Does ASEAN Matter? International Relations Theories,Institutional Realism,and ASEAN

Abstract

The 1997 economic crisis and the ensuing political and social disorders not only have put regional security at stake, but also have seriously challenged the relevance of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in regional affairs. This article introduces a new institutional theory – institutional realism – to address the widely debated questions: Does ASEAN matter? If so, how? It argues that (1) ASEAN still matters in terms of coping with extra-regional threats through an institutional balancing strategy; (2) ASEAN's future depends on its institutional consolidation in dealing with intra-regional security problems.     

Germany in Europe: return of the nightmare or towards an engaged Germany in a new Europe?

Especially since (re-)unification, perceptions of Germany alternate between the fear of the return of the German hegemon and – at the same time – the diametrically opposed call for more German leadership based on Germany's outstanding pro-European engagement. Nonetheless, Germany's foreign policy has changed little since 1989: it is still cautious rather than assertive. Due to Germany's experience with the two world wars, German foreign policy places great value on the enlargement as well as the deepening of the EU. In sum, Germany can best be characterised as a normal and engaged European state.     

Barking Mad? Risk Regulation and the Control of Dangerous Dogs in Germany

The 'focusing event' of a deadly attack on a six-year-old boy by two dangerous dogs provided not only one of the most debated policy issues in Germany in 2000, but also led to regulatory responses by most Länder governments. By assessing the different responses and the selection of regulatory instruments, it is questioned whether the diversity and speed of responses reflected 'barking mad' regulation as predicted by critical commentators of risk regulation. The conclusion argues that the responses reflected incentives existing within the system of German federalism which led to the diversity of responses and regulatory competition 'to the top'.     

Yet another coup d'État in Germany? Schröder's vote of confidence and parliamentary government in Germany

According to some political commentators Gerhard Schröder's decision in May 2005 to use a ‘false’ vote of confidence in order to have the Bundestag dissolved was nothing less than a coup d'état. From this vantage point an incumbent chancellor had put party interests above crucial aspects of the Basic Law. The debate ensuing Schröder's decision is, thus, to be understood as a variation of a controversy about the legitimate power of parties in the political system, i.e. about the essence of the parliamentary form of government in Germany. In order to bring these issues to the fore the article first describes the chronology of events triggered by Gerhard Schröder's (and Franz Müntefering's) announcements on 22 May 2005. It then examines the five motions for a vote of confidence that have been brought to the floor of the Bundestag since 1949. Finally, it discusses the question of whether the Bundestag should receive the constitutional right to dissolve itself. Overall the analysis supports the view that the vote of confidence has been totally subsumed under the logic of parliamentary government in Germany.     

‘Sowing the Seeds of Love’? Determinants of Local Coalition Formation and Termination between the CDU and the Greens, 1994–2016

Drawing on empirical evidence from 11 CDU–Green coalitions in large German municipalities, this article investigates the determinants of formation and termination of black–green minimal winning coalitions. Such coalitions are likely to be formed if the mayor is a party member of either the CDU or the Greens, if one of the two parties dominates the local party system, and if the SPD suffers from severe vote losses. Furthermore, the results indicate that CDU–Green coalitions are primarily formed if neither the CDU nor the Greens have gained a parliamentary majority with their ‘usual’ coalition partners. Ideological connectivity, however, does not play a major role. Regarding coalition stability, Christian Democrats and Greens are able to govern successfully for an entire legislative term in most of the cases. If a coalition is terminated early, however, this is due to a party breaking the coalition agreement by voting on specific policies together with the SPD in the local council.     

Facebook: An Emerging Arena for Politics of Self-Determination in northern Cyprus?

ABSTRACT

The present article aims to expand scholarship on the political role of social media by focusing on the case of Facebook and the self-determination claims of Turkish Cypriots vis-à-vis Turkey. Drawing upon a virtual ethnography of relevant Facebook sites and groups, this article scrutinises whether social media offer an innovative public platform for the politics of self-determination or on-line claims are in reality formed and negotiated in the same manner as the offline ones. The article concludes that Turkish Cypriots’ Facebook activism may very well be for strengthening their community, shielding their distinct characteristics from mainland Turkey and raising their self-esteem, rather than indicating demands for complete autonomy in the traditional political sense of the word and/or statehood.     

Age,Period and Cohort Effects in the Decline of Party Identification in Germany: An Analysis of a Two Decade Panel Study in Germany (1992–2009)

Party identification traditionally is seen as an important linkage mechanism, connecting voters to the party system. Previous analyses have suggested that the level of party identity is in decline in Germany, and this article first expands previous observations with more recent data. These suggest that the erosion of party identity continues up to the present time. An age–period–cohort analysis of the panel data of the SOEP panel suggests that period effects are significantly negative. Furthermore, it can be observed that throughout the 1992–2009 observation period, education level and political interest have become more important determinants of party identity. Contrary to some of the literature, therefore, it can be shown that the loss of party identity is concentrated among groups with lower levels of political sophistication, indicating that the socio-economic profile of the group with a sense of party identification has become more distinct compared to the population as a whole. In the discussion, we investigate the theoretical and democratic consequences of this trend.     

