾农业资本主义发展的影响,及其对菲律宾农村社会阶级结构变化的影响。     

Patterns of interdependence: Telecommunications in Western Europe

An examination of the telecommunications transactions of selected countries of the European Community (the Six) is undertaken to determine the existence and level of societal interdependence in Western Europe. Relying on data from 1952 to 1976, the author finds that the absolute level of telecommunications transactions has generally increased within the European Community (EC). The percentage share of the international transactions of the EC states which has remained within the EC, however, has come to a peak‐generally in the 1960's or early 1970's‐and subsequently declined. Thus, while the internal or regional interdependence of the EC has been generally increasing, its external or global interdependence has also been increasing, with the latter trend occurring recently at a faster rate.     

Democracy and the demographic transition

This article addresses the role of demographic factors in contributing to the emergence of democracy. It maintains that, other things being equal, progress in the demographic transition promotes democratization. The argument is developed with reference to the effects of interrelated changes in mortality, natural increase (i.e. population growth), fertility, and population age structure. Suggestions are also made with respect to how demographic and democratic trends should be gauged. An analysis of data for the period 1970–2005 for 77 countries that were initially non-democratic provides substantial support for the argument. Some implications are discussed, as are future trends in democratization from a demographer’s perspective.     

Foreign Policy Restructuring: Egypt's Disengagement from the Arab–Israeli Conflict Revisited

This article first examines the relative potency of explanations of Egypt's disengagement from the Arab–Israeli conflict that have stressed Sadat's beliefs, class interests or US influence, and it then makes the case for a state–society-centred explanation. Much is written about a diversionary internal–external linkage when a state threatened by internal unrest resorts to international aggression. This article makes the case for a preservative linkage between domestic tensions and accommodationist external behaviour. It identifies the fiscal crisis and societal challenges as key factors behind the policy shift and examines state utilisation of the policy shift to reduce domestic threats. Foreign policy provided the means for easing strained state–society relations by generating resources to alleviate societal crisis and limit the politically costly domestic taxation. Though this did not necessitate making a specific decision (e.g. the visit to Jerusalem), it tipped the scales towards a particular policy option, in this case disengaging from the external conflict rather than maintaining the status quo.     

Sovereignty and Human Rights: Re-examining Carter’s Foreign Policy Towards the Third World

This analysis examines the evolution of Jimmy Carter’s human rights policy towards the Third World during the course of his Administration. By exploring the impact of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and the Soviet-backed Vietnamese invasion of Cambodia, it analyses how Carter responded to international outcry by pairing sovereignty as a human right, which specifically appealed to the concerns of newly independent nations in the late 1970s. Carter’s shift is explained first by a brief outline of his initial human rights policy and stumbling blocks; second, by examining Third World responses to the dual invasions; and, finally, exploring how this affected Carter’s human rights policy. It moves beyond claims that Carter abandoned his human rights agenda as he encountered an increasingly volatile international environment, instead examining the very real ways that he re-imagined this policy in the face of a changing global landscape.     

Threats,opportunity, and force: Repression and diversion of domestic pressure, 1948–1982

This paper explores empirically how domestic political and economic challenges affect political leaders’ propensity to respond with the use of force at home and abroad. The foreign policy and world politics literatures are replete with references to leaders’ alleged use of external conflict when confronted with domestic challenges, but rarely consider domestic responses to dissent or the role of interstate threats. Comparative research on repression primarily focuses on linkages between domestic challenges and leaders’ resort to repressive policies, but ignores international alternatives. Neither literature considers the influence of external threats and opportunity structures on resort to use of force and coercion at home and abroad. Alternatively, we contend that foreign conflict and repression are complementary and potentially interchangeable policies that leaders may use to maintain political power in the face of domestic pressure. We hypothesize that the level of domestic political constraints conditions the opportunity and likelihood of selecting either repression or foreign conflict in response to domestic challenges. Since the ability to capitalize on external conflict involvement in all likelihood is not independent of international opportunity structures, we explicitly address differences in the availability of historical interstate animosity. We test our hypotheses on resort to repression and external dispute involvement on a global sample of political leaders for the period 1948–82. Our results indicate that repression and external conflict involvement appear to be largely independent and driven by different challenges: While there is some evidence that domestic conflict increases the likelihood of disputes and that external threat may promote repression, there is little support for the idea of direct substitution in kind since leaders frequently combine both dispute involvement and repression.     

EUGENE SCHUYLER,THE ONLY DIPLOMATIST

Eugene Schuyler (1840–1890), little known today, was America’s best-qualified diplomat, one of its first PhDs, and a friend of Tolstoy, translator of Turgenev, and biographer of Peter the Great. Schuyler spent a decade in Russia; his first book describes a nine-month trip through Central Asia which Russia was then subjugating. Schuyler’s subsequent reports from Bulgaria on Turkish atrocities helped to make Bulgaria the modern world’s first “fashionable cause.” Schuyler was American minister to Greece, Romania, and Serbia, but was refused confirmation as the State Department’s number two because of his frank criticism of a former secretary of state. He died after some months as diplomatic agent in Egypt.     

Razzia: A Turning Point in Modern Strategy

The razzia, a tactic of swift and brutal raids used by the French military against recalcitrant tribes in Algeria in the 1840s, was a necessary step in modern military thought. At first glance the destructive and violent razzias stand in stark contrast to the constructive and non-violent bureaux arabes—an institutional ancestor of Provincial Reconstruction Teams. But both were developed in the same conflict and by the same men. These two innovations, this article argues, were also flipsides of the same coin: what today is called war “among the people.” The razzia consequently appears as a necessary historic precursor for contemporary counterinsurgency doctrine.     

东亚国际劳工移民的流动特征及其动力机制——基于政治经济学的分析向度

20世纪70年代末80年代初，在日本雁行模式推动下，东亚地区内的贸易总量和投资规模不断增大，经济相互依赖性日益增强，由此带动了区域内国际移民劳工的流动。东亚国际移民劳工是指该地区内的劳工为了就业的需要从出生所在国或居住国迁往东亚地区的其他国家，从迁移时间看，既包括短期合同性移民劳工，又包括少数事实上的永久性国际移民劳工；     

The Construction of the China–ASEAN Free Trade Area: A Study of China's Active Involvement

The central argument of this paper is that China's economic diplomacy not only improves its political relations with ASEAN countries but also promotes regional economic co-operation and integration. This paper is organised into two parts. The first part starts with a review of Chinese foreign policy changes in order to show how Beijing adjusted its foreign policy to pursue its economic and political interests. It also examines China's political and institutional efforts to forge the coming Free Trade Area (FTA) with ASEAN. The second part studies China–ASEAN trade relations from three aspects: the adjustment of Chinese industrial structure, foreign direct investment to both sides and the formation of a production network with China at the centre. While difficulties and problems are unavoidable in the construction of CAFTA, with China's active efforts and the enhanced co-operation between China and ASEAN, the building of CAFTA is moving towards fulfilment.