The development of an automatic recognition system for earmark and earprint comparisons

The value of earmarks as an efficient means of personal identification is still subject to debate. It has been argued that the field is lacking a firm systematic and structured data basis to help practitioners to form their conclusions. Typically, there is a paucity of research guiding as to the selectivity of the features used in the comparison process between an earmark and reference earprints taken from an individual. This study proposes a system for the automatic comparison of earprints and earmarks, operating without any manual extraction of key-points or manual annotations. For each donor, a model is created using multiple reference prints, hence capturing the donor within source variability. For each comparison between a mark and a model, images are automatically aligned and a proximity score, based on a normalized 2D correlation coefficient, is calculated. Appropriate use of this score allows deriving a likelihood ratio that can be explored under known state of affairs (both in cases where it is known that the mark has been left by the donor that gave the model and conversely in cases when it is established that the mark originates from a different source). To assess the system performance, a first dataset containing 1229 donors elaborated during the FearID research project was used. Based on these data, for mark-to-print comparisons, the system performed with an equal error rate (EER) of 2.3% and about 88% of marks are found in the first 3 positions of a hitlist. When performing print-to-print transactions, results show an equal error rate of 0.5%. The system was then tested using real-case data obtained from police forces.     

The repeatability and reproducibility of the Sheffield Features of Gait Tool

Gait, the pattern or style in which locomotion is undertaken, has kinematic characteristics that may occur in varying proportions of a population and therefore have discriminatory potential. Forensic gait analysis is the analysis, comparison and evaluation of features of gait to assist the investigation of crime. While there have been recent developments in automated gait recognition systems, gait analysis presented in criminal court to assist in identification currently relies on observational analysis by expert witnesses. Observational gait analysis has been the focus of considerable research, and it has been shown that the adoption of a systematic approach to both the observation and recording of features of gait improves the reliability of the analysis. The Sheffield Features of Gait Tool was developed by forensic gait analysis practitioners based on their casework and trial experience, and consists of more than a hundred features of gait and variances. This paper reports the findings of a study undertaken to assess the repeatability and reproducibility of the Sheffield Features of Gait Tool.Fourteen participants, with experience in observational gait analysis, viewed footage of computer generated avatars walking, and completed the features of gait tool on multiple occasions. The repeatability scores varied between participants from a highest score of 42.59 out of a maximum possible score of 45 (94.65%), to a lowest score of 30.76 (68.35%), with a mean score of 35.79 (79.54%) and a standard deviation of 3.59 (7.98%). The reproducibility scores for the assessment of each avatar varied from a highest score of 137.73 out of the best possible score of 180 (76.52%), to a lowest score of 127.21 (70.67%), with a mean score of 132.21 (73.45) and a standard deviation of 3.82 (2.12%). The results demonstrated that the use of the Sheffield Features of Gait Tool by experienced analysists resulted in what could be considered to be good levels of both repeatability and reproducibility. Some variation was shown to occur both between the results produced by different analysts, and between those produced from the analysis of different avatars. An understanding of the probative value of gait analysis evidence is an important facet of its submission as evidence, and the design and testing of standardized methods of analysis and comparison are an essential element of developing that understanding. This study is the first to test a purpose designed features of gait tool for use in forensic gait analysis.     

Differential Effects of Adult Court Transfer on Juvenile Offender Recidivism

Prior research indicates that adolescent offenders transferred to adult court are more likely to recidivate than those retained in the juvenile system. The studies supporting this conclusion, however, are limited in addressing the issue of heterogeneity among transferred adolescents. This study estimates the effect of transfer on later crime using a sample of 654 serious juvenile offenders, 29% of whom were transferred. We use propensity score matching to reduce potential selection bias, and we partition the sample on legal characteristics to examine subgroup effects. We find an overall null effect of transfer on re-arrest, but evidence of differential effects of transfer for adolescents with different offending histories. These results suggest that evaluating the effects of transfer for all transferred adolescents together may lead to misguided policy conclusions.     

