东南亚极端组织“伊斯兰祈祷团”

"9·11"恐怖袭击以后,一个名为"伊斯兰祈祷团"的极端组织及其活动开始频繁见诸媒体.2003年月1月10日,新加坡政府发表了<伊斯兰祈祷团和恐怖主义白皮书>,细述其与东南亚各伊斯兰极端组织及"基地"组织的密切联系,指它正在东南亚地区建立庞大网络,决心通过发动"圣战"在本地区建立一个包括新加坡、马来西亚、文莱、印尼和菲律宾在内的伊斯兰国家.2002年10月12日印尼巴厘岛爆炸案(死亡200多人,伤300多人),今年8月5日印尼万豪酒店爆炸案(死14人,伤149人),都是它所为.     

资本全球化与中东恐怖主义

全球化的本质是资本的全球化 ,而资本全球化的过程是在国别资本的状态下进行的 ,因此不可避免会引起国际矛盾和斗争。资本的本性及其推动科学技术应用于工业领域的趋势 ,必然对传统的社会政治、经济、文化、宗教信仰造成冲击 ,从而引发各种矛盾冲突 ,中东地区的恐怖主义就是表现形式之一。中东是伊斯兰宗教文化传统浓厚的地区 ,同时又是石油资源最丰富的地区 ,因此 ,资本全球化带来的矛盾也就更加突出。中东地区的恐怖主义是资本全球化时代的必然产物 ,最终也将被资本全球化所根除     

恐怖主义、全球化与中东——一个来自博弈论的解析

本文通过博弈论的框架分析了美国对阿富汗塔利班政权发动的战争。美军虽然在这场战争中进展顺利，但很难达到最初确定的抓获本·拉登等恐怖主义头目的目标。恐怖主义的全球化发展要求世界各国采取全球化的反恐怖措施，其中最重要的一条是和平、公正、合理地解决巴勒斯坦问题，从而消除恐怖主义滋生的根源。     

Challenging the State: Effect of Minority Discrimination,Economic Globalization,and Political Openness on Domestic Terrorism

Discrimination against minority groups is a robust predictor of domestic terrorism. However, economic and political openness might further facilitate mobilization of such aggrieved sections of a larger population. This study relates economic and political openness to minority discrimination in explaining vulnerability to domestic terrorism. Terrorism is a rational choice when a minority’s deprivation of public good provisions increases, while global economic integration and limited political openness facilitate rebel mobilization. Using data on 172 countries, I find strong support that countries discriminating against minority groups are more likely to experience domestic terrorist attacks when their economic and political systems open up.     

The Cost of Terrorism: The Relationship Between International Terrorism and Democratic Governance

After Al Qaeda's destruction of the World Trade Center on 11 September 2001, many democracies reacted to the event, and to international terrorism in general, by passing laws restricting civil liberties and political rights, raising questions about the balance between security and liberty. Such laws have produced alarms among civil libertarians, worldwide. Are the alarms justified? In this article we analyze the relationship between the yearly number of international terrorist attacks in 24 countries from 1968–2003 and (a) measures of civil liberties and political rights as provided by Freedom House, and (b) levels of democracy as measured in the Polity IV scales. We take the number of international terrorist events, by country, from data provided by the Memorial Institute of the Prevention of Terrorism (MIPT) http://www.tkb.org/Home.jsp. Our analysis indicates that there is, generally, no relationship between the number of international terrorist events and the levels of civil rights, political rights, or democracy as measured by the Freedom House and Polity IV indicators. When there is a statistically significant relationship, it is negative, opposite to what is predicted by the tradeoff hypothesis.     

The Homegrown Threat: State Strength,Grievance, and Domestic Terrorism

Scholars maintain that, similar to insurgency, terrorist violence is precipitated by both relative deprivation and state weakness. Yet aggrieved minority groups within a country should turn to terrorism when they are weak relative to the state rather than strong. Empirical evidence shows minority group discrimination and fragile political institutions to independently increase domestic terror attacks. But it remains unclear whether grievances drive domestic terrorism in both strong and weak states. Using data from 172 countries between 1998 and 2007, we find that for strong states the presence of minority discrimination leads to increased domestic terrorism, while for weak states the presence of minority discrimination actually leads to less domestic terrorism. Consequently, increasing state capacity may not be a panacea for antistate violence, as nonstate actors may simply change their strategy from insurgency or guerrilla warfare to terrorism. Efforts to reduce terrorist violence must focus on reducing grievance by eliminating discriminatory policies at the same time that measures to improve state capacity are enacted.     

