俄罗斯民主化时代的政治腐败--再论"民主不是万应灵丹"

苏联解体后以叶利钦为首的民主改革派所推行的“民主化加私有化”改革,非但没有得到如民主崇拜者所料想的那种“清除政治腐败”、“倡行社会公正”和“振兴国家经济”的效果,反而使俄罗斯陷入了比苏联时期有过之无不及的政治腐败;其结果,导致黑社会组织横行无忌,社会公正被藐视和践踏,经济发展捉襟见肘,国际地位一落千丈的窘境。这种情形不啻是对“民主万能”神话的辛辣嘲讽,其原因有必要引起学术界的反思。     

印尼政党体制制度化与民主发展

有关政党体制与民主发展关系的研究,经历了从类型学到制度化的视角转移。对处于民主转型和巩固过程中的国家而言,政党体制的制度化程度至关重要。本文在既有研究的基础上,归纳出政党与国家关系、政党的社会基础、政党间竞争模式、政党的组织水平四项政党体制制度化的衡量标准。按照上述标准,当前印尼政党体制的制度化仍处于较低水平,低制度化的政党体制在合法性与有效性两个方面阻碍了印尼民主政治的持续发展。     

2012年美国总统选举的形势和特点

2012年美国总统选举将于2012年11月6日举行。民主、共和两党分别推出现任总统奥巴马和马萨诸塞州州长罗姆尼参与角逐。目前选战已经进入白热化,两人使出浑身解数展开唇枪舌战,至今选情仍不明朗。盖洛普在9月19～21日的民调显     

政治发展理论与东南亚政治发展的再思考——以印尼与菲律宾为例

发展政治学作为政治学研究的一大热点,已经形成一套较为完整的理论研究体系.本文结合既有的政治发展理论,以印尼和菲律宾为例,从政治发展的目标、发展道路的选择以及影响发展的因素三个方面,对东南亚国家的政治发展实践进行了理论剖析,并以此检验政治发展理论的一些分析概念和框架.从历史发展角度看,尽管东南亚国家在民主与威权发展道路上有过多次摇摆,但随着社会经济的发展,选择民主化发展道路在这些国家巴达成共识.而非政府组织(NGO)与公民社会的兴起是研究东南亚政治发展时需要特别注意的现象.     

印尼民主转型和民主化软着陆

本文讨论1998年以来印尼民主转型的进程,分析了民主化的成果以及为此而付出的代价.文章接着考察了印尼民主化过程中出现的对强人权威政权的怀念,对大选结果中反映出来的强人政治回归的现象进行了分析.最后,作者对印尼能否突破"民主--专制--再民主--再专制"的怪圈,实现民主化的软着陆提出了自己的见解.     

试析宗教对韩国总统选举的影响

韩国宪法虽然确立了"政教分离"的原则,但现实中宗教因素渗透到了政治中,并对总统选举造成了明显的影响。总统候选人的宗教信仰、选民的宗教信仰以及宗教团体在选举过程中的宣传游说,都影响到总统选举的最终投票结果。目前,宗教因素在韩国总统选举中已经由一个"独立变量",发展为一个"非独立变量",但其影响将长期存在。     

韩国的地方选举和民主巩固

民主巩固理论是用来解释第三波民主化浪潮中,部分新型民主国家民主制度的倒退或进一步深化发展的重要理论框架,其有广义和狭义之分。从狭义的角度看,执政党和总统和平轮替的次数往往被看做民主巩固程度的重要指标;从广义角度看,地方自治和作为地方自治核心组成部分的地方选举的代表性和独立性程度被看做判断民主巩固与否的重要指标。韩国是第三波民主化浪潮以后民主发展比较成功的国家,本文试图以地方选举的独立性和代表性程度来判断韩国的民主巩固程度。     

法国戴党新总统萨科奇及其当选的基本原因

法国2007年总统选举是法兰西第五共和国历史上一次具有继往开来意义的重要选举,在此次选举中,法兰西人民运动联盟总统候选人萨科奇脱颖而出,当选为总统。本文从法国政局和政党演变的角度出发,指出萨科奇之所以当选,主要有以下几个方面的原因:萨科奇是战后出生的新一代杰出的戴党政治家;是此次总统选举中实力最强和民意指数最高的总统候选人;他提出了一个比较可信的同过去"平静决裂"的竞选纲领并最终获得了戴党领袖希拉克的支持;还得益于法政局"右强左弱"的力量对比。     