Detection of Malingered ADHD Using the MMPI-2-RF

This study examined the utility of the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory—2 Restructured Form (MMPI-2-RF) validity scales for detecting feigning and exaggeration of attention-deficit/hyperactive disorder (ADHD) among college students. Under a simulation study design, participants with and without ADHD were assigned to perform honestly or to feign or exaggerate deficits related to ADHD while completing self-report symptom inventories. Participants instructed to feign produced symptom profiles similar to honest clinical profiles and more severe than honest nonclinical profiles. Participants with ADHD instructed to exaggerate produced less severe profiles than those instructed to feign and more severe profiles than clinical controls. MMPI-2-RF scale Fp-r showed potential for use in malingered ADHD detection at a revised cut score, which was significantly lower than the cut score suggested in the test manual; use of the revised cut score will require further validation. Scales F-r, Fs, and FBS-r did not classify well, but should be assessed in future studies of malingered ADHD. Detection of exaggeration was consistently poorer than detection of feigning.     

Examination of variation in sternal rib end morphology relevant to age assessment

The morphology of the sternal end of the right fourth rib has been proffered as an accurate age assessor in skeletonized individuals of both sexes. This technique was tested for its applicability on left and right II, III, V-IX. Tests were performed between phase scores obtained from right and left ribs; right rib IV phase scores and scores obtained from the others in the right rib series; and between right rib IV scores and a composite score composed of the average of an individual's phase scores (omitting rib IV). Left ribs IV-IX were found not to vary significantly from their right counterparts. Although only right rib II was found to vary significantly from rib IV, use of the other ribs in the series should be undertaken with caution due to questions concerning their statistical significance. A composite score is therefore recommended for use instead.     

Performance Study of a Score‐based Likelihood Ratio System for Forensic Fingermark Comparison

In this article, the performance of a score‐based likelihood ratio (LR) system for comparisons of fingerprints with fingermarks is studied. The system is based on an automated fingerprint identification system (AFIS) comparison algorithm and focuses on fingerprint comparisons where the fingermarks contain 6–11 minutiae. The hypotheses under consideration are evaluated at the level of the person, not the finger. The LRs are presented with bootstrap intervals indicating the sampling uncertainty involved. Several aspects of the performance are measured: leave‐one‐out cross‐validation is applied, and rates of misleading evidence are studied in two ways. A simulation study is performed to study the coverage of the bootstrap intervals. The results indicate that the evidential strength for same source comparisons that do not meet the Dutch twelve‐point standard may be substantial. The methods used can be generalized to measure the performance of score‐based LR systems in other fields of forensic science.     

The Impact of Time on Parent Perspectives on the Barriers to Services and the Service Needs of Youths in the Juvenile Justice System

The purposes of this study were: 1) to assess the overall perspectives of parents (N=115) of youths in the juvenile justice system on the barriers to and services needs of youths in the juvenile justice system; and 2) to assess the strength of the relationship between duration of time the youth has been involved in the juvenile justice system and parent perceptions of barriers and service needs. The top service need was case management. Statistically significant moderate negative correlations were found between duration of time in the juvenile justice system and Total Barrier score, and all composite barrier scores (i.e., Mismatch, Red Tape, and Inaccessibility). Statistically significant small negative correlations were found between duration of time in the juvenile justice system and the Total Service Needs score and two composite scores: Substance Abuse Services and Out‐of‐Home Services.     

Evaluating the Role of Race in Sentencing: An Entropy Weighting Analysis

The current study builds on prior research examining racial disparities in sentencing. Entropy weighting is introduced as a new method for estimating racial disparities that has several advantages over traditionally used methods. Entropy weighting is compared to regression and propensity score methods in estimating Black-White disparities in incarceration sentences. Although all methods find non-significant racial disparities in incarceration sentences, regression and propensity score methods underestimate disparities in incarceration sentence lengths. Entropy weighting provides comparable estimates to propensity score methods, but assures that the samples are identical on all covariates aside from race. The method offers researchers a useful and flexible approach for estimating racial disparities in criminal justice, and its use may lead to alternative conclusions about the size and presence of racial disparities in sentencing.     

Crime control through saturated community policing: A corporate policing model

Police officers in Western countries do not run day‐to‐day security operations in private companies and corporations. In contrast, Chinese police are directly involved in corporate security management. Responding to the criticisms that comparative studies in the West have overemphasized general and macro‐sociological analyses, this paper will introduce a specific Chinese corporate policing model based on the researcher's two‐month field research recently. The corporation under study is managed through a score keeping system, where security scores are concretely established, and a comprehensive approach is utilized which embodies the use of technical, formal, administrative, educational, and community control measures.     

