Nuclear crisis on the Korean peninsula: strategic adaptation,the Abe administration and extended deterrence in the face of uncertainty

Abstract

In the wake of two nuclear tests in 2016, an additional test in 2017 and a series of missile launches by North Korea in 2016–17, Japan's government is facing a critical set of security challenges. These require adaptation and careful planning by the Abe administration and raise important questions about the future of Japanese defence policy, alliance relations with the United States, and cooperation between Japan and the Republic of Korea. The following article considers both the history and current state of relations between Tokyo, Washington and Seoul, the relationship between elite and public opinion within Japan, and the character of Prime Minister Abe's leadership at a time of acute strategic risk. While the danger of conflict in northeast Asia should not be minimized, the gravity of the current crisis potentially offers an important opportunity for policy innovation for the governing Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).     

American elites' strategic thinking towards Korea: From Kennan to Brzezinski

America's foreign policy elites have made different assessments of South Korea's value as an alliance partner, largely depending on their strategic beliefs and visions. Balance-of-power realists like George Kennan have tended to let the regional problems be taken care of by the regional major powers, thus attaching less strategic value to such peripheral states as Korea. On the other hand, globalists like Paul Nitze have emphasized America's preponderant role in maintaining global stability, attaching greater importance to the US-Korean alliance. This article investigates the American foreign policy elites' strategic thinking toward Korea by reviewing the thoughts of Kennan, Nitze, Kissinger and Brzezinski. It then draws out implications for the future US defence commitment to Korea.     

东南亚地区非传统安全合作机制架构与中国的策略思考

在东南亚地区的非传统安全合作中,存在3个层次的合作机制。东盟主导下的非传统安全合作机制,深化缓慢,执行乏力,主要扮演着合作的倡导者和规划者的角色;成员国间的双边或多边小范围合作机制是东盟合作计划的实施者,但合作领域单一,能力有限;区外西方大国主导的双边或多边合作机制,将传统安全与非传统安全合作相结合,发展迅速。这3个层次的非传统安全合作机制既相互支持,又相互竞争。面对东南亚非传统安全合作机制的独特架构,中国需进行策略思考。     

The conceptual essentials of minimum: explaining Pakistan's rationale of minimum deterrence

Very little is known about Pakistan's nuclear policy and, in particular, about its adoption of minimum deterrence, given the existence of nuclear ambiguity and the absence of public, official documentation of Pakistan's understanding of minimum deterrence. Therefore, despite its innocuousness, ‘minimum’ remains a vague and complex phenomenon short of definitional concreteness when it is brought to a real conceptual test. On the one hand, minimum is regarded as a small number of deterrent forces arguing against expansion and arms competition, while, on the other hand, it is viewed as a relative, and therefore continually evolving, concept depending on the region's fast-changing strategic environment. A conceptual basis for the concept of minimum is explored, leading to the question: why does Pakistan pursue minimum deterrence? It traces out the rationale of Pakistan's minimum deterrence as conceptualized following the 1998 nuclear tests. This rationale of Pakistan's minimum deterrence is then analysed in light of the essentials of minimum deterrence in order to see whether it is consistent with the basics of minimum as conceived here.     

The Israeli defense forces and unconventional warfare: The Palestinian factor and Israeli national security doctrine

The basic premises of the Israeli national security doctrine were laid down by the first Prime Minister, David Ben‐Gurion, who emphasized the decisive role of the neighboring sovereign states as the crucial enemy. This view continues to guide the architects of Israeli strategic thought despite the growing importance of a non‐state actor, that is, the Palestinian national liberation movement.     

美国处于战略十字路口:收缩还是扩张

经过几年的激烈搏杀,布什第二任期的外交开始显露"疲惫"之态.新保守派风光不再,美国外交政策向现实主义回摆;国内孤立主义情绪在扩散;反恐苦无良策,无论是军事反恐还是民主反恐都受到国内外广泛质疑.美国徘徊在一个战略十字路口.尽管在战术上美国可能有所调整,但在战略上仍将保持进攻态势.     

The intifada: Palestinian adaptation to Israeli counterinsurgency tactics

In December 1987 the uprising in the West Bank and Gaza Strip significantly changed the nature of the Palestinian threat to Israel and pushed the West Bank and Gaza Palestinians into the forefront of the Palestinian‐Israeli conflict. This article examines the effects of the Israeli counterinsurgency tactics on the Palestinian strategy from the period of 1967 through 1987. It proposes that the implementation of Israel's counterinsurgency policy since 1967 was a crucial factor in creating the conditions for revolution and influencing the Palestinians’ adaptation of their tactics, culminating in the intifada.     

