美国政治中的人民币升值问题

人民币升值自2003年2月以来成为国内外的热点问题,其原因与其说是经济的,不如说是政治的.本文从美国政治角度探讨了人民币升值问题是如何变成一个问题以及该问题的实质.     

日本鼓吹"人民币升值论"的原因及影响

本文指出日本是"人民币升值论"的主要炮制者与贩卖者,并从四个方面分析日本鼓吹"人民币升值论"的意图,进而论述日本鼓吹"人民币升值论"在国际社会所造成的恶劣影响.     

美国压人民币升值的意图、前景及对策

中期选举前后,美国政府和国会集中向中国政府施压,人民币升值压力加大,自9月份以来升值幅度达2%以上。10月15日,美国政府再次推迟公布主要贸易国经济和汇率政策情况报告,暂时缓解了中国被列为"汇率操纵国"之忧,但人民币升值压力并未得到缓解。当前人民币无大幅升值基础,且人民币升值对中国经济危害巨大,因而应在当前国内外经济形势还十分复杂的情况下,继续维持人民币汇率的相对稳定,并采取具体措施缓解当前日益增大的人民币升值压力。     

试论20世纪50年代中期中泰关系中西双版纳傣族自治区问题的缘起

1953年中国云南省西双版纳傣族自治区的成立曾被泰国强指为中国蓄意对泰国进行侵略的证据,由此引发了20世纪50年代中期中泰关系中的西双版纳傣族自治区问题.实际上,这一问题只不过是美国、泰国统治集团和台湾当局出于各自的政治利益和政治需求共同制造的一个谣言.这一问题的产生,受到了体系与单元层面因素的双重影响,它既受制于两极国际体系,与20世纪50年代东亚冷战的国际格局基本吻合,也与中泰两国的国内政治等单元层面的因素息息相关,可以说是冷战国际政治和中泰两国国内政治相互结合的产物.傣—泰民族跨越国界的分布状况是这一问题产生的客观基础,而体系与单元层面上的各种政治利益和政治需求则是这一问题产生的深层动因.     

美国对华技术出口政策的非经济功用

本文考察了美国对华技术出口政策及其利益基础的历史变动,从美国的国家安全利益、国内政治因素和美国对中国内政的干涉三个方面剖析美国对华技术出口政策的非经济功用,探讨了这一政策与中美政治关系的互动关系.     

中日东亚货币合作——国际关系视角的分析

当今国际政治经济格局与美元霸权是东亚货币合作的大背景,在这一背景下,东亚货币合作有着更深刻的国际利益分配的潜在内涵,而不只是单纯的区域货币合作问题.美、日、中三方的利益关切共同推动和影响着东亚货币合作的进程.日元和人民币都不具备独立作为东亚主导货币的条件,东亚各国或地区的经济发展水平差异较大,货币合作的政治基础比较薄弱等现实条件,促使合作成为中日双方的最佳选择,其中,中日双方政治互信的改善对东亚货币合作尤为重要.     

美国的族裔游说与移民爱国主义——以阿裔美国人的游说为例

冷战结束后,族裔游说在美国政治中的影响力日益上升;这一趋势将因奥巴马当选而得到强化.美国学术界对族裔游说的观念可分为积极和消极两派,消极派占据上风.消极派认为族裔游说有损美国国家利益,质疑为其母国利益游说的族裔的爱国主义.因此,在不同处境下的族裔游说团体要么选择消极游说--处境不利时首先致力于证明自身的爱国主义,要么选择积极游说--无须担忧爱国主义被民族主义化的风险时正面促进其母国国家利益.阿裔美国人游说的发展过程就是经历了消极游说和积极游说两个阶段的一个典型.     

