Nuclear crisis on the Korean peninsula: strategic adaptation,the Abe administration and extended deterrence in the face of uncertainty

Abstract

In the wake of two nuclear tests in 2016, an additional test in 2017 and a series of missile launches by North Korea in 2016–17, Japan's government is facing a critical set of security challenges. These require adaptation and careful planning by the Abe administration and raise important questions about the future of Japanese defence policy, alliance relations with the United States, and cooperation between Japan and the Republic of Korea. The following article considers both the history and current state of relations between Tokyo, Washington and Seoul, the relationship between elite and public opinion within Japan, and the character of Prime Minister Abe's leadership at a time of acute strategic risk. While the danger of conflict in northeast Asia should not be minimized, the gravity of the current crisis potentially offers an important opportunity for policy innovation for the governing Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).     

American elites' strategic thinking towards Korea: From Kennan to Brzezinski

America's foreign policy elites have made different assessments of South Korea's value as an alliance partner, largely depending on their strategic beliefs and visions. Balance-of-power realists like George Kennan have tended to let the regional problems be taken care of by the regional major powers, thus attaching less strategic value to such peripheral states as Korea. On the other hand, globalists like Paul Nitze have emphasized America's preponderant role in maintaining global stability, attaching greater importance to the US-Korean alliance. This article investigates the American foreign policy elites' strategic thinking toward Korea by reviewing the thoughts of Kennan, Nitze, Kissinger and Brzezinski. It then draws out implications for the future US defence commitment to Korea.     

东南亚地区非传统安全合作机制架构与中国的策略思考

在东南亚地区的非传统安全合作中,存在3个层次的合作机制。东盟主导下的非传统安全合作机制,深化缓慢,执行乏力,主要扮演着合作的倡导者和规划者的角色;成员国间的双边或多边小范围合作机制是东盟合作计划的实施者,但合作领域单一,能力有限;区外西方大国主导的双边或多边合作机制,将传统安全与非传统安全合作相结合,发展迅速。这3个层次的非传统安全合作机制既相互支持,又相互竞争。面对东南亚非传统安全合作机制的独特架构,中国需进行策略思考。     

The Israeli defense forces and unconventional warfare: The Palestinian factor and Israeli national security doctrine

The basic premises of the Israeli national security doctrine were laid down by the first Prime Minister, David Ben‐Gurion, who emphasized the decisive role of the neighboring sovereign states as the crucial enemy. This view continues to guide the architects of Israeli strategic thought despite the growing importance of a non‐state actor, that is, the Palestinian national liberation movement.     

The conceptual essentials of minimum: explaining Pakistan's rationale of minimum deterrence

Very little is known about Pakistan's nuclear policy and, in particular, about its adoption of minimum deterrence, given the existence of nuclear ambiguity and the absence of public, official documentation of Pakistan's understanding of minimum deterrence. Therefore, despite its innocuousness, ‘minimum’ remains a vague and complex phenomenon short of definitional concreteness when it is brought to a real conceptual test. On the one hand, minimum is regarded as a small number of deterrent forces arguing against expansion and arms competition, while, on the other hand, it is viewed as a relative, and therefore continually evolving, concept depending on the region's fast-changing strategic environment. A conceptual basis for the concept of minimum is explored, leading to the question: why does Pakistan pursue minimum deterrence? It traces out the rationale of Pakistan's minimum deterrence as conceptualized following the 1998 nuclear tests. This rationale of Pakistan's minimum deterrence is then analysed in light of the essentials of minimum deterrence in order to see whether it is consistent with the basics of minimum as conceived here.     

美国处于战略十字路口:收缩还是扩张

经过几年的激烈搏杀,布什第二任期的外交开始显露"疲惫"之态.新保守派风光不再,美国外交政策向现实主义回摆;国内孤立主义情绪在扩散;反恐苦无良策,无论是军事反恐还是民主反恐都受到国内外广泛质疑.美国徘徊在一个战略十字路口.尽管在战术上美国可能有所调整,但在战略上仍将保持进攻态势.     

The intifada: Palestinian adaptation to Israeli counterinsurgency tactics

In December 1987 the uprising in the West Bank and Gaza Strip significantly changed the nature of the Palestinian threat to Israel and pushed the West Bank and Gaza Palestinians into the forefront of the Palestinian‐Israeli conflict. This article examines the effects of the Israeli counterinsurgency tactics on the Palestinian strategy from the period of 1967 through 1987. It proposes that the implementation of Israel's counterinsurgency policy since 1967 was a crucial factor in creating the conditions for revolution and influencing the Palestinians’ adaptation of their tactics, culminating in the intifada.     

