Assessing Stability and Change in Criminal Offending: A Comparison of Random Effects, Semiparametric, and Fixed Effects Modeling Strategies

An important theoretical problem for criminologists is an explanation forthe robust positive correlation between prior and future criminaloffending. Nagin and Paternoster (1991) have suggested that the correlationcould be due to time-stable population differences in the underlyingproneness to commit crimes (population heterogeneity) and/or thecriminogenic effect that crime has on social bonds, conventionalattachments, and the like (state dependence). Because of data andmeasurement limitations, the disentangling of population heterogeneityand state dependence requires that researchers control for unmeasuredpersistent heterogeneity. Frequently, random effects probit models havebeen employed, which, while user-friendly, make a strong parametricassumption that the unobserved heterogeneity in the population follows anormal distribution. Although semiparametric alternatives to the randomeffects probit model have recently appeared in the literature to avoid thisproblem, in this paper we return to reconsider the fully parametric model. Viasimulation evidence, we first show that the random effects probit modelproduces biased estimates as the departure of heterogeneity from normalitybecomes more substantial. Using the 1958 Philadelphia cohort data, we thencompare the results from a random effects probit model with a semiparametricprobit model and a fixed effects logit model that makes no assumptions aboutthe distribution of unobserved heterogeneity. We found that with this dataset all three models converged on the same substantive result—evenafter controlling for unobserved persistent heterogeneity, with models thattreat the unobserved heterogeneity very differently, prior conduct had apronounced effect on subsequent offending. These results are inconsistentwith a model that attributes all of the positive correlation between priorand future offending to differences in criminal propensity. Sinceresearchers will often be completely blind with respect to the tenabilityof the normality assumption, we conclude that different estimationstrategies should be brought to bear on the data.     

Still Paying for the Past: Examining Gender Differences in Employment Among Individuals with a Criminal Record

Although many studies have examined employment outcomes of those with criminal convictions, no study to date has examined gender differences in employment outcomes of individuals with criminal convictions using a nationally representative sample of individuals from the United States. In this study, we use data from the 1997 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth to examine differences in employment after a criminal conviction for females and males. Results reveal that for women with a conviction, a drug offense and having dependent children limit the number of weeks of employment. For males, race, education, age at first conviction, and a subsequent conviction predict the number of weeks employed. Implications for policy and future research are discussed.     

A Criminal Career Study of the Continuity and Discontinuity of Sex Offending during the Adolescence-Adulthood Transition: A Prospective Longitudinal Study of Incarcerated Youth

Longitudinal research has seriously challenged assumptions that juvenile sex offenders (JSO) are characterized by high level of dangerousness, mental health problems, and crime specialization in sex offenses. The current study examines the longitudinal pattern of offending among a sample of JSO and a sample of juvenile nonsex offenders. The research design includes longitudinal data over a nine-year period allowing the examination of offending patterns and the crime mix from age 12 to age 23. The findings highlight that, while JSO are prone to persist offending in adulthood, there is limited continuity of sex offending. Further, the findings stress the importance of taking into account nonsexual juvenile delinquency, more specifically, youth violence, to make a better assessment of early adult offending outcomes of JSO.     

The Impact of Gender Identity on Female Offending: A Quantitative Assessment Using the BSRI

Despite considerable research showing the importance of masculinity in male offending, the role of gender identity in female offending remains unclear. The current study explores the impact of gender identity on female offending among a sample of 843 college women using the Bem Sex Role Inventory and Multiple Problem Behavior Index. The impact of gender identity on rates of general deviance, as well as behaviors typically in high male and female participation, aggression and self-harming, respectively, were examined. Results found that women with masculine identity were more likely to engage in aggression as well as general deviance broadly. Gender identity was not found to impact rates of self-harming.     

Violence and Gangs: Gender Differences in Perceptions and Behavior

Most research on violence has focused on males, but recent studies indicatethat females are also involved in violent crimes. Few studies, to date,have examined whether different or similar models explain male and femaleinvolvement in violent behavior. In the current research, we examine therelative contribution of social bond, self-control and social learningconcepts to the explanation of male and female violent offending. We alsoexplore the unique contribution of gang membership, school environment andprior victimization to these explanatory models. Using a multisite sampleof eighth-grade students, we find that results of a Chow test indicate theneed for separate theoretical models. Despite some similarities, differentfactors account for male and female rates of violent behavior.     

