俄罗斯的致命武器--核公文包

20世纪90年代初苏联解体,由于实行激进的经济政策,俄罗斯的经济陷入崩溃的边缘,综合国力下降,与原苏联超级大国相比不可同日而语。但是,当今的俄罗斯在一些重大国际问题的解决上仍然占有举足轻重的作用,那是因为一流的“核威慑”能力使俄罗斯的大国地位没有改变。核在俄对外政治、经济、军事和对内权力的争斗中成为致命武器。     

东南亚无核区前景透析

亚洲是世界核扩散形势最为严峻的地区。1998年南亚的印度和巴基斯坦进行核试验,成为事实上的核国家;2006年10月9日,东北亚的朝鲜又进行了首次地下核试验,成为世界上第8     

论苏联解体后的“核遗产”及核扩散危机

苏联解体后其庞大的核武库也一分为四,在核武器系统、核材料、核科学家及核技术等三个层次都出现了失控的核扩散危机。以美国为首的国际社会从各个方面给予了大力援助,使前苏联庞大的"核遗产"得到了妥善的处理。因苏联解体而一度出现的核国家增多的问题得以解决,核扩散危机也基本得到消除。这不仅有效地捍卫了国际核不扩散体制,而且在实践上也是对国际核不扩散机制的补充和发展,对人类社会的和平与安全也是重大的贡献。当朝鲜和伊朗核问题屡成危机而长期困扰国际社会时,我们重温这段历史,也具有深刻的现实意义。     

Indian Strategic Thinking About the Indian Ocean: Striving Towards Strategic Leadership

It is sometimes claimed that India has ambitions to become the leading power in the Indian Ocean. This article examines the different streams of Indian strategic thinking about the Indian Ocean and how they will likely contribute to future Indian strategic behavior. It argues that although many among its elite aspire for India to eventually become the leading power in the Indian Ocean, there is little conceptualization as to what India needs to do to achieve this. For several reasons, including an attachment to ideas of non-alignment and strategic autonomy, Indian strategic behavior in the Indian Ocean will likely continue to be relatively reactive and constrained.     

The Historical Rarity of Foreign-Deployed Nuclear Weapon Crises

What are the strategic costs of foreign-deployed nuclear weapons? Thus far, scholars have focused primarily on the possible benefits: deterring adversaries and reassuring allies. There is little scholarship on the costs side of the cost–benefit equation. This article evaluates one potential cost: that deployments generate crises. I argue that such deployments have, historically, rarely resulted in crises because few deployments generate the level of threat necessary for the target of the deployment to forcefully act. Crises are likely only in the rare situations when the deployment is to an area that the rival views as vital and the deployment threatens to embolden the deploying or host state. I examine all foreign nuclear deployments to support these claims. The results have implications for ongoing debates on the effects of nuclear weapons and US nuclear deployments abroad today.     

Theoretical Perspectives on Post-Migration Adaptation and Psychological Well-Being among Refugees: Towards a Resource-Based Model

Research on the psychological well-being of refugees has focusedon deficiencies within individuals either in terms of psychiatricsymptoms or feelings of distress. To achieve a more holisticview of the life experiences of refugees, we need to look atthe limitations of our current theoretical models. This articlecritically examines some of the major theoretical approachesthat have guided research on the psychological well-being ofrefugees: the medical model, the psychosocial stress model andBerry's (1997) ‘acculturation framework’. It goeson to examine Hobfoll's (2001) Conservation of Resources stresstheory, a model which has important implications for refugeeresearch. Drawing upon the models reviewed, the last sectionoutlines a conceptual framework for adaptation among refugees.At the heart of it lies the concept of resources. However, resourcesmust be understood in terms of the individual's needs, personalgoals and the demands he or she encounters. Each of these conceptsmust be examined in the context of the pre-migration, flightand post-migration phases. The additional concept of constraintson the use of or access to resources is particularly relevantto the post-migration phase. Such a conceptual toolkit couldprove especially useful in going beyond quantitative data topresent the human stories of refugees. It could also sensitizeresearchers to the impact of host societies on the well-beingof refugees.     

复杂多元化的全球核安全环境

随着全球化加速发展、大国关系保持基本稳定,全球性核战争威胁明显下降。然而,当今世界核扩散形势依然严峻,并有可能随着核电复兴浪潮的到来变得更加复杂;核恐怖主义威胁凸显,构建稳定核安全环境日益成为国际社会新的重点;导弹防御系统及外空武器化有可能造成国际战略态势的失衡和复杂化,并激发新领域的军备竞赛。改善全球核安全环境任重而道远,不仅有赖于核武器国家核裁军的推进和核战略的不断调整,还有赖于核领域国际法的健全和相关国际机制的不断增强,更需要和平、发展、合作国际潮流的不断巩固和推进。     

从新军事革命视角看美国的世界无核化战略

美国依仗其在新军事革命中的绝对领先优势,推出世界无核化战略,有利于确保其军事行动的主动权,维持其核威慑的有效性和灵活性,并能有效降低其核安全成本.但世界新军事革命的后发者为维护自身利益,增大了对核力量的倚重,成为美国实现世界无核化战略的巨大障碍,全球化、信息化也在客观上为弱者获取核力量提供了便利条件.由于美国的世界无核化战略自身矛盾重重,目前的核不扩散机制治标不治本,加之核威慑依然是维护国际战略稳定的重要一环,建立无核世界还只是人类遥远的梦想.     

