The Application of Missing Data Estimation Models to the Problem of Unknown Victim/Offender Relationships in Homicide Cases

Homicide cases suffer from substantial levels of missing data, a problem largely ignored by criminological researchers. The present research seeks to address this problem by imputing values for unknown victim/offender relationships using the EM algorithm. The analysis is carried out first using homicide data from the Los Angeles Police Department (1994-1998), and then compared with imputations using homicide data for Chicago (1991-1995), using a variety of predictor variables to assess the extent to which they influence the assignment of cases to the various relationship categories. The findings indicate that, contrary to popular belief, many of the unknown cases likely involve intimate partners, other family, and friends/acquaintances. However, they disproportionately involve strangers. Yet even after imputations, stranger homicides do not increase more than approximately 5%. The paper addresses the issue of whether data on victim/offender relationships can be considered missing at random (MAR), and the im-plications of the current findings for both existing and future research on homicide.     

Predicting Sex Offender Recidivism. I. Correcting for Item Overselection and Accuracy Overestimation in Scale Development. II. Sampling Error-Induced Attenuation of Predictive Validity Over Base Rate Information

The authors demonstrate a statistical bootstrapping method for obtaining unbiased item selection and predictive validity estimates from a scale development sample, using data (N = 256) of Epperson et al. [2003 Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool-Revised (MnSOST-R) technical paper: Development, validation, and recommended risk level cut scores. Retrieved November 18, 2006 from Iowa State University Department of Psychology web site: http://www.psychology.iastate.edu/ approximately dle/mnsost_download.htm] from which the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool-Revised (MnSOST-R) was developed. Validity (area under receiver operating characteristic curve) reported by Epperson et al. was .77 with 16 items selected. The present analysis yielded an asymptotically unbiased estimator AUC = .58. The present article also focused on the degree to which sampling error renders estimated cutting scores (appropriate to local [varying] recidivism base rates) nonoptimal, so that the long-run performance (measured by correct fraction, the total proportion of correct classifications) of these estimated cutting scores is poor, when they are applied to their parent populations (having assumed values for AUC and recidivism rate). This was investigated by Monte Carlo simulation over a range of AUC and recidivism rate values. Results indicate that, except for the AUC values higher than have ever been cross-validated, in combination with recidivism base rates severalfold higher than the literature average [Hanson and Morton-Bourgon, 2004, Predictors of sexual recidivism: An updated meta-analysis. (User report 2004-02.). Ottawa: Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness Canada], the user of an instrument similar in performance to the MnSOST-R cannot expect to achieve correct fraction performance notably in excess of what is achievable from knowing the population recidivism rate alone. The authors discuss the legal implications of their findings for procedural and substantive due process in relation to state sexually violent person commitment statutes and the Supreme Court's Kansas v. Hendricks decision regarding the constitutionality of such statutes.     

美国性犯罪者登记制度的实证研究及反思

对性犯罪者进行登记是美国等西方国家普遍采用的用于遏制性犯罪的做法。但不少研究表明,性犯罪立法在控制性犯罪和减少再逮捕率方面并没有起明显作用,相反,性犯罪者登记制度给相当一部分性犯罪分子带来了诸多负面影响。关于性犯罪者登记制度需要进一步的研究,研究内容包括性犯罪者登记法是否能够减少性犯罪行为,谁来对登记程序进行监管,该制度对性犯罪者及其家庭的影响,以及实施登记法律的成本。     

An Empirical Analysis of 30 Years of U.S. Juvenile and Adult Sexual Homicide Offender Data: Race and Age Differences in the Victim–Offender Relationship

Abstract: Little is known about the racial patterns of crimes committed by sexual homicide offenders (SHOs). This study examined race and age influences on victim–offender relationship for juvenile and adult SHOs. A large sample (N = 3868) from the Supplemental Homicide Reports (1976–2005) was used. Analyses of victim–offender patterns included examining victim age effects (child, adolescent, adult, and elderly). The findings revealed several race‐ and age‐based differences. Black offenders were significantly overrepresented in the SHO population. This finding held for juveniles and adults independently. White SHOs were highly likely to kill within their race, “intra‐racially” (range 91–100%) across four victim age categories, whereas Black SHOs killed both intra‐racially (range 24–82%) and inter‐racially (18–76%), with the likelihood of their killing inter‐racially increasing as the age of the victim increased. This study underscores the importance of considering victim–offender racial patterns in sexual murder investigations, and it offers practical implications for offender profiling.     

