The Land Election in Brandenburg 2009

This election report presents condensed information on the election campaign, the results and the coalition formation of the 2009 Land election in Brandenburg. The SPD with its hugely popular Prime Minister Matthias Platzeck emerged as strongest party, leaving the Left Party in second and the CDU in third place. The stark difference between the CDU's and SPD's result in the Land election and the national election that was held on the same day underlines that Brandenburg is still both a stronghold of the SPD and a wasteland for the CDU. Coalition negotiations led to a – for many surprising – end of the ten year long SPD/CDU coalition and to the formation of the first ‘red–red’ government between SPD and Left Party in Brandenburg. Accompanied by heated debates about the Left Party's past and the position of the SPD towards it, Matthias Platzeck was re-elected as Prime Minister of Brandenburg.     

The Spring 2011 Landtag Elections: Regional Specificities or National Electoral Dynamics?

The year 2011 is a Superwahljahr in Germany, with five states (Hamburg, Saxony-Anhalt, Baden-Württemberg, Rhineland-Palatinate and Bremen) holding Land-level elections in the spring and two more (Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania) following in the autumn. The debate on the ‘second-order’ nature of Land elections – whether they are to be understood by their own regionally specific dynamics or whether they primarily serve as a proxy for national electoral trends – provides the frame for this election report and its discussion of campaigns, election results and coalition outcomes. These elections could perhaps best be described as ‘one-and-a-half-order’ elections: in some of these elections there was evidence of national electoral trends and national political issues, and voters undoubtedly rendered something of a judgement on the federal coalition government. Nevertheless, election and coalition outcomes probably had more to do with the specific political conditions prevailing in each of these states than with any overarching national dynamic.     

The European policy-making machinery in the Berlin republic: hindrance or handmaiden?

This article examines European policy-making in the Berlin Republic. The basic puzzle explored is whether the policy machinery is able to facilitate the projection of a ‘new European policy’, characterised by greater emphasis upon national interests. In order to suggest answers, the article reviews the origins of the policy machinery and the changes made in the pre-unification period. It then explores the current situation in the Berlin Republic. It argues that the legacies of the past – institutional pluralism and the post-war adoption of a European identity – are not easily cast off. Although the machinery has been reorganised since 1990, notably under the Schröder/Fischer coalition, and there have been some adjustments to bilateral relations, a new European policy has not yet emerged, although it is a possible future scenario.     

The Comunidade dos Países de Língua Portuguesa at 20 years: An impact assessment

Established in 1996, the Comunidade dos Países de Língua Portuguesa – Community of Portuguese-Speaking Countries – set out an ambitious agenda to both protect and promote the Portuguese language worldwide and to pursue a range of multilateral initiatives of importance to its members. Rigorous, independent evaluation of the CPLP‘s role and impact has yet, however, to appear. This study moves some distance towards remedying this gap through evidence-based assessment of the enduring objectives of the organisation. It concludes that, while significant advance has occurred in specific respects, progress has been elusive in others. Moreover, such progress has tended to materially benefit specific members of the coalition somewhat more than others.     

The Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan: International Reactions,Military Intelligence and British Diplomacy

From the outset the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan was strongly condemned by Britain and all the other NATO member states, by the non-aligned group and by key countries in Asia and the Middle East. During the first days following the invasion, London worked for the speedy build-up of a diplomatic consensus, while the Carter administration was still in a state of surprise and some confusion. It is evident that the single factor that led many countries to join forces diplomatically was the fear of further Soviet adventurism in Asia and the Middle East; uninformed, alarmist assessments of Soviet intentions played a major part in cementing a diplomatic coalition, which led to the condemnation of Moscow in the UN General Assembly – predictably, the Soviets had vetoed a Security Council resolution. Simply put, the fear of war led to something of a panic among non-aligned nations, which in turn convinced them to back western diplomacy.     

The Berlin Land Election 2006

This article examines the 2006 Berlin Land election, including the election campaigns of the main parties, the results, and the process of post-election coalition formation. While few doubted that the Social Democratic Party (SPD) would emerge as the largest party, and that the highly popular Klaus Wowereit would continue as Berlin's governing mayor; the big questions were what coalition he would lead and whether Berliners would vote for a continuation of the (initially controversial) red–red coalition comprising the SPD and the Left Party. Party of Democratic Socialism (PDS).     

