Ending the War with Al Qaeda

As long as we conceive of the fight with al Qaeda as a war, the fight will remain unwinnable and the goal of effective destruction will remain beyond our reach, according to the author. Historically speaking, modern wars require negotiated conclusions or the complete eradication of present and future threats. The former is politically impossible and the latter is historically unachievable.     

“基地”组织袭击美国中情局驻阿富汗基地

2009年12月30日,美国中央情报局（CIA）设在阿富汗东部霍斯特省的“查普曼前进行动基地”遭自杀式爆炸袭击。31日,中情局局长莱昂·帕内塔证实,袭击导致包括该基地负责人在内的7名中情局特工死亡,6人受伤。多方证据显示,“基地”组织策划、     

Al Qaeda in Mali: The Defection Connections

The control of northern Mali in 2012 by Tuareg rebels and Islamist fighters aligned with al Qaeda proved a serious challenge to Western counterterrorism policies. This article looks at several aspects often overlooked in discussions of the internal dynamics of al Qaeda-linked groups. Using defections related to the al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) offshoot group, the Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO), in Mali as a case study, this article considers the issues of race and legitimacy connected to the group and the threat and policy implications that flow from this analysis.     

“伊拉克圣战基地组织”简介

今年6月7日,“伊拉克圣战基地组织”(Al-Qaeda in Iraq)头目阿布·穆萨卜·扎卡维(AbuMusab al-Zarqawi)在美军对伊拉克首都巴格达以北的巴古拜进行空袭时被炸身亡。约旦籍的扎卡维是穆斯林逊尼派的极端激进分子。伊战后,他领导的“伊拉克圣战基地组织”从解放伊斯兰土地、驱逐     

Al Qaeda Targeting Israel: Between Rhetoric and Reality

Al Qaeda leaders have often stated their desire to attack the state of Israel. But, while the intent and imperative of killing Israelis and Jews features prominently in al Qaeda rhetoric, it has rarely translated into operational attacks on the state of Israel, its citizens abroad, or Jews more generally.     

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula: Framing Narratives and Prescriptions

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula has positioned itself at the vanguard of a media revolution in which terrorist groups both create and frame news events to an unprecedented extent. Through the publication of its e-magazine Sada al-Malahim (The Echo of Epic Battles), the organization has sought to mobilize both Yemeni and non-Yemeni Muslim, Arabic-speaking audiences to carry out violent jihad. This article utilizes the concept of collective action frames to analyze Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula's media output, identifying the organization's grievance narratives, ideological justifications for violent actions, and means to strengthen its credibility among its intended audiences.     

Foreign Influences and Shifting Horizons: The Ongoing Evolution of al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb

This article details how prior to the establishment of al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AGIM), Meghrebis—that is, Algerians, Moroccans, Tunisians and others--made up a significant percentage of the foreign fighters in the al Qaeda-led insurgency in Iraq, thus helping to build the trust networks between al Qaeda central and the Maghreb-based groups, culminating in the the 2007 formal affiliation of the Groupe Salafiste pour la Predication et le Combat (GSPC) with al Qaeda. Since then, an emboldened AQIM has evolved significantly, both strategically and operationally.     

Analyzing Al Qaedaism

Three major events are responsible for the rampancy today of Al Qaedaism, the doctrine of Al Qaeda, an Islam extremist organization. They are： the Anti-Soviet Afghanistan War for the birth of the group; the September 11 terrorist attacks for the spread of its extremist demagogy and the war on terror for its branches networking into alliances worldwide. AI Qaedaism aims at driving away Western forces on the Moslem lands, overthrowing local Pro-West regimes, destroying Israel and setting up a Caliphate empire. Its rampancy has resulted from a combination of diverse factors at work under specific historical conditions rather an inevitable outcome of the growth of the Islam religion. As an ideological weapon for launching Jihad to oust Western influence and topple local regimes, Al Qaedaism reflects an extremist portrayal of modern Islam society, politics, economy and culture.     

