制衡、追随与冷战后国际政治

在无政府状态下 ,一国在面临威胁或它国权力的急剧增长时 ,是倾向于制衡 ,还是倾向于追随 ?对此现实主义学派内部发生激烈的争论 ,并引起了广泛的学术关注。本文试结合冷战后国际政治新特点对这场争论予以理论审视和分析。     

Balancing against threats or bandwagoning with power? Europe and the transatlantic relationship after the Cold War

The United States has played an important role in European security since the early 20^th century. From the time of the end of the Cold War, this role has changed as a consequence of the lack of a common territorial threat and the overwhelming power of the United States relative to Europe. How have European states responded to the challenges of the American world order? Are they adapting their security policies to match the challenges of US security policy and the American world order? What are the implications of the European response for the transatlantic relationship? This article seeks to describe and explain European security behaviour in the American world through the prism of two realist theories: balance of power realism and balance of threat realism. Despite sharing a common starting point in realist assumptions, each theory allows us to tell a different story about Europe's position in the American world order as well as the opportunities and challenges it faces.     

冷战后的越美关系

冷战后,经过艰难的谈判,越南与美国实现了关系正常化,之后两国关系快速发展。本文着重分析了在两国关系快速发展背后各自的战略意图及其对东亚格局的影响,并对越美关系发展的前景进行了展望。     

Balancing and the Bible: A Pre-Thucydidean View of Threat

This article uses the case of King Saul, David, and the Philistines, drawn from the Hebrew Bible (books 1 and 2 Samuel), to argue that leaders of states with contested or immature authority structures often elect to prioritize threats to their personal rule over external threats to the integrity and welfare of the states which they lead in a manner not predicted by neo-Realist international relations theory. In making this argument, this article not only makes a contribution to the Realist literature on threat prioritization but introduces a new, novel, and ancient data set which can be used both to generate new theories and to test existing theories within international relations.     

冷战后美欧关系的结构分析

在冷战结束至今的 1 0多个年头里 ,随着一系列事件的发生和纷繁复杂的利益关系的多重表现 ,美欧之间在多个领域的关系框架发生变化 ,冲突和矛盾不断增多。这些变化虽未导致联盟关系的破裂 ,却具有结构性的特点。从美欧共同战略目标的丧失到各自不同的战略追求和政策取向 ,从美欧在国际政治重大问题上不同的理念到能力分配的不平衡 ,预示着美欧关系的变化是必然的。这种变化虽然不是全面的对抗与非合作 ,却带有某种根本性并且不同于以往联盟的模式     

Explaining IMF lending decisions after the Cold War

This paper empirically investigates the economic and political factors that affect a country??s likelihood to sign an arrangement with the IMF and the determinants of the financial size of such a program. Arguably the world and the global financial architecture underwent structural changes after the ending of Cold War and so did the role of the IMF. Hence, we update and extend the work of Sturm et al. (Economics and Politics 17: 177?C213, 2005) by employing a panel model for 165 countries that focuses on the post-Cold War era, i.e., 1990?C2009. Our results, based on extreme bounds analysis, suggest that some economic and political variables are robustly related to these two dimensions of IMF program decisions. Furthermore, we show that it is important to distinguish between concessional and non-concessional IMF loans.     

冷战后韩国的军火贸易

韩国是东亚地区的军事强国 ,冷战后每年都要进口大量武器。朝鲜半岛局势的复杂多变 ,以及应付周边多元潜在威胁 ,韩国自身经济实力的强大 ,使韩国的国防战略由依赖型向自主型转变 ,加剧了其武器进口的步伐。韩国军火进口增速快 ,规模大 ,多元化 ,尽可能利用进口实现武器国产化。韩国的军火出口着眼于经济利益 ,物美价廉 ,信誉度高 ,武器的转售在韩国的军火出口中占有一定的比例。     

试析冷战后东盟与俄罗斯的关系

冷战结束后，俄罗斯与东盟的关系在政治、经济、安全等各方面都得到了较快的发展，这种发展态势是伴随俄罗斯外交政策的转变和东亚区域合作的兴起，以及国际、国内、双边一系列有利因素推动下形成的。但双边关系仍面临种种困难与挑战。以俄罗斯目前总体实力，在短期内还难以打破中美日在东南亚的力量平衡状态。     

试论冷战后土耳其的欧盟政策

土耳其地跨亚欧两洲,大部分领土在亚洲境内。但由于历史特别是其国家利益取向等原因,它一直把自己看成欧洲国家。冷战结束后,加入欧盟是土耳其国家外交与安全政策的首要目标。 2004年10月6日,欧盟委员会建议欧盟开始与土耳其展开有关土耳其加入欧盟事宜的谈判,这是土耳其寻求加入欧盟道路上一个重要的里程碑。虽然双方     

Unipolarity,Hegemony, and the New Peace

Despite a few persistent, high-profile conflicts in the Middle East, the world is experiencing an era of unprecedented peace and stability. Many scholars have offered explanations for this “New Peace,” to borrow Steven Pinker's phrase, but few have devoted much time to the possibility that US hegemony has brought stability to the system. This paper examines the theoretical, empirical, and psychological foundations of the hegemonic-stability explanation for the decline in armed conflict. Those foundations are rather thin, as it turns out, and a review of relevant insights from political psychology suggests that unipolarity and stability are probably epiphenomenal. The New Peace can in all likelihood continue without US dominance and should persist long after unipolarity comes to an end.     

