The Brazilian military after the Cold War: In search of a mission

What purpose should Brazil’s armed forces serve in upcoming years? Democratization, the end of the Cold War, and Brazil’s economic crisis have prompted an unprecedented debate over this question by narrowing the range of tasks that the Brazilian military can pursue. This article investigates civilian and military support for various possible military roles and analyzes their compatibility with civilian control. It argues that the political weakness of the current government, the economic crisis, and growing social unrest militate against an expansion of the military’s conventional external defense mission and in favor of non-combatant domestic functions. This has begun to occur despite military enthusiasm for the former and military reservations about the latter. The military’s adoption of multiple domestic assignments in a country with a tradition of military interventionism poses risks to civilian control.     

Successful and failed democratic transitions from military rule in majority Muslim societies: the cases of Indonesia and Egypt

As majority Muslim societies with significant minorities and dominant militaries, Indonesia and Egypt experienced strikingly similar political trajectories between the early 1950s and the late 1990s. Yet, their respective democratic transitions have seen vastly different outcomes: while Indonesia solidified its democracy by extracting the military from politics, Egypt's democratic experiment ended after only two years with the return of the armed forces to the apex of government. This article highlights the reasons for this divergence. Contrary to existing scholarship that exclusively focuses on different geographical or economic circumstances, this contribution emphasises dissimilarities in the patterns of authoritarian rule, military organisation, intra-civilian conflict and international support. Conceptually, the discussion locates the Indonesian and Egyptian cases within the broader debate on civilian control in post-authoritarian states, arguing that this discourse needs to pay more attention to the creation of intra-civilian agreements on fundamental issues of governance as the best strategy to establish strong democratic oversight over the armed forces.     

Russian military patriotic education: a control tool against the arbitrariness of veterans

The military had been concerned about military patriotic education for a long time when Putin's Patriotic Education Programme was published. As soon as the collapse of the Soviet Union occurred, followed a few years later by the creation of the Russian armed forces, they had already been developing patriotic education programmes aimed primarily at youth, aided by veterans of local wars, both volunteers and recruits. The aim of this article is to show that the military version of patriotic education aims openly to encourage military service, and that the Russian state will try to enlist veterans of the Afghanistan and Chechen wars in activities linked to military patriotic education and its spread in military and civilian spheres. Our hypothesis is that the determination to bring veterans together around a common project has two aims: (1) to federate veterans around the authorities and (2) to channel a population that escapes government control and some of whose excesses on their return to civilian life (violence towards the population in the context of their function, for veterans of the Interior Ministry in particular) have darkened the image of the ministries known as the “power” ministries.     

Policy Coalitions,Economic Reform and Military Power in Ecuador and Venezuela

Military coups and coup attempts, as well as the establishment, or continuation, of economic/social development roles for the military far outside traditional security missions have been a part of civil–military relations in Ecuador and Venezuela since 1990. The military's greater role in Ecuador and Venezuela has in part been a consequence of the failure of neoliberal and globalist policy coalitions to establish and maintain a hegemonic consensus over political power and national policy. This failure has undermined progress in orienting the military in a ‘democratic’ direction that prioritises traditional security roles under the ultimate command of civilian authorities. It has also allowed for competing models of civil–military relations to emerge that draw upon nationalist or socialist models of military power and democracy.     

Economic Development Subsidies and the Funding of Private Prisons

For-profit prison corporations have sold prison privatization as a tool for economic development. The idea of prisons became more appealing once for-profit prison corporation demonstrated that they could finance, build, design, and construct prisons with private capital from private investment companies. Many private prisons throughout the United States are provided local, state, and federal economic development subsidies — which may include tax advantaged financing, property tax abatements, infrastructure improvements, and personnel training and development resources. Most research on prison privatization has examined costs and quality comparisons of private run prisons to government run correctional facilities. This article examines the factors that predict economic development subsidies to private prisons, which include: economic, social control, geographic, and political factors. Logistic regression results indicate the per capita gross state product, political ideology, black male disenfranchisement, and mandatory sentencing laws predict economic development subsidies to private prison corporations.     