我国刑法共犯参与体系性质探讨——从统一正犯视野

在各国关于共同犯罪的刑事立法中,存在着区分正犯与狭义共犯的二元参与体系和不作上述区分的统一正犯体系两大类型,两种体系各有不同的特点。我国刑法并未提到正犯的概念,我国学者在共犯研究中鲜有涉及到我国犯罪参与体系性质的问题。我国刑法对共犯分类采用的是统一正犯体系,与传统的统一正犯体系相比又具有我国的特色。确定我国刑法所规定的犯罪参与体系性质对于我国共同犯罪理论与实务上一系列问题的解决有重要意义。     

Sample Mining and Data Mining: Combined Real-Time and Retrospective Approaches for the Identification of Emerging Novel Psychoactive Substances

Novel psychoactive substances (NPS) are synthetic drugs that pose serious public health and safety concerns. A multitude of NPS have been identified in the United States, often implicated in forensic investigations. The most common and effective manner for identifying NPS is by use of mass spectrometry and the true utility lies within nontargeted acquisition techniques. During this study, a liquid chromatography quadrupole time-of-flight mass spectrometry (LC-QTOF-MS) assay was developed, validated, and implemented for forensic toxicology testing. A SCIEX TripleTOF™ 5600 + with SWATH^® acquisition was used. Resulting data were compared against an extensive library database containing more than 800 compounds. The LC-QTOF-MS assay was applied to the reanalysis of biological sample extracts to discover emergent NPS. More than 3,000 sample extracts were analyzed, and more than 20 emerging NPS were detected for the first time. Among these were isopropyl-U-47700, 3,4-methylenedioxy-U-47700, fluorofuranylfentanyl, N-methyl norfentanyl, 2F-deschloroketamine, 3,4-methylenedioxy-alpha-PHP, eutylone, and N-ethyl hexedrone.     

汽车电子数据司法鉴定实践探讨

随着汽车相关案件频发和媒体的高度关注,汽车电子数据鉴定逐渐成为电子数据鉴定的热点方向.通过分析汽车电子数据鉴定的典型需求,将其分为事故调查、痕迹溯源和功能鉴定三类.结合汽车电子数据鉴定的技术标准和鉴定工具,系统性地介绍了汽车中具有证据价值的电子控制单元、事件数据记录系统、车载信息娱乐系统、汽车行驶记录仪、汽车行车记录仪...     

Assessing the Generalization of Psychopathy in a Clinical Sample of Domestic Violence Perpetrators

This study proposed that domestic violence perpetrators in a clinical sample could be categorized into distinct subgroups and that a particular subgroup of batterers would exhibit sufficient psychopathic characteristics to be clinically meaningful. Participants were interviewed in order to gather a relevant social, familial, educational, criminal, and substance abuse history. They were then administered several psychological measures including the Psychopathy Checklist: Screening Version (PCL:SV). Results lent support to the empirical batterer typology identified by Holtzworth-Munroe, A., Meehan, J. C., Herron, K., Rehman, U., & Stuart, G. L. (2000). However, despite the presence of a more antisocial subgroup, psychopathy did not consistently differentiate among batterers across the measured dependent variables.     

Assessing dynamic risk and protective factors in the community: examining the validity of the Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-entry

Recently, there has been a growing interest in advancing the state of offender risk assessment: particularly through the development of risk instruments to assist with parole management and the incorporation of protective factors specific to re-entry. The current study's aim was to validate a measure of stable and acute dynamic risk factors and protective factors used by probation officers managing offenders in the community: the Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-Entry (DRAOR). Empirical examination of the structure of DRAOR scores soon after release from prison suggested four components, rather than the theoretically proposed three-subscale structure. Both the original three subscales and the four new subscales showed good convergent validity with other dynamic risk instruments, and reliably predicted new convictions; however, only the new stable component added significant incremental predictive power over existing static and dynamic risk instruments. These findings provide initial support for the validity of the DRAOR; suggestions for future research are discussed.     