Gender Differences in Delinquency and Situational Action Theory: A Partial Test

This paper investigates to what extent a recent perspective in criminology, Situational Action Theory, is valid for both males and females and to what extent elements from the theory explain gender differences in delinquency. Data are used from the first (N?=?843) and second (N?=?616) wave of the Study of Peers, Activities, and Neighborhoods, which included detailed data about core elements of Situational Action Theory (morality, self-control, unsupervised peer activity and peer deviancy), proposed indirect causes (bonds with parents and school, parental monitoring) and self-reported delinquency. Cross-sectional and lagged Tobit regression analyses show that the core relations with delinquency are not significantly different between boys and girls and that the elements of Situational Action Theory are able to explain gender differences in delinquency for a substantial part. However, there is still a remaining independent effect of gender on current and lagged delinquency.     

性的差别与平等:女性主义语境下的妇女权利发展模式

对男权社会的基础进行颠覆从而实现两性之间的平等是妇女权利保障的前提性条件,同时这也是女性主义运动的总体目标。纵观当今世界的女性主义运动和理论,主要有五种女性主义理论对妇女权利的发展起到了至关重要的作用。在不同的理论下,妇女权利也呈现出不同的样态,这些理论与实践对当下中国的女权主义理论和实践具有重要的借鉴意义。     

Micro-models of criminal careers: A synthesis of the criminal careers and life course approaches via semiparametric mixed poisson regression models,with empirical applications

Much recent research and debate in criminology have centered around how to conceptualize and model longitudinal sequences of delinquent and criminal acts committed by individuals. Two approaches dominate this controversy. One originates in thecriminal careers paradigm, which emphasizes a potentialheterogeneity of offending groups in the general population—thus leading to a distinction between incidence and prevalence of criminal offending, a focus on the onset, persistence, and desistence of criminal careers, and the possibility that criminals are a distinctive group with constant high rates of offending. Another approach places criminal events within a broader context ofstudies of the life course by explicitly substituting the conceptualization of “social events” for that of “criminal careers”. With respect to analytical models, this approach emphasizes a potentialheterogeneity of offenders with respect to order of criminal events from first to second to higher orders and thus suggests an analysis of the “risks” or “hazards” of offending by order of offense. Some extant commentaries on the criminal careers and life course approaches to conceptualizing and modeling longitudinal sequences of delinquent and criminal events committed by individuals have emphasized their differences and incompatibilities. In contrast, we apply recently developed semiparametric mixed Poisson regression techniques to develop conditions under which the two conceptual/modeling approaches are formally equivalent. We also modify the semiparametric mixed Poisson regression model of criminal careers to incorporate information on order of the delinquent/criminal event and develop an empirical application. This modification demonstrates the complementarity of the criminal careers and life course approaches, even though they have somewhat different foci.     

Gray Matters: Gender Differences in the Physical and Mental Health of Older Inmates

Although there has been a substantial increase in the number of older female inmates incarcerated in the United States, there has been little scholarly attention paid to this population. The purpose of this study is to extend the current understanding of older inmates by examining gender differences in their physical and mental health. Bivariate analyses of one of the largest known samples of older female inmates (n = 142) revealed significant gender differences. Older female inmates reported a greater number of physical health conditions and mental health disorders in all three time periods: in their lifetimes, since admission to prison, and in the previous year. This research informs the need for gender-specific health programming for older female inmates.     

Timing of Change in Criminal Offending Around Entrance into Parenthood: Gender and Cross-Country Comparisons for At-Risk Individuals

Objectives

This article examines the timing of change in criminal offending relative to entrance into parenthood, in light of four competing theoretical frameworks (social control, routine activities, strain and cognitive transformation). Moreover, it analyzes whether criminal developments over time are gender- or country-specific.

Methods

Using samples of men and women at risk of offending in the Netherlands and Norway, this study investigates monthly changes in offending probabilities around the time of first birth (5 years before, 5 years after). The implemented smoothing splines technique allowed for a flexible exploration of changes in offending probabilities for both pre-childbirth and post-childbirth periods.

Results

The results show that the probabilities to offend decline ahead of childbirth for all individuals analyzed. The post-childbirth period is characterized by increases in offending probabilities. However, in these overall trends, the exact timing and magnitude of change differs by gender and country of residence.

