The Travails of Balance of Power Theory: The United States in the Middle East

Balance of power is a ubiquitous concept in theory and practice, but it is rarely tested. This study tests balance of power and balance of threat theories in the case of U.S. intervention in the Persian Gulf. Propositions are derived from the theories and from a conceptualization that treats external states as facing potentially competing and contradictory pressures to balance at the global and regional levels as well as against power and threat. Evidence strongly disconfirms balance of power theory, while balance of threat theory is partly confirmed. Conditions are identified that make balance of threat theory more robust against the historical period explored and possibly in other cases.     

影响中东局势的大国因素

长期以来，美国、俄罗斯、欧盟、日本以及印度等大国高度关注中东局势并在该地区展开竞争。各大国在中东既有斗争与竞争，也有协调与合作。大国在中东活动的两面性一直存在，过于强调竞争或过于看重彼此协调与合作都是片面的。     

核危机凸显伊朗的中东大国地位

波斯文明内核、伊斯兰精神气质、独特的政治地缘和丰富的油气等资源增强了伊朗外交的国际资本。伊拉克萨达姆政府倒台以后,如何处理伊朗问题,特别是伊朗核问题,成为对美国及其欧洲盟国的重要考验。伊朗强硬派“平民总统”内贾德上台以来,伊朗与西方国家的关系中存在诸多变数,同时伊朗积极开展对东方大国外交,对地区形势乃至大国关系都将产生重大影响。     

Balance of Power Politics and the Rise of China: Accommodation and Balancing in East Asia

Realists agree that great powers balance the military power of rising powers, but there is little agreement regarding secondary-state responses to rising powers. First, there are differences regarding whether secondary states balance or accommodate rising powers. Second, there are differences among realists regarding the distinct roles of economic and military factors in secondary-state alignment policies. Third, some scholars argue that state alignments are not necessarily determined by realist variables, but can reflect preferences shaped by intentions, historical experiences, or cultural influences. This paper addresses these issues in balance-of-power theory. Its empirical focus is the impact of the rise of China on secondary-state alignments in East Asia. After examining the complex mix of China's military and economic reach in East Asia, it concludes that secondary-state behavior is sensitive to local variation in the great power capabilities and that secondary states tend to accommodate rather than balance rising powers. It further concludes that economic capabilities alone are insufficient to generate accommodation, so that the political-economy literature should reexamine cases of apparent secondary-state accommodation to economic dependency, sensitive to the presence of military vulnerability on the part these secondary states to proximate great powers. These conclusions suggest that there is nothing sui generis or culturally-determined in East Asian international politics and that realism can explain alignment behavior among East Asian states as well as it does among European states. Research on East Asia's response to China's rise that is sensitive to intra-regional variations in U.S. and Chinese military and economic capabilities also challenges assumptions of an emerging Chinese regional hegemony or of a costly region-wide U.S.-China competition.     

半岛电视台:镜头对准中东热点

如同海湾战争确定了CNN在新闻界的地位一样，美国对阿富汗塔利班的军事打击也造就了另一个媒体明星，它就是卡塔尔的半岛电视台。在2001年10月7日美国开始对阿富汗塔利班实施军事打击后，西方电视台的战况报道，多是……     

东亚合作发展概况及成果

今年1月13-15日，东盟系列峰会（东盟、“10＋3”、“10＋1”、中日韩首脑会议）及第二届东亚峰会在菲律宾中部城市宿务举行。该系列峰会本应在2006年12月中旬举行，但因台风等因素的干扰被推迟。本届系列峰会是在地区国家关系缓和区域经济合作加速大趋势的推动下召开的，取得了显著成果，进一步凸显地区经济与安全合作的新趋势。     

当前中东局势及中国与中东关系

近年来,中东局势持续动荡,出现了一些新的特点和趋势,即多点地区冲突同时爆发,互相呼应,互相影响;地区政治力量出现新的消长变化。政治伊斯兰势力上升,传统大国地位下降;美国对中东新战略严重受挫。在可预测的未来,中东热点问题将持续成为地区动荡之源。其中伊拉克政局的走向将对未来中东形势的发展产生重要影响。伊斯兰势力与世俗政权之间对权力与影响力的争夺将更趋激烈,地区内激进势力将更趋活跃,极端思潮蔓延,并有向地区外扩展的趋势。同时,美国在中东影响力下降,难以完成对中东地区进行民主改造的使命。国际和中东形势的变化,使中国和中东国家分别面临新的不同的国际环境,对中东和阿拉伯国家的内政、外交产生深刻影响,也给中国带来新的机遇和挑战。     

中东民主变革与美国的大中东倡议

20世纪八九十年代之交 ,推动中东地区的民主化一度成为美国政策的主要目标。然而 ,民主化可能意味着伊斯兰化这样一种可怕前景有效地吓阻了美国在中东推进政治变革的热情。九一一事件之后 ,中东的民主化重回美国对中东外交的议事日程 ,不仅如此 ,美国似乎把改变政府、民主变革、国家安全这样一些概念联系在一起 ,试图通过一项被称为大中东倡议的综合行动计划 ,实现对中东、乃至整个穆斯林世界的民主化改造。美国的大中东倡议有可能使中东地区陷入另一场动乱之中。     

