Threats to Leaders’ Political Survival and Pro-Government Militia Formation

It is puzzling why leaders delegate authority to pro-government militias (PGMs) at the expense of professional armed forces. Several state-level explanations, ranging from low state capacity to blame evasion for human rights violations have been proposed for the establishment of PGM linkages. These explanations lack focus on the individuals making decisions to form PGMs: national leaders. It is argued that leaders create linkages with PGMs to facilitate leaders’ political survival in the event of their deposition. Threats to leaders’ survival come from the military, foreign powers, or domestic actors outside the ruling coalition. As costs of leader deposition are low for the state, leaders facing threats from one or all of these sources must invest in protection from outside of the security apparatus. The argument is tested through data on PGM linkage formation and threats to political survival. Results show that leaders under coup threat are more likely to form PGM linkages, while threats from foreign actors make leaders particularly more likely to form linkages with ethnic or religious PGMs. The findings strongly suggest that PGM linkage formation is driven by leader-level desire for political survival, rather than a host of state-level explanations.     

Logic of the Chinese developmental state and China’s geo-economic engagement with Central and Eastern Europe

Asia Europe Journal - This study addresses China’s cooperation with Central and Eastern European (CEECs) countries, centred around what is popularly known as the...     

China’s rise as a strategic challenge and opportunity: India’s China discourse and strategy

The simultaneous rise of China and India is one of the most important developments in contemporary world politics. Given their steadily growing power and aspirations and China’s more assertive posture in Asia, the management of China’s rise is one of the major challenges for India’s foreign policy. However, India is often said to have no guiding strategic framework for its China policy, which is seen as incoherent and reactive. This article, by contrast, shows that India has an evolving China strategy and that the alleged inconsistencies in India’s China policy are rather the result of an ambivalent image of China. Drawing on constructivism and discourse analysis, the article identifies the dominant perception of China in India’s foreign policy discourse and the resulting foreign policy strategy. In a next step, the article analyzes the China policy of the Congress-led UPA Government and investigates whether it conforms to the strategic policy frame of the dominant China discourse.     

Catalan Secessionism: Young People’s Expectations and Political Change

Various factors have triggered the recent shift from devolution to secession in Catalonia: the Aznar government’s lack of response to demands for greater autonomy for Catalonia, the legal challenging of the 2006 Statute of Autonomy of Catalonia and, increasingly, economic arguments as Catalan society endures a harsh economic crisis. After evaluating the impact of the Spanish transition to democracy upon younger generations’ expectations regarding the meaning and content of democracy in post-Franco Spain, it is argued that democracy based upon ‘consensus’ rather than ‘majoritarian democracy’ would be better suited to respond to national minorities’ demands in Spain.     

The Evolution of Political Violence: The Case of Somalia’s Al-Shabaab

This research investigates the development and expansion of the al-Shabaab movement in Somalia from 2000 to 2013. Initially a marginal player in Somalia, by 2013 al-Shabaab had transformed into the most formidable armed opposition to challenge the nascent Somali government and its allies. During this time period they administered territory domestically, while expanding their tactical repertoire and geographic scope of attacks. After analyzing the historical conditions (2000–2006) from which al-Shabaab emerged, I explore the evolution of this organization through the use of historical process tracing. This entails looking for critical junctures on a global, national, and local level that had a dramatic impact on the future trajectory of the insurgency. The results show that harsh foreign interventions had many deleterious consequences, acting as an initial impetus for armed resistance, while also acting as a continuous source of controversy which al-Shabaab exploited to gain new recruits. Moreover, irreconcilable intra-organizational schisms also contributed to altering the future organizational decisions made by al-Shabaab. The culmination of these results engage and expand the theory of categorical terrorism, offering observations to help scholars and policy makers alike begin to re-conceptualize ways to study terrorism and political violence.     

Harmonious World and China’s Road of Peaceful Development

The important concept of building a "harmonious society", a "harmonious Asia" and a "harmonious world" initiated by President Hu Jintao is of great theoretical and practical significance as it constitutes the comprehensive guiding principle for China's domestic politics and external strategies, and establishes the goal and orientation China pursues in the changing international system.     

China’s anti-terror strategy and China’s role in global anti-terror cooperation

Anti-terrorism has become an important part of Chinas domestic and diplomatic agenda. This has its historical roots and theoretical basis. Chinas anti-terrorism campaign started even before 9/11, but it was only after 9/11 that China participates fully in the international anti-terror cooperation and becomes a significant player in the efforts. This paper attempts to make an analysis from the Chinese perspective.     

Political geography and Morgenthau’s early American works

The article is concerned with inconsistencies in Politics among nations (PAN) and Scientific man versus power politics in relation to statements on geopolitics. The article attempts to place these works in the internal and external context of the period in order to ascertain the reason for the inconsistencies. The analysis begins with the context of the chief academic debates in political geography at the time and proceeds to explain the source of the inconsistency between the two books, using the text and archival materials. Following this, the works and criticisms of Halford Mackinder, James Fairgrieve and Nicholas Spykman are examined. The external contextual elements of the Second World War, the beginning of the Cold War and the awakening of American global power are considered as factors in the shift towards a more favourable view on geographical considerations in international relations in PAN. The conclusion that the article reaches is that there are two factors which explain the inconsistency, the integration of American thought on international relations with Morgenthau’s own ideas and the diverging purpose of the books.     

Eight Views on China ＇s Development of Democratic Politics and Reform of its Political System

<正>China has created a road for the development of democratic politics that united the Party, the people and the state on the basis of consideration of the historical experience gained and lessons     

China’s Employment Situation and Policy

Employment constitutes the basis of people’s living and the means to ensure the stability of a country as well. Realizing relatively full employment is the important prerequisite and basic way to improve people's life. Being the most populous country in the world, China has abundant labor resources and faces an arduous and urgent task to tackle the employment problem. Therefore, providing more employment is a major issue directly bearing on people's living that China will have to face for a long time.     

