国际金融危机以来日本货币政策转变分析--经济条件、决策体制与政策理念的影响

2008年9月发生的以美国为源头的国际金融危机,对日本经济产生了重大的冲击。在大幅度经济衰退的情况下,日本银行在2010年时隔4年后再次启动了宽松货币政策,至今这一政策已经实施了5年之久,中间经历了重大的转变,由2013年3月以前的"总括性宽松政策"变为其后的"异维度量化宽松政策"。文章从不同时期日本经济背景出发,侧重于日本银行体制和决策者政策理念对政策决定的影响,分析日本货币政策发生的重大转变。具体包括国际金融危机发生后宽松政策的再启动与黑田日本银行实施的"异维度量化宽松政策"、日本银行决策体制与政策理念的改变对政策转变的影响和后一政策实施的效果及展望等3部分内容。     

中日货币政策比较研究

货币政策是一国货币当局(中央银行)为实现其特定的宏观经济目标而采取的各种控制和调节货币供应量或信用总量的方针及措施的总称,一般由政策工具、中介目标和政策目标三部分构成。一国的货币政策对于维持本币汇率稳定,对于推进本国宏观经济的可持续发展,都具有关键性作用。一般来讲,一国货币当局制定和实施货币政策的主要参照标准是本国特定的宏观经济目标,而不同的经济环境又直接决定着本国当时的特定性宏观经济目标。因此,考察一国的货币政策首先要置于不同的经济背景下进行分析。一、基于不同经济环境下的日本货币政策回顾二战后至今,日本经济环境大致经历了经济起飞阶段(二战后到1960年代末)、经济平     

日本泡沫经济生成与货币政策效果的内在关联——基于货币政策传导机制的实证分析

从货币政策汇率及资产价格传导机制出发,通过构建SVAR模型分析日本泡沫经济生成与货币政策效果的内在关联。研究结果表明:20世纪80年代中后期,日本为应对日元升值冲击而施行的宽松货币政策并未达到预期效果,对日元汇率、出口、产出的影响并不明显,货币政策的汇率传导机制受阻。但是由于宽松货币政策直接推高了资产价格,资产价格的迅速提高并没有带动投资以及产出的相应增长,资金良性循环过程被打断,资产价格对投资以及投资对产出的传导受阻,宽松货币政策对实体经济的提振作用削弱,过剩流动性滞留资本市场,最终引发了泡沫经济的生成。鉴于此,中国应吸取教训,谨慎调控货币政策并且综合考量政策效果,合理防范资产泡沫膨胀以及积极引导创业、创新投资夯实实体经济基础等。     

景气回升与结构调整──韩国经济走出危机的两难选择

一自1997年11月21日韩国向国际货币基金组织申请资金援助，并于12月3日正式与国际货币基金组织签署总额为570亿美元的一揽子援款协议后，时间已一年有余，但韩国经济仍处于严重的不景气状态。国际货币基金组织在当初决定提供援款的同时，曾预测1998年韩国经济增长率可望达到2．5～3．0％，并要求韩国实行紧缩的财政与货币政策及各种结构调整政策。此后，虽然紧缩政策通过每季度的政策协商而得到了遵守，但结构调整政策却没有取得预期的效果。更成问题的是，经济状况一路下滑，国际货币基金组织每季度都在下调对韩国经济增长率的预测值，在第…     

俄罗斯转型以来货币政策演化分析——公共选择的视角

俄罗斯在经济转型过程中并未将控制通货膨胀作为货币政策的核心目标。这样的货币政策目标选择,是因为俄罗斯中央银行缺乏足够的独立性,在制定和实施货币政策时受到了执政者或其他利益集团的影响。目前,俄罗斯已明确未来将把控制通货膨胀作为核心的货币政策目标,这将使货币政策的制定和实施更加透明有序,俄央行也将具备更高的独立性。     

2020年宏观经济：全面建成小康社会的发展红利将进一步显现

2019年,中国经济稳定运行,实现了"六稳",各项宏观经济指标均符合预期政策目标;2020年,中国经济长期向好趋势依然,短期增长面临的下行压力增大。因此需要实施更加明确的扩张性宏观经济政策,坚持贯彻"稳中求进"工作总基调,充分发挥积极的财政政策功能.     