Euroscepticism and Right-Wing Extremist Attitudes in Germany: A Result of the ‘Dialectic Nature of Progress’?

Euroscepticism is associated with a new cleavage between the ‘losers’ and the ‘winners’ of globalisation. Current research also indicates that right-wing extremist, racist, and anti-democratic attitudes are more prevalent in lower status groups, particularly those struggling with societal change. These findings are combined with a unique data set covering both topics and thus add to the growing literature on Euroscepticism while also exploring the divide between the ‘losers’ and ‘winners’ of modernisation processes. The article introduces categories of occupational status groups, namely the ‘engaged’, the ‘skilled workers’, and the ‘legworkers’, which represent different levels of involvement in modernisation processes. It explores the differences in attitudes between these groups and how those differences correlate with citizens' professional status. It is concluded that perceived subjective alienation, which manifests in racist and anti-democratic attitudes, best explains EU-scepticism.     

Just a Matter of Timing? Local Electoral Turnout in Germany in the Context of National and European Parliamentary Elections

This article looks at the impact of national and European elections on turnout in German local council elections. The focus is first on effects from the timing of local council elections in between two federal elections and second on turnout effects from the combination of local council elections and European parliamentary elections. Starting from considerations about the relationships between high- and low-stimulus elections the article analyses data from 111 German local council elections held between 1951 and 2008. The analyses show first that upcoming national elections do mobilise voters to cast their ballots in regions where local council turnout traditionally is low. Second, combining European and local elections tends to reinforce turnout as well.     

Illusions of Relevance? An Australian Encounter with Malay History and Southeast Asian Security

A. C. Milner’s visiting inaugural at N.U.S. invites exploration of its author’s intellectual development, for he boldly claims a role for an Australian historian of Southeast Asia as a promoter of liberal governance for Southeast Asian societies, in face of militant Islamism. His earlier “postmodernist” commitment to “getting inside the Malay experience” constitutes some sort of precursor, but relativist scepticism fits as uncomfortably as does, in its own way, advocacy of Australian tolerance of Asian authoritarianism. In attacking Leifer’s Realism, the lecture seems ill-informed, while the post-war Oakeshott is scarcely relevant to the diverse societies of Southeast Asia.

German E-Campaigning and the Emergence of a ‘Digital Voter’? An Analysis of the Users of the Wahl-O-Mat

Within the e-campaigning activities of political actors in Germany, the Wahl-O-Mat has emerged as a popular ‘non-party’ online tool which has been used by millions of voters before elections in Germany. An analysis of the users can provide information about the characteristics of people resorting to this and other types of online pre-election tools. Based on an application-specific approach, hypotheses about the users are developed in light of the uses and gratification theory, taking into consideration normative expectations associated with the rise of the Internet. Whether the Wahl-O-Mat helps fulfilling these expectations is analysed by drawing (1) on data generated by an online exit survey of the Wahl-O-Mat users and (2) on datasets of the German Longitudinal Election Study 2009. The findings show that users of the Wahl-O-Mat largely belong to a group of young and politically interested voters who resort primarily to the Internet to collect political information.     

Does local ownership enhance legitimacy and democratic governance in peacebuilding? The case of diasporas

ABSTRACT

In contemporary peacebuilding debates, it is argued that local ownership renders peacebuilding more sustainable, democratic and legitimate. However, these claims have not been seriously interrogated as to their empirical validity. Such evaluations must begin by answering the question, ‘Who is local?’ Different local actors have varying resources, capacities and levels of authority and autonomy. Taking the relatively unexplored case of diasporas, this paper illustrates the absence of a straightforward relationship between ownership and its normative benefits. By assessing the significance of resources like local/ethnic bonds, financial and social remittances, this paper argues that diasporas can undermine the legitimacy of peacebuilding. Furthermore, although diasporas can enhance the prospects for democratic governance, the causal mechanisms can be corrupted.     

When Do Numbers Count? The Differential Impact of the PISA Rating and Ranking on Education Policy in Germany and the US

Why do international comparisons have an impact on some countries while other countries do not respond? This article examines the power of international ratings and rankings (R&R) using the OECD's PISA study and its differential impact on education policymaking as a case study. It argues that international R&R have an impact when two conditions are simultaneously fulfilled: the evaluated topic is framed as crucial in the national discourse, and a substantial gap between national self-perception and the empirical results can be observed. After assessing the media impact of PISA on 21 OECD countries, the theoretical argument is illustrated by an evaluation of the differing reactions of two similarly poorly performing countries: Germany and the US. While the German system of secondary education was strongly affected by the international comparison, beginning with the first PISA study in 2000, and underwent comprehensive changes, the US first responded noticeably in the public and the political discourse only in 2010 to its below-average ranking.     