The Security Imperative in Counterterror Operations: The Israeli Fight Against Suicidal Terror

ABSTRACT

Israel has had a long tradition of fighting international and Palestinian terror. This article looks at how Israel counterterrorism strategy and tactics have developed since the establishment of the State in 1948. By initially providing a working definition of terrorism, the article then goes to show how Israel has sought to defend itself from different Palestinian terror tactics. This article shows how Israeli security forces have struggled safeguarding, and sometimes disregarded Palestinian human rights. This article concludes by arguing that given the responsibility of democratic governments of defending their citizens from imminent terror attacks, such governments often find themselves paradoxically violating human rights. Despite attempts to reduce such human rights abuses, governments will never do so at the expense of their own security.     

India-EU strategic partnership: a new roadmap

Asia Europe Journal - This article examines the role of strategic partnerships in Indian foreign policy and the nature and perceptions of India and the European Union about the strategic...     

9·11事件对以色列经济的影响

在岁末年初，以色列中央统计局和财政部相继公布了以色列在2001年的经济状况：国内生产总值下降0.5％，是自1953年出现1.4％的负增长以来最大幅度的下降；人均国内生产总值下降……     

Increasing strategic accountability: a framework for international NGOs

The accountability of international development NGOs (INGOs) has attracted a great deal of interest from academics and development practitioners. INGO accountability falls into two categories: practical accountability (for the use of inputs, the way activities are performed, and outputs) and strategic accountability for INGOs' performance in relation to their mission. This article presents a conceptual framework for exploring INGO accountability. It is based on information collected through a literature review and semi-structured interviews with representatives from 20 UK-based INGOs. The research found that INGOs tend to use a number of quality-assurance mechanisms to achieve ‘practical’ accountability. However, it is suggested that this kind of accountability will not necessarily enable INGOs to achieve their missions to alleviate poverty and eliminate injustice. Furthermore, the predominant use of practical accountability has led to a number of gaps in INGO accountability. It is suggested that, like the term ‘participation’ before it, accountability has been co-opted for its instrumental benefits to INGO project performance and management. It is argued that if INGOs are to achieve their missions, this will require more ‘strategic’ forms of accountability, geared towards fundamentally changing those social, economic, and political structures that promote poverty.     

以色列安全战略的新阶段——兼论以色列从黎巴嫩撤军

在旷日持久的阿以矛盾发展过程中，以色列的地位较对方似乎不对称。以色列仅是一个1.49万平方公里的小国，而阿拉伯国家的总面积约1400万平方公里。以色列建国初期人口只约有90万，现在总人口约有600万，而阿拉伯国家总人口约2.7亿。众所周知，1948年5月14日以色列成立，翌日，周围阿拉伯国家的军队就开进……     

The Social Construction of Identity: Israeli Foreign Policy and the 2006 War in Lebanon

This article uses a constructivist analysis to consider the social construction of identity and the Israeli military action in Lebanon in 2006. Strands of meaning, constructive of a collective sense of self, emerged out of historical continuities, interacted and were made meaningful in relation to each other around the issue of the Hezbollah threat in 2006. They framed, contextualised and constituted that policy issue to form a situated and contingent identity of the possible, within which the policy decisions that produced the second Lebanon War were taken. Whilst a body of work has resulted from engagement with this conflict, and a well established literature discusses Israeli identity, little has been done to bring the two together and consider in detail the role of identity in constructing the 2006 war as possible and desirable for Israel. This is the focus and contribution of this article. Domestically, the institutional context of the 2006 Knesset elections revealed a national identity in which the multi-faceted vulnerability identity and Fighting Jew identity were salient, interacting strands. The narratives of ordeal, existential threat, and self-reliance acted to increase the power of the Fighting Jew identity, predicated on a faith in military solutions to threats. These ideas came up against and were rearticulated in the context of the global “War on Terror” to make the war in 2006 both possible and desirable.     

Conflict Ripeness Revisited: The South African and Israeli/Palestinian Cases

Negotiation Journal -     

开辟中俄战略协作关系新篇章

俄罗斯和中国,两个如此不同的世界大国,为全世界树立了一个和平、互利、友好合作的榜样.     

Psyoping Hezbollah: The Israeli Psychological Warfare Campaign During the 2006 Lebanon War

The 2006 War between Israel and Hezbollah had a significant component of PSYOP. For the first time in its military history Israel deployed PSYOP as an inseparable part of its military operations. The performance of the PSYOP unit was less than satisfactory due to organizational factors and the general conduct of the war itself. This article analyzes the goals, the themes, and the delivery channels used throughout the PSYOP campaign. An attempt is made to answer the key question of whether this effort was effective.