从东北振兴迈向东北亚大同:试论东北振兴计划与“中韩港”合作

全球化时代的东北振兴不仅具有重要的中国国内经济发展意义,还有重大的国际和地区战略意义,"中韩港"三边合作,对于从东北振兴迈向东北亚大同,具有举足轻重的作用。自上个世纪90年代以来,朝核问题成为影响东北亚和平稳定的主要因素,在六方会谈框架下,中韩双方在维护朝鲜半岛以及东北亚局势的稳定方面积累了合作的经验,两国的经济联系也日益密切。在2008年金融危机背景下,中韩经济均受到不同程度的冲击,中国需要通过拉动内需防止经济发展势头中断,韩国和中国香港特区也需要寻找新的增长空间,而东北振兴计划能够为解决上述矛盾找到出路。中国东部跨越、中部崛起、西部开发都离不开东西和谐、南北合作。"中韩港"在振兴东北问题上的合作如果奏效,有利于吸引更多的国际资本流向该地区,从而为该地区的稳定繁荣打下进一步的基础,为通向东北亚大同创造必要的条件。     

The Tragedy of Liberalism How Globalization Caused the First World War

The belief that globalization enhances peace, a central tenet of liberal theory, enjoys substantial support in recent scholarship on trade and conflict. To conclude that liberalism is right, however, is premature and wrong. Liberal theory is not sufficiently grounded in international trade theory to show how globalization generates constraints on military force, nor does it adequately link these constraints to strengthened peace. This article uses the Heckscher-Ohlin model of trade to connect globalization's economic effects to increased constraints on military force and then explores how, in the nineteenth century, globalization affected European peace. As liberal theory predicts, globalization generated substantial constraints on military force in prewar Europe. Yet there are important flaws in liberalism's logic linking these constraints to strengthened international peace. Contrary to liberal theory, globalization did not strengthen prospects for peace in prewar Europe but was a major cause of the First World War.     

Globalization,the State,and India's Halting March to Common Market: The Political Economy of Tax Reform Under Federalism

As a social phenomenon, globalization has been the target of much criticism. One particular line of attack holds that it will lead to the segmentation and disintegration of the national economy. However, an examination of the long process of reform of the indirect tax system in India underlines, paradoxically, the significant role of globalization precisely in fostering domestic economic integration in the form of a common market, which would overcome the economic segmentation existing prior to globalization. Interestingly, such tax reform has, in considerable part, been driven by the need to meet globalization's challenge that India's economy be efficient and internationally competitive. At the same time, one should not underestimate the critically important role of the state as an institutional variable—which critics tend often to ignore—in carrying through the goal of establishing a common market, presently a work still in progress.     

Threats at Home,Threats Abroad: Bargaining and War in the Shadow of Coups and Revolutions

I analyze a two-level game in which a leader bargains over the spoils of international bargaining with a domestic opposition that can threaten her with a coup or revolution. While fighting an international war shrinks the domestic pie, it also alters the distribution of domestic power. This has three main implications. First, if war will undermine the opposition, fighting may be so attractive that leaders demand more for peace than foreign states are willing to give, leading to war. Second, if war will bolster the opposition, leaders accept harsh terms to avoid fighting—strategic selection that has implications for the observed relationship between war and political survival. Finally, prospective shifts in the distribution of domestic power caused by war can reduce the effects of international asymmetric information, though the result may be to increase or decrease the chances of war.     

The international dimension of democratization: testing the parsimonious approach

This article examines the importance of the international context on regime change. It provides evidence that geographic proximity to the European Union (EU) does not result in the spread of democracy. In contrast, communication and cooperation between EU actors and sub-national regions contributes significantly to the development of democracy in these regions. Considering the role of EU projects, investments and trade in regime transition—measured through indicators of civil society, political openness, freedom of speech and economic liberalization—this article demonstrates that international context may have a positive influence on the diffusion of democracy at a regional, sub-national level. This finding has substantial implications for the literature on international relations and globalization studies. It suggests that the emergence of ‘new’ regions through communication and cooperation takes place through two seemingly contradictory but mutually reinforcing processes: regionalization (territorial disintegration/federalization) and integration (through communication and cooperation).     

战争、和平与全球治理

战争与和平是人类社会面临的重大问题。战争的爆发与和平的实现既受国际政治经济因素的影响,也是国内政治力量相互作用的结果。裁军是决定战争与和平的重要因素,然而,当今国际社会在裁军方面的进展十分缓慢。随着全球化步伐的加快,尤其进入21世纪以来,国际安全形势令人担忧。大规模杀伤性武器的有增无减以及恐怖主义的蔓延继续威胁着国际社会,原先的国际治理逻辑已不再适用。为消除战争、增进和平,重塑全球治理机制的呼声愈加高涨。为此,国际社会需要引入新的治理机制,对影响国际安全的因素加以管理。世界各国日益加深的相互依赖意味着以议题关联为核心的治理手段能够发挥更大作用。为提升和改进全球治理的效果,国际社会必须引入具有动机的激励机制,建立起可信和可核查的制度,对违反协议的国家实施惩罚和制裁,这不仅是国际协议和国际行动成功的关键,也是确保全球治理有效性的不二选择。     