Terrorism: A strategic perspective

This paper compares the U.S. national security strategy's vision for counter‐terrorism missions to the political realm in which conventional military forces and terrorists operate. Terrorist acts and state responses are analyzed to demonstrate that they have differing political effects, which calls into question the political utility of a conventional military counterterrorist response. Terrorism is placed within context of the present era as, according to Martin van Creveld, evolving historical conditions are wrenching warfare out of the political realm in which Clausewitz's analysis originally posited warfare's extension of political activity based on state power. The article also discusses terrorism's nebulous placement within the levels of war to reveal another aspect of terrorism's different relationship to the political realm. Ultimately, this challenges the U.S. national security strategy's conclusion that conventional military force used in “punitive” or “counterterrorism” operations is an effective political response to terrorism.     

Edgy Amity along the Mekong: Thai-Lao Relations in a Transforming Regional Equilibrium

Abstract

In 1994, the opening of the Friendship Bridge commenced an apparent thawing of ties between Thailand and Lao People's Democratic Republic (PDR). Out of deep socio-historical antagonisms and Cold War acrimony, the two countries seemed suited now for amity. But amity has continued to be edgy. Meanwhile, other countries in the region—China and Vietnam—vie for influence with Thailand over Lao. Amidst a rapidly integrating Mekong market and changing regional equilibrium, this study seeks answers to the following questions: What are the most significant Thai-Lao state security interests and how do they mesh with human security—especially in relation to economic interests? Why do Thailand and Lao currently appear to be highlighting economic ties to the detriment of military preparedness and human security? How is the shifting equilibrium in the Mekong Region shaping the future of Thai-Lao relations? The study hypothesizes that despite tensions, in an age of enhanced state-market linkages, Thailand and Lao prioritize economic collaboration over military and human security considerations.     

Fighting crime and maintaining order: shared worldviews of civilian and military elites in Brazil and Mexico

Abstract

Domestic internal security missions have become a centrepiece of Brazil and Mexico’s counter-narcotic efforts. Relying on a set of interviews, this article addresses narratives of elites engaged in the decision-making process and implementation of military operations to counter drug trafficking crimes in Rio de Janeiro and Tijuana. In spite of different levels of drug trafficking organisation and international ramification, this article points out the existence of shared narratives of growing insecurity and criminal strength in Brazil and Mexico, justifying state military reaction against a perceived national security threat. The article thus suggests the relevance of civil–military elites’ perception in defining public policies’ instruments and, ultimately, in upholding the militarisation of security in democratic regimes.     

The limits to military power: Institutions and defense budgeting in democratic Argentina

This article examines the reasons behind the dramatic decline in military budgets in Argentina under democratic rule. These trends were unexpected, given the, political power the armed forces of that country have wielded in the past. Here it is argued that within the democratic state, there were institutional arrangements that enabled civilian decision makers to trim defense expenditures, despite opposition from the military. The two key institutional traits were found to be the concentration of authority and the autonomy of decision-makers from outside pressures. Because budgetmaking was centered within a well-insulated civilian-run ministry, fiscal planners working at the behest of the president were able to design and implement budgets they wanted, over and above the objections of military officers, and without interference from other branches of government. David Pion-Berlin is a Professor of Political Science at the University of California, Riverside. He is the author of several books, includingThrough Corridors of Power: Institutions and Civil-Military Relations in Argentina (Penn State University Press, 1997), and numerous articles on the subjects of Latin American civil-military relations, military regimes, political economy, and political repression.     

Book Review

U.S. military doctrine has recently elevated stability and support operations (SASO) to be a mission on par with the traditional combat missions, offense and defense. The new doctrinal approach to SASO represents a revolutionary change in the military's raison d’être; now the armed forces’ job is not only to win battles, but to create space for political negotiations and accords through the provision of controlled, nonviolent environments and other forms of military assistance to civilians. This article puts this change into context, looking at the American military's history of SASO and the longstanding debates about the military's priorities and roles.     

