A three-year recidivism analysis of state correctional releases

The present study undertakes a three-year follow-up time frame of approximately 10,000 inmates released from New Jersey prisons in 2012. Consistent with the methodology set forth in federal analyses, various definitions of recidivism were utilized. Recidivism rates were consistent, and in some counts below, federal findings as well. Rearrest post-release rates were 53%, reconviction rates were 40.1% and reincarceration rates were 31.3%. Offenders released to supervision had higher rates of reincarceration, while unsupervised offenders (i.e. max-outs) had higher rates of rearrest and reconviction. Males were more likely to be rearrested than females, while younger offenders were more likely to be rearrested than older offenders. Released inmates with prior arrests, convictions, and reincarcerations maintained substantially higher odds of rearrest, as did those with a higher number of prison discipline allegations. Released inmates with a violent admission offense were rearrested the least, while those serving time on a previous community supervision violation were rearrested the most. These findings are discussed within the context the criminal justice system and the existing literature.     

Evaluating the Minnesota Comprehensive Offender Reentry Plan (MCORP): Results from a Randomized Experiment

Using a randomized experimental design, this study evaluated the effectiveness of the Minnesota Comprehensive Offender Reentry Plan (MCORP), an offender reentry pilot project implemented in 2008. In an effort to reduce recidivism, MCORP attempted to increase offender access to community services and programming by producing greater case management collaboration between caseworkers in prison and supervision agents in the community. The results showed that MCORP significantly improved employment rates, decreased homelessness, broadened offenders’ systems of social support, and increased the extent to which offenders participated in community support programming (mentoring, restorative justice services, and faith‐based programming). The findings further revealed that MCORP significantly reduced all three types of reoffending (rearrest, reconviction, and new offense reincarcerations) but did not have a significant impact on supervision revocations for technical violations. The evidence suggests that MCORP was effective in decreasing reoffending largely because it increased the extent to which offenders were employed, involved in community support programming, and able to develop systems of social support.     

Drug courts for DWI offenders? The effectiveness of two hybrid drug courts on DWI offenders

The effectiveness of drug courts for illegal drug-involved offenders has been well documented (Belenko, 1998, 2001; Wilson, Mitchell, & MacKenzie, 2006), however, few studies had examined whether they work for repeat “driving while intoxicated” (DWI) or “driving under the influence” (DUI) offenders. The current study examined sixty-six offenders who had completed one of two hybrid DUI/drug courts (compared to eighty-six similar parolees) operating in two small cities in a single midwestern state. Results suggested that among non-DUI offenders, completion of the drug court program reduced recidivism, as might be expected; however, among the subsample of chronic DUI offenders no significant recidivism reduction was noted. These results add to the small, but growing literature suggesting that DUI courts (as they are currently being implemented) may not be an effective way to reduce the occurrence of repeat DUI offenses. Suggestions for DUI court implementation and future research are presented.     

The Impact of Federal Prison Industries Employment on the Recidivism Outcomes of Female Inmates

Female offenders face many barriers to employment, including a lack of education and work experience. Correctional work programs offer skills training and exposure to work routines and norms, yet there is scant research on whether these programs can increase a woman's employability, and thus reduce recidivism, upon release. This longitudinal study examines whether employment in the federal prison industries program, UNICOR, reduces recidivism among a large sample of female inmates. Propensity scores are utilized to control for selection bias. This study finds no significant differences in rearrest or recommitment to federal prison between inmates employed in UNICOR and those who were not. Length of UNICOR employment is also not shown to have an effect on recidivism. The gender-specific needs of female offenders must be taken into account when developing correctional programming as factors other than employment may be more salient to a woman's ability to desist from crime.     

Reducing juvenile recidivism with cognitive training and a cell phone follow-up: an evaluation of the realvictory program

The purpose of this research was to evaluate the effects of a cognitive training and cell phone intervention on the recidivism of 70 juvenile offenders. Median days to rearrest were 106 for the control group, 191 for the class-only group, and 278 for the class plus cell phone group. Using rearrest as the survival criterion, the survival ratios of the class-only and class plus cell phone groups were 2.64 and 2.94 times longer than the control group, respectively. After controlling for gender, prior arrests, and risk score, the Poisson regression indicated that the class-only and class plus cell phone groups were 51% lower in total arrests than the control group. These results suggest that cognitive training supplemented with a cell phone coach is an effective and cost-efficient intervention for reducing recidivism.     