The Middle East: Learning from the Past

The effort to bring peace to the Middle East has been an almost century long process. Legions of soldiers, politicians, and diplomats have attempted the political equivalent of transmuting dross into gold. They have failed; none more comprehensively than President Bill Clinton and his Middle East interlocutors. Despite personal energy, intelligence, and creativity, U.S. efforts failed. After a stretch of benign/malign neglect, Washington again is venturing into the swamp by sponsoring renewed Israeli-Palestinian negotiations. There are learnable lessons from what has been (mis)managed in the past. The question remains whether the United States will take counsel from them.     

Middle East conflicts

Charles D. Smith, Palestine and the Arab‐Israeli Conflict, third edition. Basingstoke: Macmillan, 1996. Pp.xx + 358, maps, index, chronology, biblio, notes. £14.99 (paper). ISBN 0–312–12817–7 (cloth); ‐09649–6 (paper).

Edgar O'Ballance, The Palestinian Intifada. Basingstoke: Macmillan, 1998. Pp.xxii + 252, maps, index, chronology, biblio. £42.50. ISBN 0–312–21172–4.

Edgar O'Ballance, Islamic Fundamentalist Terrorism 1979–95. Basingstoke: Macmillan, 1997. Pp.xx + 228, index, chronology, biblio. £42.50. ISBN 0–333–65472–2.     

China and the Middle East

The exchanges between China and the Middle East are profound. In 500 B. C, the world-famous Silk Road was built. In 700 B. C, there were two great empires on the Asian Continent.     

Middle East Transformation from the Perspective of U.S. Middle East Policy

The Middle East, one of the most turbulent regions in the world, has embarked on another round of chaos since America waged the Iraq war in 2003, new players vying to fill the power vacuum, entrenched hatred multiplying with new wounds. Ecstasy turned into agony as Americans watched the war unfold. U.S. think tank researchers and politicians, reflecting on the war and U.S. Middle East policy, urged the Bush administration to adjust the policy and break the strategic impasse. Under grave pressure from home and abroad, the White House finally began to respond. Against this backdrop, the year 2007 witnessed the most intensive and extensive shift of U.S. Middle East policy in recent years and a drastic return of realism in America＇s foreign policy. These policy changes rippled in the Middle East, precipitating policy changes of other powers and transformation of the geopolitical landscape. The Middle East, as we can see, is heading toward a new age of pain and growth.     

2005年的中东形势

2005年,中东仍是世界关注的热点地区。其中巴以冲突、伊拉克重建、伊朗核问题、黎巴嫩与叙利亚危机此起彼伏,与美国在中东推行民主改造战略共同构成了中东形势的主页。一、巴以冲突趋于缓和,但双方内部危机增大2005年,对于命运多舛的巴勒斯坦和以色列来说既充满希望,也不乏失望     

中东:美国霸权的陷阱

美国对中东政策的非理性正在破坏它已维持数十年的同盟关系 ,正在更大范围内激起对美国的仇视与不满 ,美国的政策还使中东所有的合法政府感到无所适从 ,甚至危机四伏。中东地区的国际关系正在酝酿新的变化 ,一些国家的政策及行为模式也将面临调整。一场新的动乱正在中东地区生成 ,由于这场动乱由美国直接导演 ,而且美国自己也深陷其中 ,因此 ,这场动乱很可能成为美国霸权的陷阱。     

EU Power Balance

Intense clashes of interests and collusion of ideas sprang up incessantly among nations over upward sovereignty transfer, interests distribution and maintenance of parity among partners in the course of economic integration. Disparities in size, territory, national strength and development level conceivably often led to tensions and even crises over power distribution. So EU history can be described as one of crises or crisis settlement through reaching a new equilibrium, a significant process for sustained EU stability.……     

全球化与中东:挑战与应对

全球化是一种必然趋势.面对这种趋势,中东国家,尤其是阿拉伯国家越来越深刻地认识到,只有走区域经济合作的路才是迈向全球化的现实途径.本文就中东所面临的全球化挑战以及中东的区域一体化等诸多问题展开论述.     

中东地区宗教中的少数派

中东地区是世界上三大宗教的发源地,长期以来宗教矛盾和冲突不断,许多现实政治问题往往伴随宗教因素而进一步复杂化,其中伊斯兰教与其他宗教的关系,尤为引人瞩目。     

中东国家核竞赛加剧及其影响

长期以来,阿拉伯国家一直积极致力于建设中东无核区。但近来随着中东地缘政治和安全形势的嬗变,尤其是伊朗核事态的发展,它们的态度急剧变化,越来越多的中东国家提出了核开发要求。这不仅使中东核不扩散机制面临严峻挑战,也将对该地区及全球政治和安全产生一系列重要影响。