From ‘Dream Team’ to ‘Marriage of Convenience’? An Introduction

This introduction connects some of the main themes covered in this special issue on Chancellor Merkel's second coalition cabinet, which was formed in October 2009 and ended with the electoral collapse of the FDP in the Bundestag election of September 2013. It starts by setting out an interesting ‘puzzle’: the parties forming the coalition of 2009–2013 (CDU, CSU and FDP) had expressed a strong preference for this coalition in the run-up to the election of 2009. Despite their seeming agreement in many policy areas, the coalition formed in 2009 faced tough negotiations and conflicts between the parties from the beginning. The economic crisis the preceding government faced between 2005 and 2009 and unforeseen events during the course of the CDU/CSU–FDP coalition 2009–2013 (e.g. the Euro crisis and the Fukushima environmental disaster) had altered the policy agenda in important ways and rendered the former ‘Christian–Liberal reform project’ obsolete.     

Politics in the Kurdish periphery: clan networks and local party strategies in a comparative perspective

Despite the return to violence and state repression in the Kurdish conflict, the ruling Adalet ve Kalk?nma Partisi (Justice and Development Party – AKP) has remained the only alternative to the Kurdish National Movement (KNM) for Turkey's Kurdish citizens. What local-level strategies did the AKP employ in Kurdish areas to reinforce its national-level appeal to Islamic values? Under what conditions did local vote-seeking strategies help the AKP to overcome its pro-Kurdish rivals at the ballot box? This article examines the politics of local coalition building in the periphery of the Kurdish landscape – Bingöl and Mu?. Despite their many similarities, the two cities voted for different political parties in national elections. This article examines how the AKP's local party organizations interacted with local authority structures, recruited influential local elites, and pursued new voters. The vitality of clan networks in parts of Bingöl enabled the AKP to build a reliable local coalition. The gradual weakening of clan networks in Mu? and their permeation by the KNM prevented a similar coalition. Instead, the parties of the KNM were able to take advantage of divided clan networks to win national electoral contests in the province.     

From Pariah to Power: The Berlin Election of 2001 and the PDS Question

In 2001 Berlin's grand coalition collapsed in dramatic circumstances, leading to a Land election which attracted unprecedented attention within the Federal Republic and beyond. The entire campaign was dominated by one question, namely could the post-communist PDS gain a share of power in the city that embodied the victory of the capitalist west over the communist east? This article outlines the background to the election, and examines the campaigns of all the main parties. It then analyses the results, with comparisons between the east and west of the city, and examines the process that finally resulted in the formation of a Red-Red coalition government. It concludes with a consideration of the significance of the election results for all the parties concerned and for German politics. Overall, the election suggests that 'inner unity' may well be unattainable in Berlin, and that an acceptance of the city's diversity may be the way forward for its politicians.     

The 2009 Elections in Schleswig-Holstein: Polarised Electoral Campaign,Exceptional Election Results,and an Unspectacular Process of Government Formation

The elections for the Schleswig-Holstein Landtag were held on 27 September 2009. After conflicts between the governing parties the Christian Democrats (CDU) and the Social Democrats (SPD), Prime Minister Carstensen had ended the ‘grand coalition’ and called for early elections, one year earlier than scheduled. The electoral campaign centred on the divide between the Christian Democrats who favoured a coalition with the Liberals, and the Social Democrats who competed for a majority together with the Greens. The elections resulted in large shifts in party strength. Christian and Social Democrats together lost about 22 percentage points of votes, while most of the smaller parliamentary parties attained their best election results in Schleswig-Holstein state elections ever. CDU and FDP gained a majority of seats and formed a coalition that re-elected Carstensen into office on 27 October. Using concepts from coalition theory, our analysis shows that a Christian–Liberal coalition was indeed the most likely outcome of the government formation process.     

