The Shift of China’s Strategic Thinking on Cyberwarfare Since the 1990s

Journal of Chinese Political Science - It has been widely argued that China has prepared for launching cyberwarfare against the United States for long time. There are two reasons for this. First,...     

Getting the Balance Right? Party Competition on Immigration and Conflicting Ideological ‘Pulls’

Will a plurality of cleavages ‘pull’ parties in different directions? Are these strains particularly troublesome when competing on issues that lack an obvious dimensional fit? Are some parties more likely than others to experience these tensions? And does it matter? While the essence of the party‐political space has received substantial coverage, less attention is paid to the effects that multidimensionality may have on issue competition. Comparing British and Swedish parties, this article analyses how any contradictory positions have been negotiated, and when such tensions are likely to emerge.     

The Quiet Revolution? The Labour Party and Welfare Conditionality

Labour's 2017 general election manifesto contained a pledge to ‘end the punitive sanctions regime’ in the British welfare state. Whilst the specific implications of this pledge were not elaborated, such a policy would nevertheless constitute a profound break with a welfare consensus spanning over twenty years. The depth of the suggested changes on welfare are also evident in the scale of reform proposed to disability benefits, as well as plans—confirmed in August 2018 by the Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell—to pilot universal basic income. Collectively, these policies would seemingly be deeply at odds with public opinion on the benefits system, which over the course of the last two decades has significantly hardened. Yet despite the seemingly radical and controversial nature of the policy, it received very little media or public attention during the election campaign. This article explores Labour's ‘quiet revolution’ on welfare, examining whether Labour's new welfare approach is indeed a bold attempt to reshape public opinion on welfare or, alternatively, a mostly pragmatic reaction to changing social attitudes. The argument presented is that whilst there are persuasive explanations that Labour is responding to a change in the public mood, there is also evidence of a more ambitious goal at stake: the aim of reshaping, not simply responding to, public opinion on the welfare state.     

A Rising Tide? The Salience of Immigration and the Rise of Anti‐Immigration Political Parties in Western Europe

In this article, we consider the causes of the increase in voting for anti‐immigration parties in western Europe in the past decade. We first note that one of the most commonly assumed reasons for this increase is an associated increase in anti‐immigration sentiment, which we show is likely to be false. We also outline the major theoretical explanations, which we argue are likely to be incomplete. We then introduce our proposed explanation: these parties have benefitted from a sharp increase in the salience of immigration amongst some voters. We show that there are strong correlations over time between the salience of immigration and the polling of such parties in most western European countries. We argue that aspects of immigration in the last decade have activated pre‐existing opposition to immigration amongst a shrinking segment of the populations of western European states.     

English Education Policy after New Labour: Big Society or Back to Basics?

This article considers possible future directions for education policy and public service governance under the Conservative‐led coalition government. The article considers the extent to which Conservatives might develop a distinctive strategy for managing public services that breaks decisively with that of the New Labour era. The coalition faces a markedly different political and economic context for public service reform compared to its predecessor. This article argues that these contextual constraints make a continuation of the New Labour governing strategy less viable, but unresolved tensions in the coalition education policies enacted to date may hinder the development of a novel project for education reform. As a consequence, the New Labour education project seems likely to remain largely intact for the foreseeable future.     

A Big Idea for the Big Society? The Advent of National Citizen Service

The proposed introduction of National Citizen Service (NCS) by the Conservative party survived the negotiations with the Liberal Democrats and forms part of the coalition's policy agenda. The idea forms part of the concern of Cameronian Conservatives to create a big society, based primarily upon volunteering and civil engagement. Drawing upon comparisons with state and private sector‐led models of citizen volunteering in Germany and the United States, this article explores the evolving rationale for the introduction of NCS and evaluates the issues and pitfalls which may arise.     

The Big Society: Power to the People?

The Prime Minister, David Cameron, recently set out his vision of a ‘big society’. Its core themes are empowering communities, redistributing power from the state to citizens and promoting a culture of volunteering. The idea is badly flawed. It overlooks the crucial role that needs to be played by the state in promoting social justice, which is vital to the development of active citizenship and vibrant communities. Moreover, Cameron views the active citizen as simply a philanthropist and volunteer rather than as a politically literate individual, knowledgeable about the major political issues of the day and actively involved in debates about how public or private services ought to be run. The initiative is particularly perverse in the context of the credit crunch, a vitally important cause of which was precisely not the development of an over‐mighty state but rather the inadequate state regulation of free market trading activities by banks.     

Will We All Hunker Down? The Impact of Immigration and Diversity on Local Communities in Spain

This article engages with the scholarly debate on the supposed negative effect of immigration and diversity, and analyses its effect on two different forms of trust – community trust and generalized trust – in Spain. Our contribution is twofold. First, with census section level data of representative samples of all the Spanish municipalities, we test the propositions that relate greater ethnic diversity to social trust. Second, we address the limitations intrinsic to the crude measurement of diversity of the Herfindahl index with a systematic consideration of multiple alternative indicators of immigration-related diversity. We find evidence of a negative effect of diversity on community trust but none on generalized trust. Hence, our findings lend some support to the recent scholarship that questions that increasing diversity has a “hunkering down” effect.     