Al Shabaab's Foreign Threat to Somalia

This article focuses on the threat to Somalia by al Shabaab (The Youth), an extremist organization that controls most of southern and central Somalia. It learned its strategy and tactics from al Qaeda and the Taliban and relies heavily on a relatively small number of foreign fighters, most of whom are Somalis with foreign passports from the large Somali diaspora. The non-Somali contingent probably numbers only about 200 to 300, although it brings battlefield experience from Afghanistan and Iraq and provides al Shabaab with expertise in bomb making, remote-controlled explosions, suicide bombing and assassinations. Some of the foreigners occupy key positions in al Shabaab. The connection between al Shabaab and al Qaeda is growing stronger but has not yet reached the level of operational control by al Qaeda. Al Shabaab's draconian tactics, which are imported from outside and are anathema to most Somalis, and its foreign component may be its undoing.     

How partnership works

Partnerships can achieve results, but they do not develop smoothly. Members must explore their differences before they can perform well together. Some agencies look inwards at their own priorities and expect their partners to follow them. This leads to a blend of co-operation and competition. Other organisations turn outwards and look for partners who can contribute to shared results. They see themselves as others see them. They do not look back to make sure that others are following. This leads to a blend of mutual respect and reciprocity which is as important for success as finely honed memoranda of understanding.     

How to Appraise?

The world is complex and full of changes. This is the fundamental characteristic of the international situation. In the five years since September 11, the increase of the terrorist threat has impelled the United States to adjust its global strategy. Unilateralism, with preemptive measures as its core, has reached its zenith and, therefore a host of regional and global contradictions have appeared. This is the main thread of the international situation in the past five years.     

欧洲对美国的看法

目前,欧洲民众对美国的评价跌到了历史最低点。从短期看,这次美国在欧洲的民意危机主要是来自两方面:布什总统和美国出兵伊拉克。2004年夏,仅有不到五分之一的欧洲人对美国总统有好感,而四分之三多的欧洲人认为伊拉克战争是个错误。美国士兵虐俘的骇人图片进一步恶化了美在欧洲人心目中的形象。但是此外还存在着更深刻和长期的政治、经济、社会发展等方面的因素。这些因素影响着跨大西洋的关系和欧美相互的看法。2004年6月,布什三访欧洲:参加诺曼底登陆日的六十周年纪念活动、出席爱尔兰欧美峰会和伊斯坦布尔北约峰会。当他被问及欧洲及其他地区对其支持率不高     

阿根廷联系汇率制是如何走向崩溃的--阿根廷金融危机探源之三

主要观点阿根廷出口创汇能力低下,外汇来源不足,实际上国内并不具备实行联系汇率的基本条件.阿根廷的联系汇率是靠举借外债来维持的,当政府无法继续用外债来补充国际储备,从而丧失对外支付能力时,联系汇率就失去了存在的基础.阿根廷没有根据国内外形势的变化及时调整汇率制度,趋利避害,从而注定了联系汇率最终走向彻底崩溃的结局.联系汇率的崩溃,标志着阿根廷实行了11年的曾被誉为新自由主义样板的经济模式正式宣告失败.     

How to prevent nuclear war

Book reviews in this article:
William L. Ury , Beyond the Hotline: How Crisis Control Can Prevent Nuclear War .
Graham T Allison, Albert Carnesale , and Joseph S. Nye Jr. , eds., Hawks, Doves and Owls: An Agenda for Avoiding Nuclear War .
Barry Blechman , ed., Preventing Nuclear War: A Realistic Approach .     

拉美人看新自由主义

早在 2 0世纪 70年代 ,新自由主义思潮就流入拉美。尤其在皮诺切特当政时期的智利 ,新自由主义成了政府制定经济改革政策的理论基础。进入 80年代 ,新自由主义在拉美越来越流行 ,这与以下几个原因有关。第一 ,由于拉美经济陷入了严重的危机 ,拉美国家希望早日摆脱危机的愿望越来越强。新自由主义乘机为拉美国家开出了改革的“处方”。第二 ,在 80年代拉美“民主化”潮流中上台的所谓拉美“新一代领导人”多在西方国家接受过教育 ,他们比较容易接受新自由主义市场经济理论。第三 ,学术界为新自由主义的传播发挥了重要作用。第四 ,东亚经济的…     

如何在安哥拉投资

一、外商投资的法律框架通过1994年9月23日的第15/94号法规,安哥拉政府建立了一套涉及外商投资的法律制度,并将这套制度日臻完善.这反映了政府认识到外商投资可以帮助实现安哥拉的政治-经济发展目标,而且,最为主要的是,安哥拉政府决心使安哥拉成为竞争激烈的南部非洲地区的投资中心.扩大优惠政策、简化手续、加快清除行政授权过程中的官僚作风将有助于实现这些目标.