大国崛起与世界体系变革——世界体系理论的视角

以沃勒斯坦和弗兰克为代表的世界体系论为大国崛起提供了一个极有价值的解释框架.世界体系论认为,中国崛起有其正当性.直到两个世纪前中国才失去在世界经济中的支配地位,当代中国崛起不过是历史上中国经济文化优势的复兴.理性地看,中国尚处于从世界体系的半边缘国家向中心国家位移的阶段,并且仍然深受世界体系中不平等劳动分工和不平等交换体系的制约,不可能对美国及西方世界构成威胁.同时,中国是在世界体系的社会化中崛起的,因而崛起后的中国不可能改变现存世界体系的性质、结构及其运行规律.因此,当前大国崛起的正当性还在于显著地增强世界多极化与国际关系民主化的力量.     

打造升级版中国—东盟自由贸易协议

本文介绍中国—东盟自由贸易区贸易和投资情况,提出打造升级版中国—东盟自由贸易协议的具体建议。     

亚洲与世界的核问题

本文研究亚洲地区的核问题,分析亚洲核扩散的安全动因与地区关联,并从世界范围内所有弃核事件中提取弃核规律,总结出成功弃核的两项必要条件,即体制更换导致安全观念变化与存在严重及可信的威胁.在理论上,这项抽象为弃核的充分条件预留空间,即为朝鲜未来可能的弃核保留可能,尽管这种可能并不十分现实.用同一规律比照,阻止伊朗发展核武则更具可能.     

西方经济衰退中的印度经济

自去年以来 ,一直强劲的美国经济进入了衰退状态 ,经过长期停滞后的日本经济也陷入之衰退之中 ,复苏不久的欧盟经济也出现下降局面 ,整个世界经济已处于衰退之中。受此影响 ,刚经过金融危机不久的东南亚各国经济增长大幅度下降 ,曾经遭受债务机打击的拉美各国经济也相继出现动荡 ,正在发展中的印度经济也受到一定程度影响。但是 ,在世界经济普遍衰退之中 ,印度经济仍保持了较快增长。印度何以能保持经济较快增长 ,印度的经验对发展中国家有何启示 ,这些正是本文所讨论的主要方面     

后西方世界秩序下的核武器与核威慑

全球国际社会正处于一个关键的变化时期。长期以来占主导地位的西方秩序在如下几个方面面临包围:霸权分散、全球资本主义危机日益加重、全球共同面临恐怖主义、大规模移民以及环境变化等带来的各种威胁。英国脱欧、特朗普当选美国总统这些事件表明,作为世界秩序核心的英语世界,已失去其主导力量。目前的发展格局将朝着多元化的后西方世界秩序发展。在此秩序下,没有超级大国,只有大国,并且这些大国大多比较自我封闭,因此,并不存在真正意义上的争夺全球霸权的现象。文化差异将比意识形态差异更为重要。文章首先将这一秩序的轮廓做一大致勾勒,然后探讨这一秩序对未来几十年核武器与核威慑所要扮演的角色来说将意味着什么。最为关注的着眼点是,全球格局从全球层面向区域层面的转变以及复杂的核扩散与核威慑态势。     

蒙古无核区问题探析

冷战后,蒙古放弃“一边倒”的从苏政策,谋求用政治和外交手段保障国家的独立和领土完整,建立无核区就是其中一项重要举措。蒙古无核区是国际社会中单个国家建立无核区的先例,受到很大的现实制约。5核国的态度始终是影响蒙古无核区建立的重要因素。1998年53/771)号决议的通过是蒙古在无核区问题上迈出的重要一步,但决议的贯彻落实并不会一帆风顺。蒙古无核区的建立对东北亚地区的稳定和安全以及核不扩散制的巩固都具有重大意义。     

Promoting Nuclear Disarmament and the Non-Proliferation Process,Safeguarding World Peace

Peace is the shared aspiration and permanent pursuit of the human society. In the long river of human history, peace has brought prosperity and progress to humanity, but at times, it has deserted us and has become a distant desire or even dream of human race. There are different threats and challenges to peace. Among them, there is the nuclear weapon which has become the Sword of Damocles hanging over us and letting people living in the horror of nuclear weapon ever since its first test of bombing.     

Towards security governance as a critical tool: a conceptual outline

This article argues that security governance can and should be reframed as a critical tool that enables us to understand and reappraise concrete practices of security provision. Security governance needs to move beyond the functional mapping of different governing arrangements and the presumption that security governance leads to effective and legitimate problem-solving in a quasi-automatic manner. In this article, we propose a framework that identifies the essential characteristics of security governance and turns them into critical questions with the aim to reveal persisting frictions and dilemmas. First, we trace the rise of security governance as concept and practice over the past decade and identify its central characteristics with regard to prerequisites, structures and consequences. Second, we reframe the core characteristics of security governance into critical questions and thereby develop an understanding of security governance as a critical tool. Finally, we illustrate the relevance of this approach with examples from EU security governance.     

日本强震及核危机对世界经济的影响分析

地震、海啸、核安全问题接连发生,日本正在经历史上罕见的"大创伤"。强震、海啸、核危机对日本经济的负面冲击明显大于阪神地震。日本地震后的灾后重建与阪神地震时的财政环境明显不同,地震提高了日本政府的违约风险和隐含的主权债务风险。但对世界经济整体而言,日本大地震不会影响全球经济复苏的步伐。虽然全球股市企稳回升,但"核阴云"笼罩亚太、大宗商品呈现先抑后扬的态势,加之受利比亚战争及发达国家的量化宽松货币政策等外围因素影响,日本大地震使全球金融市场未来面临诸多不确定性。日本地震对中国经济影响有限,灾后重建对我国出口及产业发展带来有利契机。