How International Reputation Matters: Revisiting Alliance Violations in Context

We investigate the role of international reputation in alliance politics by developing a signaling theory linking past alliance violations with the formation of future alliance commitments. In our theory, past violations Are useful signals of future alliance reliability conditional on whether they effectively separate reliable from unreliable alliance partners. It follows that states evaluating potential alliance partners will interpret past violations in their context when deciding to enter a new alliance, attaching less weight to violations in “harder times,” when many states are defaulting on their alliance commitments together, and more weight to violations in “easier times,” when fewer states are defaulting on their alliances. We test our theory and find that states are empirically more likely to form new alliances with states that violated in harder times compared to states that violated in easier times. The results have important implications for how scholars understand and estimate the impact of international reputation.     

Reputation,Cult of Reputation,and International Conflict

Building on recent scholarship on reputation in international politics, this article argues that, because reputation for resolve cannot form in international conflicts due to anarchy, politicians’ persistent belief in the value of reputation for resolve is merely a cult of reputation. After outlining the logic of the cult and an operational code derived from it, this article examines the pattern of influence that the cult has exerted on state behavior in conflicts. It then explores the possible cause of the cult. Finally, it proposes that integrating structural and psychological factors may be a productive enterprise for understanding state behavior, and that further work along this line may lead to interesting findings.

     

The Nature of Borders and International Conflict: Revisiting Hypotheses on Territory

This study examines the utility of moving beyond a simple "on–off" dichotomous view of contiguous land borders. For each of the 301 contiguous land borders between states in the international system, measures of ease of interaction, salience, and overall border "vitalness" have been developed using Geographical Information Systems technology. These variables are used to test two major extant lines of thought in international relations literature, as well as our proposed alternative, regarding the expected effect of the "nature" of borders on interstate behavior. We conclude not only that the "nature" of contiguous borders matters but also that the relationship between each of the three border measures and the likelihood of conflict is curvilinear concave—with both high ease of interaction and high salience related to lower levels of conflict, and the middle range of both variables related to higher levels of conflict.     

二战后中日结盟观比较研究——以中苏同盟、日美同盟为例

战后中日结盟观存在差异。从结盟功能来看,中国谋求的是生存与安全;日本谋求的是从生存、安全到对外权力的增加、对国际秩序的影响。从结盟对象来看,中国的结盟对象包括强国和相对弱势的国家;日本的结盟对象集中在强国。从同盟地位与同盟管理来看,中国强调地位及管理的平等,而日本对这方面的不平等往往持容忍的态度。从结盟基础来看,中国从以面临共同威胁而产生的共同安全利益以及意识形态划界,到淡化、放弃意识形态划界。日本则从以面临共同威胁而产生的共同安全利益以及意识形态划界,到淡化意识形态,再到一度逐渐强化意识形态划界。从结盟影响来看,中国经历了结盟利于和平到不利于和平的观念转变,日本则以结盟利于和平的观念为主。     

绿色议题联盟与复合安全化实践：美国关键矿产联盟的构建逻辑

随着碳中和共识成为全球气候治理的主流认知,关键矿产作为支撑清洁能源转型的核心要素,对一国在世界低碳秩序转型中能否获得绿色竞争优势具有重要影响。面对中国等新兴大国的绿色崛起,美国对本国在关键矿产供应上的结构性劣势产生了浓重的霸权焦虑和不安全感。为此,美国选择对传统联盟体系进行调整,试图通过构建绿色议题联盟重塑对竞争对手的战略优势。为了解决联盟调整过程中的合法性约束和政策性约束,美国开启了复合安全化实践。其中,美国的安全化话语实践框定了联盟调整的合法性问题,针对国内民众和外部盟友塑造了关键矿产领域的不安全感,明确了议题联盟需要对抗的目标和具体做法。美国的安全化政策实践则在话语实践的基础上推动了与外部盟友之间在关键矿产问题上的政策协调,在双边和多边层面建立了一系列相互嵌套、兼顾多方位需求的合作机制。安全化话语实践和安全化政策实践相互交织,推动了以美国为主导的关键矿产联盟不断成形。然而,美国关键矿产联盟在理念、分歧管理和资源支撑等方面都存在较为明显的缺陷,其效力难以达到美国政府的预期。     