The paraphilia-related disorders: an investigation of the relevance of the concept in sexual murderers

Paraphilic disorders (PAs) and sexual preoccupation are known risk factors for recidivism in sexual offenders. Nonparaphilic sexual excessive behaviors-so-called paraphilia-related disorders (PRDs), like paraphilias, are also characterized by sexual preoccupation and volitional impairment and can be diagnosed in paraphilic men. The prevalence and clinical significance of PRDs in sexual homicide perpetrators, however, is unknown. We investigated the relationship between PAs and PRDs retrospectively in a sample of 161 sexual murderers. Four groups were compared: men without a PA or a PRD diagnosis, men with at least one PRD but no PA, men with at least one PA but no PRD, and finally, those with a combination of both (PA+PRD). The PA+PRD group had the most lifetime cumulative sexual impulsivity disorders, more developmental problems, the highest persistent frequency of sexual activity, the highest number of previous sexual offences, more sexual sadism, and compulsive masturbation. Men of the PRD subsample had suffered more from childhood sexual abuse, showed more promiscuity, psychopathy, and alcohol problems. The use of the PRD concept in this special offender group should be further investigated with prospectively designed studies.     

The sex offender next door: deconstructing the United States' obsession with sex offender registries in an age of neoliberalism

In the 1990s, against the backdrop of an ascending Age of Neoliberalism, sex offender registration statutes were passed in the United States. These laws require law enforcement officials to utilize computer technologies in order to publicly identify individuals who have been convicted of sexual offenses. In this study, we conducted in-depth interviews with twenty-four respondents who were forced to register as sex offenders. All of these participants resided within Southeast Texas, which is arguably one of the most punitive regions within the United States. The vast majority of the sample reported moderate to severe forms of harassment as a result of being outed as sex offenders via computer technologies. We conclude that in the post-Keynesian United States, the Web-based monitoring of sex offenders will continue to remain a popular American pastime and may even expand to other industrialized democracies throughout the world.     

美国加密数据的强制性披露

随着加密技术的发展,犯罪分子为了达到反取证目的,通常会给自己的电子设备加密。在美国,执法机构要搜查加密设备,将面临来自宪法第四修正案和技术限制两方面的挑战。为应对这些挑战,通常执法机构会通过传票强制被告披露密码或提交解密数据,但这又引出了宪法第五修正案的特权问题。要同时解决宪法第四与第五修正案的问题,最好的办法是将传唤解密数据与限制数据提交范围相结合。然而,一旦被告拒绝传唤,拒不提交解密数据,就有可能导致控诉失败。因此,有必要实施额外的法律机制,以弥补这一法律缺陷。     

论反倾销应诉中司法会计数据的可采性

在反倾销案件中,反倾销调查机关为了做出倾销裁定和产业损害认定,通常需要依赖于从司法会计执业人所收集到的大量司法会计数据。在反倾销司法会计中,司法鉴定执业人依其法定身份的要求,运用专业知识进行判断。司法会计数据的可采性问题是决定应诉结果的一个重要因素。根据我国反倾销应诉的实际情况,急需提高司法鉴定人执业水平,进而提高我国企业应诉过程中产生的会计数据的可采性。     

Morphometric Analysis of the Neurocranium in an Adult South African Cadaveric Sample,

Craniometric studies of South Africans yield high accuracies of sex and ancestry classification, but most assess only inter‐group variation of Black and White individuals, excluding the highly heterogeneous Colored group, which constitute a significant proportion of the population. This study applied a geometric morphometric approach to the neurocrania of 774 Black, Colored, and White individuals to assess sex and ancestry estimation accuracy based on the detected morphological variation. Accuracies of 70% and 83% were achieved for sex and ancestry, respectively, with ancestry‐related variation contributing the largest proportion of overall observed variation. Even when comparing the closely related Black and Colored groups, relatively high accuracies were obtained. It is thus recommended that a similar approach be used to develop a contemporary three‐dimensional database, which can be used to objectively, reliably, and accurately classify unknown remains in the South African forensic context.     

