欧洲主权债务危机与美国债务风险的比较分析

欧洲主权债务危机是1957年《罗马条约》签署以来欧洲面临的最大考验,欧元则遭遇了正式面世10年来最为严重的生存危机。欧洲主权债务危机的爆发,并非仅仅因为其债务问题非常严重,更主要的是因为欧洲的联合中存在着制度性的缺陷。为了克服这些制度性的缺陷,欧洲必须加强对成员国的财政监督、适度地统一管理欧洲的债务、引入惩罚和债务管理机制。一国退出欧元区将面临巨大的经济成本、政治成本和法律、技术方面的障碍。因此,欧元区解体是小概率事件,联合仍然是欧洲政治的主流和传统。和欧洲主权债务危机相比,美国债务问题面临的风险更大。     

The Goldkrieg: Revaluing the Bundesbank's reserves and the politics of EMU

In May and June 1997, Germany's commitment to Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) underwent its most serious test ever when the Bundesbank and the government of Chancellor Helmut Kohl clashed openly over the government's plans to revalue the country's gold reserves. Faced with a budget shortfall and strong political opposition to either tax increases or spending cuts, Finance Minister Waigel attempted to introduce a modest change in the Bundesbank's bookkeeping procedures to bring them in line with the standard practices at other European central banks. The Bundesbank resisted, arguing that the changes would infringe upon its closely guarded independence. This paper explores the political and economic circumstances behind the conflict.     

Central America's Foreign Debt Burden and the HIPC Initiative

This paper reviews the foreign debt burden in Central America with special emphasis on Honduras and Nicaragua. These countries have a large debt overhang and they have lagged behind the rest of the region in terms of economic growth. Our work suggests that Honduras and Nicaragua require alleviation of their foreign debt as a prerequisite to achieve sustained economic growth. The paper also reviews the initiative aimed at reducing the debt burden of the highly indebted poor countries (the HIPC Initiative) and evaluates alternative scenarios of debt reduction for both Honduras and Nicaragua. It ends with a critical assessment of the implications of the fiscal and openness criteria established in the HIPC Initiative.     

Sequenzorientierte Policy-Analyse

Due to the structural characteristics of the German system of government, political scientists often assume that policy-making will be affected by gridlock. Assuming exogenous preferences and stable institutional settings, they tend analytically toward interaction studies based on rational choice. As such studies analyze political decisions isolated from changes in social problems, preferences and institutional settings, their explanatory power focuses on incremental policy change. I suggest viewing political decision-making as a dynamic process. To do this, I examine the innovative pension reform initiated by the former Federal Minister of Labor, Walter Riester, looking at the feedback effects of policies on political action. On the theoretical level, this use of temporality is based on the assumption that policies need to have social integrative effects. My main hypothesis is that sequenceoriented analysis in policy studies would enable us to identify endogenous causes of innovative policy change.     

Institutional Change in Swiss Cantons: A Contribution to Describing and Explaining Institutional Reforms

Most accounts of Swiss federal institutions are unable to explain institutional change. In this contribution the authors trace change in Cantonal reforms and then use multivariate explanation models to account for institutional reforms such as New Public Management reforms. The multivariate analyses used rely on an “event count model” to explain the frequency of institutional reforms and a “binary response model” to explain why Cantons adopt New Public Management reforms. This research demonstrates that policy research as well as innovation and diffusion theories can contribute to explaining institutional reform.     

A Grand Coalition for the Euro: The Second Merkel Cabinet,the Euro Crisis and the Elections of 2013

This article argues that the reaction of the second Merkel government to the sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone was conditioned by informal and formal policy commitments that were put into place by the preceding CDU/CSU and SPD Grand Coalition after the financial crisis of 2007/08. The decisions were shaped by a cross-party consensus among Christian Democrats and Social Democrats about the causes for the good performance of the German economy in the past decade. Both parties also shared the determination to save the euro and to preserve the integrity of the Eurozone. As a result, an informal Grand Coalition emerged in 2011/12 which shaped Germany's policy reactions during the euro crisis down to the details. One important consequence of this development was that the euro bailout measures and the ensuing reforms of the institutional framework of the Eurozone did not become decisive issues during the Federal elections of 2013, despite their unpopularity among the voters.     

