中东动荡及其对世界政治的影响

2010年底起于突尼斯、2011年以来迅速扩散的北非、中东动荡引起了世界广泛关注,其发生的根源、发展趋势及其影响、对中国的启示及中国的应对也是目前我国政界、学界集中探讨的热点问题。当前中东变局的深层根源是什么?骨牌效应会扩散到哪里?会不会改变中东政治力量对比甚至重塑中东战略格局?会不会影响全球战略态势?中东变局对中国的经济影响与战略影响如何?中国从中东变局的发生根源及其影响中可得到些什么启示?围绕这些问题,中国现代国际关系研究院《现代国际关系》杂志社于2011年3月10日举办了题为当前北非、中东变局及其影响的学术研讨会,来自北京大学、清华大学、中国人民大学、中共中央党校、国防大学、北京航空航天大学、北京外国语大学、南开大学、中国社会科学院及中国现代国际关系研究院的20多位专家学者与会。他们从不同角度就上述问题展开了热烈而深入的探讨。现将部分与会专家学者的主要观点辑录如下,以飨读者。     

Identifying Rivals and Rivalries in World Politics

Instead of assuming that all actors are equally likely to clash, and that they do so independently of previous clashes, rivalry analysis can focus on the small number of feuding dyads that cause much of the trouble in the international system. But the value added of this approach will hinge in part on how rivalries are identified. Rivalry dyads are usually identified by satisfying thresholds in the frequency of militarized disputes occurring within some prespecified interval of time. But this approach implies a number of analytical problems including the possibility that rivalry analyses are simply being restricted to a device for distinguishing between states that engage in frequent and infrequent conflict. An alternative approach defines rivalry as a perceptual categorizing process in which actors identify which states are sufficiently threatening competitors to qualify as enemies. A systematic approach to identifying these strategic rivalries is elaborated. The outcome, 174 rivalries in existence between 1816 and 1999 are named and compared to the rivalry identification lists produced by three dispute density approaches. The point of the comparison is not necessarily to assert the superiority of one approach over others as it is to highlight the very real costs and benefits associated with different operational assumptions. The question must also be raised whether all approaches are equally focused on what we customarily mean by rivalries. Moreover, in the absence of a consensus on basic concepts and measures, rivalry findings will be anything but additive even if the subfield continues to be monopolized by largely divergent dispute density approaches.     

Trends of Thought of World Politics in 2006

The year of 2006 had witnessed a dynamic picture in the trends of thought on the world political arena. Among them,some were quite eye-catching: the idea of building a harmonious world proposed by China had attracted broad attention; the U.S.     

The Question of Religion and World Politics

ABSTRACT

In this essay we introduce this special volume on the role of religion in world conflict. We develop a common definition of religion which focuses on five ways religion can influence society and politics: (1) as a basis for identify; (2) as a belief system that influences behavior; (3) through formal religious doctrines; (4) as a source of legitimacy; and (5) through its religious institutions. We discuss why the issue of religion has in the past received little attention from social scientists. Finally, we develop a set of common questions which the other authors in this volume address. These questions are designed to create a better understanding of the role religion plays in world conflict as well as how international relations theory can help us understand this role.     

国际政治经济形势正在经历巨变

2008北京奥运的完美落幕进一步突出了中国改革开放以来的发展成就,标志着中国的国力、国势、国运进入新的上升轨道,中国与世界的关系再度成为国际热点话题。中国的发展、崛起将引起国际格局、国际体系发生什么样的变化?在变化中的世界,尤其是在中国发展本身就构成国际变局重要组成部分、国际上"中国威胁论"及"中国责任论"等此起彼伏的情况下,中国又面临着什么样的新任务、需要确立怎样的国家大战略、做出何种新的战略选择?要不要居安思危,继续坚持韬光养晦?对这些问题,不仅精英层在严肃思考,普通民众也极为关切。鉴此,《现代国际关系》杂志社2008年8月31日以"‘奥运后时代’中国与世界的关系"为题举办研讨会,邀请京津两地20多位相关领域专家、学者就上述问题展开深入讨论。现将会议主要观点辑录如下,以飨读者。     