政党的素质与民主政治的发展--从泰国政党的历史与现状看其民主政治的前景

泰国的政党曾长期处于非法或半合法的状态,政党自身又存在着如无长远规划、聚散无常、无明确纲领、无有效的基层组织、党内关系完全是庇护关系、无法吸引一流人才等弊病,使得泰国的政党至今仍未成为真正意义上的政治力量.政党在相当长的时期内仍将处于为一党私利而争斗的恶性循环状态,在执政中必然是"政党行为大于政府行为".政党的这种素质将在相当大的程度上制约泰国民主政治的发展.     

印尼式民主政治的文化解读

印尼是否是真正的民主国家,至今仍众说纷纭。尤其是2009—2010年期间,正当苏西洛政府意欲大展第二任期宏图之际,国内发生的一系列重大政治事件及其进展引起舆论高度关注,各种不满声音纷纷指向苏西洛政府,认为事态处理方式非民主。笔者希望借助对爪哇文化的粗浅了解,对印尼政府对上述事件的处理方式进行解读,笔者以为印尼的民主政治深受爪哇传统价值观和思维方式影响。     

民主在东南亚的前提条件和发展趋势

20世纪50、60年代民主政体在东南亚国家的实行均以流产而告终,威权主义代替民主政体对东南亚国家的稳定和发展起到了巨大的作用.本文认为"民主"之树移植容易,但是开花结果却需要许多前提条件.本文从经济、文化和社会基础三个角度分析东南亚国家实行"民主"所需的相应条件.并对"民主"在东南亚的发展趋势作了简短预测.     

General Election 2015 in Singapore: What Social Media Did and Did not Do

Abstract

The online buzz leading up to the 2015 Singapore general election (GE2015) favoured opposition parties and personalities, encouraging perceptions that the opposition would garner more votes than in 2011. Instead, the ruling People’s Action Party won and saw an increase in their vote share from 60.1% in 2011 to 69.9%. What role, then, did social media play in this election? This study shows that, against prevailing assumptions, GE2015 was not a social media election. Through an online survey of 2,000 respondents conducted after polling day, it was found that mainstream media and their online counterparts were used most frequently and were trusted more as sources of information about the election. Online and offline political participation was also low. However, social media users were more interested in election issues, were more likely to discuss politics with others and participated more in offline political activities than non-users.     

Argentina's Landmark 2003 Presidential Election: Renewal and Continuity

This article provides an analysis of the political and socioeconomic context of the April 2003 presidential elections, focusing particularly on the campaign platforms of candidates, the outcome of the first round and the election's consequences for the party system. The election's results were far reaching in many respects. Argentina's longstanding two-party system came to an end with the virtual vanishing of the Radical party (UCR) at the national level. An evolved political culture resulted in new, more rigorous criteria for the selection of candidates. Finally, new political parties (MNR and ARI) emerged that could conceivably improve the quality of democratic governance in the future. In short, the 2001–2002 crisis fostered a significant degree of political renewal. Contrary to some predictions, however, the societal rejection of political parties did not result in either the complete demolition of the party system or the wholesale renovation of the political class. In particular, the Peronist party showcased its staying power and uncanny ability to adapt to new political environments.     

当代俄罗斯政党财政及其对选举的影响——以第七届国家杜马选举为例

《俄罗斯联邦联邦会议国家杜马代表选举法》对选举基金有专门规定:政党参加选举一定要建立政党选举基金.政党选举基金全部经费支出最高不超过7亿卢布.政党的自有资金不可超过选举基金限额的50％,即3.5亿卢布,对公民和法人捐赠的条件和金额也有相应限制.通过对参加第七届俄罗斯国家杜马选举的全部14个政党的选举财政情况进行研究可得出以下结论:选举基金的支出与第七届俄罗斯国家杜马选举结果没有直接的因果关系;意识形态因素对杜马选举发挥着重要作用,"统一俄罗斯"党和俄罗斯联邦共产党这两个党具有更多的选举竞争力;在第七届国家杜马选举中,最终获得进入俄国家杜马资格的4个主要政党除俄罗斯联邦共产党之外,都有募集到直接的政治献金,这些政治献金在俄罗斯是合法的;进入国家杜马中的政党在印刷宣传品方面的选举支出所发挥的作用要比其在电视宣传方面的选举支出发挥的作用大.     