欧洲经济政策结构评述

马约为经济货币联盟建立起一套全面的经济政策结构,将统一货币政策的相关职权授予欧元体系,而将其他经济政策职权保留给成员国,不过这些政策要在不同程度上受到有关多层次管理和政策协调的约束性规则的制约。协调形式最强的是已经形成统一政策的领域,包括竞争政策、货币政策和汇率政策;其次是属于密切协调的政策领域,包括财政政策和结构政策;再次是协调形式相对较弱的政策领域,包括劳动力市场政策、产品和资本市场政策、工资政策等。协调结构的核心是广泛经济政策指导方针,具体的执行程序包括在执行财政政策方面的稳定与增长公约、关于劳动力市场的就业指导方针(卢森堡进程)、关于产品和资本市场的经济改革报告(卡迪夫进程)、有关工资增长的宏观经济对话(科隆进程)。     

金融危机后日本银行货币政策框架演变与启示

为了应对全球性金融危机对金融系统的冲击,日本银行采用了极为宽松的货币政策,在灵活调整货币政策框架的同时运用了大量传统和非传统的政策工具。文章主要从货币政策目标、货币政策工具以及货币政策传导机制三个方面考察了金融危机后日本银行从传统货币政策体系框架向量化货币政策体系框架的演变过程。日本银行的政策实践对我国进一步完善货币政策框架有一定的借鉴和启示。     

悬崖边的欧元

不少经济学家预期,欧元区2023年出现经济衰退的可能性正在上升,还有一些分析认为,衰退可能更早就出现。美国花旗集团的一位分析师则更为悲观地指出,市场不仅担心欧元区经济出现短期衰退,更担心欧元区经济长期陷入困顿。2022年7月的第二周,23岁的欧元跌跌撞撞地向悬崖边迈出一步——7月13日,美联储激进加息预期增强,欧元兑美元急挫至0.9997,为2002年12月以来首次跌破平价。为此,7月21日,欧洲中央银行宣布加息50个基点,自7月27日起生效。在实施多年超宽松货币政策后,这是欧洲央行11年来首次加息,并高出预期25个基点。     

金融宏观审慎监管工具体系及其有效性研究

金融宏观审慎监管的工具体系是宏观审慎政策框架的重要组成部分。文章分析了金融宏观审慎政策工具的作用原理和政策实施的有效性,讨论了宏观审慎的政策规则和相机抉择机制,认为政策规则和相机抉择的综合运用有助于提高金融监管的有效性。在此基础上,进一步分析了宏观审慎监管与货币政策的协调机制。     

The Bank of Japan’s Monetary Policy Lacks a Strong Driving Force for Building Inflation Expectations

The Bank of Japan has been failing to create the 2% inflation expectations. This article presents the author’s views about why the Bank of Japan’s monetary easing measures have not led to achievement of the inflation target of 2%, as well as on measures required to achieve the 2% inflation (and base wage increases of over 3% which is the flip side of a 2% inflation). The major points of this article are outlined below.

First, while many Japanese economists pay little attention to importance of mild inflation, the achievement of mild inflation of 2% is vital in ensuring a stable macroeconomic environment. Its achievement would enable lowering of real interest rates (i.e., reducing the real interest rate to minus 2% as against the 0% nominal interest rate) in the situation where the nominal interest rates are drifting at the lower limit against a backdrop of various economic shocks. It would also facilitate reduction in real wages against the downwardly rigid nominal wages, thereby helping companies revive their businesses, and also facilitating adjustments in the overall economy.

Second, the reasons why the current Bank of Japan’s monetary easing measures have been unsuccessful in attaining the inflation target of 2% are as follows: 1) most of the Japanese do not understand the importance of mild inflation and so the specific content of the inflation target (achieving 2% inflation and base wage increases of over 3%) is not clearly shared; 2) on top of the fact that deflation/zero inflation has become rooted in Japan’s economy over the past two decades, Japan has never adopted a monetary policy that would anchor a mild inflation expectation of 2% (until 1990, the Bank of Japan’s primary task was to be mindful of curbing the accelerating cost-push inflation associated with wage growth); and 3) the current Bank of Japan’s monetary policy lacks a strong driving force for building inflation expectations to induce a change in people’s behavior.

