Training on a Battlefield: Iraq as a Training Ground for Global Jihadis

This article aims to describe and analyze the training that foreign jihadis in Iraq have received, how this may impact on the future of the insurgency in Iraq, and the potential spillover effect from the Iraqi jihad scene. The nature of the training in Iraq has been influenced by the difficult conditions the jihadis were operating under, and much has consisted of on-the-job training inside safe houses. The foreign jihadis were dependent on the support of the local Iraqis in order to conduct training, but the increasing use of suicide attacks has turned their erstwhile allies against them.     

Considerations on the Cyber Domain as the New Worldwide Battlefield

The convergence of telecommunication and computer technologies that has evolved in the field of information and communication technologies (ICT) in the last two decades has had very important effects on new war technologies and the ongoing process of battlefield digitisation. The Stuxnet worm, uncovered in 2010 and responsible for the sabotaging of a uranium enrichment infrastructure in Iran, is a clear example of a digital weapon. The incident shows what is meant by cyber war and what the particular features of this new warfare dimension are compared to the conventional domains of land, sea, air and space, with relevance both at the operational and strategic levels. But cyberspace also extends to the semantic level, within the complimentary field of information warfare involving the content of messages flowing through the Internet for the purposes of propaganda, information, disinformation, consensus building, etc. The overall cyber warfare domain needs to be put into perspective internationally as many countries are developing strong cyber capabilities and an ‘arms race’ is already taking place, showing that these technologies can potentially be used to undermine international stability and security. What is needed is a public debate on the topic and its impact on global stability, and some kind of regulation or international agreement on this new warfare domain, including an approach involving confidence building measures (CBMs).     

Traumata on Screen: Cinematic Views from Southern Africa

ABSTRACT

This special themed issue of Communicatio explores the profound transformation of the political, cultural and intellectual contours of Africa from the vantage point of African film and grounded within the theoretical and epistemological discourses of trauma studies, memory studies, postcolonial studies, and decolonial studies. The contributors are particularly interested in exploring the relational flows between African cinematic works and the social and imaginary circumstances of their production, engagement and representation. Through an explication of the screen and viewing cultures from Africa, this themed issue wishes to make three contributions. The first is to the already established but on-going scholarly work of trauma studies, but specifically from an African, cinematic vantage point. The second contribution is to the theoretical body of work on African cinema (and in this context, “cinematic” includes both film/television). And the last contribution is to the emerging view that culture is a “two-way street,” to put it colloquially: a reversal of the dominant “Western” direction of culture, with an emphasis on different tones of social values and contexts, that have been marginalised in mainstream popular culture discourses.     

Development perspectives: Views from rural Lebanon

This paper explores development issues from the perspective of two villages in rural Lebanon. Educated male villagers see themselves as initiators of development and use the same language as NGO officials. Client-patron relationships and wasta (the act of accessing material favours, such as development projects, from the powerful) are means for these men to achieve their political ends. Women and the less powerful men, who are not part of the wasta network, tend to be disregarded in decision making, but nonetheless have strong views about the needs of the villages. The Islamic view emphasises the moral life.     

Views of China and Europe on the New Order of the World

The 7^th Sino-German Security Dialogue Seminar is focused on ＂China, Europe and a new world order＂. Our discussions should include the world order in general, as well as in-depth exchanges on specific issues in the area of international relations that both countries deem important. I want to get to the point directly by stating a basic point： although many factors in the international politics continue to change, as old challenges still exist and new challenges keep cropping up, there still remains a cornerstone for the world order, which is the Unites Nations. This is a starting point very close to the real politics： we must advance the international politics within current structure, and I would like to stress that such international politics must be international politics for peace.     

