Taking Deterrence Seriously: The Wide-Scope Deterrence Theory of Punishment

A deterrence theory of punishment holds that the institution of criminal punishment is morally justified because it serves to deter crime. Because the fear of external sanction is an important incentive in crime deterrence, the deterrence theory is often associated with the idea of severe, disproportionate punishment. An objection to this theory holds that hope of escape renders even the severest punishment inapt and irrelevant.

This article revisits the concept of deterrence and defend a more plausible deterrence theory of punishment—the wide-scope deterrence theory. The wide-scope theory holds that we must make the best use of all the deterrence tools available, including both external and internal sanctions. Drawing on insights from the early Confucian tradition, the article develops a deep deterrence theory, which holds that the most important deterrence tool involves internal, not external, sanction. It describes how internal sanctions deter potential offenses and why relevant policies need not conflict with liberalism’s respect for neutrality.     

Imminent Capture and Noncompliance: Probing Deterrence in Extreme Environments

Abstract

Understanding how deterrence operates under extreme conditions is both elusive and important. Studying suspect noncompliance in the form of flight during police-involved vehicle chases provides the opportunity to do this. These are crimes where the certainty of detection could not be higher, yet noncompliance is the end result and arguably comes because of the enhanced sanction risk rather than the obverse (deterrence) or in spite of it (defiance). Drawing from a qualitative sample of 25 auto thieves who have fled from the police, we explore their pre-chase perceptions, their motives for flight, and their decision-making processes during flight to probe the theoretical boundaries of perceptual deterrence. To this end, we pay particular attention to the mediating role of ambiguity aversion and belief updating in reconciling two seemingly inconsistent theoretical perspectives: risk framing and rational choice.     

HEURISTICS AND BIASES,RATIONAL CHOICE,AND SANCTION PERCEPTIONS*

The relevance of several cognitive heuristics and related biases for rational choice perspectives on crime, and for perceptions of sanction risk, were investigated. We present findings from a series of randomized experiments, embedded in two nationwide surveys of American adults (18 and older) in 2015 (N = 1,004 and 623). The results reveal that offender estimates of detection risk are less probabilistically precise and more situationally variable than under prevailing criminological perspectives, most notably, rational choice and Bayesian learning theories. This, in turn, allows various decision‐making heuristics—such as anchoring and availability—to influence and potentially bias the perceptual updating process.     

Re-Examining the Functional Form of the Certainty Effect in Deterrence Theory

In this paper we explore the functional form of the risk-certainty effect for deterrence. Using a sample of serious youth offenders, we first estimate a simple linear model of the relationship between the perceived certainty of punishment and self-reported offending. Consistent with previous literature we find evidence of a moderate deterrent effect. We then examined whether, consistent with a linear model, the effect of perceived risk is truly constant at different ranges of the risk continuum. Estimating a nonparametric regression model that makes no a priori assumption about the functional form of the model but allows the data itself to yield the appropriate functional form, we found marked departures from linearity. Our examination showed evidence of both a tipping effect, whereby perceived risk deters only when it reaches a certain threshold (between an estimated risk of .3 and .4) and a substantially accelerated deterrent effect for individuals at the high end of the risk continuum. Perceived sanction threats did, however, have a non-trivial deterrent effect within the mid-range of risk. The implications of our findings for both theory and additional research are discussed.     

“I'm calling my mom”: The meaning of family and kinship among homegirls

This paper explores the relationships and experiences of a group of young Latina women. The material is drawn from an ongoing comparative qualitative study of ethnic youth gangs in the San Francisco Bay area. The information collected highlights the female gang members' complex relationships with their families, with one another, and with male counterparts. By focusing on the elaborate networks of support and strong attachments that women form, we suggest a reexamination of the relationships between family and gang in the gang members' lives.     

Foot Patrol in Violent Crime Hot Spots: The Longitudinal Impact of Deterrence and Posttreatment Effects of Displacement

This study revisited the Philadelphia Foot Patrol Experiment and explored the longitudinal deterrent effects of foot patrol in violent crime hot spots using Sherman's (1990) concepts of initial and residual deterrence decay as a theoretical framework. It also explored whether the displacement uncovered during the initial evaluation decayed after the experiment ended. Multilevel growth curve models revealed that beats staffed for 22 weeks had a decaying deterrent effect during the course of the experiment, whereas those staffed for 12 weeks did not. None of the beats had residual deterrence effects relative to the control areas. The displacement uncovered had decayed during the 3 months after the experiment, and it is theoretically plausible that previously displaced offenders returned to the original target areas causing inverse displacement. These results are discussed in the context of Durlauf and Nagin's (2011) recent proposal that prison sentences should be shortened, mandatory minimum statutes repealed, and the cost savings generated by these policy changes shifted into policing budgets to convey more effectively the certainty of detection. It is concluded that if Durlauf and Nagin's proposal is to succeed, then more holistic policing strategies would likely be necessary. Foot patrol as a specific policing tactic seems to fit nicely into a variety of policing paradigms, and suggestions for incorporating them to move beyond strictly enforcement‐based responses are presented.     

The Moderating Effect of Criminal Thinking on Certainty of Apprehension in Decisions to Engage in Antisocial Behavior: Replication and Extension

This study explored whether the rational (certainty of punishment) and nonrational (criminal thinking) aspects of antisocial decision‐making interact. A convenience sample of 319 undergraduates (106 men, 213 women) completed a measure of criminal thinking and responded to three fictional vignettes (i.e., cheating on a final examination in a class they were in jeopardy of failing, stealing $50 off a table in a dorm room, and selling marijuana for a friend) at three different levels of risk or certainty of apprehension (50%, 10%, and 1%). Results indicated that participants reported that they would be more likely to engage in antisocial behavior when the certainty of getting caught was low and the level of proactive (P) or reactive (R) criminal thinking was high. An interaction between certainty and criminal thinking was also observed in which the gap between lower and higher criminal thinking respondents grew as the probability of getting caught fell.     