Geo-religion and China’s Foreign Strategies

The intertwining and extensive interactions between geopolitical, international economic and geo-religious factors have become the major features of geoborderilogy in the 21st century. The essence of geo-religion lies in the discursive power and the power of persuasion to influence popular views. With the globalization of China’s national interests and the comprehensive implementation of China’s go global strategy, religion should play its due role in China’s global foreign strategies.     

Arctic Issues and China’s Stance

The Arctic has abundant resources and important values in scientific research, transportation and military affairs. On Arctic affairs, the Arctic countries are cooperative and competitive to each other while taking acceptable as well as cautious attitudes to non-Arctic countries’ participation. China wishes to strengthen mutually beneficial cooperation on Arctic-related issues with various parties.     

The Effect of IMF Programs on Women’s Economic and Political Rights

Though much research has been devoted to the socioeconomic and political consequences of International Monetary Fund (IMF) programs for recipient countries, little is known about the impacts of these programs on the level of respect for women’s rights. We postulate that IMF-induced policy reforms of privatization and public spending cuts, and the growing political repression and instability following the implementation of IMF programs, undermine the government’s ability and willingness to protect women’s economic and political rights. To substantiate the theoretical claims, we combine data on women’s political and economic rights with data on IMF programs for the years 1981–2004. Our findings suggest that IMF involvement is likely to deteriorate the level of respect for women’s economic rights while having no discernible effect on women’s political rights. The results further indicate that the effect of these programs is not conditioned by political regime type and economic wealth of recipient countries. One major policy implication of our findings is that the IMF should start to recognize that the conditions attached to lending programs might be implemented at the expense of women’s economic rights and that more explicit protections of women’s rights need to be included in program negotiations.     

China’s Diplomatic Strategy and Peaceful Development:Opportunities and Challenges

The strategy of peaceful development pursued by China in the present international environment is faced with both opportunities and challenges, with the former outweighing the latter. To make proper use of the opportunities and cope with the challenges so as to accelerate the process of China’s peaceful development, it is crucial to improve our diplomatic strategy and ideas and plan our diplomatic work from an overall strategic perspective. This is also a major issue posed to China’s diplom…     

The Duality of Vietnam’s Deference and Resistance to China

Critically reviewing David Kang’s China-centred hierarchical model, his interpretation of historical interactions between China and Vietnam favours Sinocentrism whilst claiming to rescue historical East Asian international relations theories from Eurocentrism. This analysis provides a nuanced account of Vietnam’s agency in pursuing its national interests in the context of a rising China, showing that Vietnam today continues to draw on the historical tradition of deference/resistance to China to orient its strategies and tactics in dealing with its northern neighbour. Vietnam’s stance toward China is akin to balancing Great Power influence, which entails enlisting other Great Powers to defend its core interests vis-à-vis China. The result is that Vietnam simultaneously pursues a mixture of deference and resistance to China that does not resemble balance of power—against China, or balance of threat—bandwagon with China's behaviours.     

The Evolution of China’s Security Challenges and Grand Strategy

This article examines changes in China’s security perceptions since 1949 and sketches the evolution of China’s grand strategy. In tracing the evolution of China’s security perceptions and grand strategy since 1949, it identifies elements of change as well as continuity. The changes reflect dramatic developments in the PRC’s capabilities and the international circumstances it faces, both of which have shaped the grand strategic choices of China’s leaders. During most of the Cold War decades, a relatively weak China’s vulnerability to serious military threats from much more powerful adversaries led the CCP to adopt grand strategies focused on coping with a clearly defined external security challenge. After the Cold War and especially in the 21st century, an increasingly complex array of internal and external security concerns confronts China’s leaders with new challenges. The paper concludes with a discussion of the significance of the recently established National Security Commission and offers brief observations about its potential significance for the CCP’s leadership in their fight against the new domestic and international security challenges it faces. The novelty of China’s security challenges at home and abroad in the 21st century is a consequence of the end of the Cold War international order and perhaps more importantly, a consequence of China’s successful modernization since 1979.     

Learning geoeconomics: China’s experimental financial and monetary initiatives

China’s rise is increasingly impacting on the global financial and monetary order. To manage its growing centrality in global financial flows and its new relevance for patterns of currency usage, Beijing has been creating a set of new institutional arrangements in three crucial fields: the provision of crisis liquidity, development financing, and a global infrastructure to internationalize its currency. In contrast to the dominant power political interpretation of such developments, this article highlights the strong linkages of Beijing’s new initiatives with the changes in China’s capitalist development path and stresses their experimental character that serves to manage the economic and political risks of China’s accelerating financial internationalization. With a distinct learning attitude regarding its rising geoeconomic prominence and engagement, Beijing’s risk-averse strategy involves a very careful linking, layering, and nesting of new arrangements.     

Global Reordering and China’s Rise: Adoption,Adaptation and Reform

Abstract

While much of the debate over the implications of China’s rise tends to dichotomise around either status quo or revisionist predictions, the reality seems to lie somewhere in between. In broad terms, China has embraced multilateral forms of cooperation and governance. This does not mean, however, that it is satisfied with the distribution of power in many international institutions, or some of the norms and principles that underpin them. This has resulted in a reformist position, with China increasingly willing to offer its own supplementary alternatives. China’s rise has also provided an important economic alternative to dealing with the West, and considerably undermined the ability of others to establish their preferences and world views. China’s lack of commitment to democracy and the external promotion of human rights remains a key reason why some analysts remain unconvinced about the long-term ambitions of an illiberal actor in a global liberal order.