积极开创新时代民间外交工作新局面

一、民间外交的定位和历史贡献周恩来总理指出:“中国的外交是官方的、半官方的和民间的三者结合起来的外交。”习近平总书记强调:“民间外交是增进人民友谊、促进国家关系发展的基础性工作,是国家总体外交的重要组成部分。”可见,民间外交也是外交,也是国家行为,根本目的是为了推动中外民相亲、心相通。对外工作中,除了官方的、半官方的,其他包括友好城市、企业、智库、媒体、社会组织和青年、妇女等自然人等都属于民间外交范畴和主体。民间外交具有主体多、领域广、资源丰、接地气、打基础等主要特点。     

从私有化的角度看俄罗斯的转轨危机

在向市场经济转轨的过程中,俄罗斯经历了漫长的生产衰退过程.尽管转轨危机是个极其复杂的现象,难以用个别因素孤立地解释它的成因,但私有化无疑也在其中起了巨大的破坏作用.本文从私有化的角度探析俄罗斯转轨危机的原因,以求揭示过渡经济中微观改造模式对宏观经济运行的作用机制.     

Views on How to Break the Deadlock in the Sino-Japanese Relations

Inrecentyears,duetotheexistenceoftoomuchmisinterpretationandmisunderstandingaswellasthelackofknowingandunderstandingeachotherbetweenChinaandJapan,theSino-Japaneserela-tionshavebeenoutofbalancebybeing″economi-callyhotandpoliticallycold″andbyhaving″warmresponsefromthenongovernmentalcirclesandcoldreactionfromthegovernments″.Atthesametimetherehasbeenanunprecedentedcrisisofconfi-dencesincethenormalizationofdiplomaticrela-tionsbetweenthetwocountries.Inordertobreakthecurrentdeadlock,bothsideshav…     

Responses to Financial Crises: An Evolutionary Perspective

As the world currently faces the ever-deepening sub-prime crisis, we are reminded that the process of globalisation can cause significant disruptions in global markets and political systems. This article focuses on the evolution of financial crisis responses to gain a better understanding of the dynamics affecting current responses. By using a focused comparison of case studies it argues that the development of crisis response and the dominance of the current multilateral actors is a result of an evolutionary process. This process privileges learning and innovation within a complex political economic system. The crises of each era, born of many of the same problems, generate a variety of responding actors, a few of which are adopted. These actors help to address the immediate problems and even work well for a while. Eventually, they are overwhelmed by the tendency of financial interactions to grow. Another set of crises generates another round of actors and mechanisms. As time goes on, crisis response requires more formal institutions that can deal with more complex systems. The article concludes that response actors are becoming more public, multilateral and global in scope. Understanding this pattern of response should help to shed light on the potential for reform of the financial architecture and help to explain the dominance of multilateralism as a crisis response.     

对美国新政府亚洲政策的展望与建议--《美国在亚洲的角色:美国的视角》介评

2004年是美国大选年,这是美政界和学界为即将上台的新政府出谋划策的大好机会。他们纷纷著书立说,阐述美外交政策,以期影响下届政府的外交政策。美国亚洲基金会2004年底组织编写的《美国在亚洲的角色:美国的视角》①研究报告(以下简称《报告》)汇集了美一批亚洲问题资深专家向新政府的政策建言,对我们了解美国新一届政府的亚洲政策及对华政策,具有重要的参考价值。     

Battlefield Outcomes and Rebel Cohesion: Lessons From the Eritrean Independence War

This article uses data from the Eritrean war for independence to refine existing theories of rebel fragmentation. The author argues organizational performance affects the emergence of factional infighting within rebel organizations in unique and novel ways. While battlefield losses increase the likelihood of internal fragmentation, so do battlefield gains. The implication is battlefield stalemates possess unique properties that promote organizational cohesion in war, a relationship this study refers to as “cohesive stalemates.” The article extends an emerging literature on the internal politics of insurgent groups that has linked the coherence of rebel organizations to rebel losses.     