‘Alliance with the Enemy’: Why the CDU and the Greens Formed Their First Coalition in a Large German Federal State

This article seeks to explain the 2013 coalition between the CDU and the Greens in the German federal state of Hesse. It applies traditional office-seeking and policy-seeking coalition formation theories to the case alongside a new explanation underscoring the influence of past behaviour on coalition partnership; namely, the negative impact of a pre-electoral commitment breach on future coalition formation. The results show that pure office-seeking cannot explain the coalition outcome. Instead, as the analysis of textual data extracted from political parties' manifestos shows, there has been a constant process of policy approximation between the CDU and the Greens in Hesse. Additionally, we find evidence suggesting that the SPD's breach on their promise not to rely on support by the Left Party in 2008 shaped the CDU's refusal to coalesce with the SPD in 2013. The findings add to our understanding of the interplay between office-seeking and policy-seeking motivations as well as the personal enmities of key actors in shaping the coalition formation. The study further offers insights into the new German coalition option between the Greens and the CDU, which can serve as a blueprint at the national level.     

The 1999 Berlin land election

The Berlin election of 1999 resulted in the continuation of the city's Grand Coalition with the veteran CDU leader, Eberhard Diepgen, at the helm, and confirmed the PDS as the strongest party in East Berlin. This article examines the election campaign in Berlin and considers the key factors which determined the outcome. It also considers whether or not the ‘wall in the ballot box’, a political manifestation of the infamous ‘wall in the mind’, still exists over nine years after German reunification. The author argues that the unique history, demography and social make‐up of Berlin, coupled with the prevailing political mood throughout the Federal Republic, made another grand coalition inevitable. She demonstrates that, judging by voting behaviour, ‘inner unity’ remains elusive in Germany's new capital.     

Malaysia’s Federal System: Overt and Covert Centralisation

In recent decades, many countries have implemented decentralisation drives to increase efficiency and responsiveness. However, Malaysia is an exception. Its federal system is more than 50 years old and, rather than decentralising, the country has pursued a sustained centralisation drive. The cause dates back to the pre-independence period, when the nationalist elite, the British and the traditional rulers negotiated the structure of the future government. The first two parties wanted a strong central government, but had to factor in pre-existing political structures centred on the rulers. The result was a federal system with a powerful central government and state governments with diminished responsibilities. Since independence, the ruling coalition founded by the nationalist elite has remained in power at the federal level. Enabled by the constitution’s “top-heavy” design and its unbroken tenure, the coalition has implemented a continuous centralisation drive. Further catalysts – but not causes – have been the implementation of the New Economic Policy and creeping authoritarianism. The centralisation drive has been pursued through a variety of tactics, including: appropriating state government responsibilities; altering incentive structures; privatising state government-owned assets; and “organisational duplication.” Recent policies look to continue this, precluding the potential benefits of a functioning federal system.     

Double Punishment for Regional and National Incumbents: The March 2012 Regional Election in Andalusia

Confounding predictions, the 2012 Andalusian regional election resulted in a renewal of left-wing government as the conservative Popular Party failed to obtain an absolute majority of seats. The socialists, who had ruled the region for 30 years, came second but continued in power in coalition with the United Left, which increased its seat share. The article argues that the Andalusian election results should be understood in a multi-level governance perspective. For those who voted for the socialists, the hard austerity policies implemented by the Popular Party central government became more salient than the current performance of the regional government. The behaviour of unemployed voters is also key to understanding the election outcome.     

The 1999 ecological tax reform law

On 26 November 1999, the second stage of the German government's ecological tax reform law was passed by the Bundesrat. For a coalition that has been under increasing pressure, this law marks a significant political achievement, especially in the context of the poor recent run of Lander election results. This article briefly examines the background to the new law, before outlining the details of its first and second stages, focusing on the compromises made in finalising the second stage. It then discusses some of the reactions to the law and argues that it can be seen as a success for both partners in a coalition government that is struggling in relation to both internal cohesion and electoral success.     

Back to a Predominant Party System: The November 2015 Snap Election in Turkey

Abstract

Turkey’s snap parliamentary election in November 2015 took place in an environment of growing political violence and terrorism resulting from the renewal of the Kurdish conflict in the southeast and two major suicide bombings carried out by Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). Presenting the coalition arithmetic, the article first examines the failure to form a government after the previous election five months earlier. It then examines the campaign for the November election, including party strategies, key issues and the role of the media, before analysing the results and the election winners and losers. In restoring a parliamentary majority for the Adalet ve Kalk?nma Partisi (Justice and Development Party – AKP) that has governed Turkey continuously for the past 13 years, the November election marked the basic continuity of Turkey’s predominant party system.     

