Gendering the millennium: globalising women

As the century has just changed for the Western calendar it should be borne in mind that for a vast part of the world the centuries are rolling at a different time and under different conditions. So, although we live and trade in a "global village", we are yet divided by time, space, and ideologies. The hope is that the 21st century will enable us to have a closer look at each other and that the global networks, the web sites, and the electronic mailing systems, will work as a bridge rather than as a new means of widening the gaps. This article is a plea for a better understanding of the different priorities and views that Islamist women have of themselves, of their place in history, and what it is that they need to fight for. It is also a call for the universality of sisterhood and a wish that the solidarity that was forged in the latter part of the 20th century will not be fragmented into smithereens in the new millennium.     

国际邪教组织“雷尔教”

2003年11月14日,英国<伦敦晚报>发布的一条新闻立即引起国际主要新闻媒体的关注.据报道称,国际邪教组织"雷尔教"的主要头目之一、法国女生物学家布里吉特·布瓦瑟利耶在接受该报记者独家采访时,宣布"雷尔教"的"斯蒂梅德"公司已经找到一种"青春永驻"的方法,利用干细胞技术可以改变人体变老的进程.①布瓦瑟利耶的这番"惊人之语"立刻使人联想到去年末今年初的一场"闹剧":从2002年12月27日至2003年3月,"雷尔教"接连召开多个新闻发布会,大肆渲染其所属的"克隆援助"公司相继克隆出5个婴儿.2002年12月底,一手策划这一事件的"雷尔教"教主克劳德·沃利霍恩在接受美国<迈阿密先驱报>的采访时说,他"每年均会与外星人通过脑电波联络一次,由外星人告诉他应在哪儿重点进行传道工作",并扬言"下一个传道地点将是中国".②     

国际邪教组织——“统一教”

统一教又称“统一协会”或“统一教会”,全称为“世界基督教统一神灵协会”(Holy Spirit Associationfor Unification of World Christianity,简称UC),由韩国人文鲜明(Moon Sun Myung)于1954年创立。一些西     

邪教组织——“香港锡安教会”

2003年“非典”余波尚未平息,2004年初“禽流感”又接踵而至。当人们全力抗击危害人类生命安全的严重疫情之际,一些邪教组织不甘寂寞,沉渣泛起,借机鼓吹歪理邪说,企图趁势招揽信徒,聚敛钱     

On Sources of International Law Concerning Anti- Cult Legislation

International religious freedom includes the freedom of religious belief, freedom of religious expression and the principle of equality between new religions and traditional religions. According to relevant international laws, the freedom of religious belief is absolute by nature, but the freedom of religious expression and the principle of equality between new religions and traditional religions are not absolute as they are regulated by legislations on freedom of religious expression and legislations on religious belief market access respectively.     

国际邪教组织“人民圣殿教”

20 0 3年 11月 18日 ,美国加州奥克兰市举行琼斯敦惨案 2 5周年纪念活动 ,提醒人们牢记这起 2 5年前发生的震惊世界的惨案。 1978年 ,人民圣殿教90 0多名信徒在教主吉姆·琼斯的蛊惑下 ,在圭亚那服毒丧命 ,奥克兰市是其中 4 0 0多名遇难者下葬的地方。①人民圣殿教是美国基督教牧师吉姆·琼斯于195 5年在美国创立的教派 ,全称为“人民圣殿基督徒 (使徒 )教会”[People’sTempleChristian (Disciples)Church]。该派极盛时教徒曾高达 3万人 ,遍及美国各地。 1965年后 ,随着琼斯个人欲望的极度膨胀和对美国社会制度幻想的完全破灭 ,人民圣殿…     

Reputation,Cult of Reputation,and International Conflict

Building on recent scholarship on reputation in international politics, this article argues that, because reputation for resolve cannot form in international conflicts due to anarchy, politicians’ persistent belief in the value of reputation for resolve is merely a cult of reputation. After outlining the logic of the cult and an operational code derived from it, this article examines the pattern of influence that the cult has exerted on state behavior in conflicts. It then explores the possible cause of the cult. Finally, it proposes that integrating structural and psychological factors may be a productive enterprise for understanding state behavior, and that further work along this line may lead to interesting findings.