The Evolution of a 'Meta-Policy': The Case of the Private Finance Initiative and the Health Sector

This article examines the evolution of the Private Finance Initiative in Britain since 1992 with particular reference to the health policy area. The initiative is presented as a 'meta-policy' in so far as it was not sectoral, but was situated above and beyond the normal run of Whitehall policies; it was also heavily ideologically driven. The evolution of the policy, however, was influenced by the policy networks and institutional interplay. In turn the PFI, as it gathered momentum, affected the culture, personnel and institutional structures within which it operated. The history of the PFI is then set against some recent theories of the policy process, particularly those produced by Peter John, stressing evolutionary approaches, and by David Marsh and Martin Smith, suggesting dialectical approaches to networks. It is suggested that there is a need for some theoretical revision which recognises the possibility that a policy itself can make a distinctive contribution to the causal process of policy change.     

Is Taipei an Innovative City? An Institutionalist Analysis

This paper explores whether Taipei is an innovative city by critically examining Taipei’s industrial and economic performance, developmental visions and spatial planning, as well as institutional settings and political contexts. With the aid of institutionalist perspective, the author argues that Taipei’s innovative efforts are mostly policy innovation, rather than institutional innovation. The author also describes the institutional dynamics that have caused the lack of Taipei’s institutional innovation. The case study of Taipei could be helpful in conducting comparative studies on urban innovation.     

Rising giants: Development in China and India

Can economic growth turn overpopulation from a liability to an asset? China and India tantalize investors as the “last frontiers” of emerging consumer markets; together, they hold 37 percent of the world's 5.7 billion people. Despite their many contrasts, China and India face similiar, immense development hurdles. Mired in economic stagnation and poverty, both countries undertook economic reforms that gained momentum in the 1980s. In this comparative study, IIPS Senior Research Fellow Eimon Ueda analyzes their ongoing economic liberalization efforts and prospects. Ueda comes to IIPS from the Ministry of Finance and has served at the Japanese Embassy in India.     

希腊主权债务危机的由来及其对中国的影响

2010年上半年,一场源自希腊的主权债务危机引发了欧元区的动荡,对欧盟的经济治理产生了深远的影响。本文简要分析了希腊债务危机的爆发和演变过程,进而探讨了希腊债务危机的根源。在此基础上,文章分析了欧盟应对危机的举措以及对中国经济可能带来的影响和冲击。     

The Inextricable Link Between Sovereign Debt and Pensions in Argentina, 1993–2010

Established with the reform of 1993, Argentina's private pension funds became crucial sources of credit for the national government. They purchased large amounts of sovereign bonds defaulted on in 2001 and hence were key to the success of the debt restructuring of 2005. The private pillar was always vulnerable to political maneuvering; the nationalization of private pension funds in 2008 was only the last stage in an iterated process of state intervention, a function of public debt dynamics. This article argues that the financial pressures associated with Argentina's sovereign debt burden systematically shortened the temporality of pension policy decisions, taking those away from long‐term concerns about the stability of the social security system and toward the immediacy of debt‐financing imperatives. Therefore, the politics of pension reform reversal in Argentina were determined by the increasingly strong and inextricable link between debt and pensions.     

Financial aspects of Chinese planning

Abstract

Economic policy in China is designed to serve the general political line. In their talks with me in April 1973, members of the Budget Bureau of the Ministry of Finance made it unmistakably clear that financial considerations are subordinate to economic ones, which in turn are determined by politics.     

欧债危机:治理困境和应对举措

欧洲主权债务危机揭示了欧元区重债国家公共财政的不可持续,同时也将欧元区治理结构的弊端暴露无遗。欧盟受其利益多元和政治体制复杂性以及法律框架的制约,难以独立做出迅速和有效的危机应对举措。因此,债务危机的解决方式不可能立竿见影,这一软肋充分暴露在市场面前,使危机短期内可能不断反复。欧盟国家要走出债务危机,短期内需建立防火墙,控制危机大蔓延,同时大力削减公共财政赤字,尽快恢复市场信心;中期则需改进欧元区的治理结构,加强财政协调和监督;若要最终走出危机,则需提高经济竞争力,促进经济增长,促使公共财政走入良性循环。     

Systemisch verdunkelter Sinn: Beobachtungsschwierigkeiten einer Zentralbank am Finanzmarkt

As an institution that is bound by the instructions of the European Central Bank, the Deutsche Bundesbank performs the monetary politics in Germany. The emphasis on preservation of price stability as primary goal of its policy often obscures how precarious are the means for the fulfillment of its tasks. The article firstly lays out the vicariousness of a strategy called ??monetary mechanism of transmission??, and secondly shows how difficult it was for the Deutsche Bundesbank to detect the approaching world financial crisis in August 2007. The main reasons for this were the systematically blinded risks of ??Asset Backed Commercial Papers?? whose failure are not observable from the point of view of a central bank.     