Experiences with Parental Aggression During Childhood and Self-Concept in Adulthood: The Importance of Subjective Perceptions

That individuals' realities are subjectively constructed is a basic, fundamental concept in psychology. However, past research examining child maltreatment in relation to psychological functioning has only investigated the frequency with which parental aggression occurs. Here, adults' perceptions of the abusiveness of their parents' aggressive behaviors during childhood were investigated as a predictor of current self-concept. Participants (N = 119) completed questionnaires assessing the extent to which they experienced parental aggression during childhood, their subjective perceptions of their parents' behaviors, and their current self-concept. Results indicated that how participants perceived their parents' aggressive behaviors was a more important predictor of self-concept than was the frequency with which those aggressive parental behaviors occurred. How individuals characterize their experiences with parental aggression should be taken into account when examining the psychological effects of aggressive parental behaviors.     

Ethical Fading: The Role of Self-Deception in Unethical Behavior

This paper examines the root of unethical dicisions by identifying the psychological forces that promote self-deception. Self-deception allows one to behave self-interestedly while, at the same time, falsely believing that one's moral principles were upheld. The end result of this internal con game is that the ethical aspects of the decision fade into the background, the moral implications obscured. In this paper we identify four enablers of self-deception, including language euphemisms, the slippery slope of decision-making, errors in perceptual causation, and constraints induced by representations of the self. We argue that current solutions to unethical behaviors in organizations, such as ethics training, do not consider the important role of these enablers and hence will be constrained in their potential, producing only limited effectiveness. Amendments to these solutions, which do consider the powerful role of self-deception in unethical decisions, are offered.     

The theory of planned behavior and policing: how attitudes about behavior,subjective norms,and perceived behavioral control affect the discretionary enforcement decisions of police officers

This research used qualitative methods to investigate police officer decision-making processes within the context of the theory of planned behavior from the discipline of psychology. Interviews with police officers were conducted to elicit how the constructs of attitudes about enforcement behaviors, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control manifest themselves in a policing context and how they affect the enforcement decisions that police officers ultimately make. The results indicated that officer attitudes about enforcement behaviors impact the decisions officers make with the caution that the impact of these attitudes varies across varying situational contexts. In terms of subjective norms, officers were primarily concerned with supervisor expectations more than the expectations of coworkers or the community in general. Officer decisions are also impacted by perceived limits on their discretion with these perceived limits being largely conditioned by offense seriousness. Theoretical implications of the findings and directions for future research are discussed.     

Intimate Partner Violence: The Role of Suspect Gender in Prosecutorial Decision‐Making

Utilizing a sample of 8,461 cases involving heterosexual intimate partner violence, this paper examines the role of suspect gender in prosecutorial decision‐making. Four decision points are assessed: the decision to file charges (versus rejection for insufficient evidence); to file as a felony (versus a misdemeanor or probation violation); to dismiss for insufficient evidence (versus full prosecution); and to reduce felony charges to a misdemeanor or violation of probation. Suspect gender was found to be statistically significant in relation to all four outcomes in favoring female over male suspects. Numerous interaction effects were observed between gender and measures of prior arrest and offense severity in particular, suggesting that prosecutors distinguish between male and female suspects across these variables. We suggest that these data provide some support for recent qualitative research suggesting that court personnel are responsive to the gendered asymmetry of intimate partner violence, and may view female intimate violence perpetrators more as victims than offenders.     

The Power of Contextual Effects in Forensic Anthropology: A Study of Biasability in the Visual Interpretations of Trauma Analysis on Skeletal Remains

The potential for contextual information to bias assessments in the forensic sciences has been demonstrated, in several forensic disiplines. In this paper, biasability potential within forensic anthropology was examined by analyzing the effects of external manipulations on judgments and decision‐making in visual trauma assessment. Three separate websites were created containing fourteen identical images. Participants were randomly assigned to one website. Each website provided different contextual information, to assess variation of interpretation of the same images between contexts. The results indicated a higher scoring of trauma identification responses for the Mass grave context. Furthermore, a significant biasing effect was detected in the interpretation of four images. Less experienced participants were more likely to indicate presence of trauma. This research demonstrates bias impact in forensic anthropological trauma assessments and highlights the importance of recognizing and limiting cognitive vulnerabilities that forensic anthropologists might bring to the analysis.     

The impact of human-technology cooperation and distributed cognition in forensic science: biasing effects of AFIS contextual information on human experts

Experts play a critical role in forensic decision making, even when cognition is offloaded and distributed between human and machine. In this paper, we investigated the impact of using Automated Fingerprint Identification Systems (AFIS) on human decision makers. We provided 3680 AFIS lists (a total of 55,200 comparisons) to 23 latent fingerprint examiners as part of their normal casework. We manipulated the position of the matching print in the AFIS list. The data showed that latent fingerprint examiners were affected by the position of the matching print in terms of false exclusions and false inconclusives. Furthermore, the data showed that false identification errors were more likely at the top of the list and that such errors occurred even when the correct match was present further down the list. These effects need to be studied and considered carefully, so as to optimize human decision making when using technologies such as AFIS.