Conclusions

The results offer partial support for the cognitive transformation hypothesis because offending rates decline before childbirth. The post-childbirth period converges with assumptions of the strain theory (for males in particular) because offending probabilities increase in this period. Additional analysis investigating changes in property offending shows that economic strain does not explain the upward trend of the overall offending after childbirth.

     

Methods of Choice in Completed Suicides: Gender Differences and Review of Literature

Abstract:  Suicide is an important public health hazard worldwide. A 4-year retrospective study from January 2000 to December 2003 was conducted to identify the favored methods in realized suicides among males and females in the west coastal region of India. During the study period, a total of 539 cases of suicidal deaths were autopsied. Males were predominantly affected (male: female—1.9:1). The age of the victims ranged from 13 to 90 years in males (mean = 40.1 years, median = 37.0 years) and 15 to 85 years in females (mean = 36.6 years, median = 32.0 years). Most favored method of suicide amongst males and females was hanging (36.9%, n  = 199) followed by poisoning (34.7%, n  = 187). Male dominance was apparent for each method of suicide except for self-immolation. Males were relatively more likely to use hanging and poisoning while females were more likely to prefer drowning and self-immolation as methods of suicide. Relatively younger females (mean   = 33.0 years, median = 32.0 years) preferred hanging as a method of suicide when compared to males (mean = 42.4 years, median = 40.0 years). Among females, significantly younger females resorted to hanging when compared to older females who preferred drowning. On investigating the various theories proposed for choice of suicide methods in males and females in different regions we conclude that preference of method of suicide in men and women is complexly determined. In this region, availability, accessibility, popularity, and socioacceptability seem to be the major determinants in the choice of methods among males and females rather than violence associated and lethality of the method. Females were as likely to use lethal and violent methods as males in this region.     

Gender Differences in Worry About a Terrorist Attack: A Cross-National Examination of Individual- and National-Level Factors

Prior research has found gender to be associated with worry about crime and terrorism. We used World Values Survey data to assess gender differences in worry about terrorism across 54 nations. Analyses also examined the influence of individual- and national-level factors. Women were significantly more worried about terrorism in 22 of the 54 nations. Men in Iraq, Libya, Yemen, and New Zealand were significantly more worried about terrorism than women. Individuals were more likely to worry about terrorism as the nation’s average mortality count in terrorist incidents increased. Policy implications and directions for future research are discussed.     

The Relationship Between Adolescent Physical Abuse and Criminal Offending: Support for an Enduring and Generalized Cycle of Violence

Prospective investigations have demonstrated support for the cycle of violence theory. However, few studies have examined whether or not abuse occurring during adolescence increases the prevalence and frequency of criminal involvement, or explored the long-term consequences of such victimization. In addition, there has been little investigation of whether or not the effects of abuse vary depending on characteristics of the victim, such as sex, race/ethnicity, age, family structure or income. Using data from the National Youth Survey, this study demonstrates that adolescent physical abuse has immediate and enduring effects on the prevalence and frequency of a variety of self-reported offenses, including violent and non-violent crimes, drug use and intimate partner violence. Furthermore, the study reveals that while victimization increases the prevalence of offending for victims of varying backgrounds, the frequency of offending is moderated by family income, area of residence, and family structure. Implications for prevention are discussed.     

Significant Gender Differences in Factors Related to the Detention of Youthful Offenders

An important priority of the U.S. juvenile justice system is to reduce the number of youthful offenders who are placed into secure detention placement. Though significant research examining these predictors exists, there is limited analysis of gender-specific predictors. Using existing juvenile court and mental health assessment case records of 433 youthful offenders from two Midwestern U.S. counties, this study sought to identify separately for males and females the legal (including number of delinquency adjudications, age at first delinquency adjudication, number of court offenses, and type of offense) and extralegal (including demographic, maltreatment, mental health, and school-related disabilities) factors that impact recidivism to detention placement. Multivariate logistic regression analyses revealed that the predictors of recidivism leading to repeat secure detention placement were indeed different for males and females, although there were some shared predictors. For both genders, the number of court offenses and having a previous suicide attempt were significant predictors. In addition, for females, having a diagnosis of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder and a misdemeanor offense were protective against recidivism. For males, three other variables significantly predicted recidivism: age, race, and a conduct disorder diagnosis.     