ANTICIPATING INVASION: MILITARY TRAINING IN TAIWAN’S HIGH SCHOOLS, 1953–1960

Abstract

When the Guomindang retreated to Taiwan in 1949, Chiang Kai-shek and party leaders feared an imminent Communist invasion. Lacking soldiers in the reserve army, Chiang turned to high school and college students to recruit and train for the armed forces. In 1953, the Ministry of National Defense Political Department implemented mandatory military training in all senior high schools on the island and soon began educating and dispatching military instructors (jiaoguan), both male and female, to gender-segregated schools. Boys received basic infantry training (such as target shooting) while studying GMD revolutionary and military history. Meanwhile, girls participated in similar exercises but also acquired nursing skills. As a result, compulsory military training became a powerful force in Taiwanese high schools throughout the 1950s, preventing student protests against the government and successfully mobilizing male and female youth under an increasingly militarized GMD state.     

Why Do Some Insurgent Groups Agree to Cease-Fires While Others Do Not? A Within-Case Analysis of Burma/Myanmar, 1948–2011

This article uses Burma/Myanmar from 1948 to 2011 as a within-case context to explore why some armed insurgent groups agree to cease-fires while others do not. Analyzing 33 armed groups it finds that longer-lived groups were less likely to agree to cease-fires with the military government between 1989 and 2011. The article uses this within-case variation to understand what characteristics would make an insurgent group more or less likely to agree to a cease-fire. The article identifies four armed groups for more in-depth qualitative analysis to understand the roles of the administration of territory, ideology, and legacies of distrust with the state as drivers of the decision to agree to or reject a cease-fire.     

The Impact of the Housing Bubble on the Growth of Municipal Debt: Evidence from Spain

The aim of this paper is to analyse the impact of the recent Spanish housing boom and the subsequent burst on local public finances. Particularly, we investigate the effect of the rise and later fall in revenue from urban development on local government debt. Using a sample of the Spanish largest municipalities in the period 2003–2011, we find that debt was substituted by revenue from urban development during boom years and this substitution effect vanished after the burst of the boom. Our results also reveal that local public finances have worsened after the burst of the housing bubble since now they have larger current spending and smaller savings.     

Civilian Defense Forces,State Capacity,and Government Victory in Counterinsurgency Wars

Given the onset of a violent rebellion by an armed non-state group, how do states re-establish intra-state peace and hence fulfill their basic function as providers of internal security? In this article I argue that one way governments perform this core function is by recruiting non-combatants into local self-defense units called civilian defense forces (CDFs). By providing for local security, leveraging their superior local knowledge, and provoking insurgent reprisals against civilians, CDF units facilitate the influx of tactical intelligence as well as isolate insurgents from non-combatant populations physically as well as politically. Consistent with the argument, statistical analyses of two different cross-national data sets of insurgencies from 1944 to 2006 reveal that a state is 53 percent more likely to vanquish a guerrilla threat if the incumbent deploys CDFs. The analyses also cast doubt on a recent claim in the literature that incumbent force mechanization adversely affects the states’ ability to counter insurgent threats. Given that CDF deployment is a more easily manipulable variable than most other elements of state power, CDFs appear to be an effective instrument of counterinsurgency deserving of further academic and policy attention.     

Local Fiscal Stress in California: Out of Local Control and Driving Toward Growth

Abstract

Many regions of the United States have experienced rapid growth in recent decades with California being the best example of this growth. The dangers of such growth have been evident since the 1970s and yet, neither the state nor local governments have been very successful in implementing growth control policies. Why it is that government has been unable to rein in the growth has been the focus of much research in recent decades. There are essentially two schools of thought with regard to this question. One is that pro‐growth forces—essentially landowners, business elites, and elected officials—actively promote growth because it provides them personally with benefits. The other view, advocated most by Paul Peterson back in the early 1980s, is that elected officials do support and adopt pro‐growth policies, but not by choice. Cities, Peterson argued, are constrained by the economic situation around them and they must do what they can to raise revenues and reduce, or hold steady, expenditures. This research examines a region of southern California that has experienced tremendous growth despite the fact that surveys of resident attitudes within the region indicates that in general, residents favor growth control. This research contributes to an understanding of the driving forces behind the pro‐growth policies of local governments by considering how fiscal constraints placed on local governments by the state may limit the policy options of local elected officials, as Peterson predicted. This study finds that there is evidence to indicate that the revenue‐raising options available to cities may be contributing to pro‐growth policies. And this could help explain why elected officials continue to support growth within their cities despite the fact that residents express negative views toward growth.     