A quasi-experimental test of the effects of criminal justice involvement on later mental health

Objectives

While many criminological theories posit causal hypotheses, many studies fail to use methods that adequately address the three criteria of causality. This is particularly important when assessing the impact of criminal justice involvement on later outcomes. Due to practical and ethical concerns, it is challenging to randomize criminal sanctions, so quasi-experimental methods such as propensity score matching are often used to approximate a randomized design. Based on longitudinal data from the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development, the current study used propensity score matching to investigate the extent to which convictions and/or incarcerations in the first two decades of life were related to adverse mental health during middle adulthood.

Methods

Propensity scores were utilized to match those with and without criminal justice involvement on a wide range of risk factors for offending.

Results

The results indicated that there were no significant differences in mental health between those involved in the criminal justice system and those without such involvement.

Conclusions

The results did not detect a relationship between justice system involvement and later mental health suggesting that the consequences of criminal justice involvement may only be limited to certain domains.

     

Cutoff Scores for the Morel Emotional Numbing Test for PTSD: Considerations for Use in VA Mental Health Examinations

The use of cutoff scores on symptom validity measures has been applied to determine the authenticity of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs compensation and pension examinations. This approach is controversial due to variations in the interpretation and application of cutoff scores from symptom validity testing. In response to the proposal that the cutoff score on the Morel Emotional Numbing Test for Posttraumatic Stress Disorder (MENT) be increased, the diagnostic accuracy of the standard cutting score for identifying simulated symptoms of PTSD was compared to the proposed alternate cutoff score. The results of decision matrix tables (true positive, true negative, false positive, and false negative) comparing the sensitivity and specificity and deriving confidence intervals for the standard cutoff score and proposed alternate cutoff score are presented. In addition, analyses using binomial probability theory to determine whether the outcome of increasing the cutoff score on the MENT meets reasonable standards for types I and II errors are presented.     

The prognostic value of the PCL-R in relation to the SUD treatment ending

Scientific research about patients with substance use disorders (SUD) treated within the context of forensic compulsory addiction treatment is seldom available. Scientifically supported surveys regarding the treatability of SUD patients are rare. Some authors claim that the Psychopathy-Checklist-Revised (PCL-R) has value for predicting therapeutic success. PCL-R scores rely on extensive interview data and a detailed review of criminal records and social history. The scores reflect 1) the affective and interpersonal psychological traits; and 2) socially deviant conduct. This study was conducted by the forensic professional clinic at the hospital for Psychiatry and Neurology Hildburghausen. We assessed 102 male patients using the PCL-R. This investigation evaluated the Total score of the PCL-R and the score of Factor 1 and Factor 2 in relation to the end of treatment by court order. The results showed significant differences between patients who completed treatment and those who did not. Patients that dropped out of treatment had a higher score in PCL-R. With the use of the PCL-R it is possible to make a quantitative statement about which patients will complete treatment.     

多系统联合分析应用于复杂亲缘关系鉴定

目的探讨多种检测系统用于祖孙、同胞等复杂亲缘关系鉴定的效能。方法采用常染色体、性染色体STR检测系统以及常染色体STR基因座累计状态一致性评分方法筛选符合要求的参照样本,分析复杂亲缘关系鉴定中缺失被鉴定人的等位基因,对无法重建的＂空白＂等位基因,以最不利于＂认定亲缘关系＂的假设取概率值计算似然率。结果在一复杂亲缘关系鉴定案例中,从8个声称的全同胞中筛选出5个符合同父同母遗传条件的全同胞作为参照样本用于重建缺失被鉴定人等位基因,重建的父母相关基因型符合作为被检女孩亲生祖父母的遗传基因条件,祖孙亲缘关系似然率为1483659.96。结论在复杂亲缘关系鉴定中联合协同应用常染色体STR基因分型、性染色体STR基因分型、生物学全同胞关系累计状态一致性评分标准等多种分析系统有利于获得更接近真实的案件结论。     

Propensity score analysis: promise, reality and irrational exuberance

Objectives

The aim of this work is to examine the promise that propensity scores can yield accurate effect estimates in nonrandomized experiments, review research on the realities of the conditions needed to meet this promise, and caution against irrational exuberance about their capacity to meet this promise.

Methods

A review of selected experimental work that illustrates both the promise and realities of propensity score analysis.

Results

Propensity score analysis of nonrandomized experiments can yield the same results as randomized experiments. Those estimates depend on meeting the strong ignorability assumption that the available covariates well describe selection processes and on use of comparison groups that are from the same location with very similar focal characteristics. When those assumptions are not met, propensity scores may not yield accurate estimates.