伊战凸显国际形势变化中的宗教因素

自2003年3月23日美国发动伊拉克战争迄今已历四年。四年来,美国软硬实力、内政外交因为这场战争而发生了什么样的变化?国际战略形势又随之出现了哪些变迁?对中国而言,加速发展的战略机遇期是否还将持续?伊拉克战争本身又带来哪些启示?围绕这些问题,《现代国际关系》编辑部举办了“伊拉克战争四周年国际战略形势”专题研讨会,邀请一些知名国际问题专家进行了深入探讨。现将与会专家学者的主要观点辑录刊发,以期对读者更好地理解和把握这些问题有所裨益。     

地缘重心与世界政治的支点

10 0年前地缘政治的概念被正式提出并形成相对系统的理论。传统地缘政治理论强调国家的权力增长与空间扩张的关系、海权与陆权的对抗。随着冷战的结束和全球化的发展 ,尽管这种支撑强权政治的理论仍对一些国家的战略选择产生影响 ,但它对现实国际政治的解释越来越显现出局限性。文章尝试着从一个新的地缘政治视角 :“地缘重心论” ,来分析现实国际关系 ,强调地缘重心国是区域一体化的引擎 ,是世界政治的支点。同时认为可以从地缘重心的角度分析当前国际关系地缘板块结构中发生国际冲突的脉络。文章主张各个地缘重心国之间应该在相互尊重的基础上进行协调与合作 ,建构一个稳定的世界秩序 ,维持人类的长久和平与繁荣     

A New Dynamism in World Politics: Increasingly Skillful Individuals?

Our inquiry is the first phase of a project designed to explore systematically whether individuals are becoming more equipped to play a central role in world affairs. It hypothesizes that individuals have undergone a skill revolution, leading them to be more analytically competent, emotionally capable, and politically effective in assessing events, developing alternatives, and executing effective political action. The first phase is confined to the skills of elites: we tested the predicted generational changes by analyzing the skills of three types of individuals—elected officials in the U.S. Congress, witnesses at congressional hearings, and contributors to the daily press in three countries—in two widely separated epochs as they evaluated events across three issue areas—foreign affairs, international trade, and human rights. In doing so we randomly selected nearly one thousand paragraph-sized statements and coded them according to the methodology prescribed by the Integrative Complexity Coding Manual. All in all, our findings supported the hypothesis: the skill level of the sampled individuals was found to have increased over several generations by a statistically significant (P < .001) average greater than 10 percent. Each issue area also showed gains in the same direction between the two epochs and across all types of elites; and all of these results also met the 95 percent confidence level for statistical significance. Inasmuch as this finding does not negate the possibility of a long-term trend toward more capable publics, it points to the need for further research into the dynamics whereby world politics may become increasingly sensitive to demands at the micro level.     

The Impact of the Financial Crisis on World Politics

Major earth-changing events took place in the first decade of the 21st century. First,the 9/11 terrorist attacks created shockwaves in the realm of international security. But the global financial crisis had even greater repercussions than 9/11. Policy makers and strategists should closely follow the developments and ramifications of this crisis.     

币权:世界政治的当代枢纽

币权是通过控制金融资本去影响世界经济体系运行和利益分配的权力,币权的出现是当代世界政治体系发生重大变化的标志,由谁及如何控制币权是币缘政治的核心.导致此次金融危机的国际政治原因是美元币权缺少制衡.     

世界政治“平靖进程”的技术变迁支撑

二战后,世界政治经历了"平靖进程",具体体现为:"大国罕有战事""国家罕有消亡"。本文融合国际政治经济学与国际安全研究,展示二战后的技术变迁改变了大国的"意愿"与"能力",支撑了世界政治新变化。在马尔萨斯时代,由于技术水平低下,生存物资稀缺,生存保障匮乏,人类面临持续的安全难题。二战后,技术发展影响了当代大国的"意愿"与"能力",让世界政治呈现新变化。技术变迁给大国提供了更为丰富的选择,让大国使用武力征服的意愿降低;同时,随着技术变迁,尤其是在"核革命"后,大国确保自身安全的能力更强,使得"大国罕有战事"。得益于技术变迁,大国利益半径扩大,即便距离遥远地域的变化也与自身息息相关,大国保障遥远海外利益的意愿提升;同时,技术变迁扩大了大国的权力投射,让世界各国,尤其是大国保障体系稳定的能力更强,致使"国家罕见消亡"。随着技术变迁,世界政治已呈现出很多与传统智慧不同的方面,孕育国际交往的新理念。     