成本与困境:同盟理论的新探索

同盟的功能发挥与同盟成本、同盟困境存在紧密联系。同盟成本包括同盟硬成本与同盟软成本,前者指同盟的组织成本及同盟行动成本,后者指同盟的声誉与可信性。同盟困境包括传统同盟困境与新同盟困境,前者指的是传统的牵连与抛弃困境,后者指的是同盟针对对象与同盟经济伙伴的同一性困境,以及在同一同盟体系内各个同盟之间存在猜疑与纷争的同盟间困境。同盟成本与同盟困境相互作用,对同盟运行构成影响。     

联盟困境、理性选择与澳美同盟的有限升级

任何联盟内部都存在联盟困境(即"被抛弃"与"被牵连")。在"美主澳从"的澳美同盟中,澳大利亚也面临着联盟困境:如果强调战略自主性则担心"被抛弃";如果强化澳美同盟则担心"被牵连"。在中国快速崛起、美国战略收缩和中美战略竞争不断加剧的背景下,澳大利亚认为有限升级澳美同盟——对美国欲"距"还迎——是其缓解联盟困境的理性选择。首先,有限升级澳美同盟不仅可以大大降低"被抛弃"的风险,而且有望提升地区影响力,同时有助于提升澳在中美战略布局中的重要性。其次,由于中美两国仍将长期维持"斗而不破"的状态,澳大利亚"被牵连"至中美军事冲突中的可能性很小,而当下澳美同盟的有限强化对成熟稳定的中澳关系冲击总体有限。澳大利亚为了缓解联盟困境、提升外交地位,有限升级澳美同盟,不仅使澳大利亚收益颇丰、成本可控,收益大于成本,而且中澳关系保持有限紧张是符合澳大利亚国家利益的理性选择。     

印度穆斯林：“反恐”阴影与发展困境

本文重点研讨两个方面的问题，其一是“反恐文化”阴影下的印度穆斯林，二是“桑奇报告”及印度穆斯林的发展问题。前者所关注的是“9·11事件”后国际上和印度国内形成的“反恐文化”，及这种阴影下的印度穆斯林在思想意识和行为方式上的变化；后者则关注印度政府对于穆斯林团体存在的困难和问题的关心、认识和政策。     

Hitler's Shadow: Historical Analogies and the Iraqi Invasion of Kuwait

Leaders often turn to history for guidance. Margaret Thatcher and George Bush were no exception when they responded to Iraq's 1990 invasion of Kuwait. Bush and Thatcher used analogies to the 1930s, the Vietnam War and the Falklands War to frame the crisis, which significantly influenced their policies. They argued that Saddam Hussein was another Adolf Hitler and were determined not to repeat the mistakes of the Western response to the Axis in the 1930s or of the Vietnam War. There would be no 1930s-style appeasement of Iraq, and no slow escalation as had occurred in Vietnam. The prompt use of overwhelming force in the Gulf would succeed, Bush and Thatcher believed, just as the use of force had succeeded in the Falklands crisis, and just as such a policy, they believed, would have deterred the Axis in the early 1930s.     

Hitler's Shadow: Historical Analogies and the Iraqi Invasion of Kuwait

Leaders often turn to history for guidance. Margaret Thatcher and George Bush were no exception when they responded to Iraq's 1990 invasion of Kuwait. Bush and Thatcher used analogies to the 1930s, the Vietnam War and the Falklands War to frame the crisis, which significantly influenced their policies. They argued that Saddam Hussein was another Adolf Hitler and were determined not to repeat the mistakes of the Western response to the Axis in the 1930s or of the Vietnam War. There would be no 1930s-style appeasement of Iraq, and no slow escalation as had occurred in Vietnam. The prompt use of overwhelming force in the Gulf would succeed, Bush and Thatcher believed, just as the use of force had succeeded in the Falklands crisis, and just as such a policy, they believed, would have deterred the Axis in the early 1930s.     