The Power of Ideas: How Bundesbank Ideas Have Influenced the Reconstruction of the National Bank of Poland

This article is concerned with the qualitative rise of German influence in an enlarged European Union (EU). The point of departure is the assumption that eastward enlargement facilitates the further expansion and manifestation of German power in Europe via the institutionalisation of parts of the Modell Deutschland in the candidate countries prior to their accession. This article examines the power tools that have facilitated the transfer of Bundesbank ideas into the institutional structure of Poland's national central bank, Narodowy Bank Polski (NBP). The analysis demonstrates that the relationship between Germany and its eastern neighbours is not only determined by the former's physical capacities but, in reflection of post-war Germany's foreign policy strategy, relies on the persuasiveness of Germany's ideational lead.     

“欧洲学期”机制探析

"欧洲学期"机制是欧盟为应对和克服主权债务危机而推出的一项深化和扩大政策协调、完善其经济治理的重大改革举措。本文通过对"欧洲学期"机制产生的背景、主要内容与创新、其初期效果以及对欧洲一体化进程的影响的分析,认为该机制虽然在政策有效性和合法性上存在一些不足之处,但在制度设计上具有明显的创新和突破,标志着欧盟财政协调制度向前迈进了实质性的重要一步。     

Central bank independence and the commitment to monetary stability: The case of the German Bundesbank

It is generally accepted that a legally mandated independent central bank will pursue an anti‐inflationary monetary policy, even in the face of pressure from those politicians who appointed the central bank's decision makers. But are politically minded appointees to a central bank really transformed into die‐hard defenders of monetary stability? And, if so, why? This article seeks to answer these questions by exploring the case of the German Bundesbank. Hypotheses for explaining the anti‐inflation orientation of the central bank are explored and supporting evidence for each of the hypotheses is sought, using interviews with Bundesbank council members.     

Wie wird bewertbar, ob ein Staat zu viele Schulden hat? Finanzexperten und ihr Bewertungswissen in der griechischen Schuldenkrise

This paper develops a sociology of knowledge of sovereign debt crises by studying expert cultures in the financial services industry. It is argued that the concept of calculative framing can capture the epistemic practices of analysts as well as the way their products are used by market participants and other stakeholders. The notion of calculative framing is empirically and conceptually extended: The article shows how sovereign debt is framed as a financial value and how calculative framing evolves in situations of crises. The central case is the evaluation of Greece government debt by analysts of international banks in the period from early 2010 until mid 2011. This case shows how crises frames are developed and how they consolidate the evaluation of sovereign default. In this crisis period, analysts inscribe their evaluations into contexts of official crisis management.     

Some military aspects of the Mesopotamia problem

Professor P. K. Basu is currently lecturing at City University, London. His previous appointment was Professor of International Business and Strategy, and Chairman of the Graduate School of Business at Gyosei International College in the UK. Educated at King's College, Cambridge University, and later elected Fellow of Churchill College, he has held several academic posts: Professor of Management at the Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi; Chairman of the Indian Institute of Management, Calcutta; Chairman of the Geological Survey of India and Visiting Professor in several universites. Professor Basu also served as Permanent Secretary to the Federal Government of India for the Ministries of Public Enterprises, Finance, Steel, Mines, Planning and Programme Implementation.

An earlier draft of certain portions of this paper was presented in a lecture to the Society on 8 May 2001.     

Foreign Debt and Literary Credit: Pablo Neruda and Walt Whitman

The article draws in relief how translators carry with them cultural and ideological horizons that necessarily imbue their literary production with distinctly situated historical, political, and personal dimensions. It does so first by examining how The New York Times 's translation of Pablo Neruda's 1972 address to the PEN Club reframes (or distorts) his views on political and literary issues ranging from the negotiation of the Chilean national debt to his literary indebtedness to Walt Whitman, and then by examining how Neruda's 1955 translation of Whitman's 'Salut Au Monde!', refashions and relocates Whitman's work, imbuing it with a communist ethos consistent with Neruda's own.