Recidivism in Stalking and Obsessional Harassment

Despite the rapidly growth of mental health attention focused on the phenomenon of stalking, no empirical research to date has attempted to assess the frequency of repeat offending or attempted to identify predictors of recidivism. A total of 148 stalking and harassment offenders who were court-ordered to undergo a mental health evaluation were followed for a period of 2.5–13 years in order to assess the frequency of repeat offenses and the variables that differentiated high versus low risk offenders. Recidivism data were obtained from a variety of sources, including criminal justice records, mental health records, and reports from probation officers and victims. A number of potential predictor variables were selected on the basis of the existing recidivism literature in other criminal justice populations. Frequency analysis were used to identify variables that significantly differentiated offenders who did and did not reoffend while survival analysis was used to analyze the impact of these covariates on time to reoffense. A total of 49% of the offenders reoffended during the follow-up period, 80% of whom reoffended during the first year. The strongest predictors of recidivism included the presence of a personality disorder, and in particular, a Cluster B personality disorder (i.e., antisocial, borderline, and/or narcissistic). In addition, those offenders with both a personality disorder and a history of substance abuse were significantly more likely to reoffend compared to either of these risk factors alone. Surprisingly, the presence of a delusional disorder (e.g., erotomania) was associated with a lower risk of reoffender. The findings are discussed in terms of the legal system and treatment implications.     

The parole performance of offenders released from shock incarceration (boot camp prisons): A survival time analysis

The parole performance of offenders who were released after successfully completing a shock incarceration program was examined and compared to the performance of offenders who were serving time on probation or parole after a period of incarceration. Separate survival analyses were performed for recidivism as measured by (1) arrests and (2) failures (jailed, absconded, or revoked). Prior incarceration, age, age at first arrest, and risk assessment score were related to recidivism but type of sentence was not. Intensity of supervision was significantly related to recidivism but this relationship was eliminated when risk level was controlled. There was no evidence that shock incarceration reduces recidivism. Future research should focus on methods of reducing failures during community supervision for these young, nonviolent offenders within the framework of either a shock incarceration program or some other sentence.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the American Probation and Parole Association 14th Annual Training Institute, Milwaukee, Wisconsin, August 1989.     

Probation absconders: A unique risk group?

While examination of probation violations is common in the literature, probationers who abscond from community supervision have rarely been examined. These violators are circumventing justice and may pose a serious risk to public safety. This article compares the characteristics of absconders to those of offenders who successfully completed probation and offenders revoked from probation because of other violations. Absconders and revoked probationers generally presented the least favorable risk profiles, but did not differ significantly from one another on probation conditions, “stakes in conformity,” or prior felonies—although revoked probationers had more misdemeanors and a younger age of onset for officially recorded crime. Combined with the violation behaviors of absconders while on probation, these similarities suggest a strong chance of being revoked to prison had absconders remained under supervision. Employment, recorded address changes, and lower supervision burden on offenders were among the best predictors of successfully completing probation versus absconding.     

Participation in drug treatment court and time to rearrest

This study uses an experimental design to assess the impact of a drug treatment court on nonviolent felony offenders. The drug court program combines intensive supervision, judicial monitoring, drug testing, and drug treatment to reduce recidivism and other problem behaviors. Survival analyses showed that the drug court sample had a significantly longer time to first rearrest than the control sample. Assignment to the drug court also significantly reduced the risk of drug crime failure during the follow-up period. The drug court and control samples had identical failure rates during the first 4 months of the follow-up, after which the drug court appeared to have its greatest impact on the risk of failure. Further analyses suggested that compliance with various drug court components, particularly early and continued drug treatment attendance, reduced the risk of failure among this sample.     

THE IMPACT OF MEGAN'S LAW ON SEX OFFENDER RECIDIVISM: THE MINNESOTA EXPERIENCE*

Although Megan's Law was passed more than 10 years ago, very little is known as to whether it reduces sex offender recidivism significantly. Using a retrospective quasi‐experimental design, we examine whether community notification has a deterrent effect by comparing the recidivism rates of 155 level 3 (“high public risk”) sex offenders released from Minnesota prisons between 1997 and 2002 who were subject to broad notification with two separate control groups who were not. The first control group (referred to as the prenotification group) contained 125 sex offenders released between 1990 and 1996 (the 7 years preceding the implementation of the Community Notification Act) who likely would have been subject to broad community notification had the law been in effect at the time of their release. The second control group (referred to as the non‐notification group) was composed of 155 offenders (37 level 1 and 118 level 2) released between 1997 and 2002 who were not subject to broad community notification. The results from the Cox proportional hazards models reveal that broad community notification significantly reduced the risk of time to a sex reoffense (rearrest, reconviction, and reincarceration) compared with both control groups. The findings were mixed, however, for both non‐sex and general reoffending. Whereas broad community notification significantly reduced the risk of timing to both non‐sex and general recidivism compared with the prenotification group, no such effects were found in the non‐notification group analyses. We discuss the implications of these results and attempt to explain why Megan's Law seems to reduce sex offense recidivism in Minnesota.     