     

浅析普京大国实用主义攻势外交战略

普京上台后一直奉行的是大国实用主叉的外交战略,虽然2007年前后,俄罗斯外交呈现出攻势特征,但那只是在错综复杂的国内外形势下的灵活应变,其维护国家利益、恢复大国地位的战略目标并未改变.     

美国欲借进攻性"否决"计划独占太空

美英媒体最近披露,从明年开始,美国防部下属的国家侦察局(National Reconnaissance Office)将主持实施新的进攻性“否决”(negation)计划:加强太空控制能力,未经美国许可,任何国家不得在近地轨道进行情报侦察以及其他太空活动。这是美国太空控制政策的一个重大转变。它意味着美国抛弃了过去的“灵活否决”政策,转而执行更具进攻性和强制性的太空控制政策。太空控制旨在“确保本国在太空的活动自由,剥夺敌人太空活动的自由”。其主     

印度与美日海洋安全互动:进攻性现实主义视角

尽管印度并非米尔斯海默所界定的大国,但并不妨碍印度在对外关系中采取进攻性现实主义的外交策略。从历史传统来看,印度主要采取借势战略的进攻性现实主义策略。借势战略之所以成为进攻性现实主义策略,不仅在于其为获取权力服务,还在于特别重视军事能力的准备与运用。通过审慎分析可以发现,借势战略的收益受诸多变量的影响,其中尤以地缘优劣、国家能力强弱、权力权重、国际制度、队友考量、目标或非目标等影响最为突出。印度与美日海洋安全互动正是其对进攻性现实主义借势战略策略的运用,在该借势战略框架中,印度为施动者,针对目标为中国,借势对象为美国、日本,收益目标包括安全、发展与权力,手段则重视军事能力的准备与扩张。正是基于借势战略,印度与美日的海洋安全互动取得了令人瞩目的进展,尤其在推动印太地缘政治形态、共同应对中国的海洋挑战、多边联合军演制度化、军事装备与技术贸易等方面令人印象深刻。不过,根据借势战略收益的框架进行分析,印度与美日海洋安全互动的借势战略收益是复杂的,大致可以分为正向收益、不确定性收益和负向收益。于中国而言,对印度的进攻性现实主义策略应当有清醒的认识,并做好相关防范。     

美国东北亚政策的进攻性现实主义解读

以米尔斯海默为代表的进攻性现实主义是现实主义理论的最新发展,其从历史分析与理论论证的角度为美国的东北亚政策提出了"离岸平衡手"的解读与构想。然而朝核危机爆发后,美国的东北亚政策正朝着建立多边安全机制的方向发展,进攻性现实主义提出的"中国威胁论"也不攻自破。     

Scarce Differences: Toward a Material and Systemic Foundation for Offensive and Defensive Realism

A divide has opened up between offensive and defensive realism as to the relative scarcity of security in the international system, with powerful implications for the vision each approach offers about the nature of international politics. Yet we still do not understand why the two diverge given their common neorealist foundations. This article reviews implicit, explicit, and other potential explanations of that difference—the relationship between power and security, the offense-defense balance, the prevalence and efficiency of balancing vs. bandwagoning, and the role played by uncertainty in decision-making—and finds them lacking in their ability to provide an adequate account that is systemic and structural in nature, does not violate arguments the scholars have made in practice, and does not confuse cause with effect. Finding prior efforts lacking, this article proposes that the distinction could be logically rooted in material scarcity, a familiar theme in realism historically that has been ignored in more recent formulations. Drawing a distinction between a “dangerous world” in which uncertainty is the core problem and a “competitive world” in which scarcity bedevils state relations helps explain where offensive and defensive realism both diverge and converge.     