Third, in order to build mild inflation expectations of 2% under such circumstances, it is important that the parties concerned with employer’s associations and labor unions become fully aware of this target so that the 2% inflation and base wage increases of over 3% becomes a code of conduct. On that basis, the government and Bank of Japan need to clearly demand substantial base wage increases with concrete numerical targets combined with the achievement of mild inflation towards the goal of building inflation expectations.

Fourth, I propose as the first step that, along with the economic measures recently taken, the government and the central bank either mediate or participate in a specific attempt to build a consensus between the employer’s associations and labor unions on achieving, in a neutral manner, inflation of 2% and base wage increases of (at least) 2%. The aim is to establish an inflation of 2% and base wage increases of over 3% as a new code of conduct shared by employer’s associations and labor unions through continued labor-management agreement.

It is desirable that mild inflation is attained gradually by stimulating aggregate demand continuously, if time and cost permit and if the international environment tolerates weak yen. However, the current economic environment would not allow it and the leeway to ease monetary policy has also been limited. It is also difficult to continue to boost aggregate demand through fiscal policy in a sustained manner against a backdrop of a low birthrate and aging population. Although successful achievement of mild inflation is not a panacea for all economic problems, unless we first achieve mild inflation and restore the function of monetary policy, we will not be able to implement the subsequent structural reforms of the labor markets, etc. or fiscal consolidation, which are both painful. And thus, the long-term economic outlook of Japan is dismal. The author strongly hopes that the Abe Cabinet and Bank of Japan under the leadership of Governor Kuroda implements a drastic regime change similar to the one launched by the Roosevelt administration, overcome deflation and achieve mild inflation, restore the function of monetary policy at the earliest possible time, and get on the path to a true revitalization of the Japanese economy.     

Resolving problems in the current international monetary system

The current international monetary system, characterized by floating rates among major currencies and by the US dollar's de facto role as the most important asset and transaction currency, exhibits several problems, says Nobuyuki Ichikawa of the Bank of Japan and a senior research fellow at IIPS. Under this system, resolving current account imbalances is difficult and exchange rates tend to fluctuate widely, harming economies, says Ichikawa. The dollar's de facto role, he argues, spares the US the incentive to coordinate its policies. He proposes that the yen and the mark supplement the dollar's role and analyzes the policies that Japan must adopt to achieve an ideal monetary system.     

从对俄政策调整看日本周边外交的困境

日俄关系在日本的周边外交中占有重要位置,近年来日本试图通过调整对俄政策彰显外交的自主性,改善周边外交状况,推出了一些新的政策措施。首先,日本建议绕开领土问题,扩大与俄罗斯的经济合作,为两国关系的彻底改善,也为最终解决领土问题奠定基础。其次,提出日俄在争议领土从事"共同经济活动"的建议,旨在与俄罗斯在争议领土进行"共同"开发,获得俄罗斯默认日本对争议领土具有主权权利,以便打开日俄关系的大门。第三,日本试图通过调整对俄政策改善周边关系,维护日本在周边外交中的有利地位。但是,日本的对俄政策依然受到内外因素限制,俄罗斯不会轻易在领土问题上让步,日本国内舆论也不可能支持政府在领土问题上让步,日俄之间也不可能在领土问题上达成共识,日俄之间的经济合作也很难脱离政治环境而有所扩大,特别是在日美同盟的框架下,日俄合作具有局限性,日本的周边外交仍然陷于困境之中。     

北伐期间日本的“满蒙观”与“九·一八”事变

北伐时期日本面对东北亦将被统一于中国中央政府之下的局势,出现了"满蒙放弃论"、"满蒙相对论"与"满蒙领有论"3种不同的政策主张。"满蒙放弃论"由于承认中国的民族主义觉醒、重视中国全局的经济利益而放弃了帝国主义,在近代日本对华政策史上留下了理智克己的一笔,但其力量有限未能成为主流。"满蒙相对论"虽也承认中国的民族主义觉醒并重视"经济扩张"手段,但却不能放弃帝国主义,最终沦为武力侵略者。"满蒙领有论"则奉行武力主义与强权主义,成为日本发动"九·一八"事变的直接策划者。     