冷战后驻韩美军调整评述

驻韩美军是美韩安全关系极为重要的组成部分和历史见证。 2 0 0 2年 1 0月朝核危机以来的驻韩美军重新部署既是朝鲜战争以来历次调整的继续 ,更是对过去的超越 ;既是冷战后美国新军事战略的体现 ,又是当前朝核危机的产物。这一调整必将对目前朝核危机的最终解决以及东北亚地区脆弱的安全均势造成深远的影响。     

冷战后美国对非政策的演变、特点及趋势

冷战后,美国各届政府对非洲政策各有不同侧重点,老布什时期的对非政策重点是抢占前苏联留下的阵地和推行“民主化”,克林顿政府强调通过经贸发展美非关系,小布什上台后,美对非政策重点转向反恐和能源。这些政策有四个共同特点:服务于美全球战略、实用色彩鲜明、选择重点国家、政策手段灵活多样。美国的非洲政策对非洲国家的影响总体上是消极的,今后美仍不会将非洲作为战略重点,但其政策中的积极因素有可能增加。     

冷战后世界秩序的变化与重构

冷战结束后,世界秩序发生重大变化。新的世界大战打不起来,但是,局部战争和地区冲突持续不断,国际恐怖主义成为新的安全威胁,美国的新干涉主义政策成为新的战争形式。两大意识形态对抗支配国际关系的时代已经结束,国家利益重新置于外交政策的首要地位。经济全球化加深了国际相互依存关系,扩大了寻求共同利益和国际合作的基础,也加剧了国际竞争和冲突。世界格局多极化是历史发展的大趋势,在多极均衡基础上构建世界新秩序是现实的选择。     

Making a Cold War in the Near East: Turkey and the Origins of the Cold War, 1945-1947

During the post-war negotiations in the years of 1945 and 1946, the Soviets launched a bitter war of nerves against Turkey in order to establish a military base in Istanbul and share control of the Straits. It was crucial for Britain that the USSR be prevented from gaining any influence in Turkey. However, as Britain was in no position to support Turkey financially, American authorities encouraged by London and Ankara took over the responsibility for Turkey. This articles examines the Great Powers rivalry over Turkey and Turkey's response to it. It argues that regional factors other than US-Soviet confrontation, such as Turkey's security search against the Soviets, also played a crucial part in starting the Cold War in the Near East.     

冷战后国际政治中的文化冲突

冷战后 ,国际政治中的文化冲突呈现许多新特点 ,无论是在表现形式和方式、产生途径、影响与作用还是在解决方式上都出现了新的变化。这不仅与文化自身的原因相关 ,而且也受冷战后国际政治新情况的影响 ,而国家利益内涵和结构的变化是其变动的根本原因。     

论冷战后美国的强制外交

强制外交与威慑一样,主要依靠武力的潜在运用或者说主要通过威胁使用武力,以达成国家的对外政策目标.强制外交是冷战结束后一个引人注目的国际政治现象,该术语也是当前西方国际关系和战略文献中出现频率很高的重要术语之一.本文在剖析西方强制外交理论的基础上,重点研究冷战后美国所实施的两个典型的强制外交案例,着力阐释当代美国强制外交成功或失败的原因，并扼要进行一些评析.     

冷战后欧盟对伊朗的政策

欧盟与伊朗关系是后冷战时代中东地区一对重要的双边关系。为了维护该地区的相对稳定和扩展自身的利益及影响力,欧盟对伊朗采取了不同于冷战后期(1979~1990年)的政策,逐步实施“以接触求转变”的政策。随着伊朗内政、外交的调整和中东地区形势的变动,该项政策在内容上经历了从“批评性对话”到“建设性对话”的转变,在解决伊朗核问题的方式上凸显与美国不同的外交取向。     

核问题:冷战后伊朗民族主义发展的解读

民族主义具有鲜明的政治属性,它是重塑民族精神的主要手段。伊朗核问题其实就是冷战结束后伊朗民族主义政治化的产物,是伊朗民族主义忧患意识、民族复兴意识的集中体现,也是实现国内民族团结、动员一切社会力量进行经济建设的旗帜,同时还是民族主义历史进步性的重要表现。核武器化的民族主义具有两面性:一方面,它是维护政府权威、转移国内矛盾的工具;另一方面,它也是自我封闭和诱发民族极端主义的基础,容易引发非理性的,甚至是被扭曲的爱国主义。