A paper tiger? Political implications of an export‐led growth strategy for South Africa

The paper examines the theoretical and empirical debates surrounding the benefits of an export‐led growth strategy. The experience of two newly industrialised countries are analyzed and discussed in relation to South Africa's political and economic position. The writers attempt to show that an uncritical acceptance of ‘recipes’ for economic development, which do not take into account specific domestic political and economic factors, could lead to inappropriate policy formulation and implementation.     

The League of Arab States and Regional Security: Towards an Arab Security Community?

This article examines the historical role of the League of Arab States in regional security through the prism of order and sovereignty in the Arab states system. It argues that the League is a product of the dilemma between state sovereignty and Arab nationalism that beset the Arab regional order for decades. Strained by role conflict, Arab rulers opted for a weak inter-regional organisation that they subsequently undermined, exploited or promoted for statist purposes. However over time, the consolidation of state sovereignty and the decline of pan-Arabism have led to the emergence of a more stable regional order. This creates more opportunities for the development of a collective security framework, in which the Arab League could play an important role.     

The Regulatory State in Developing Countries: Can It Exist and Do We Want It? The Case of the Indonesian Power Sector

Abstract

In the rush for development, the regulatory state has assumed the mantle of a new panacea: the instruments and mechanisms necessary for better government, better governance, and better lives. This paper poses two basic questions in response to the rise of the regulatory state and its increasing diffusion into developing countries. First, can regulatory states exist in developing societies or, more accurately, can effective regulatory states emerge and hope to function in a manner similar to their counterparts in developed countries and deliver the types of benefits and outcomes they promise? And second, do regulatory states offer the most effective modalities for delivering enhanced social well-being? By unpacking the concept of the regulatory state and addressing its underlying assumptions and implicit normative values, it is suggested that the modalities of governance entailed in the regulatory state model may not be well suited to developing countries, hurting rather than enhancing governance outcomes. These issues are explored in relation to the Indonesian energy sector, specifically the upstream electricity generation, transmission and distribution sectors, and the machinations involved in governing the sector.     

Contesting Europe,or Germany's Place in Europe? European Integration and the EU Policies of the Grand Coalition Government in the Mirror of Parliamentary Debates in the Bundestag

This article explores how European integration is contested between political parties in debates of the German Bundestag. Distinguishing between ‘domestic’ debates about the conduct of EU policy-making by the German government and ‘supranational’ debates about the institutions and policies of the European Union, the article asks for thematic objects and patterns of polarisation between parties within these debates. Presenting empirical evidence from the manual coding of 23 plenary debates during the second ‘Grand Coalition’ government, it is shown that the polarisation between parliamentary parties differs greatly at both levels of discussion. Whereas the antagonism between government and opposition appears to determine the polarisation of parties in ‘domestic’ debates, more ambiguous and atypical position patterns emerge on behalf of supranational issues. Therefore, the article suggests that a differentiation of various levels of debate is helpful in capturing the polarisation of political parties over the issue of European integration.     

Does Associational Involvement Spur Political Integration? Political Interest and Participation of Three Immigrant Groups in Zurich

This article looks at the determinants of the political integration of migrants at the local level, focusing on two dimensions of political integration: political interest (attitudinal dimension) and political participation (behavioral dimension). Based on a representative survey among Italians, Kosovars, and Turks in the city of Zurich, we tested the thesis advanced by the social capital approach which posits a link between membership in voluntary associations and political integration. Our findings suggest that membership in voluntary associations favors the political integration of the three groups under investigation. Furthermore, we find an impact of both ethnic and cross‐ethnic membership. However, while the effect of associational involvement on the behavioral dimension of political integration is strong and consistent across national groups, the attitudinal dimension displays a weaker and differential impact. Political attitudes and socio‐demographic characteristics play a less important role, except for the effect of the former on political interest, and also tend to have a differential impact on the three groups.     

The OAS and the Summit of the Americas: Coexistence,or Integration of Forces for Multilateralism?

Fifty years after the creation of the OAS, political power is not centralized in that organization but variously diffused throughout the interamerican system. Meanwhile, the Summit of the Americas process has slowly acquired its own institutionality outside the OAS, and is sometimes perceived as challenging the primacy of the ideal of the OAS as the principal institution of interamerican relations. Even with its own weaknesses, the Summit of the Americas has become the most important force for reform of the OAS. As the hemisphere prepares for the third full summit in Quebec, this essay assesses the relationship of these two institutions and their future prospects.