Accuracy of Three Age Estimation Methods in Children by Measurements of Developing Teeth and Carpals and Epiphyses of the Ulna and Radius

Abstract: The aim of this study was to compare the accuracy of three methods for age estimation in children: the measurements of open apices in tooth roots (T), the ratio between the total area of carpal bones and epiphyses of the ulna and radius (HW), and the combined method (THW). The sample consisted of 288 Caucasian Italian children (152 boys and 136 girls) aged between 5 and 15 years. Accuracy was determined as the difference between estimated age and chronological age, and accuracy was assessed by analyzing individuals’ orthopantomograms and hand‐wrist radiographs. Accuracies were 0.41 years for girls and 0.54 years for boys with the THW method; for the HW method, 1.00 years for girls and 0.92 years for boys; and for the T method, 0.62 years for girls and 0.71 years for boys. THW is the most accurate technique for age estimation in these children.     

医疗事故损害赔偿中的残疾生活补助费问题研究——从与一般人身损害赔偿比较的角度

与我们通常的认识不同,因医疗事故致残的,患者获赔的残疾生活补助费与一般人身损害赔偿的残疾赔偿金在金额上互有高低。就残疾生活补助费项目而言,现行的医疗事故损害赔偿规定既与现行人身损害赔偿制度不相吻合,又背离了立法目的,亦无法实现对患者的妥善保护,必须加以修订。     

The Impact of Confidence on the Accuracy of Structured Professional and Actuarial Violence Risk Judgments in a Sample of Forensic Psychiatric Patients

Some previous research indicates that confidence affects the accuracy of probabilistic clinical ratings of risk for violence among civil psychiatric inpatients. The current study investigated the impact of confidence on actuarial and structured professional risk assessments, in a forensic psychiatric population, using community violence as the outcome criteria. Raters completed the HCR-20 violence risk assessment scheme for a sample of 100 forensic psychiatric patients. Results showed that accuracy of both actuarial judgments (HCR-20 total scores) and structured professional judgments (of low, moderate, and high risk) were substantially more accurate when raters were more confident about their judgments. Findings suggest that confidence of ratings should be studied as a potentially important mediator of structured professional and actuarial risk judgments.     

Preliminary Data on the Role of Emotional Intelligence in Moderating the Link between Psychopathy and Aggression in a Nonforensic Sample

This short report presents preliminary data on the role of emotional intelligence (EI) in moderating the relationship between psychopathy and aggression in a nonforensic sample. A sample of 109 volunteer men was administered the Psychopathic Personality Inventory‐Revised (PPI‐R), the Reactive‐Proactive Aggression Questionnaire, and the Mayer‐Salovey‐Caruso emotional intelligence Test in individual sessions. Correlation and moderation analyzes showed that, at low levels of EI (in terms of strategic ability to understand and manage one's own and others’ emotions), people scoring high on the total PPI‐R and impulsivity dimension seemed to be both reactively and proactively aggressive. By contrast, at high levels of strategic ability, the relationships between psychopathy and aggression were no longer significant. These preliminary results encourage further investigation into the role of EI ability in mitigating aggressive outcomes in psychopathic subjects.     

An Assessment of the Quality of Homicide Data in the Supplementary Homicide Reports: A Research Note

The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI)’s Supplementary Homicide Reports (SHR) is a national-level incident-based data clearinghouse for homicide events in the USA used in countless research studies to track homicide trends, test theory, and analyze policy. Despite its wide use, the SHR has well-known limitations. This research note examines the accuracy of the information in the SHR by comparing homicide cases in Newark, New Jersey with their respective data to determine the level of disagreement between the data sources, which variables exhibit the greatest disagreement, and the case-related variables related to the disagreement. Uniquely, we do this for cases where offenders are known in the SHR. Our findings suggest that variables such as victim-offender relationship and circumstance have high disagreement even when the SHR reports an offender, and that the most important covariate of this is time to close the homicide investigation with an arrest. Research implications of the results are discussed.     

The Singapore Personal Data Protection Act and an assessment of future trends in data privacy reform

In the first part of this paper, I will present and explain the Singapore Personal Data Protection Act (“PDPA”) in the context of legislative developments in the Asian region and against the well-established international baseline privacy standards. In the course of the above evaluation, reference will be made to the national laws and policy on data privacy prior to the enactment of the PDPA as well as current social and market practices in relation to personal data. In the second part of this paper, I will decipher and assess the future trends in data privacy reform and the future development of the privacy regime in Singapore and beyond. In the course of this analysis, international standards, technological trends and recent legal developments in other jurisdictions will be considered.