Gender Differences in Strain,Negative Emotions,and Coping Behaviors: A General Strain Theory Approach

This paper empirically evaluates Broidy and Agnew’s propositions, in which they apply general strain theory to explain gender differences in crime and deviance, by analyzing data from a national survey of adult African Americans. First, African American women were more likely to report strains related to physical health, interpersonal relations, gender roles in the family, and less likely to mention work‐related, racial as well as job strain than African American men. Second, African American women were less likely than African American men to turn to deviant coping strategies when they experienced strain partly because their strains were more likely to generate self‐directed emotions, such as depression and anxiety, which in turn were less likely to lead to deviant coping behaviors than other‐directed, angry emotion. Finally, it was found that the self‐directed emotions were more likely to result in nondeviant, legitimate coping behaviors than other‐directed emotion, anger.     

The Good and Bad of Social Change: Ambivalence Toward Activist Groups

Inherent to any substantive social change is the disruption of the status quo. To the extent that individuals are motivated to preserve the current social system (e.g., Jost & Banaji, British Journal of Social Psychology, 33, 1–27, 1994), even social change in pursuit of positive goals might evoke ambivalent reactions. Although activist groups might elicit positivity because they are assumed to have positive qualities and they seek positive goals, they might evoke negativity because their actions disrupt the current social system. These experiments examined two different forms of disruption of the status quo. In Experiment 1, a group gaining power elicited greater ambivalence than a group losing power, regardless of the valence of the group’s goal. Importantly, the conditions that evoked ambivalence did not inhibit behavioral support. Experiment 2 found that a new group elicited more ambivalence than an established group when pursuing a positive goal. Consistent with theories emphasizing maintenance of the status quo, these findings demonstrate that attitudes toward activist groups do not derive solely from self-interest.

Sentencing Recommendations by Probation Officers and Judges: An Examination of Adult Offenders Across Gender

Connecting the courtroom workgroup model with attributions and stereotyping based on the focal concerns perspective and gender sentencing literature, the present study investigates the extent to which probation officer recommendations influence judicial sentencing, and whether the gender of the offender further conditions this relationship. Results from logistic and ordinary least squares regression indicate that there is concordance between probation officer recommendations and sentencing by judges. Offender gender has both direct and indirect effects on judicial sentencing through its relationship with probation officer recommendations, and Black males tend to receive lengthier sentences than other race/gender counterparts. These findings provide evidence that probation officer recommendations are an important part of the sentencing process and offer additional insight on how extralegal factors such as gender and race impact criminal justice decision making.     

Testing the Universality of the Gender Equality–Peace Thesis: The Influence of Increased Gender Equality on Terrorism in Turkey

Gender inequality has been empirically linked to the incidence of terrorism, as a motivator for women’s involvement in terrorism, and political and social violence more generally. Although these studies demonstrate that advances in gender equality on average decrease terrorism, it is unclear how these influences translate to individual nations or conflicts. Because Turkey has witnessed consistent but unequal regional advances in gender equality, it provides an ideal setting to examine how these developments have influenced terrorist violence. Analyzing data from Turkey’s 81 provinces from 2000–2013, this study finds important regional differences in the influence of gender equality on terrorism.     

Partner Assaultive Men and the Stages and Processes of Change

Researchers have recently suggested that the Transtheoretical Model of behavior change (TTM; Prochaska, J. O. DiClemente, C. C., and Norcross, J. C., 1992, Am. Psychol. 47: 1102–1114) might help in understanding the mechanisms through which partner assaultive men attempt to change their abusive behavior. In the present study, we present data from 2 psychometrically sound scales designed to assess the stages and processes of change in a cross-sectional sample of 250 men attending 2 batterer's intervention and prevention programs: the University of Rhode Island Change Assessment Scale for Domestic Violence (URICA-DV; Levesque, D. A., Gelles, R. J., and Velicer, W. F., 2000, Cog. Therapy Res. 24: 175–200), which assesses movement through the stages of change, and the Processes of Change Scale (POC), developed by the authors to assess self-reported usage of behavior change processes. Cross-validated cluster analyses indicated a three-cluster solution based upon URICA-DV scores: Immotive, Unprepared Action, and Preparticipation. Results indicated that individuals in more advanced stages of change reported using more behavior change processes, although this did not appear to result from being in treatment for a longer period of time. These data are interpreted in light of recent data indicating relatively small effect sizes for batterer's treatment programs and how assessment of the stages and processes of change might assist in matching men to different levels of treatment.