试比较日英同盟与"再定义"后的日美同盟

由于地缘因素的限制,自近代以来,日本形成了即使在国力上升时期也对外结盟的政策定势.日本奉行"与强者为伍"的原则,先后同英、美两个全球主导国结盟,打压其他竞争对手,最终使自己成为了地区性大国.然而,日本在结盟过程中带有较强的自利性,与盟友的矛盾也不断增加,再加上地区力量的多元化,不断"再定义"下的日美同盟很可能重蹈日英同盟走向消亡的覆辙.     

声誉、责任与公正:中国多边外交的三种需求

本文从国际机制理论的角度对声誉和责任两种多边外交需求作出了理论解释。随后又从原则议定、决策程序和议程设置三个方面对国际机制的公正性问题及其影响进行剖析。最后 ,本文结合中国的国家角色和国家利益推导出中国多边外交的三种需求 ,即声誉、责任与公正 ,而追求公正的多边外交则需要从原则议定、决策程序和议程设置三个方面维护国际机制的公正性     

从同盟角度看日澳结盟趋向的原因及影响

20世纪以来,日澳军事互动升温,逐渐呈现出在多边框架中的双边互动趋势,日益彰显军事互动的机制性,日澳关系结盟化。从同盟角度来看,日澳声称的共同威胁状况、日澳的结盟经历及其对两国的影响、日澳在文化观念上的相互认同状况是分析日澳结盟趋向原因的有益视角。日澳走向军事结盟的趋势对包括中国、美国在内的亚太及全球安全形势必将产生巨大而深远的影响。     

美日同盟中的自主——安全交易研究

美日同盟在自主-安全交易基础上建立,之后由于两国实力对比发生变化,美日的自主与安全诉求也发生变化,从而促使双方不断通过自主-安全交易协调利益。联盟成员的实力是自变量,其引起成员国自主、安全选择的变化为因变量,以此为基础,本文预设了美日联盟中自主-安全交易的三个问题假设:(1)日本自主扩张倾向明显,挑战自主-安全交易;(2)美国纵容日本自主扩张,调节自主-安全交易;(3)利益重合性是联盟自主-安全交易的基础。本文对这些假设进行了验证,总结出了非对称性联盟内国家自主-安全交易的一般逻辑。美日同盟得以不断调整并深化发展的原因不仅仅是美日出于各自国家利益的选择,更是美日之间互动交易的结果,美日通过自主-安全交易各取所需。     

Militant Islam and the Futile Fight for Reputation

The reputation debate in international relations has split into two camps: those suggesting actions affect perceptions of resolve and those who say they do not. This article engages the reputation debate in the context of militant Islamists. Using political psychology, we offer a theory of biased attributions that challenges Mercer's “desires” hypothesis that reputations for irresolution do not form when an act is desirable from the perceiver's eye. Motivated biases undercut any reputation for resolve in cases of firmness and challenge rationalist claims of reputation formation. Militant Islamist perceptions of U.S. and Soviet interventions in the Muslim world since the 1980s support this thesis and caution against futile wars for reputation.     

试论蒙古国主导产业的选择与发展

从蒙古国议会和政府纲领性文件的目标描述来看,蒙古国新政府将实施以资源加工出口为主、近中期轻度国内市场保护为辅的产业经济发展战略,并将在此战略基础上选择确立以下主导产业：1. 因产业贡献和比较优势,视矿山采掘冶炼业为目前唯一且将来很长一段时间内最重要的主导产业;2. 因经营方式转换的“推进效应”、技术投入乘数效应和市场准入原则,视生产绿色产品的畜产品二次加工业为恢复与培育的近中期主导产业;3. 因得天独厚的旅游资源和产业结构升级之需要,视国际旅游业为优先方向上引导发展的远期主导产业。     

后阿拉法特时代--机遇、挑战、抉择

阿拉法特的去世并不意味着巴勒斯坦问题的终结.如果阿拉法特的后继者仍坚持巴勒斯坦人民的权力,可能也将被以色列视为所谓"实现和平的障碍".巴以都面临严峻挑战,以犹太种族和民主精神为立国原则的以色列不能永远占据着巴勒斯坦领土,也不能吞并巴勒斯坦,建立两个民族国家并和睦相处是解决巴以冲突的惟一可行方法,但和平之路依旧漫长,需要国际社会投入更多的关注,推动巴以冲突的公正解决.美国可以发挥重要作用,但以色列的立场仍是关键.