“中国移民问题”：来自中俄的不同观点

“中国移民问题”是后苏联时代俄罗斯各界讨论甚至炒作的热点问题，但中国官方人士并不认可这一“问题”在俄罗斯的存在。中俄双方应就与人口跨国流动有关的概念性问题加强了解和沟通，以便达成共识，从而能更加妥善地解决相关问题。     

The Puzzle of Personalist Performance: Iraqi Battlefield Effectiveness in the Iran-Iraq War

Saddam's Iraq has become a cliché in the study of military effectiveness—the quintessentially coup-proofed, personalist dictatorship, unable to generate fighting power commensurate with its resources. But evidence from the later years of the Iran-Iraq War actually suggests that the Iraqi military could be quite effective on the battlefield. What explains this puzzling instance of effectiveness, which existing theories predict should not have occurred? Recently declassified documents and new histories of the war show that the Iraqi improvements stemmed from changes in Saddam's perceptions of the threat environment, which resulted in significant shifts in his policies with respect to promotions, training, command arrangements, and information management in the military. Threat perceptions and related changes in these practices also help explain Iraq's return to ineffectiveness after the war, as evident in 1991 and 2003. These findings, conceived as a theory development exercise, suggest that arguments linking regime type and coup-ridden civil-military relations to military performance need to take into account the threat perceptions that drive autocratic leaders’ policies toward their militaries. After discussing how to define and measure battlefield effectiveness, the article reviews Saddam's changes and their effects; addresses alternative explanations for the improvement in Iraqi effectiveness; and explains how further research based on this initial exercise could generate a better understanding of the observed variation in states’ battlefield effectiveness, including variation within and across autocratic regimes.     

美国亚洲政策的"指南"--《美国在亚洲的角色:美国人的观点》评介

每逢总统大选 ,美国各大思想库便会开足马力 ,连续出台各种战略和政策建议报告 ,为新一届政府提供建言 ,期望对美国未来的内外政策施加各自的影响。对于 2 0 0 0年的跨世纪大选 ,各思想库更是高度重视 ,充分准备。其中 ,亚洲基金会 (ＡｓｉａＦｏｕｎｄａ ｔｉｏｎ)早在 1999年就已着手实施题为“美国在亚洲的角色”的研究项目 ,并于 2 0 0 1年 3月将《美国在亚洲的角色 :美国人的观点》和《美国在亚洲的角色 :亚洲人的观点》两大研究报告分别以书的形式正式出版。《美国在亚洲的角色 :美国人的观点》(Ａｍｅｒｉｃａ’ｓＲｏｌｅｉｎＡｓｉ…     

New Security Dynamics in the Asia-Pacific: Extending Regionalism from Southeast to Northeast Asia

This article explains the emerging security dynamics in the Asia-Pacific in the context of the project to establish an “Asian Community”. Although the model of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has been constrained by a post-colonial attachment to sovereignty, new processes of domestic democratisation, taking in new members and dealing with non-traditional security threats have led to an acceptance of the need to deepen its social and political pillars. The real test for this project, however, will be whether it can be extended to Northeast Asia, where relations between states are still characterised by traditional power-balancing and rising nationalism.     

对国际社会普遍关注的中亚几个问题的看法

本文简评国际社会普遍关注的中亚几个重要问题,包括政局是否稳定、金融危机的影响有多大、大国博弈中亚有何新情况、中亚国家关系如何、中国与中亚国家的关系等,时间跨度为2008年后期至2009年。文中还对目前国际社会流行的一些说法提出不同的看法。     

Mass media advertisements: Responses to selected advertisements in semi-urban Limpopo

Abstract

This article developed from pilot research in a coursework Master's module in African Languages into combined outcomes of persuasive messages and visual literacy based on semiotics. It tested assertions by various writers about mass media, as applicable to a semi-urban or rural group of (black) South Africans with educational levels ranging from Grade 10 to Honours level. Owing to the fact that interviewees are financially constrained (and therefore cannot always afford television access or the acquisition of magazines), the focus of ‘persuasive messages’ was on billboard advertising in their living and work contexts. It was found that the consumers (respondents to the questionnaire) reacted positively to billboards that supported products on which they have been relying; that once they have been introduced to a product and found it efficient, competitive campaigns do not impinge on their stance; but also that – in this particular semi-urban area – traditional values folklore and usages have to be taken into consideration by advertisers for effective communication.     

对2005年国际形势的一些看法

2005年的国际形势错综复杂。美日两国大选折射出其民众与世界各国人民观念上的反差;美国精于算计的对外政策得出事与愿违的结果;霸权主义的指挥棒失灵;布什主义不得不在策略上进行调整“;中国威胁论”和“中国机遇论”交锋激烈。