The 2009 Elections in Schleswig-Holstein: Polarised Electoral Campaign,Exceptional Election Results,and an Unspectacular Process of Government Formation

The elections for the Schleswig-Holstein Landtag were held on 27 September 2009. After conflicts between the governing parties the Christian Democrats (CDU) and the Social Democrats (SPD), Prime Minister Carstensen had ended the ‘grand coalition’ and called for early elections, one year earlier than scheduled. The electoral campaign centred on the divide between the Christian Democrats who favoured a coalition with the Liberals, and the Social Democrats who competed for a majority together with the Greens. The elections resulted in large shifts in party strength. Christian and Social Democrats together lost about 22 percentage points of votes, while most of the smaller parliamentary parties attained their best election results in Schleswig-Holstein state elections ever. CDU and FDP gained a majority of seats and formed a coalition that re-elected Carstensen into office on 27 October. Using concepts from coalition theory, our analysis shows that a Christian–Liberal coalition was indeed the most likely outcome of the government formation process.     

Food security as a political issue: the 2009 elections in Malawi

African electorates are expected to use non-evaluative rationales, like patronage and ethnicity, when casting their vote. In famine-struck countries like Malawi it is however worthwhile to investigate how a salient political issue like food security influences voters’ decisions. At the turn of the millennium Malawi went through a series of famines. In 2005 the government changed its famine prevention strategy and started to subsidise fertilisers. The fertiliser programme was a political success and is used to explain the outcome of the 2009 elections. Although this explanation seems plausible, such analyses should be grounded in thorough analyses of the origin and implementation of the food policy. Through archival studies and fieldwork, this study reveals the importance of the opposition in changing the food policy and the politics of the implementation process. Hence, even if food security increased ahead of the 2009 elections, the election cannot be interpreted as a ‘national referendum’ on the incumbent's fertiliser programme.     

Contrasting First- and Second-Order Electoral Behaviour: Determinants of Individual Party Choice in European and German Federal Elections

In contrast to national elections, both parties and voters are assumed to think that ‘less is at stake’ in European elections: Campaigns are less intense, turnout is lower, and citizens are more inclined to ‘vote with their hearts’. The latter should be reflected in differing rationales of voting – party choice should not be based on identical determinants in national and European elections. However, this hypothesis has not been sufficiently tested and most of the research is based on the analysis of aggregated data while causal explanations are located on the micro level. This paper compares vote functions of individuals in regard to the 2009 European Parliament election as well as the 2009 German Federal election. Using data from the German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES), comparison of explanatory models shows that party choice on both levels is neither fundamentally different nor does it fit into the pattern of second-order electoral behaviour.     

The Turkish Presidential Elections of 10 August 2014

The Turkish presidential elections of 10 August 2014 were the first direct elections in the history of republican Turkey. The election of prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdo?an in the first round illustrated his dominant position in Turkish politics, as well as the inability of opposition parties to provide an alternative candidate who appealed to the Turkish electorate. Growing social polarization and concern about emerging autocratic tendencies, corruption allegations and the multilevel crisis in the Middle East failed to dissuade Turkish voters. Nevertheless, the fulfilment of Erdo?an’s declared intention of introducing presidentialism in Turkey will depend on the result of the upcoming parliamentary elections, to be held in June 2015 at the latest.     

A Landlord's Notice to Quit: The May 2012 Municipal Elections in Italy

This article explores the significance of the local elections of May 2012 for the general direction of change in Italian politics. The forces of the centre-right were deserted en masse but without those of the centre-left effectively capitalising on the discontent, which was, instead, expressed by the spectacular advance of the ‘non-party’, the almost completely novel Five-Star Movement. As the last major contest on the political agenda before the next general election due in no more than a year, the May outcome revealed just how difficult it was likely to be for either of the two coalitions to obtain a clear victory on that occasion. The article discusses the extent and the nature of these difficulties – deriving from voters' clear rejection of ‘politics as usual’ – by analysing the run-up, the campaign, the outcome and the aftermath of the May elections.     

Piercing the Incumbency Syndrome: Ghana’s Democratic Transition in 2017

Ghana’s political landscape changed dramatically in 2017, with the election of Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo Addo as president. Ghana’s political transition in 2017 raises new insights into presidential recruitment and politics in Ghana. The purpose of this article is to examine the 2016 elections within the spectrum of the politics of Ghana’s presidential recruitment. This article discusses the hurdles that were surmounted by the opposition New Patriotic Party party, in unseating the incumbent National Democratic Congress (NDC) party. The author coins the term ‘the John Syndrome’ to highlight the mythology held by some commentators that Akufo Addo could not be elected president, because his name is not ‘John’. Discussions about intra-party squabbles that resulted in the loss of NDC’s incumbency are provided. The article concludes that Akufo Addo’s presidency symbolises a de-mythologisation of ‘the John Syndrome’. The perception that Akufo Addo saved the nation in 2012 was his major weapon in piercing John Mahama’s incumbency. The demise of the NDC is likely to create an intra-party shift in favour of the party’s founder.     