Surveying American State Police Agencies About Terrorism Threats,Terrorism Sources,and Terrorism Definitions

This study presents American state police agencies' perceptions about three significant terrorism and public safety issues. First, we asked about the threat posed by specified extremist groups nationally and to their state. We asked about the number of such groups and their supporters, and the number of activities each group participates in during a typical year in their state. We also asked about the number of criminal incidents each group commits and the number of their supporters arrested in a typical year. Second, we asked the agencies to rate the usefulness of fifteen specified terrorism sources. Third, we queried the agencies about their views of eight terrorism definitions. These data were collected by surveying the fifty state police agencies in the United States. We discovered widespread concern about the criminal activities of various extremist groups, with a particular concern about the threat of Islamic jihadists. Interestingly, although the top rated threat was Islamic jihadists, the respondents indicated that other types of groups were much more criminally active. Further, respondents indicated that various open and non-open sources were valuable terrorism sources. Finally, most respondents reacted more favorably to official terrorism definitions—especially the FBI's—as opposed to academic definitions. We conclude with a discussion of the policy implications of our findings and we outline directions for future research.     

Terrorism Research: The Record

Looking back at the beginnings of academic research on terrorism just over 40 years ago, it is extraordinary to see that what was once a marginal subject for social science has developed into a full-fledged program of “terrorism studies.” In fact, recently a sociologist considered the subject of sufficient importance to write a doctoral dissertation and then a book on the “social construction” of the field (Stampnitzky 2013). This essay highlights some examples of the contributions scholars from different disciplines have made to understanding terrorism. There is no consensus on any general theoretical laws of terrorism (there is no equivalent of a democratic peace theory, for example), but researchers have defined key concepts and deepened explanations of cause, effect, and process.What follows identifies four interrelated areas of explanatory inquiry into terrorism that have emerged over years of research: the effectiveness of terrorism as a strategy of opposition, the determinants and consequences of counterterrorism policies, how campaigns or waves of terrorism end, and how analysis of terrorism can be situated in a broader theoretical framework rather than treated as a phenomenon sui generis. Particular emphasis is placed on studies that are comparative and/or that situate the specific case of terrorism in a general theoretical perspective.     

东南亚地区恐怖主义的新动向

印度尼西亚和菲律宾仍是区域恐怖主义活动的主要基地,但教派团体在分化、重组又分化组合,因此控制起来比以往更加困难。泰国南部的动乱仍然使人忧虑,但目前还没有发现本地暴徒寻求和接受外界援助的可靠线索。在印度尼西亚,2005年10月1日的巴厘岛爆炸案再一次把本区域最著名的教     

Support for Terrorism: The Role of Beliefs in Jihad and Institutional Responses to Terrorism

ABSTRACT

Passive support for terrorism refers to expressions of sympathy for acts of terrorism and/or the justifications (ideology) used by terrorist groups to legitimise their beliefs and actions. One form of passive support is whether Muslims feel terrorists have valid grievances. Appealing to a sense of grievance is a key way that violent Islamists attempt to recruit fellow Muslims to their cause. Using survey data collected from 800 Muslims living in Australia, this paper examines factors that lead Muslims to believe that terrorists have valid grievances. Factors examined include beliefs in jihad and attitudes towards counterterrorism policing and laws. Other variables included in the analysis are social identity, age, gender, income, religious denomination (Sunni vs. Shia), religious commitment, i.e., Mosque attendance, and recent contact with police. The most significant predictor of passive support for terrorism was found to be particular beliefs in jihad. The perceived legitimacy of counterterrorism laws and trust in police were also important. Implications for countering extremist ideology and generating community cooperation in counterterrorism will be considered.     

沙特阿拉伯--改革、民主化与恐怖主义--日本学者福田安志访问西亚非洲研究所

8月 2 4日 ,日本发展中国家研究所学者福田安志(Fukuda)访问中国社会科学院西亚非洲研究所 ,作了题为“沙特阿拉伯———改革、民主化与恐怖主义”的学术报告。西亚非洲所所长杨光研究员和有关学者听取了报告。双方就相关问题进行了交流。福田安志在报告中论及了两大问题 :一是沙特国内的 7个主要问题 ;二是沙特民主化进程的细节问题。(一 )当前沙特国内面临民主化、打击恐怖主义、王位继承、金融改革、失业、工业化和经济改革等七大问题。福田安志认为 ,民主化问题主要包括 :(1)改革君主专制政体 ;(2 )政治改革或民主化 ,改革权力强大的君…     

The Role of Suicide in Politics,Conflict, and Terrorism

ABSTRACT

The central argument of this paper is that suicide has had a long and explicit role in politics and in conflict. Turning to historical examples for insight offers many advantages to current efforts to understand and respond to suicide terrorism. In particular, it facilitates greater objectivity and a calmer consideration of the actors and circumstances than can often be the case with contemporary events. Explanations of suicide in terms of madness, brainwashing, coercion, and fanaticism ring hollow with many of the historical cases, and other explanations, causes, and processes take on greater significance. By considering a number of case examples, this article shows how improved historical awareness can provide badly needed objective insight and help reveal strategic trends and issues. The article illustrates how historical cases offer valuable material and insight which is often extremely difficult to acquire on contemporary protagonists. Lessons and issues for research and policy are highlighted.

