Geopolitics of Nuclear Hypertrophy. America,the Bomb and the Temptation of Nuclear Primacy

The United States’ grand strategy has consistently been marked by a distinct tendency toward nuclear hypertrophy. Especially the inherent difficulties in extending deterrence to its allies and friends, compounded by the geopolitical characteristics of the US as an unassailable ‘insular’ fortress off Eurasia, have generated, rather paradoxically, a strong incentive for Washington to pursue a wide margin of nuclear superiority, if not nuclear primacy. This has implied, in turn, the deployment of redundant arsenals, robust counterforce capabilities and even a ballistic missile defence. Significantly, not even the Obama administration, though solemnly committed to nuclear disarmament, abstained from embracing a very ambitious modernisation program of American nuclear forces.     

The Influence of Emotional Intelligence on Negotiation Outcomes and the Mediating Effect of Rapport: A Structural Equation Modeling Approach

Although early research on negotiation focused on cognition and decision‐making processes, recently, negotiation scholars have started to pay attention to the importance of emotion in negotiation and have suggested that emotional intelligence is likely to improve negotiation performance. Few studies, however, have tested the relationship between emotional intelligence and negotiation outcomes. This study contributes by empirically testing the influence of emotional intelligence on specific negotiation outcomes (joint gain, trust between parties, and the desire of parties to work together again) and also examines the mediating effects of rapport. We used a laboratory experimental design with 202 participants to test the hypotheses. We found that a negotiator's emotional intelligence was correlated with his or her counterpart's trust level and desire to work again but had no effect on joint gain. In addition, rapport fully mediated the relationship between emotional intelligence and desire to work again, and between emotional intelligence and trust.     

《禁止核武器条约》之困境及出路

2021年1月22日起生效的《禁止核武器条约》致力于在全球范围内禁止核武器的拥有、研发、储存、转移、试验、使用或是威胁使用等行为,从而将核武器完全非法化。尽管《禁止核武器条约》反映了人道主义的关怀和无核世界的愿景,但该条约无论是在理论层面还是在现实层面都面临着不小的困境。从理论上看,《禁止核武器条约》以确立禁核规范来推动国际社会所有成员国弃核的逻辑基础并不牢固,因为规范可能退化甚至被颠覆,未必能够对国家产生强有力的约束。在现实层面,《禁止核武器条约》则因为全盘否定核威慑的重要性而遭到拥有核武器国家及其盟国的联合抵制,并暴露出该条约忽视部分国家的安全关切、损害国家自卫权利以及忽略裁军核查机制等不足。鉴于国际社会围绕《禁止核武器条约》产生了诸多争议,未来,该条约还是应当落脚到分步骤、渐进式的核裁军路线上来,需要在提供安全保证、区分禁核情形、建立核查机构,以及加强与不扩散国际机制兼容等方面进行完善,以促进当前核不扩散国际机制的改革和推动陷入停滞的核裁军进程的持续进行。     

Perception and Politics in Intelligence Assessment: U.S. Estimates of the Soviet and "Rogue-State" Nuclear Threats

United States estimates of Soviet nuclear goals and capabilities and the current "rogue-state" nuclear threat reflected prevailing beliefs about threat within the U.S. government and the relative influence of agencies charged with threat assessment. This article establishes that the patterns in formal Soviet threat assessment: (i) did not reflect a uniform response to "external threat," (ii) were inevitably tied to underlying assumptions about adversary intent, and (iii) were susceptible then to perceptual, organizational, and/or political influences within government. Thus, threat assessments reflected the optimism and pessimism—and political interests and ideologies—of those who participated in the estimating process. The article concludes by examining these lessons in light of the experiences and challenges of assessing threat from small states harboring nuclear ambitions.     

论以色列核政策与核战略的特点和影响

以色列核政策与核战略的演变可分为3个阶段.当前其主要特点是发展"三位一体"的核力量结构,加强核武器的威慑力和实战能力;采取"核模糊"政策,既谋求核威慑,也规避"国际合法性"的问题;全力防止中东其他国家拥有核武器.以色列核政策与核战略的主要影响包括:拥有核武器有助于以色列的军事安全,但加剧了中东紧张局势;对国际核不扩散体系产生严重负面效用,阻碍地区核不扩散机制的建立;可能促使以色列的阿拉伯和伊斯兰邻国发展核武器,增加了中东地区发生核冲突的可能性.     