Long-term recidivism of mental health court defendants

The first MHC was established in 1997 and now, over 15 years later, there are over 300 mental health courts in the United States. In a relatively short time these courts have become an established criminal justice intervention for persons with a mental illness. However, few studies have looked at the long-term outcomes of MHCs on criminal recidivism. Of the studies evaluating the impact of MHCs on criminal recidivism, most follow defendants after entry into the court during their participation, and only a few have followed defendants after court exit for periods of one or two years. This study follows MHC defendants for a minimum of five years to examine recidivism post-exit with particular attention to MHC completion's effect. Findings show that 53.9% of all MHC defendants were rearrested in the follow-up and averaged 15 months to rearrest. Defendants who completed MHC were significantly less likely to be rearrested (39.6% vs. 74.8%), and went longer before recidivating (17.15 months vs. 12.27 months) than those who did not complete. This study suggests that MHCs can reduce criminal recidivism among offenders with mental illness and that this effect is sustained for several years after defendants are no longer under the court's supervision.     

Comparing Gender Across Risk and Recidivism in Nonviolent Offenders

The purpose of this study was to examine whether gender differences exist in the rate, type, and general predictors of recidivism for nonviolent offenders. A total of 328 male and female Texas state jail offenders were matched on current offense, total number of arrests, age, and race. Contrary to previous findings, the results demonstrated no significant gender differences for recidivism rates, although significant gender differences were found for those who had reoffended with property and prostitution offenses. Similar to previous findings, age and total arrests were significant predictors for both male and female offenders. In the current sample, substance abuse was predictive for male offenders only. Although no gender differences were found across the recidivism predictors of static and criminogenic need, the protective factors of positive social support significantly predicted recidivism for female offenders and not male offenders. The current results add to the understanding of gender differences for the assessment, risk prediction, and treatment of offenders.     

PREDICTING THE RECIDIVISM OF SERIOUS YOUTHFUL OFFENDERS USING SURVIVAL MODELS*

Increases over the past decade in the number and seriousness of crimes committed by young offenders have resulted in renewed interest in control of the serious, violent, or chronic youthful offender. Recent research has established a number of theoretically relevant variables associated with persistent offending and offending defined recidivism. Few studies, however, have examined the individual characteristics that might predict the timing of youthful recidivism. This paper seeks to fill some gaps in knowledge of the serious youthful offender by estimating a multivariate survival model for a sample of youths paroled from California Youth Authority institutions. The model's results are then used to develop risk-assessment profiles for the sample. We suggest that these profiles may provide a reasonable approach for establishing treatment protocols or supervision requirements for paroled youths.     

Residential Location,Household Composition,and Recidivism: An Analysis by Gender

Although the challenges offenders face when returning home from prison have been well documented, much remains to be learned about the gendered patterns of reentry. This line of inquiry can be further refined by examining the unique effects of residential movement, housing location, and household composition on reentry trajectories. To address these questions, we use a sample of men and women released from prison in Missouri. Consistent with past research, men are more likely to fail overall, but women are more likely to be recommitted to prison for a technical violation. We find that community context had the largest effect in models of technical violations for the male sample. Similar community effects were not observed for the female sample. Family support was a strong protective factor for men and women. We discuss the policy implications of the study for prisoner reentry in general and the import for a gendered understanding of recidivism.     

The impact of judge–defendant communication on mental health court outcomes

Previous research has shown that mental health courts have been successful in reducing the rates of recidivism among mentally ill offenders. However, none of these studies, to date, have examined exactly what aspects of the courts reduce these rates of recidivism and what makes them successful. The current study utilized a sample of 291 mentally ill criminal offenders participating in a mental health court to examine whether those participants who were addressed by and communicated with the judge had a reduction in recidivism rates and the severity of new charges in comparison to those who did not. The hypotheses regarding greater judge–defendant communication and recidivism were not supported. This suggests that communication in and of itself is not sufficient to reduce recidivism. Future research of a qualitative nature is essential to identify if the frequency, tone, and valence of the communication results in improved outcomes. In addition, these results may indicate a necessity for more stringent training and guidelines for the maintenance of Mental Health Courts. Results of the current study suggested differences between genders, such that females were spoken to by the judge more frequently than were men.     