The 2009 Landtag Election in Saxony

The Landtag election in Saxony was one of three elections for state parliaments, all taking place on 30 August 2009. Out of the three, it was the one where there was little doubt that the CDU would, once again, appoint the next Prime Minister. Aside from the lack of surprise in the election outcome, this election had some historic moments. After the right-wing NPD was able to re-enter the Saxon Landtag, Saxony is the only German state parliament with six party parliamentary groups present. Further, turnout at this election was 52 per cent, an all-time low. The election ended Saxony's grand coalition and established its first CDU–FDP coalition. Within two weeks after the election, the new coalition contract was negotiated and the new government was sworn in so as to present a clear signal to national voters that a black and yellow coalition was a good and workable alternative to the grand coalition in the German Bundestag as well.     

The Zero-sum Game of Governing Together? Effects of Merkel's Grand Coalition on the Results of the 2009 German Federal Election

Grand coalitions are highly debated in Germany, where large parts of the media and the political world expect negative effects of grand coalitions on parliamentary party systems. This did not happen either with Merkel's grand coalition resulting from the 2005 election or with other grand coalitions in the German Länder. On the contrary, only the SPD suffered heavy losses in 2009. Most experts agree that those losses were caused by the SPD's participation in the grand coalition. Still, it remains largely unclear how Merkel's grand coalition affected the 2009 federal election. To close that gap, this paper thoroughly analyses the effects of Merkel's grand coalition by looking at a crucial but mostly neglected factor in that regard, the evaluation of the grand coalition by voters. It can be shown that the CDU/CSU was mostly unaffected whereas the SPD suffered from being perceived as the less influential party in Merkel's grand coalition.     

Eroding Germany’s Commitment to Data Protection: Policy Entrepreneurs and Coalition Politics in EU Passenger Name Records

A history of totalitarian governments and state surveillance appear to have made Germans sensitive towards the uses of personal data. Because of such concerns, Germany often acted as an obstacle to security measures requiring personal data at the EU level. However, there has been a recent sea-change in Germany over EU Passenger Name Records (EU-PNR), a measure that requires the personal data of airline passengers for security purposes. Many in Berlin have moved from lukewarm at the time of the first EU-PNR proposal in 2007 to advocating it in 2014. The article draws on Kingdon's Multiple Streams Framework (MSF) to examine this change in position, comparing two government coalitions – the CDU/CSU–FDP (2009–13) with the CDU/CSU–SPD (2013–) – to show how actors within the CDU/CSU have acted as policy entrepreneurs to ensure agreement on EU-PNR. It is argued that the composition of governmental coalitions can act as a central condition that facilitates or hinders the success of policy entrepreneurs. While the position of the FDP blocked any progress on EU-PNR in the former coalition, policy entrepreneurs used the willingness of the SPD to show voters their support for tougher security measures, thereby ensuring Germany’s support for EU-PNR.     

Bye-Bye Bipolarism: The 2015 Regional Elections and the New Shape of Regional Party Systems in Italy

In May 2015, 19 million Italians were called to renew the legislative assemblies and presidencies of seven regions, thus concluding an electoral cycle begun in February 2013 that involved all the 15 ordinary statute regions. Beyond their immediate relevance – of the 15 incumbent presidents only three were confirmed in office – these elections represented a turning point for regional party systems, paralleling the earthquake of the 2013 general elections. The ‘fragmented bipolarism’ characterising elections in Italy at the two levels since the mid-1990s, has been replaced by a multipolar competition, as a consequence of the consolidating presence of the Movimento 5 Stelle and the internal divisions of the centre-right coalition. At the same time, fragmentation of regional councils has remained high. The evolution of regional party systems and patterns of competition are analysed in this paper, taking into account the electoral offer, turnout and results in the majoritarian and proportional arenas of the 15 ordinary statute regions.