人工智能影响复合战略稳定的作用路径:基于模型的考察

技术进步与时代变迁促使战略稳定的体系框架发生了重大变化。战略稳定理论的研究视角也经历了从核战略稳定、军事战略稳定到复合战略稳定的转变。一个新时期的复合战略稳定模型为探求上述理论与现实之间的互动提供了支撑,即通过战略能力、战略行为和战略意愿等三大链条,分析复合战略稳定的要素构成与互动关系,并且选取最有代表性的颠覆性技术——人工智能作为案例,分析其在复合战略稳定模型中的作用路径。人工智能的优势在于能够打破国家战略能力、战略行为和战略意愿三者的间隔,通过对战略能力的全面渗透效应、对战略意愿的双向引导效应、对战略行为的动态介入效应,从正负两个方面影响复合战略稳定。但是,人工智能对战略稳定的影响在多数情况下是负面的。这一发现,对于更好地认识人工智能对战略稳定的影响,以及维护战略稳定和提升人工智能治理能力,都具有重要的启示意义。     

美国设立国家情报主任四周年回顾

国家情报主任(简称DNI)是美国情报界的首脑、总统的首席情报顾问,为国家安全委员会和国土安全委员会提供与国家安全有关的情报事宜,并监督和指导国家情报计划的实施,由国家情报主任办公室(ODNI)辅助其工作。从2005年至今,国家情报主任已历三届:约翰·内格罗蓬特(John D. Negroponte)、麦克尔·麦康奈尔(Michael McConnell)与现任丹尼斯·布莱尔(Dennis C. Blair)。     

Russia's Artificial Intelligence Strategy: The Role of State-Owned Firms

In 2017, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared that whichever country becomes the leader in artificial intelligence (AI) “will become the ruler of the world.” Yet Russia lags competitors like China and the United States substantially in AI capabilities. What is Russia's strategy for boosting development of AI technologies, and what role do groups within the Russian elite play in shaping this strategy? Russia's AI development strategy is unique in that it is led not by the government, nor by the private sector, but by state-owned firms. The government's distrust of Russia's largest tech firm, Yandex, has sidelined the company from national AI planning. Meanwhile, Russia's defense conglomerate Rostec publicly appears to focus less on artificial intelligence than on other high-tech priorities. As a result, Russia's AI development has been left to a state-owned bank, Sberbank, which has taken the lead in devising plans for government-backed investment in AI.     

The Dilemma of Nuclear Disarmament: The Case of North Korea

ABSTRACT

The Hanoi summit between the US and North Korea failed not because of North Korea’s brinkmanship strategy or its miscalculation of the US position on the denuclearisation talks, but because of a fundamental issue: a dilemma of how much to yield in giving up its military capabilities to expedite the lifting of sanctions. The leadership in Pyongyang has concerns about the ‘deliverability’ of its promises to its domestic audience to ensure deterrence capabilities and economic recovery. The two-level game model explains why both sides keep minimising the range of options for the negotiations, increasing the risk that the talks will break down.     

论苏联解体后的“核遗产”及核扩散危机

苏联解体后其庞大的核武库也一分为四,在核武器系统、核材料、核科学家及核技术等三个层次都出现了失控的核扩散危机。以美国为首的国际社会从各个方面给予了大力援助,使前苏联庞大的"核遗产"得到了妥善的处理。因苏联解体而一度出现的核国家增多的问题得以解决,核扩散危机也基本得到消除。这不仅有效地捍卫了国际核不扩散体制,而且在实践上也是对国际核不扩散机制的补充和发展,对人类社会的和平与安全也是重大的贡献。当朝鲜和伊朗核问题屡成危机而长期困扰国际社会时,我们重温这段历史,也具有深刻的现实意义。     

The Return to the Pressure Track: The Trump Administration and the Iran Nuclear Deal

During the 2016 United States presidential election campaign, Donald Trump promised to “renegotiate” the July 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, better known as the Iran nuclear deal. The deal does not prevent Iran from building nuclear weapons and in some ways actually makes it easier for Iran to go nuclear in the future. The mere continuation of the current deal could undermine America’s interests in the Middle East and its global non-proliferation policy. How then can the Donald Trump Administration work to renegotiate the deal? This analysis provides a strategy that the Trump Administration can follow to improve American policy toward Iran, namely do what Iran is doing to the United States: abide by the strict terms of the agreement, whilst competing in all of the ways not covered in the deal. From an American perspective, increasing pressure on Tehran will constrain Iran’s destabilising influence in the region. Over time, Washington can leverage the pressure to force Iran back to the table to strike a renegotiated agreement that eliminates, not just delays, the Iranian nuclear and missile threat.     

猛虎组织溃败的原因分析

猛虎组织的失败并非偶然,它是一系列原因综合作用的结果。首先,在国际反恐合作的背景下,猛虎组织被许多国家认定为恐怖组织而取缔,而斯里兰卡政府却利用这一背景加强了与西方及周边国家的军事合作。其次,在有效整合国内政治力量的前提下,斯政府在军事上对猛虎组织采取了富有成效的进攻和围剿。再次,猛虎组织内部的分裂削弱了自身的实力,领导人的独断导致了战略决策的失误,而穷兵黩武的暴力恐怖政策则使其最终丧失了国内外的同情和支持。     

防止核扩散的两大难题——以印关核关系为例

全球核不扩散面临着困境,国际社会在目标上的不确定性和体制上的低效性是当今世界核不扩散面临的难题,而各国利益的不一致是其根本原因,它也使这一国际行动的未来充满变数。美国与印度在核关系上的变化以及近年来热议的核合作,也无法回避这些难题。