Frozen in the Centre,Melting at the Edges?1 The Landtagswahlen in Hesse and Lower Saxony,January 2008

It is rare that two Land elections, taking place on the same day in neighbouring Western Länder, both run by the CDU (in a coalition with the FDP in one), provide such sharp contrasts in both campaigns and outcomes as the Land elections in Hesse and Lower Saxony in January 2008. This election note draws out these contrasts and sets the results in the wider context of their potential impact on the ‘long campaign’ towards the next federal election scheduled for autumn 2009.     

Beppe Grillo's First Defeat? The May 2013 Municipal Elections in Italy

The article analyses the results of the Italian municipal elections held in May 2013. It focuses on their three most striking features: the clear victory of the centre-left coalition, the marked drop in voter turnout and the shrinkage of the Five Stars Movement (M5S). The article analyses the causes of the M5S' loss of votes and interprets this new party with reference to European (disaffection towards political institutions and the ‘counter-democracy’ phenomenon as explained by Rosanvallon) and Italian (the crumbling of the party system) variables.     

Living Parallel Lives: Italy and Greece in an Age of Austerity

The economic crisis has triggered a process of political convergence between Italy and Greece. The simultaneous downfall of the Italian and Greek governments, following the public withdrawal of European confidence in their ability to handle the crisis, was followed by the establishment of technocrat-led governments based on parliamentary ‘super-majorities’ and then by ‘protest elections’, marked by unprecedented levels of electoral volatility. By apparently ending bipolarism, the crisis has completely changed patterns of national government formation and resulted in experiments with unusual government types. Both political systems have entered a transitional phase whose outcome is anything but certain, especially in the continuing context of economic crisis.     

The Spring 2011 Landtag Elections: Regional Specificities or National Electoral Dynamics?

The year 2011 is a Superwahljahr in Germany, with five states (Hamburg, Saxony-Anhalt, Baden-Württemberg, Rhineland-Palatinate and Bremen) holding Land-level elections in the spring and two more (Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania) following in the autumn. The debate on the ‘second-order’ nature of Land elections – whether they are to be understood by their own regionally specific dynamics or whether they primarily serve as a proxy for national electoral trends – provides the frame for this election report and its discussion of campaigns, election results and coalition outcomes. These elections could perhaps best be described as ‘one-and-a-half-order’ elections: in some of these elections there was evidence of national electoral trends and national political issues, and voters undoubtedly rendered something of a judgement on the federal coalition government. Nevertheless, election and coalition outcomes probably had more to do with the specific political conditions prevailing in each of these states than with any overarching national dynamic.     

Administering the Inherited ‘Employment Miracle’: The Labour Market Policy of the Second Merkel Government

Contrary to most other OECD countries, the German labour market remained almost unaffected by the consequences of the global financial crisis and experienced a strong and steady recovery. Thus, after their victory in the elections of 2009, the economic conditions for the bourgeois parties to shape labour market policy according to their preferences were rather favourable. After exploring the causes of the German ‘employment miracle’, this article summarises the relevant labour market policies introduced by the black–yellow coalition. We argue that, apart from some important exceptions, the second Merkel government did not pursue a decidedly market–liberal policy agenda. Instead, primarily due to the low problem load, the government mainly readjusted some of the existing policy instruments. Therefore, German labour market policy between 2009 and 2013 can rather be described as an administration of the inherited ‘employment miracle’ than an active pursuit of a discrete policy agenda.     

Limited freedom and intolerance in Botswana

Botswana has held ten successive formal elections without fail since independence in 1966. The country has transformed itself from one of the poorest countries at independence to an upper middle income one. On the basis of these, Botswana has been regarded as a political and economic model that has been largely praised for the resilience of her democratic institutions, respect for civil liberties, a high degree of political tolerance and an economic success story by African standards. To this extent, Botswana has been perceived as exceptional compared to most African countries. This paper argues that despite having won international acclaim as an African ‘success miracle’, freedom and tolerance in the country exist within the limits set by the state. It is argued that there is limited freedom and growing intolerance of dissenting views by the political leadership. The Botswana state therefore perfectly fits the model of ‘authoritarian liberalism (Good 1996).     