Conclusions

The use of propensity score analysis has proliferated exponentially, especially in the last decade, but careful attention to its assumptions seems to be very rare in practice. Researchers and policymakers who rely on these extensive propensity score applications may be using evidence of largely unknown validity. All stakeholders should devote far more empirical attention to justifying that each study has met these assumptions.     

Adapting and Applying the Phenice (1969) Adult Morphological Sex Estimation Technique to Subadults

This research evaluated whether adult morphological sex estimation methods of the innominate could be adapted and applied to subadults. The subpubic concavity, described by Phenice (1969) and revised by Klales et al. (2012), was modified for use with subadults. Two observers scored radiographic images from the PATRICIA database of 334 individuals of both sexes aged between 1.19 and 20.47 years. Score frequencies shifted from score 2 (straight) to higher frequencies of score 3 (convexity) in males and score 1 (concavity) in females with increasing age. Using ordinal logistic regression, sex classification was highest for the oldest age cohort at 97.2% and then decreased by age cohort. Interobserver error rendered a high level of agreement (0.806) using the intraclass correlation coefficient. Results indicate that the Klales method can be modified and applied to subadults to accurately estimate sex following the onset of puberty with a high degree of reliability and validity.     

IMPLICATIONS OF THE DIVORCE MEDIATION ASSESSMENT INSTRUMENT FOR MEDIATION PRACTICE

The development of the Divorce Mediation Assessment Instrument (DMAI), based on six dimensions—commitment, social-psychological factors, values, understanding, skills, and conflict—was in response to the need to systematically assess clients' readiness for divorce mediation and to inform and guide intervention. Tests on DMAI showed high reliability, and reasonable instrument validity. The implication of DMAI for mediation practice is discussed in terms of the various outputs of DMAI: DMAI score, subscale score, and item score. Issues in assessment raised included highlighting strengths, working on agreements, and preventive intervention. DMAI's implication for theory building and research is also discussed. Careful assessment is needed for appropriate use of mediation, and the DMAI provides a model of assessment which has clinical, empirical, and theoretical validity.     

Healing Families: Outcomes from a Family Drug Treatment Court

Family drug treatment courts (FDTC) have been acknowledged as a promising intervention for substance‐abusing parents involved in the child welfare system. Over the past decade, the number of FDTC programs has grown substantially, yet questions remain regarding the efficacy of these courts. This study examines the ability of the Snohomish County (WA) FDTC to address the three main goals of the Adoption and Safe Families Act. Utilizing propensity score matching, this study found that participants were more likely to have their children returned, experienced stronger treatment completion rates, and had less use of foster care. Implications for replication and further analysis are discussed.     

精神障碍者受审能力评定量表的编制

目的研制符合中国法律体系的精神障碍者受审能力评定量表。方法从法学要件着手,提取出15个条目,编制出初步的精神障碍者受审能力评定量表,从决断值、条目与总分相关、校正条目与总分相关、条目删除后的α值、条目共同性、因素负荷量6个方面对量表进行条目分析,并以Logistic回归方程与ROC曲线划定界值两种方式进行诊断效能的判断。结果各条目极端组的决断值18.390~46.763,各条目与总分相关系数0.639~0.952,校正条目与总分相关系数0.582~0.944,条目共同性0.377~0.916,因素负荷量0.614~0.957。共7个条目进入回归方程,总样本的回判正确率为96.0%。ROC拟合曲线分析出宜以33分作为量表划界分,与专家鉴定意见的重叠率为95.8%,敏感性为0.938,特异性为0.966,阳性似然比为27.67,阴性似然比为0.06。结论量表编制合理,各条目符合同质性检验要求,诊断性评价指标较好。     

Measuring Desiccation Using Qualitative Changes: A Step Toward Determining Regional Decomposition Sequences

The creation of a regional decomposition scoring system for western Colorado provides a model for the creation of regional systems. The development of a scoring system requires: (1) human remains, not proxies, (2) longitudinal observations, and (3) large sample size. First, an enhanced system (total body desiccation score; TBDS) was developed through observations of 40 human remains. This effort produced a categorical scoring model augmented by qualitative categories of gross tissue change. The new model was tested with retrospective photographic packets. A sample of eight donors with data collected over 3 years was selected. Monthly data points over a maximum of a 3‐year period yielded 112 data points. Correlations between TBDS and accumulated degree‐days (ADD), and total body score (TBS) and ADD were approximately equal for a TBS below ~20, but the TBDS correlated better with ADD at higher TBS scores >20. The TBDS may be used to refine postmortem interval (PMI) models in areas where remains desiccate.