A New Game Needs a New System

Globalization has ushered in new political conditions and new political issues which goes beyond modernity. Internal politics and international politics, two political layers of the framework of modern political thinking, cannot effectively expound and solve political problems on the global scale, hence the need to introduce a global political analytical framework befitting the new global conditions. In contrast with modern political thinking which is based on the concept of hostile and competitive game, globalization has promoted universalization of knowledge, information and technology, and consequently symmetrical imitation of strategies will bring no gains but self-destruction. Moreover, with the high interdependency in economy and existence resulting from globalization, a new power, made up of global capital, shared technology and common media, is exerting its networked global dominance. This new power derives its authority not from its strength but from service, and its new power formula is: service is power. Thus the challenge for the global politics is not hostile competition but the optimization of co-existence. The new all-under heaven system, based on non-exclusive co-existence, holds the best chance to the resolution of political and economic problems on the global scale and world peace.     

War, Peace, and the Invisible Hand: Positive Political Externalities of Economic Globalization

Studies of signaling in international relations reveal how punishing bluffing ex post through domestic audience costs or opposition groups facilitates credible ex ante communication among states and reduces the impetus toward war. Global integration of economic markets may also reduce uncertainty by making talk costly ex ante. Autonomous global capital can respond dramatically to political crises. To the degree that globalization forces leaders to choose between pursuing competitive political goals and maintaining economic stability, it reveals the intensity of leaders' preferences, reducing the need for military contests as a method of identifying mutually acceptable bargains. Asymmetric integration can dampen the pacific effects of globalization, but asymmetry does not in itself exacerbate dispute behavior. We present the theory and offer preliminary corroborative tests of implications of the argument on postwar militarized disputes.     

对中欧全面战略伙伴关系的新期望

伴随当前国际体系的深刻变化和全球化深入发展的大趋势,中欧关系未来发展走向一直是双方十分关切的重要课题。最近中欧之间一系列高层会晤和战略对话,不仅向外界显示了双方对中欧关系的高度重视,而且进一步明确了对中欧全面战略伙伴关系的新期待。中欧双方近期各自表达的关于中欧关系发展走向的新愿景,既有更加积极性的、相似性的层面,同时也显示了双方仍难以消除的分歧性层面。近期,中国领导人提出以新思维推动中欧关系向更高的水平发展具有重要的现实意义。     

太空安全秩序构建中的体系压力与战略指向

在当前“一超多强”的国际体系中,美国加大太空威慑不仅直接给对手带来清晰的威胁,还导致国际太空安全日益滑向军备竞赛和安全困境。这种由美国追求太空霸权所导致的国际体系层面的变化又反过来塑造着当前太空安全关系,促使其他各国在体系压力下作出包含反威慑在内的复杂应对。除了来自国际体系层面的安全压力,各国的太空安全战略选择还受到太空力量功效、太空法规意识、战略协调、国家互动情势、政治过程等中介变量的影响。这些中介变量不但影响国家对太空安全的认知,而且一段时间内会导致国家间太空安全决策的效率竞争型社会化。不过,随着国际社会过程不断延伸发展,太空力量功效和太空法规意识增强使相关国家安全决策更为谨慎和规范。全球化曲折推进中的战略沟通和政策协调使国家间太空安全互动情势由进化冲突向进化合作转变。在各国保持战略审慎的前提下,太空力量的多元化有助于构建包容、普惠、和谐的新太空安全秩序。太空全球性实质引领的共同利益观念又将助推人类命运共同体的构建。     

A California Effect for International Environmental Externalities?

An influential conventional wisdom holds that globalization could induce upward convergence in environmental regulations. Wealthy countries impose environmental regulations that prompt exporters in other countries to adopt sustainable production techniques, so the cost of environmental regulation in these countries decreases. However, previous research has only examined this California Effect for environmental regulations to address domestic externalities. I formally investigate the case of international externalities, such as global warming or ozone depletion. I find that a country can exercise leadership by enacting environmental regulations to strategically induce other countries to regulate in the future, but only if the incentive to free ride is not too strong. Surprisingly, under deep economic integration, environmental regulations are strategic complements with positive spillovers, so that international coordination is necessary to capitalize on the California Effect. In addition to showing that the California Effect is a powerful instrument of environmental statecraft, the results suggest new reasons why liberal trade and investment policies might improve environmental protection. They can also inform a strategy to promote efforts to mitigate global warming.     

Connolly and the never-ending critiques of liberal peace: from the privilege of difference to vorarephilia

Over the last decade, a dominant critique of international interventions underlines the problem that interventionary strategies have denied the political, societal and cultural heterogeneity of conflict-affected societies, excluding the interests of the majority of their population. A deeper engagement with the everyday life of these societies is understood to expose the errors of international missions and animate an alternative way of thinking about peace: ‘hybrid peace’, which is formed contextually and from below. Engaging with William Connolly’s work on pluralism, this article clarifies the nature of this critique, which rests securely on the assumption that local alterity cannot be fully understood, respected or treated sensitively by international governance approaches. However, as much as this assumption enables the thinking of an emancipatory hybrid peace, it is in turn the source of its critique, as hybrid peace is also seen as reproducing binary schemas and thus considered incapable of caring for the societies intervened in. At the conclusion, the metaphor of vorarephilia—paraphilia where sexual arousal occurs in the idea of being eaten or eating another person—will be used to warn against the tragic direction that critiques seem to be travelling to: critical scholars would be increasingly tempted to welcome the inevitable failures of international interventions.     