I balanced all, brought all to mind,

The years to come seemed waste of breath,

A waste of breath the years behind

In balance with this life, this death

—W. B. Yeats ¹ 1. W. B. Yeats, “An Irish airman forsees his death.” The Poems (London: Everyman, 1919/1990).

Terrorism,violence against the public,and the media: The Australian approach

This paper examines the balance between the apparently competing objectives of government and the media in the general area of violence against the public and details the Australian model for handling issues associated with terrorism and the media. Australia's counterterrorism strategy may be considered holistic, going beyond the idea of a comprehensive capability for response to an actual public incident to include preventive measures and enhancement of the national security environment, suggesting that all elements of the society, including the media, regard security as a cooperative endeavor. These elements have been developed in the “National Anti‐Terrorist Plan” (NATP), developed by Australia's Standing Advisory Committee on Commonwealth/State Cooperation for Prevention against Violence (SAC‐PAV). For the past several years, the SAC‐PAV has been developing a basic strategic guide to provide structure for its many activities, and the committee has agreed that the NATP requires a fourfold strategy for dealing with the media: (1) public communication policies and guidelines, (2) incorporating media response and incident management strategies, (3) media training, and (4) physical controls. In addition, the SAC‐PAV has formulated a set of guidelines for the media to apply when covering terrorist incidents, indicating clearly what crisis managers and counterterrorism response organizations expect of media handling of public crises.     

The Ancient Fire: Religion and Suicide Terrorism

Does religion lead to greater destructiveness from suicide terrorism? And if so, how does it influence this form of political violence? Recent analyses of terrorism point to the significance of religion, but are divided as to whether religion itself matters, or certain types of religious terrorist groups are actually driving suicide terrorist violence. This article draws on social movement theory and recent work in the study of suicide terrorism to argue that religion influences the severity of suicide terrorist attacks as an ideology groups use to justify their struggle and gain public support. This effect occurs regardless of a group's goals or organizational nature. The theory is tested using a generalized estimating equation to account for multiple attacks by several groups. The study finds that the religious ideology of a group greatly increases the number of deaths from a suicide attack, even if varying group motivations and structural factors are taken into account. The article helps to clarify the effect of religion on contemporary terrorism, contributing to the study of both terrorism and religion and politics.     

Terrorism and the media: Problems,solutions, and counterproblems

This article is divided into two main parts. The first part frames the problem of “terrorism and the media” in terms of a complex interaction involving three kinds of relationships. The first is the relationship between terrorists and governments; the second is the relationship between terrorists and the media; and the third is the relationship between government and the media. The second part examines the specific roles of the media in covering terrorism and the impact of such coverage. Four kinds of solutions to the problems deriving from this impact are examined in turn: the use of media guidelines, the use of legislation and legal sanctions, media‐government cooperation, and training and education. Finally, the practicality of these solutions is examined by highlighting the kinds of problems or “counterproblems” that are inherent in each solution.     

The Four Horsemen of Terrorism: It's Not Waves,It's Strains

David Rapoport's concept of Four Waves of terrorism, from Anarchist terrorism in the 1880s, through Nationalist and Marxist waves in the early and mid-twentieth century, to the present Religious Wave, is one of the most influential concepts in terrorism studies. However, this article argues that thinking about different types of terrorism as strains rather than waves better reflects both the empirical reality and the idea that terrorists learn from and emulate each other. Whereas the notion of waves suggests distinct iterations of terrorist violence driven by successive broad historical trends, the concept of strains and contagion emphasizes how terrorist groups draw on both contemporary and historical lessons in the development of their tactics, strategies, and goals. The authors identify four distinct strains in total—Socialist, Nationalist, Religious, and Exclusionist—and contend that it is possible to trace each strain back to a “patient zero” active in the 1850s.     

The Nefarious Helping Hand: Anti-Corruption Campaigns,Social Service Provision,and Terrorism1

This article offers a novel contribution to the terrorism literature by using mathematical modeling and case studies to demonstrate how terrorist and extremist groups can utilize social service provision activities and anti-corruption campaigns instead of violent activities to gain support.The basic argument of the model is that terrorist groups will try to gain support by promising that they will be better distributors of resources than the current regime once they gain power and by promising that they will be less corrupt. However, because all organizations can freely make these promises, their words are cheap talk, and the general population should ignore them. To overcome this problem, organizations must offer a costly signal. Provision of social goods and implementation of explicit anti-corruption campaigns before taking power serves as such a signal. As the United States government and its allies widen their “war on terrorism,” they must consider the ramifications of social service provision and anti-corruption activities, which are common, effective, and potentially useful for increasing the probability of group success.