Democracy in Latin America: Issues of Governance in the Southern Cone

This article explores academic debates on transitions and democratic development, and outlines ideas relating to the governance issues considered by the papers in this special section. It presents a discussion of recent debates on democracy and transition in Latin America and concludes on the need to conceptualise the state in the region after the return to democracy. In so doing, it analyses issues of governance and highlights the role of the political class in building a democratic state.     

New Perspectives on Malaysia and a Rising China: Essays Honouring Lee Poh Ping

ABSTRACT

This article introduces the feature collection titled Malaysia and China in a Changing Region: Essays in Honour of Professor Lee Poh Ping. As well as introducing the six articles in the collection, this article pays tribute to Professor Lee, who passed away in late 2016. The article links some of the key themes of Professor Lee’s research and publications to the themes of the six articles, each of which is concerned with the rise of China and the various impacts this has for Malaysia’s political economy.     

The Janus‐Face of Negociation Democracy. The Effects of Consensus Democracy,Direct Democracy and Decentralization on State Intervention in Swiss Cantons

Dieser Beitrag analysiert die Varianzen der quantifizierbaren Staatstätigkeit in den 26 Schweizer Kantonen der 1980er und 1990er Jahre. Im Mittelpunkt der erklärenden Grssen stehen dabei Formen der Verhandlungsdemokratie, insbesondere der Konkordanz, dezentraler Entscheidungsstrukturen und direktdemokratischer Beteiligungsrechte. Wir zeigen, dass die Erweiterung des Konzeptes der Verhandlungsdemokratie auf weitere Staatsorgane neben der Regierung zur analytischen Unschärfe fhrt, da die verschiedenen Ausprägungen der politischen Machtteilung mit unterschiedlichen Wirkungen auf den Umfang des ffentlichen Sektors verbunden sind. Während die Konkordanz im Sinne der parteifrmigen Organisation politischer und sozialer Konflikte tendenziell die staatliche Intervention begnstigt, zgeln konstitutionelle Vetospieler die Staatstätigkeit, indem direktdemokratische Mitwirkung und dezentrale Machtteilung dem Staat Fesseln auf der Einnahmen‐und Ausgabenseite anlegen.     

Asian Contributions on Democratic Dignity and Responsibility: Rizal,Sukarno and Lee on Guided Democracy

Democracy as political doctrine has its fair share of controversies over the adjudication of rights and the prioritization of the individual over the community. These debates have largely derived from its western genesis. The current stage of global development has however supplied many non-western perspectives on democracy which suggest that any consensus over an identifiable body of democratic thought is likely to witness more sub-diversity than ever before. This article argues that contemporary Asian thinkers on the philosophy of government have a valuable contribution to make to democratic discourse notwithstanding the clichés of the Asian Values debate of the 1990s. By performing a sampled reading of José Rizal, Sukarno and Lee Kuan Yew on their diverse interpretations of guided democracy in a nationalistic context, it will be shown that these three modern Southeast Asian political thinkers would offer some tentative Asian insights on the democracy of dignity and of responsibility.

Back to a Predominant Party System: The November 2015 Snap Election in Turkey

Abstract

Turkey’s snap parliamentary election in November 2015 took place in an environment of growing political violence and terrorism resulting from the renewal of the Kurdish conflict in the southeast and two major suicide bombings carried out by Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). Presenting the coalition arithmetic, the article first examines the failure to form a government after the previous election five months earlier. It then examines the campaign for the November election, including party strategies, key issues and the role of the media, before analysing the results and the election winners and losers. In restoring a parliamentary majority for the Adalet ve Kalk?nma Partisi (Justice and Development Party – AKP) that has governed Turkey continuously for the past 13 years, the November election marked the basic continuity of Turkey’s predominant party system.     

试析日本的东南亚研究

日本的东南亚研究目前走在世界前列.日本的东南亚研究在二战以前已经开始,至今已有了长期的积累,取得了令人瞩目的成果.日本的东南亚研究风格严谨,重视微观研究并强调田野调查的重要性,尤其注重资料的收集.本文以京都大学东南亚研究所以及民间组织东南亚学会的杂志为例进行分析,以了解日本东南亚研究的现状.