On New Concept of Nuclear Deterrence

Nuclear weaponry is undoubtedly the most important ＂military legacy＂ to the 21st century left over by the last century. The concept of nuclear deterrence, derived from nuclear weaponry, is one of the important elements in international security and strategic studies in the past 50 years. Although nuclear deterrence is still regarded as a major pillar for maintaining stable relations between major powers and for safeguarding national security, yet profound changes have taken place in its meaning.     

新军事变革时代的威慑与国际安全

随着新军事变革时代的到来 ,传统威慑观念及威慑战略日益经受冲击 ,核大国特别是超级大国威慑战略的结构与功能也出现了新的变化。由于威慑能力发展的不平衡 ,这种变化给国际安全形势增添了诸多新的变数。     

"后后冷战时代"观的思考

本文就美国政要“9·11”后提出的所谓“后后冷战时代”观进行了评析 ,认为此一提法既是美国政要对当前时代的一种概括 ,也包含潜在的战略意图 ,即借机整合世界 ,塑造反恐新形势下美国主导的国际政治新秩序。对于“后后冷战时代”观 ,各国虽认识到其中的合理性 ,但也多少看清了美国背后的战略用心 ,因而并不积极呼应 ,致使这一概念未广泛流行。对于中国 ,“后后冷战时代”观能否成为国际通用的“范式”并不重要 ,关键在于体悟其背后的战略内涵 ,制定更为合理的对外战略。     

日本战后防卫政策的演变及走势

战后日本在有计划地发展自己的防卫力量的同时 ,也逐步背离“专守防卫”的原则 ,走上了一条政治军事大国化的道路。本文认为 :和平宪法和日美安保法这两个内含矛盾的法律体系之间的张力形成了战后日本防卫政策演变的内在原动力 ;日本自身综合国力的增强为军事大国化奠定了坚实的物质基础 ;日本善于抓住有利的历史时机也是日本防卫政策得以转变的重要原因。在对日本战后的防卫政策作了上述思考的基础上 ,本文最后对日本防卫政策的今后走向作了一个展望。     

Tempering Optimism about Nuclear Deterrence in South Asia

This article tempers the argument of deterrence optimists, who make the case that nuclear deterrence has maintained the peace between regional nuclear rivals. In particular, it challenges the assertion by Kenneth Waltz that “nuclear deterrence has passed all of the many tests it has faced” among regional rivals in South Asia. Examining two major regional military crises, this article notes that, first, nuclear deterrence was not the key factor ending these crises. Instead, nonnuclear factors involving American diplomacy, which provided the participants with timely exit strategies, ended the crises. Second, if these crisis-ending factors had not been present, there was a strong possibility of significant military escalation, and nuclear deterrence would not have averted such an escalation. The article concludes by noting that, in regions where deterrence optimism is not well supported, Washington may continue intervening in crises between nuclear rivals, and, anticipating such a U.S. approach, regional rivals could become involved in repeated military crises over the long term.     

美国在战后东南亚非殖民化过程中的政策

非殖民化是战后美国对东南亚政策中无法回避的问题。二战期间,美国试图为东南亚殖民地区设计非殖民化的道路。然而,战后复杂的国际政治现实使美国在非殖民化问题上趋于保守,基于全球战略及其建立世界经济体系目标的考虑,美国在东南亚非殖民化过程中的政策变得灵活而现实。战后美国决策层未能真正理解东南亚殖民地民族自决以及更深层次的非殖民化的历史动力,其现实主义政策直接影响到了后殖民时代美国与东南亚的关系。     

Getting a Grip on Tailored Deterrence: The World of Conflict Management

The assumption that the United States operates from a position of strength relative to its potential enemy underpins U.S. deterrence theory. This perceived strength has emboldened American administrations to take serious tactical risks, such as the positioning of aircraft carriers in the Eastern Mediterranean during the 1973 Yom Kippur War in order to dissuade Soviet intervention in that conflict. This tacit assumption, facilitated and entrenched by overwhelming U.S.conventional military superiority in the post-Cold War era, forms the foundation both for the relatively recent developmentof tailored deterrence and for the “Flexible Deterrence Options” (FDO) that now constitute a routine aspectof the joint military planning process. This article argues that the tacit assumption of strength is too narrow and can promote the implementation of deterrent policies and actions that have the opposite effects of those intended. Deterrence, rightly understood, is a component of a conflict management strategy which implies a degree of weakness on the part of the statethat employs it. This condition must be recognized and then incorporated into policies and plans for deterrence.     

Roosevelt, Truman and the Development of Postwar Grand Strategy

After its victory in World War II, it was clear that United States should move beyond the disastrous policies of the 1930s, but it was less clear how. Ultimately, a lasting postwar strategy was forged under President Truman. Appreciating how Truman moved well beyond Roosevelt's guiding assumptions is essential to understanding the evolution of American grand strategy. One sees that wartime planning and grand strategy formulation can prove quite inadequate for dealing with postwar challenges. An administration cannot be locked into assumptions, but must constantly test them. Thus, the Truman administration eventually developed and adopted containment and moved far beyond FDR's approach. More substantively, the fundamental geopolitical lesson of World War II and the early Cold War was that the United States must assume the essential balancing role relative to other major powers.     

战后国际秩序的演进与启示:制度改革的视角

战后全球性国际秩序及其制度载体几乎涉及国际关系的所有领域,总体上包括两大部分,一是国际政治和安全秩序,二是国际经济秩序。战后国际秩序的历史演进主要体现为国际制度的改革和发展,大致经历了四个阶段:美国主导时期、制度改革的源起和发展时期、自由市场转向时期和国际秩序改革新时期。在战后国际秩序及其制度规则的发展和演进过程中,发展中国家始终是推动改革的中坚力量。当今世界正经历百年未有之大变局,国际秩序进入改革和调整的新时期。在维护战后国际秩序的前提下,国际制度的改革和发展将是百年变局的一个核心议程。考察战后国际秩序的演进历程,将为思考新时期国际制度的改革和发展提供历史启迪。     

后冷战时期的冷战余波——评美欧俄围绕南奥塞梯事件的战略角逐

美欧俄围绕南奥塞梯事件的斗争已发展成为一场牵动国际战略全局的政治角逐.这场角逐是冷战时期大国争夺势力范围斗争的继续,是后冷战时期的冷战余波.其发展成新冷战的可能性不大,经过反复斗争、较量,达成某种妥协的可能性较大.这一场战略角逐表明世界向多极格局的转型已经接近其最后阶段.     

全球化时代的国家安全风险管理--从金融风暴到9.11事件

本文旨在探讨全球化时代国家安全面临的新挑战,特别是亚洲金融风暴与美国9.11事件的发生,使得传统意义的敌人已经变成不可预测,此时国家安全也就面临着一种不可预期的危险-风险.如何对这种不可测的风险加以管理,确实是全球化时代国家安全必须面对的新课题.     

The Military and SocietyBeyond the Postmodern Era

The degree to which the international security environment had changed after the Cold War became evident with the attacks on September 11. As a result, military forces in the United States (and perhaps in the West generally) are evolving from their Cold War and immediate post-Cold War perspectives to confront transnational and subnational non-state dangers. These changes have significant implications for military professionalism and the relations between the military and society. They are explored through a modified “Postmodern Military” model, called here the “Hybrid” model.     

欧盟外交中的多边主义理念

欧盟一直是多边主义的积极倡议者,进入21世纪更是如此.2003年12月,欧盟发表了历史上第一份安全战略文件<更美好世界中的欧洲安全>,正式提出了以"有效的多边主义"为核心的对外战略.