日本农业发展的困境及政策调整

日本农业发展一直以高关税、高补贴著称,尽管政权更迭,这一政策取向基本保持不变。但是随着国内外政治经济环境的变化,其农业政策也在不断进行调整、修正和补充。近年来,日本出生率下降、人口老龄化问题日益严重,农业劳动力减少,加之耕地面积降低,以及跨太平洋战略经济伙伴关系(TPP)协议对农业影响的不确定性,日本农业政策亟需调整。2015年日本出台了新的《食品、农业与农村地区基本规划》,对今后5~10年的农业发展进行了规划。文章将以此为基础分析日本农业发展面临的困境,并简要介绍日本新的农业政策。     

The Problem of Macroeconomic Policy Crossroads:Explaining the Economic Policy Paradox of Switzerland and Japan in the 1990s

The 1990s, which can be characterized as a decade of disinflationary growth and austerity policies for most developed market democracies, was the decade of stagnant growth and policy complacency for Switzerland and Japan. Based on a framework that emphasizes the structure of policy choices available to governments at economic crossroads (or crisis), I show Switzerland and Japan are unique in that (a) disinflationary fundamentals spared the countries from speculative or inflationary pressure that required drastic responses and (b) the governments paradoxically maintained conservative economic policies despite room for expansion in order to continue policies based on the compromise between export and domestic sectors. The policy crossroads perspective stresses the importance of endogenous coalitions even in a world of economic globalization to explain concerted politics and conservative policies, and to assess the true impact of international finance on domestic changes.     

A new phase in Japanese economic cooperation

The merging of the Overseas Economic Cooperation Fund (OECF) and the ExportImport Bank of Japan to form the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) signals a new phase in Japanese economic cooperation. In this article, Akira Nishigaki, former president of the OECF , describes the role and significance of Japan's official development assistance and considers recent policy trends and issues. It is essential for the peace and prosperity of Japan and of the world as a whole, he says, that Japan maintain favorable relations of interdependence in the international community. In this spirit, he expresses his hope that in funding and implementing assistance the JBIC will continue to strengthen Japan's considerable contribution to the development of developing countries.     

Regime Shift in Japan?Two Decades of Neoliberal Reforms

This paper uses insights drawn from a paired comparison of Switzerland and Japan to give an account of the changes brought about by neoliberal policy adaptation in Japan over the last two decades. In Switzerland, notwithstanding further liberalization of the traditionally liberal regime prompted by the economic hardships of the 1990s, the referendum system helped the Social Democrats and unions to defend their rights and maintain the welfare schemes belatedly established in the 1980s. By contrast, the Japanese ruling party not only delayed liberalization of the protectionist state, but also aggravated fiscal problems by implementing a series of expansionary macroeconomic policies in the 1990s. Thus, without pursuing coherently such neoliberal policies as fiscal consolidation, privatization, or market deregulation, the Japanese state now faces a serious dilemma between the immediate need for structural reforms and the social unease that would result. Focusing on the reform packages of the Nakasone (1982‐87), Hashimoto (1996‐98), and Koizumi (2001‐) administrations, the paper reviews the sequences of reform policies as an interplay among economic challenges, actors’ aspirations, and institutional constraints, and further develops arguments about the segmented structure, peculiar to the Japanese state, that retards political changes.     

Moving beyond the paradox of macroeconomic stability in Uganda?

This article explores macroeconomic policies in Uganda in the wake of the global financial crisis and following the publication of the 2010 National Development Plan. Despite apparent changes in rhetoric regarding macroeconomic policies by the Ugandan authorities, the paper demonstrates how the commitment to conservative monetary and fiscal policies prevails. The article analyses how the persistently conservative macroeconomic policy stance has exacerbated the lack of economic transformation in the Ugandan economy. The resultant outcome has been a failure to absorb the fast-growing Ugandan labour force into productive and gainful employment. The case is therefore made for an alternative macroeconomic framework that puts public investment at its centre and which complements macroeconomic policies with suitable sector-specific and industrial policies.