阿富汗变局后的中亚安全:大国博弈与地区合作

阿富汗与中亚有着非常密切的历史文化联系,同时阿富汗问题对中亚安全构成了直接威胁.随着2021年美国仓促撤军、塔利班重新夺取政权,中亚战略地位的特殊性引发大国为争夺地区安全和经济主导权展开新一轮地缘政治竞争,中亚地区的和平与稳定又遭遇新的挑战.本文通过对新形势下中亚地区安全的新特征、新变化的梳理和分析,发现阿富汗变局后中...     

全球化进程中的澳大利亚民族文化问题探讨

作为亚太地区一个重要的国家,澳大利亚因其丰富的资源和重要的战略地位受到了越来越多的关注。二战以来,随着全球化进程加快所带来的跨国移民趋势加强和经济区域化发展,促进了澳大利亚的民族文化由"单一的盎格鲁—凯尔特文化"向"多样性文化"的转变。这一转变一方面加快了澳大利亚政府积极构建多元化社会的步伐,另一方面使澳大利亚对自身的国家身份和归属进行重新定位。本文主要关注在全球化进程中澳大利亚民族特性的转变,并进一步分析这一转变对重新定位澳大利亚国家身份和归属的影响。     

Sino-U.S. Relations in the New Century

On September 21, 2005, the Deputy Secretary of the United States Robert B. Zoellick in his speech at the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations pointed out that, the United States agrees that China is taking a peacefully developing path and it＇s a successful way of opening and joining the economic globalization that ＂＇no other newly emerged power has ever taken.＂ Zoellick emphasized that the United States should ＂encourage China to be a responsible stakeholder in the international system. ＂ If both the United States and China take the strategic interest into consideration, Zoellick＇s speech will definitely have positive impact on the Sino- U.S. relations ＇future.     

Future International Trends as Predicted from International Situation of 2011

The chaos of the international strategic situation of 2011 will lead to the decline of the West,the growth of the Asia-Pacific as the global geopolitical center,the weakening of the trend towards multi-polarization,the rise of the G2 pattern in international situation,the theme of "peace and development" in addressing new challenges,and increasing importance of the "war and peace" issue.     

Amnesty,peace and reconciliation in Algeria

Amnesties constitute the most contentious issue in transitional justice processes. While largely rejected for contravening international law and being morally objectionable, political realities may sometimes force us to accept them in the interest of peace and stability. Determinations about the desirability and effectiveness of amnesties to promote peace thus need to look beyond legalistic claims, and take into account the specific political context within a country, as well as the nature of the amnesty itself. Taking the case of Algeria, where an amnesty was adopted in 2005 with the Charter for Peace and National Reconciliation, this article argues that although the amnesty can be justified partially by the fragile political context in Algeria and may contribute to reducing levels of violence in the country, its effective contribution to peace and reconciliation will be limited because it has, so far, not been accompanied by other political and economic measures necessary to bring peace and stability to the country, and because it promotes amnesia and largely ignores the plight of the victims of the war.     

德国外交“再平衡”及对中国的影响（英文）

As the European Union is mired in multiple crises, Germany has been rebalancing its diplomatic priority and attempting to maintain a precarious balance between reaping the economic rewards of globalization and simultaneously promoting European integration. This could lead to an adjustment to Germany's pragmatic China policy, for which China has to make strategic preparations.     

State Capacity,Regime Type,and Sustaining the Peace after Civil War

About half of the nations that experience civil war eventually relapse into renewed conflict within a few years after the original war ends. This observation has motivated a stream of research into the factors that affect the risk of peace failure in the aftermath of civil war. While the outcome of the previous civil war—for example, military victory versus peace agreement—structures the post-war environment in ways that affect the risk of peace failure, the capacity of the post-war state to enact and implement policies that affect the incentives for and capacity of groups to undertake armed violence as a means of advancing their interests should also affect the risks of peace failure. Using Geddes’ categories of nondemocratic regime types, we will present a theory of how different regime types have varying capacities to repress and/or implement accommodative policies that affect the risk of peace failure. We test propositions derived from this theory with a series of event history models. Our findings suggest that while peace agreements significantly increase the duration of post-civil war peace, peace agreements involving some types of nondemocratic regimes actually increase the risk of post-civil war peace failure.     

东盟区域经济一体化的新格局

在经济全球化和区域化推动下,东盟区域经济一体化发展迅速,并成为东亚地区经济一体化进程的核心力量。已经并正在形成的东盟与中、印、日、韩、澳、新自由贸易区,对东亚区域经济的整合将产生重要影响,中国应进一步调整参与战略,以应对区域经济一体化带来的机遇与挑战。