What Motivates the Gatekeepers? Explaining Governing Party Preferences on Immigration

Most scholarship on immigration politics is made up of isolated case studies or cross‐disciplinary work that does not build on existing political science theory. This study attempts to remedy this shortcoming in three ways: (1) we derive theories from the growing body of immigration literature, to hypothesize about why political parties would be more or less open to immigration; (2) we link these theories to the broader political science literature on parties and institutions; and (3) we construct a data set on the determinants of immigration politics, covering 18 developed countries from 1987 to 1999. Our primary hypothesis is that political institutions shape immigration politics by facilitating or constraining majoritarian sentiment (which is generally opposed to liberalizing immigration). Our analysis finds that in political systems where majoritarianism is constrained by institutional “checks,” governing parties support immigration more strongly, even when controlling for a broad range of alternative explanations.     

The electoral effectiveness of constituency campaigning in the 2010 British general election: The ‘triumph’ of Labour?

This article establishes a model of likely campaign effectiveness, before examining the intensity of constituency campaigning at the 2010 general election in Britain and its subsequent impact on electoral outcomes, using both aggregate and individual level data. It shows that constituency campaigning yielded benefits in varying degrees for all three main parties and that Labour’s constituency campaign efforts were effective despite the electoral context, and ultimately affected the overall outcome of the election. These findings have significant implications for our understanding of the circumstances under which campaigns are likely to be more or less effective, and provide further evidence that a carefully managed campaign stands the most chance of delivering tangible electoral payoffs.     

Safe Labour Suburbia? The Changing Politics of the Merseyside Suburbs

Over the past twenty‐five years, safe Conservative seats in the affluent Merseyside suburbs have instead become safe Labour seats. This remarkable political transition poses an important puzzle for students of voting behaviour. Analysis of voting patterns since 1979 underlines the exceptional scale of the shift to Labour on Merseyside compared with other metropolitan areas. Yet, substantial swings to Labour in suburban constituencies like Sefton Central and Wirral South in 2015 and 2017 cannot be explained with reference to wider evidence of the party's increased support among younger, more diverse, cosmopolitan populations. It is shown that Labour dominance on Merseyside has occurred via three distinct phases, with the political map of the city‐region turning red, over time, from the core outwards. Explanations rooted in the changing relationship between the city and its suburbs are argued to best explain the emergence of Merseyside as a ‘red conurbation’.     

The Right to Know? State Politics of Fracking Disclosure

U.S. energy firms are increasingly expanding their production of natural gas oftentimes by relying on a controversial extraction technique known as hydraulic fracturing. While proponents cite a litany of benefits including economic development and reduced carbon emissions, opponents articulate concerns typically centering on environmental quality. Caught between these opposing points of view, states are turning to disclosure requirements. Yet all disclosure statutes are not created equally. In order to better understand this variation, I utilize Abel, Stephan, and Kraft's (ASK) 2007 performance model, which evaluates the effectiveness of information‐based disclosure rules for industry. The model here, however, is applied in an attempt to understand why disclosure regulations emerge and vary across states. Results generally validate the ASK approach but with one caveat. I find that in the context of differing disclosure regulations, the ASK model's pollution severity/risk measure may be refined by including risk perception.     

Comparing Radical Right Parties in Government: Immigration and Integration Policies in Nine Countries (1996–2010)

This article investigates the direct influence of radical right parties on immigration and integration policies by comparing the output of 27 cabinets of varying composition in nine countries in the period between 1996 and 2010. A Nationalist Immigration and Integration Policy index has been developed to measure legislative changes with regard to citizenship and denizenship, asylum, illegal residence, family reunion and integration. The comparative analysis of immigration and integration legislation shows that the policy output of cabinets including radical right parties deviates significantly from centre-left and centre cabinets, but does not differ much from that of centre-right cabinets. The quantitative analysis makes clear that although parties matter, radical right parties do not matter in particular. A case by case analysis confirms that the direct impact of radical right parties on policy output has been severely limited by the difficulties these parties face in adapting to public office.     

Property as a Constitutional Right in the Nineteenth Century: Or What Have We Learned Since Corwin?

The evolution of due process from an innocuous paraphrase ofthe old English concept "the law of the land" into a strongbastion of property rights until its curtailment in constitutionaldecisions in 1937 has been beautifully delineated in the writingsof Edward Corwin. Later writers have concentrated largely onextrapolating that history to cover the metamorphosis of propertiedliberty into personal rights, which has even required a modestrevival of property protection. Still, Corwin has been amendedon several key points. (1) We now understand that the nineteenth-centurybattle over property was not between property and persons, butbetween an older concept of "property as possession" and a dynamiccapitalist view of "property as creation of social value." (2)The transformation of "due process" in popular controversy,which Corwin was acute enough to advance as a factor, seemsto have been the most decisive factor, particularly alteringthe debate on the Fourteenth Amendment. (3) Corwin's searchfor a transforming case representing a decisive conceptual changeseems misplaced The complex economic-regulation due-processcases allowed a move from "procedure to substance" without anyvisible transformation of legal rules.     

Path-to-Citizenship or Deportation? How Elite Cues Shaped Opinion on Immigration in the 2010 U.S. House Elections

The ascendency of immigration as an issue in elections has been concomitant with massive increases in the Hispanic population in the U.S. We examine how immigration cues prompt greater or lesser levels of restrictionist sentiment among individuals, showing demographic context conditions the effect of candidates cues. Using data from the 2010 U.S. House elections, we illustrate cues presented in new destination states—states with massive increases in the size of the Hispanic population from 1990 to 2010—have a larger impact on individuals’ immigration preferences than cues presented in non-new destination contexts. We show candidates with more extreme immigration positions are more likely to prioritize the issue of immigration in their campaigns, suggesting campaign prioritization of immigration has a directional cue. We conclude these directional cues from Republican candidates in new destination contexts move individual attitudes toward restrictionist preferences.