9·11事件对以色列经济的影响

在岁末年初，以色列中央统计局和财政部相继公布了以色列在2001年的经济状况：国内生产总值下降0.5％，是自1953年出现1.4％的负增长以来最大幅度的下降；人均国内生产总值下降……     

Increasing strategic accountability: a framework for international NGOs

The accountability of international development NGOs (INGOs) has attracted a great deal of interest from academics and development practitioners. INGO accountability falls into two categories: practical accountability (for the use of inputs, the way activities are performed, and outputs) and strategic accountability for INGOs' performance in relation to their mission. This article presents a conceptual framework for exploring INGO accountability. It is based on information collected through a literature review and semi-structured interviews with representatives from 20 UK-based INGOs. The research found that INGOs tend to use a number of quality-assurance mechanisms to achieve ‘practical’ accountability. However, it is suggested that this kind of accountability will not necessarily enable INGOs to achieve their missions to alleviate poverty and eliminate injustice. Furthermore, the predominant use of practical accountability has led to a number of gaps in INGO accountability. It is suggested that, like the term ‘participation’ before it, accountability has been co-opted for its instrumental benefits to INGO project performance and management. It is argued that if INGOs are to achieve their missions, this will require more ‘strategic’ forms of accountability, geared towards fundamentally changing those social, economic, and political structures that promote poverty.     

The Social Construction of Identity: Israeli Foreign Policy and the 2006 War in Lebanon

This article uses a constructivist analysis to consider the social construction of identity and the Israeli military action in Lebanon in 2006. Strands of meaning, constructive of a collective sense of self, emerged out of historical continuities, interacted and were made meaningful in relation to each other around the issue of the Hezbollah threat in 2006. They framed, contextualised and constituted that policy issue to form a situated and contingent identity of the possible, within which the policy decisions that produced the second Lebanon War were taken. Whilst a body of work has resulted from engagement with this conflict, and a well established literature discusses Israeli identity, little has been done to bring the two together and consider in detail the role of identity in constructing the 2006 war as possible and desirable for Israel. This is the focus and contribution of this article. Domestically, the institutional context of the 2006 Knesset elections revealed a national identity in which the multi-faceted vulnerability identity and Fighting Jew identity were salient, interacting strands. The narratives of ordeal, existential threat, and self-reliance acted to increase the power of the Fighting Jew identity, predicated on a faith in military solutions to threats. These ideas came up against and were rearticulated in the context of the global “War on Terror” to make the war in 2006 both possible and desirable.     

Conflict Ripeness Revisited: The South African and Israeli/Palestinian Cases

Negotiation Journal -     

开辟中俄战略协作关系新篇章

俄罗斯和中国,两个如此不同的世界大国,为全世界树立了一个和平、互利、友好合作的榜样.     

“大屠杀”对以色列犹太人的影响

第二次世界大战期间 ,德国纳粹对犹太人的“大屠杀”在政治、社会和心理上对以色列犹太人产生了深远的影响。政治上 ,“大屠杀”对以色列国的建立起到了推动作用。在社会层面 ,“大屠杀”成为犹太人 ,尤其是“大屠杀”幸存者总结人生教训的重要事件。与此同时 ,这一历史事件对推动犹太人学习《塔木德》的作用也不容低估。“大屠杀”给犹太人造成的心理冲击———对国家和民族是否能长期平安存在的担心是相当严重的。尤需注意的是 ,以色列的少数领导人利用公众的这一心理 ,推行民族主义政策。     

水在以对黎政策中的地位和作用

水在中东是一种战略资源,对以色列更是如此,它始终影响着以色列的对外政策。以色列水资源匮乏,而黎巴嫩水资源相对丰富,且水战略位置重要。为了得到以利塔尼河水为主的黎巴嫩南部水资源,以色列谋求修改边界,且不惜采取军事行动。以色列虽然为自己的行动辩解,但终究难以自圆其说。虽迫于国内外压力撤出了黎巴嫩南部,但只要水形势得不到改善,只要约旦河源头没有安全保障,以色列再次侵入黎巴嫩南部甚至重新占领之并非不可能。     

巴以争端的新焦点--隔离墙问题

隔离墙问题成为和平解决巴以争端的一大障碍,也因此成为世人关注的焦点.以色列修建隔离墙固然有反对恐怖主义、防止和减少恐怖袭击、保护以色列民众安全的目的,但它在事实上圈占了巴勒斯坦的许多领土和资源,给巴勒斯坦民众的生活造成了极大影响,对巴勒斯坦建国也极为不利.修建隔离墙违背了国际法的一些基本准则,对中东问题的和平解决造成了障碍,遭到巴勒斯坦的反对和国际社会的谴责.