Local Government Finance Office Orientation Revisited: Actually,It’s All About Control

In states with heavy oversight of local government finances, alternate levels of control orientation exist based on county government budget formulation and financing practices. However, previous research indicates a possible trend toward policy orientation. Using survey data from North Carolina counties, initial findings indicate high levels of finance officer budget formulation discretion as well as county manager agreement with budget decisions. Additional logit models suggest that while stakeholder influence is still present along with remnants of policy orientation, the state financial oversight mechanism along with the background, knowledge of departmental financial needs, and frequent departmental appropriation dissemination by the finance officer, continue to sustain control orientation.     

A Human Security Peace-Building Agenda

International peace building in post-conflict societies has helped to bring armed conflicts to an end and reduced the recurrence of war. According to some scholars, peace building has therefore contributed to the apparent downward trend of major intra-state conflict in recent years. However, the liberal institutionalist values which underpin international peace building—emphasising democracy, free market economics and the liberal state—have raised a range of criticisms and challenges from scholars as well as local stakeholders in the societies in which peace-building programmes are deployed. In particular, the prevailing approaches to peace-building give insufficient attention to basic and everyday human needs, and promote externally conceived models of state institutions which are not always appropriate. This article explores the problems of contemporary peace building and argues that an alternative vision which draws upon the concept of human security and gives greater emphasis to welfare, livelihoods and local engagement can make peace building more legitimate and sustainable.     

Beyond Stereotypes: An Exploratory Profile of Australian Women Mayors

Women continue to be under-represented in senior positions in local government. This study draws on interviews with 19 women mayors who held office in the Australian state of Queensland during the period 2000–2004. The paper finds that the profiles of women in these positions has markedly changed over the last decade, and concludes that if the local government sector is to remain robust and viable in these changing social and economic times there is a need to focus on dismantling the stereotypes and implement well-designed and considered strategies to develop women leaders.     

Business and the Politics of Urban Violence in Colombia

What explains variation in local government policy responses to urban violence? Existing research on the politics of urban violence overlooks the pivotal role that private sector interests play in shaping the public provision of security in major developing world cities faced with conditions of intense violence. I argue that business is a pivotal political actor that mobilizes through powerful private sector institutions to shape policy responses to urban violence in ways that advance its economic interests and preserve its privileged status in local political arenas. The security policy preferences of business vary across economic sectors due to variation in relations to urban space and violence. This cross-sectoral variation in security policy preferences generates both opportunities and challenges for political and societal actors that seek to stem and prevent urban violence. Analysis of puzzling variation in policy responses across Colombia's three principal cities—Medellin, Cali, and Bogota—and over time within each shows that a focus on business can strengthen our understanding of the politics of urban violence and, more broadly, its implications for development.     

Bond notes,borrowing, and heading for bust: Zimbabwe’s persistent crisis

“Bond notes” were introduced by the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe in late 2016 as a local surrogate currency equivalent in value to the US dollar to address the acute currency shortage afflicting the economy. Unsurprisingly, they were overwhelmingly rejected by Zimbabweans, who feared that they heralded a return to the hyper-inflation which had destroyed incomes and savings in 2008–09. Accordingly, faced by a widening budget deficit, the ZANU–PF government turned to alternative methods of creating money with a view to winning the next election: expanding the supply of electronic currency and selling Treasury bills. The resultant financial crisis provided the backdrop to the military’s recent displacement of President Robert Mugabe. However, commitments to economic reform by any new government dominated by ZANU–PF appear unlikely to address Zimbabwe’s persistent crisis.