Explaining Changes in U.S. Grand Strategy: 9/11, the Rise of Offensive Liberalism,and the War in Iraq

This paper proposes a model for explaining shifts and variations in U.S. grand strategy. The model is based on a distinction between four ideal-type grand strategies or ideational approaches to security according to the objectives and means of security policy: defensive and offensive realism, and defensive and offensive liberalism. While the four approaches are continually present in the U.S. policy community, it is the combination of two systemic conditions—namely the distribution of capabilities and the balance of threat—that selects among the competing approaches and determines which grand strategy is likely to emerge as dominant in a given period. Great power parity is conducive to realist approaches. In contrast, a situation of hegemony encourages the emergence of ideological grand strategies, which focus on ideology promotion, according to the ideology of the hegemon. In the case of a liberal hegemon, such as the United States, liberal approaches are likely to emerge as dominant. In addition, a relative absence of external threat encourages defensive approaches, while a situation of high external threat gives rise to offensive strategies. Thus, various combinations of these systemic factors give rise to the emergence of various grand strategies. This model is tested in two cases of the two most recent shifts in U.S. grand strategy following 1991. In accordance with the expectations of the model, a change in the distribution of capabilities with the end of the Cold War made possible a change from realist to liberal strategies. In the benign environment of the 1990s the dominant strategy was defensive liberalism, while the change in the balance of threat after 9/11 gave rise to the grand strategy of offensive liberalism.     

从苏共亡党的教训看中共第四代领导集体的党风廉政策略

中国正处于国内经济体制深化改革、社会结构深刻变动、利益格局深入调整、思想观念深度更新之中，党的作风建设和反腐倡廉工作的长期性、艰巨性、复杂性日益突显出来。在这样的背景下，来重新审视苏共亡党的原因对我国当前的党风廉政实践具有重要的价值。从苏共亡党教训可知，党风廉政建设是立党之本。     

简论苏联干部委任制的形成

苏联的干部委任制始于列宁时期 ,形成于斯大林时期。委任制作为俄国文化的积淀在苏联一定历史时期的存在 ,有其合理性。但是委任制毕竟要被现代社会所抛弃。斯大林非但未能及时进行改革 ,反使之登峰造极 ,最后给后代留下了遗患。     

伊朗巴列维王朝覆灭根源探析

巴列维国王的白色革命动摇了在伊朗乡村长期占统治地位的封建生产关系 ,促进了资本主义生产关系在伊朗的发展。伊朗传统的社会结构也因白色革命的成功推进而发生了激烈变革。经济现代化的长足进步客观上要求政治领域进行相应变革。巴列维无视这些变化 ,继续强化君主专制 ,推行独裁统治 ,致使新兴的社会阶层无权分享政治权力 ,传统的社会力量被摧毁。巴列维国王的独裁统治引起伊朗社会各阶层的普遍不满 ,推翻巴列维王朝成为伊朗社会各阶层共同的战斗目标。因此 ,白色革命后伊朗经济现代化进步趋向与政治领域滞后状态之间的矛盾构成巴列维王朝覆灭的根源     

苏联解体原因研究综述

1917年11月7日,斯莫尔尼宫沸腾的欢呼声向全世界宣布了第一个社会主义国家的诞生;1991年12月25日,镰刀锤头国旗的悄然降落宣告了社会主义苏联从地球上的消失.短短74年转瞬即逝,苏联于一夜之间突然崩塌,让整个世界为之震惊和不解,同时也为中外学者研究这一20世纪的"历史之谜"留下了永恒的课题.     

论苏联失败的经济根源

苏联的崩溃无疑是一种社会性失败,社会性失败必须从经济基础找原因,根本的原因在于苏联的基本经济制度--计划经济制度.苏联计划经济制度的种种弊端实际是这一制度内在的不可克服的矛盾的反映,这一矛盾就是计划的指令性与个人消费的不可计划性之间的矛盾.把社会再生产的各个环节--生产、交换、分配、消费纳入统一计划,是苏联计划经济制度的存在前提.个人消费的选择性特征,决定了个人消费不可能由社会统一计划.由此便形成了否定苏联计划经济存在前提的计划与个人消费的对立.在苏联计划经济制度下,解决这一矛盾的惟一办法是压制个人消费,用供应短缺方式使原本不可能由社会统一计划的个人消费变成可以统一计划的,这实际上并没有消除这种对立.计划与个人消费的对立对社会再生产产生了致命的影响,使社会经济陷入危机循环,而危机积累到一定程度就会以猛烈的形式爆发出来,最终导致经济基础乃至整个苏联社会的崩溃.压制个人消费是苏联计划经济赖以存在的内部条件,与外部世界的制度性隔绝是其存在的外部条件,从长期看这些条件都是难以为继的.