Human Migration and the Conceptualization of Pre–Modern World Politics

The debate regarding historical continuity and transformation of international systems within International Relations (IR) theory has turned to conceptualizing world politics in terms of civilizations, particularly with respect to analysis of the pre–modern era. The political consequences of human migration have been overlooked in this debate. Migration shaped the demographic, social, and political dynamics within pre–modern civilizations and migration was a major medium of interaction between civilizations and their external environments, including other civilizations. This argument is elaborated in case studies of ancient Greece and Rome. Migration played a critical role in the development, relative power, and interaction of Greek city–states as well as the transformation of Athens into a polyethnic empire. Migration was central to the rise and decline of the Roman Empire, as particularly highlighted in the development of Roman citizenship, its role in the political incorporation of non–Romans, and the bearing of this process on the relationship between the Roman Empire and its environment.     

国际政治长周期与体系进化--莫德尔斯基长周期理论再解读

20世纪80年代,美国著名国际政治学家乔治·莫德尔斯基创立了国际政治长周期理论,之后便引起了学术界的广泛关注.文章认为,莫氏长周期理论为我们提供了一个以各个领导国的兴衰和全球战争为关注重点的周期模式,同时也揭示了一个以领导国的革新因素和国际体系的结构性变革为中心的进化模式,此两者并行不悖、相互作用.在长周期框架中,主要表现为大国力量消长的结构性危机构成了威胁各个体系稳定的全球问题,正是全球问题的存在为国际体系的进化变革提供了依据和动力,而历史上解决全球问题,实现体系进化的主要机制便是全球战争.这是一个螺旋向上的进化过程.由此,理论分析和历史沿革表明体系进化是长周期理论中的另一重要体现.     

二战前英属马来亚印度劳工的政治生活简析

从20世纪初开始,马来亚印度人的民族主义逐渐兴起,一方面表现在印度人希望获得马来亚的公民权,但更多地体现在印度劳工希望殖民统治者给予他们公平、合理的待遇。然而,印度人温和合理的政治诉求遭到殖民当局的拒绝,因此他们采取了更为激进的罢工。罢工的失败促使印度人争取祖国印度独立自由的民族主义情绪的高涨,进而在日据时期掀起了一场较有声势的独立运动。日据时期的马来亚印度人的独立运动是一场无果而终的民族解放运动,也是一场失败的民族主义运动,但这场独立运动具有一定的正义性。     

伊朗革命主义外交——理解第三世界政治的一种路径

美国发动的反恐战争意外地改善了伊朗的地缘政治环境。值得关注的是,伊朗正日益走上一条革命性崛起道路。这种外交选择很大程度上是对其作为第三世界国家所临不确定的安全环境、国家发展边缘化乃至意识形态真空状态的一种总体性回应。从长远看,这种发展道路面临国际风险太大、目标选择难等诸多问题,伊朗未来的崛起因此充满了不确定性。     

亚非复兴进程与世界地缘政治演变

当代亚非复兴进程,其实质是近代以来亚非地区各民族追求独立与复兴进程的历史延续,是亚非发展中国家希望实现国际体系更为平等、公正发展,实现西方国家与其他国家平等交往的当代发展.中国和非洲同时开启复兴进程,并在这一进程中加强团结与合作,成为新世纪国际政治领域的重大事件,由此导致世界地缘政治出现结构性变化的新趋向,其历史意义与影响已开始逐步显现.中国、非洲和西方国家应以全新的思维、政策和方式寻求跨区域的多边合作,以共同推动非洲的和平与发展乃至更具广泛意义的全球性问题的解决.国际关系研究也应从观念、理论和政策等多个层面来积极回应当前世界地缘结构的变迁趋向.