Ghana's elections of 7 December 2016: A post-mortem

Ghana went to presidential and parliamentary polls on 7 December 2016, leading to the defeat of President John Mahama and the National Democratic Congress government by the opposition, the New Patriotic Party led by Nana Akufo-Addo. The outcome of the elections therefore followed in the same vein as those held in Ghana in 2000 and 2008, in which the incumbent party lost to the opposition. This article is based on a desk study review of the 2016 elections. There is a brief overview of the state of affairs in Ghana's electoral politics, followed by a discussion of Ghana's electoral reforms, the organisation and management of the elections, the candidates and the campaigns, and the outcome of the elections, as well as some of the challenges that faced the transition process.     

Namibia's national assembly and presidential elections 2009: Did democracy win?

National Assembly and presidential elections were held in Namibia on 27 and 28 November 2009. The former liberation movement South West Africa People's Organisation (SWAPO) once again secured an overwhelming majority of votes, which consolidated its de facto one-party rule. But the build up to these elections, the contestation by a newly established party and the disputed election results indicated a growing polarisation and a totalitarian tendency, which dents the positive image hitherto associated with Namibian democracy. This election analysis summarises features before, during and after the elections and puts the voting results into a party political context.     

Paradoxes of electoral authoritarianism: the 2015 Ethiopian elections as hegemonic performance

The 2015 elections in Ethiopia had a predictable outcome, showing an entrenched system of one-party dominance that self-referentially enacts the political order created by the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) since 1991. EPRDF spokespersons continued to defend the party’s hegemony as inevitable, grounded in a logic of technocratic authority and with reference to ‘stability’ and ‘development’. This paper describes the electoral process not in the light of democracy theory but of hegemonic governance theory. Elections seem to have lost relevance in Ethiopia as a means of political expression and are only important as a performance of hegemonic governance and as ‘global impression management’ – showing state skills in securing a smooth electoral process as a major organisational feat in itself. Contradictions that the political process creates between the Ethiopian party-state and domestic constituencies, and between the attitudes/policies of certain donor countries, are downplayed or avoided, but problematic in the long run.     

The Remorseless Power of Incumbency in Fiji’s September 2014 Election

Abstract

Fiji’s September 2014 election was the first since the military takeover of December 2006 and the first under a new open list proportional representation system. It proved a landslide victory for coup leader turned Prime Minister Voreqe Bainimarama’s FijiFirst Party. This was a ‘competitive authoritarian’ election, characterised by careful controls over media outlets, manipulation of rules regarding political parties and candidate nominations, and selective use of state finances to harass opponents. It was a genuine contest only in so far as the government could control the process. The outcome demonstrates the potency of incumbency in Fiji, which was also an important factor in the country’s previous post-coup elections in 1992 and 2001.     

From AKP’s ‘Conservative Democracy’ to ‘Advanced Democracy’: Shifts and Challenges in the Debate on ‘Europe’

Abstract

Following the AKP’s victory in the 2002 general elections, ‘conservative democracy’ has emerged as a trademark in Turkish politics, focusing on cosmopolitanism and European integration. In the late 2000s, the party’s favourite notion was ‘advanced democracy’, this time underlining Turkey’s leadership claim in the region and displaying a more critical approach to ‘Europe’. In this paper, I aim to show how different narratives on ‘Europe’ emerged within the context of these empty signifiers. The paper claims that the difference in the two narratives on ‘Europe’ in two different periods does not point to a complete and fully fledged de-Europeanisation trend.     

Podemos and Ciudadanos Shake up the Spanish Party System: The 2015 Local and Regional Elections

With a very high unemployment rate but at the first stage of a timid economic recovery, Spain held regional and local elections in May 2015. The election results showed the fall of traditional parties and the emergence of new forces and citizens’ platforms, which increased the fragmentation of the party system. The PP (Partido Popular – Popular Party) continued to be the most voted-for party but post-election agreements brought the left to power in eight of the 14 regions that held elections, ending four years of conservative general dominance. After commenting on the context, the campaign and the results of the elections, this article explores the main characteristics of the new party competition and examines the profile of those voting for new political alternatives.     

The 2014 Local Elections in Greece: Looking for Patterns in a Changing Political System

In May 2014, municipal and regional elections were held in Greece, concurrently with European elections. This was the first electoral test after the 2012 twin earthquake elections, which marked the beginning of a radical restructuring of the Greek political system. The fragmentation and inconsistency of voting behaviour across different polls in 2014 indicate that Greek politics remains in a transitional phase whose final outcome is still contested. Other characteristics of the elections, including the high proportion of independent candidates, the radical renewal of political personnel and the emergence of Berlusconism in two major municipalities, underline the continuing lack of legitimacy of the political system.