Religious programs and recidivism among former inmates in Prison Fellowship programs: A long-term follow-up study

In the mid-1990s, Prison Fellowship (PF), a nonprofit religious ministry to prisoners, commissioned a study to determine the relationship, if any, between religious programming and recidivism. Subsequent research found no difference between PF and non-PF inmates on measures of recidivism. Inmates most active in PF Bible studies, however, were significantly less likely to be arrested during a 1-year follow-up period. This study extends and improves on previous research by: (1) increasing the recidivism window from 1 to 8 years; (2) incorporating new approaches to measuring program participation; (3) including two measures of recidivism—rearrest and reincarceration; and (4) using survival analysis and proportional hazards modeling to present and analyze the data. Results from survival analyses indicate: (1) no difference in median time to rearrest or reincarceration between PF and non-PF groups throughout the 8-year study period; (2) participants with higher levels of participation in Bible studies were less likely to be rearrested at 2 and 3 years after release, though the effect diminishes over time; (3) statistical differences across groups only border significance at 2 and 3 years for reincarceration; and (4) proportional hazards modeling shows that high participation in Bible studies significantly reduces the hazard of rearrest at years 2 and 3.     

Social ecology, individual risk, and recidivism: A multilevel examination of main and moderating influences

Purpose

Despite a longstanding tradition in criminology to consider the impact of neighborhood context on crime-related outcomes, criminologists have largely ignored the influence of social ecology on recidivism until recently. The purpose of the present study was to examine the main and moderating influences of social ecology on recidivism.

Materials and Methods

The present study used hierarchical nonlinear modeling to estimate the effects of concentrated disadvantage, immigrant concentration, and residential stability on recidivism for a sample of offenders released from custody/supervision in 2006 and nested within Iowa counties. We controlled for individual-level risk for recidivism using the Level of Service Inventory-Revised (LSI-R), a validated risk assessment instrument. We also examined whether the relationship between LSI-R score and recidivism varied across counties, and if so, whether this variation can be explained by social structural characteristics.

Results

Results indicate that residential stability was the only contextual variable significantly related to recidivism. The relationship between individual-level risk and recidivism did not vary across contexts.

Conclusions

The findings suggest that the social structural context has limited influence on recidivism, while the LSI-R is a robust predictor of recidivism across contexts. We discuss the implications of our findings for theory, practice, and future research.     

Intensive supervision programs: Does program philosophy and the principles of effective intervention matter?

Although traditional intensive supervision programs that have aimed at increasing control and surveillance in the community have not been shown to reduce recidivism, prior research indicates that intensive supervision programs that are based on a human service philosophy and provide treatment to offenders offer more promise. The current research examined the effectiveness of fifty-eight intensive supervision programs and sought to determine whether program philosophy and treatment integrity are associated with reductions in recidivism. The results indicated that both program philosophy and treatment integrity vary independently of one another and are related to the ability of programs to produce meaningful effects on recidivism.     

A survival model of pretrial failure

This paper examines the likelihood of rearrest during the pretrial period with a model that depends on both time elapsed since release and on individual and case characteristics. Using data on a sample of male arrestees released on recognizance in the District of Columbia in 1984, we apply a survival or hazard model to the problem of predicting pretrial rearrest. We are particularly interested in whether drug use, as measured by urinalysis at arrest, is predictive of pretrial rearrest and its timing. Results show, for example, that drug use or a charge for larceny is associated with high risk levels in the period immediately following release. In our data, the number of prior convictions exerts a strong effect on rearrest risk throughout the pretrial period, but the initial high risk associated with being on probation or parole or having pending charges decreases rapidly over the course of a year at risk.     

Comparing Male and Female Prison Releasees across Risk Factors and Postprison Recidivism

This study, using data from a large sample of prison releasees, examined the similarities and differences in men's and women's risk factors for recidivism involving rearrest for any crime and rearrest for a violent crime during an average 3.4-year follow-up period. Logistic regressions revealed several gender differences. Prior incarceration, time served, and specific types of prior arrest histories had differential associations with women's and men's overall and violent recidivism. Age, race, and conviction offense were gender-specific risk factors for overall recidivism, and education level and marital status were gender-specific risk factors for violent recidivism. Implications for risk assessment are discussed.