中美经济相互依赖关系对美国汇率政治的制约

尽管美国早在20世纪90年代初就开始在人民币汇率问题上指责中国,但是人民币汇率在1995~2002年期间并不是美国政府对华经济政策中的核心问题。此后中美两国人民币汇率之争的背后,是汇率政治即美国政府、国会以及相关利益集团之间在汇率政策制定过程中的博弈。文章认为,日趋紧密的中美经济相互依赖关系在一定程度制约了美国的汇率政治,证明了在非对称相互依赖关系中,也存在着依赖较小的一方无法凭借其在经济相互依赖中的有利地位,通过使用经济手段,将经济影响力转化为政治影响力,进而对依赖较大的一方形成权力的情形。而导致这一结果出现的根本原因在于中国是美国国债的最大海外持有者和美元本位制的重要支柱。但是这种制约作用也是有限的,且具有双刃剑的作用。为此,中美双边经济关系要从根本上摆脱美国汇率政治的制约,需要通过结构性改革、人民币国际化以及加强双边金融合作等途径。     

“内奸”奥巴马

我们不得不佩服美国权贵的高超统治艺术,靠制造恐惧统治已经是一种很落后的方法了。如不发生意外,2012年美国总统大选将由奥巴马与共和党的罗姆尼对决。罗姆尼是华尔街的人,他本人就是靠资本市场起家的资本-政治两栖精英,美国中产阶级的天敌——这点已无争议。另一个已无争议的是,奥巴马总统任内也没有大力维护美国中产阶级的利益。     

美国对伊拉克库尔德问题政策的演变

随着美国在中东利益的扩大和深化,库尔德问题在第二次世界大战结束后开始正式进入美国的外交考量。基于伊拉克特殊的战略地位和局势演变,库尔德问题在美国外交中发挥的作用更大且更具有长期性。以第一次世界大战后美国提出"民族自决"原则为起点,1991年海湾战争为关键节点,库尔德禁飞区设立为重要标志,美国对伊拉克库尔德问题的政策可分为海湾战争前和海湾战争后两大时期。美国与伊拉克库尔德人之间的关系经历了重要的转变,但这并没有改变美国在该问题上所采取的实用主义立场,因为伊拉克库尔德问题本质上只是美国处理和伊拉克及中东关系中的一个部分。美国根据自身的国内政治状况、国际战略、中东利益、对伊拉克政策和地区形势的具体变化,不断调整在库尔德问题上的政策,谋求美国在中东的霸权地位。     

Personal Politics and Being British: Political Rhetoric,Democracy and their Consequences in Colonial New South Wales

This paper argues that although our understanding of politics in colonial New South Wales in the period after 1856 has increased in recent times there is little appreciation of the political rhetoric employed to justify those politics. It contends that the key to understanding that rhetoric is an appreciation that politics was not understood in terms of institutional design but focused rather on the quality of political leaders. In particular, as exemplified by the case of Henry Parkes, it involved being British and being able to work British institutions. This emphasis on personal politics, rather than institutional matters such as the creation of checks and balances, helped to shape the nature of democratic institutions in Australia. In particular it encouraged a form of democracy that concentrated power. The refusal of members of the Legislative Council to oppose the Influx of Chinese Restriction Bill is an early indication of the consequences of that form of democracy.     

Au Retour a Gramsci: Reflections on Civil Society,Political Society and the State in South Asia

Abstract

This article critically analyses Partha Chatterjee’s recent concepts of civil society and political society, showing that their binary character is derived from a culturalist conflation of capitalism with modernity. In turn, modernity becomes equated with a naturalised liberal democratic state, precluding any appreciation of how resistance can and does shape the character of the state. Second, it compares Chatterjee’s categories of civil and political society to those of Gramsci, arguing that a return to classical Gramscian categories, along with an appreciation of the impact of colonialism on state forms, can provide studies of resistance with a richer and more elegant understanding of social change from below in contemporary India.     

美国对华决策政治系统及要求

自 2 0世纪 70年代以来特别是冷战结束以后 ,美国外交决策系统由原来的相对集中和由总统占垄断地位向一个开放和多元的系统转变。本文使用政治的分析方法考察了美国对华决策系统的结构以及各个要求的作用和影响 ,并提出通过影响国会、利益集团和媒体的要求进而影响美国对华政策的观点。     

Situating the European Union within South Africa's foreign policy calculus

ABSTRACT

This article reviews the importance of the EU–South Africa Strategic Partnership in South Africa's foreign policy calculations after a decade in existence. While political differences have been open for all to see in cases such as Zimbabwe and South Africa's notice of withdrawal from the International Criminal Court, the enhanced political dialogue is important in ensuring that the partners have a greater appreciation of the complexities faced by foreign policy-makers on both sides. This study is thus interested in uncovering why political relations have lagged behind the economic and social aspects of the relationship. After assessing South Africa's foreign policy interests towards the EU, it then reviews where the political fault lines have been located since the adoption of the Joint Action Plan before identifying areas of cooperation in meeting South Africa’s interests as stated in the 2011 white paper on foreign policy.     

Does Associational Involvement Spur Political Integration? Political Interest and Participation of Three Immigrant Groups in Zurich

This article looks at the determinants of the political integration of migrants at the local level, focusing on two dimensions of political integration: political interest (attitudinal dimension) and political participation (behavioral dimension). Based on a representative survey among Italians, Kosovars, and Turks in the city of Zurich, we tested the thesis advanced by the social capital approach which posits a link between membership in voluntary associations and political integration. Our findings suggest that membership in voluntary associations favors the political integration of the three groups under investigation. Furthermore, we find an impact of both ethnic and cross‐ethnic membership. However, while the effect of associational involvement on the behavioral dimension of political integration is strong and consistent across national groups, the attitudinal dimension displays a weaker and differential impact. Political attitudes and socio‐demographic characteristics play a less important role, except for the effect of the former on political interest, and also tend to have a differential impact on the three groups.     

The 1968 Movement Revisited: Education and the Distinction in Values,Political Interest and Political Participation in West Germany

The aim of this paper is to take a look at the 1968 generation in West Germany about 40 years after the 1968 events. Whether there was a 1968 generation in the narrow sense of the word will be explored. While comparing the 1968 generation with earlier and later cohorts, political interest, political activity and (postmaterialist) values will be analysed. Education will be theorised as a main mechanism that distinguishes the 1968 generation from earlier generations. Quantitative analyses will be performed employing a temporal perspective and including age, period and cohort effects – so that socialisation as well as individual change over the life cycle and macro influences can be taken into account. The results show a strong influence of education on political interest, political activity and postmaterialism. Therefore, what is called the ‘1968 generation’ only applies to the more highly educated people of this generation.     

Power and Conflict in the Swiss Political Elite: An Aggregation of Existing Network Analyses

Since Kriesi's (1980) pioneering work no study has attempted to provide an overall picture of power configuration among the Swiss political elite. To fill this gap we aggregate recent network analyses carried out in various policy domains. Based on meta-hypotheses regarding the likely effects of the contextual changes that have taken place during the last thirty years, we compare the structure of the Swiss political elite existing in the 1970s to that of the last decade with respect to reputational power, collaboration and conflict. Our results suggest that important transformations have indeed occurred. Thus, both political parties and some specific state bodies could increase their power, whereas most interest groups have lost some. While the internationalization of politics has overall had the expected effects with respect to the power structure and to conflict among political parties, it did not lead to the hypothesized, new conflict among interest groups.     

Dialectics of industrialization in Indonesia

This essay investigates how the degeneration of state socialist regimes and the transition to market-Leninist political economies in China and Vietnam have shaped institutional arrangements governing welfare and its stratification effects. Engaging recent theoretical literature one welfare regimes, the article explores how the evolution of specific combinations of political and economic institutions in China and Vietnam has affected the production and reproduction of welfare and stratification. The common assumption that welfare regimes reflect the structured interests of dominant political and economic actors and thus serve to reproduce that regime is found to invite an excessively static perspective. Instead this essay argues that welfare regimes and stratification in contemporary China and Vietnam require an appreciation of their properties under state-socialism and how specific paths of extrication affected their degeneration and subsequent development under a new form of political economy. The essay also probes the significance of observed differences in China and Vietnam’s political structure in light of suggestions that Vietnam’s more pluralistic political system has made its welfare regime more redistributive than China’s. An alternative perspective suggests China’s wealth obviates the significance of such differences.